Fantasy Focus

A blogger says goodbye

2010-10-07T17:13:00.000-04:00

Well readers, this is goodbye.

I'm leaving the Herald after 5 years as an editor, page designer, and self-proclaimed fantasy expert.

It's been a pleasure to serve the community of Bradenton and everyone else out there in cyberspace with what I hope were entertaining and informative fantasy sports musings over the years.

In that time I've had a lot of ups (winning the Herald Newsroom Fantasy Football League championship last season!) and a lot of downs (multiple finishes in the bottom half of the fantasy baseball standings), but hopefully I've helped some of your teams along the way.

I'll still be out there in the Bradenton area, and still competing with my ex-Herald colleagues as long as they'll have me. And I'll still love dispensing fantasy advice and offering my two cents, so don't hesitate to ask me a question if you see me out and about. Maybe someday I'll be back out there on the World Wide Web to reclaim my fantasy guru status, but until then I bid you farewell. It's been fun.

Week 3 Sit 'Em: Eli, Greene, Wallace

2010-09-24T02:51:00.000-04:00

- ELI MANNING vs. Tennessee: The Giants' offense is predicated on establishing the run, but it hasn't really worked so far. Even though Eli's got 5 TD passes in two games, figure on New York sticking to the ground game against a Titans secondary that's allowed just one passing TD and one play over 20 yards.

- SHONN GREENE at Miami: It was good to see Shonn getting more involved (15 carries) and being more productive (52 yards) in Week 2 after Week 1's bomb. Unfortunately, he hasn't been good enough, and LaDainian Tomlinson is still lurking in the Jets backfield.

- MIKE WALLACE at Tampa Bay: It sure looks like any value Wallace will have in 2010 will have to wait until Ben Roethlisberger's return - he has just 4 catches through 2 Big Ben-less games. The Steelers spun the wheel and came up with Charlie Batch at QB this week, and the Bucs' defenders haven't been pushovers this year.

Last week's picks

- Vince Young's stat line against the Steelers: 7-for-10, 66 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, one benching. Nailed it.

- Michael Crabtree's stat line against the Saints: One catch for 32 yards. Nailed it.

- Jahvid Best's stat line against the Eagles: 78 rushing yards, 154 receiving yards, 3 total TDs. Little off. I still stand by my prediction - the kid ran for 20 yards on 14 carries a week earlier in his debut! - but clearly I underestimated him.

The Associated Press

Week 3 Start 'Em: McFadden, Moss, Favre

2010-09-23T10:24:00.002-04:00

RB DARREN McFADDEN at Arizona: It’s time to take this guy seriously again after 145 rushing yards on 30 carries last week against St. Louis. He’s the NFL’s second-leading rusher, and the this week's opponents, the Cardinals, are second-worst against the run (153.0 a game).

WR SANTANA MOSS at St. Louis: The veteran has hit it off with new QB Donovan McNabb, catching 16 passes so far. The Redskins will look to pound the ball against a soft Rams run defense, but I still see Moss doing some damage through the air.

BRETT FAVRE vs. Detroit: Favre’s thrown 51 TDs in 30 career games against the Lions. Only his own Vikings (52 TDs) and the Bears (53 TDs) have been victimized more by the man that Father Time forgot. It’s been a rough 2010 for Brett, but he returns to form this week against the Lions.

Last week’s picks

- Ahmad Bradshaw had a commendable 89 yards on 17 carries against the Colts. Not exactly Arian Foster-level production, but solid, and the good news for Bradshaw’s long-term value is teammate Brandon Jacobs carried the ball only four times and suffered a helmet-tossing, possibly trade-demanding meltdown.

- Dwayne Bowe’s 4 catches for 45 yards against the Browns weren’t quite what I had in mind but are a step in the right direction.

- Dez Bryant recorded only 2 catches against Chicago, but he made them count (52 yards) and he added a 62-yard punt return for a TD to boot.

Photo by The Associated Press

Week 3 Hot Pickups: Snelling, Thomas, Murphy

2010-09-22T17:51:00.000-04:00

1. RB JASON SNELLING, Falcons

Michael Turner (groin) says he’ll be fine for Week 3, but Snelling (186 total yards, 3 TDs) looked great in his absence and is an obvious handcuff with big-time upside.

2. WR DEMARYIUS THOMAS, Broncos

The rookie made his presence felt (8 catches, 97 yards, TD) in his first pro game last week and will be an important part of the Broncos’ air attack again this week vs. Indy.

WR LOUIS MURPHY

Murphy looks like the best wideout in Silver & Black, catching 6 balls for 91 yards and a TD vs. St. Louis. He should benefit if Bruce Gradkowski takes over at QB, as the two have some chemistry.

Week 2 Recap, Part II: Bucs worth owning

2010-09-22T11:41:00.000-04:00

-Is Josh Freeman a fantasy star? Not yet, but he and WR Mike Williams (2 TDs in first two games) are on their way. Williams has to be owned at this point, and Freeman might be a darkhorse No. 2 QB worth a spot start somewhere down the road. He's got some mouth-watering matchups with St. Louis and Arizona during bye-week time.

-Only six QBs have thrown for more than 600 yards so far this season. The first five? Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub. Ho hum. No. 6? Kyle Orton, who’s also got 3 TDs to 1 INT. Unfortunately, he’s about to run a gauntlet of Indy, Tennessee, Baltimore and the Jets in the next four weeks.

-Only two catches for Rams WR Mark Clayton, one of last week’s Hot Pickups, but both of them went for TDs. Clayton had only one other two-TD game in his career, back in 2006 with the Ravens.

-Rookie TE Aaron Hernandez (6 catches, 101 yards, TD) continues to be a big-play threat for the Patriots. The Florida product had a 45-yard catch in Week 1 and a 46-yarder in Week 2 vs. the Jets. How about a 47-yarder this week against Buffalo?

-It’s been a rocky road for rookie RB Ryan Matthews of San Diego – 25 carries for 104 yards (4.2 average) but also 2 fumbles and 1 protective boot after Sunday’s ankle injury. Mike Tolbert stepped in to carry the ball 16 times for 82 yards and 2 TDs against the Jags in Week 2 and figures to hurt Matthews’ value even more, at least in the short term.

-Arian Foster goes from 231 yards rushing in Week 1 to 69 in Week 2. Matt Schaub goes from 107 yards passing in Week 1 to 497 in Week 2. What’s the real deal for these two Texans? Probably somewhere in the middle.

-Brandon Jacobs owners would like to toss their helmets or demand a trade too after their guy’s performance (4 attempts, 8 yards) against the Colts. He’s clearly benchable this week against Tennessee and until further notice.

-I’m loving what I’m seeing out of how the Saints are using Pierre Thomas so far. He touched the ball 26 total times on Monday night, and with Reggie Bush gone for the next six weeks with a broken fibula, Thomas should have even more opportunities.

Photo by The Associated Press

Week 2 Recap, Part I: How 'bout them Cowboys?

2010-09-21T13:24:00.000-04:00

- The Cowboys are a mess. The only ones who should undoubtedly be in your lineup each week right now are Miles Austin and probably Jason Witten. Tony Romo's got just 2 TDs in two weeks, and Marion Barber and Felix Jones are afterthoughts behind a shaky offensive line.

- Michael Turner was off to a fine start against Arizona (75 yards on 8 carries) before exiting against with a groin injury. Jason Snelling (129 rushing yards, 57 receiving yards, 2 TDs) got to reap the benefits of injuries to turner and second-stringer Jerious Norwood - but I'll give you a dollar if you actually started him.

- Two games and we're still waiting for top-five pick Ray Rice to find the end zone. Problem is, the Ravens have faced two very good Ds in the Jets and Bengals. Figure Rice will have his best day so far in Week 3 vs. Cleveland.

- Todd Haley is messing with us. The Chiefs coach gave Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles an equal number of carries in Week 1, then Jones gets twice as many (22 to Charles' 11) in Week 2. That makes both of those guys a questionable play this week against San Francisco, unfortunately.

- Michael Vick bailed out those who picked him up this week with 284 yards passing and 2 TDs. Unfortunately it's now back to the bench with Kevin Kolb returning to starting duty for the Eagles. You may want to keep Vick on your bench, too, if Kolb should falter.

- Packers TE Jermichael Finley is a big play waiting to happen. Four catches for 103 yards for the big fella on Sunday, and he had one more target than both Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.

- You may want to think twice about starting your RBs against the Steelers defense after they limited both Turner (42 yards) and Chris Johnson (34 yards) in consecutive weeks. The Bucs' Cadillac Williams is up next - good luck with that.

- Just when you were about to declare Brett Favre (1 TD, 4 INTs in 2010) a bust, he gets a crack at the Lions in Week 3.

Photo by The Associated Press

Week 2 Sit 'Em: Young, Crabtree, Best

2010-09-17T11:56:00.000-04:00

QB VINCE YOUNG vs. Pittsburgh: VY gets no Heisman Trophy, and he gets no fantasy love here in Week 2. Yes the Titans QB looked good in Week 1, tossing 2 TDs, but he also attempted a mere 17 passes and finished with 154 yards. And Pittsburgh ain’t Oakland.

WR MICHAEL CRABTREE vs. New Orleans: Thought this guy was supposed to be the truth – last week’s stats (2 catches, 12 yards) must have been a misprint then. Seriously though, I still like Crabtree’s long-term potential this year, but you have to avoid him if possible this week, especially against a Saints defense that bottled up Brett Favre and the Vikings’ passing game in the opener.

RB JAHVID BEST vs. Philadelphia: Hey, Best’s 2 TDs in his first-ever NFL game were great, but if you’re expecting the same in Week 2 you’re a sucker. If you were paying attention you noticed he rushed for just 20 yards on 14 carries, a miniscule 1.4 yard average, against the Bears. There’s considerable risk here with Best if the Shaun Hill-led Lions can’t get near the goal line against a usually stout Eagles run D.

Fantasy Focus podcast: Vick's value

2010-09-17T00:47:00.000-04:00

Go here for the latest installment of the Fantasy Focus weekly podcast.

This week we're debating the fantasy values of Michael Vick, Brandon Jackson, Legedu Naanee, Reggie Bush, Ahmad Bradshaw and more.

Week 2 Start 'Em: Bradshaw, Bowe, Bryant

2010-09-16T14:00:00.002-04:00

- RB AHMAD BRADSHAW at Indianapolis: Bradshaw looked like the best runner in the Giants’ backfield Sunday, rushing 20 times for 76 yards and a TD while Brandon Jacobs mustered just 44 yards on 12 carries. Now Bradshaw gets to face a reeling Colts D that was terrorized by Arian Foster in Week 1.

- WR DWAYNE BOWE at Cleveland: His season debut was forgettable (1 catch, 14 yards), and though he was targeted only five times, that led all Chiefs receivers on what was a rainy Monday night. Bowe is still a dangerous WR1 and K.C.'s best option, and this matchup should help him prove it.

- WR DEZ BRYANT vs. Chicago: The rookie was targeted a team-high 12 times by QB Tony Romo in Week 1. Just so we're clear, that's more than Miles Austin and more than Jason Witten. There's a good chance these boys will tear up Chicago, which makes Bryant a pretty good WR2 or Flex option.

'The League' is back on TV tonight

2010-09-16T12:13:00.003-04:00

If you're a fantasy football player and have a sense of humor, you owe it to yourself to check out the comedy "The League," which premieres its second season at 10:30 tonight on FX.

It's a pretty hilarious, somewhat true-to-life look at a bunch of guys competing in a fantasy football league. There's a good chance you'll see someone you recognize from your own league represented on screen, from the guy who traded for Plaxico Burress last season without realizing he was in jail, to the guy who has a personal vendetta against Antonio Gates for knocking him out of the playoffs (and then actually runs into Gates at a day spa, and hilarity ensues).

I have to warn you the show is "iffy" for viewers younger than 16, as my TV likes to remind me, but other than that I highly recommend it.

Worried about Randy Moss?

2010-09-16T00:40:00.001-04:00

You drafted Randy Moss in the first round.

Then he goes out and catches 5 balls for 59 yards and 0 TDs in the Pats' Week 1 rout of the Bengals.

OK, you can live with that, I suppose. Not what you want out of your top wideout, but not unforgivable.

Then, after the game, Moss starts yapping about his unhappiness with his contract situation.

Uh oh. If you remember his days as a Raider, you know an unhappy Moss can be an unproductive Moss. The mercurial wideout has said you won't hear another peep out of him on the subject this year, though, and he's happy to be a Patriot and is "still going to play some football."

That's reassuring. Only problem: this week the Pats face the Jets, and that means Moss can expect a heavy dose of his new nemesis, Darrelle Revis. New York plans to match up its lockdown cornerback exclusively with Moss, who was held to a total of 9 catches and 58 yards (and 1 TD) in two trips to Revis Island last year.

In other words, expect another so-so showing from your best wideout this week.

Things should get better after that, especially with a tasty matchup with Buffalo looming in Week 3, but until then it could be a rough couple weeks for Moss supporters.

Photo by The Associated Press

Hot Pickups, Week 2: Jackson, Vick, Clayton

2010-09-15T11:31:00.002-04:00

1. RB BRANDON JACKSON, Packers

Fourth-year understudy gets his chance with starter Ryan Grant (ankle) lost for the season. Jackson has won his coaches' confidence and should be ready to roll vs. Buffalo.

2. QB MICHAEL VICK, Eagles

Assuming Kevin Kolb's concussion keeps him out, Vick's legs (103 rushing yards in Week 1) make him valuable against the Lions in relief.

3. WR MARK CLAYTON, Rams

Former Ravens underachiever had a career-high 10 catches in his 2010 debut, and with Sam Bradford slinging it so much (55 attempts), there should be more.

Week 1 Recap, Part II: Kolb toast?

2010-09-15T00:18:00.002-04:00

- So much for Kevin Kolb’s big debut as the official Eagles starting QB (5-for-10, 25 yards, concussion). I’m not ready to declare him a fantasy bust, but hopefully you already recognized the risks with a largely untested QB and have a capable backup ready. If not, it might be time to look Michael Vick’s way.

- Running to the waiver wire to get Jaguars TE Marcedes Lewis? Not so fast. Sure, he had two catches, both for TDs. But this is also the same guy whose career high for TDs in a season is two, and who didn’t catch more than 4 passes in a game last year. Maybe he’s worth a grab, but temper your expectations.

- Sam Bradford sure aired it out in his first pro game (55 attempts). But he connected on just 32 of those (4.6 yards per completion), threw 1 TD and 3 picks, and finished with a 53.1 QB rating. He’s not a fantasy option at this point.

- Good luck making sense of the Seahawks’ backfield rotation. Justin Forsett was the most impressive (7 carries for 43 yards, 6.1 average), but Julius Jones and Leon Washington each had 1 more carry apiece. You’ll want to avoid this situation until it gets a little less murky.

- Remember all the hullabaloo about Redskins TE Fred Davis being a fantasy sleeper this year? Davis wasn't even targeted on Sunday night, but starter Chris Cooley caught 6 passes for 80 yards to lead all Skins receivers. Cooley could be in line for a big year if he stays healthy and the synergy with Donovan McNabb continues.

- OK, maybe LaDainian Tomlinson's got some fantasy life left in him (11 carries, 62 yards). But you have to figure Shonn Greene can't be that miserable again (5 carries, 18 yards, a fumble, a dropped pass and a second-half benching). That wasn't how Gang Green drew it up.

- Legedu Naanee had the nicer stat line Monday among Chargers WRs (5 catches, 110 yards, TD), but it was actually Malcom Floyd (3-48) that was targeted a team-high 12 times to Naanee's eight, including three of San Diego's four shots at the end zone on a 1st-and-goal series to end the game. Read into that what you will.

- Saints RB Pierre Thomas might have tough sledding against the 49ers' D this week, but it was good to see him get the lion's share of the carries (19 of the team's 25 rush attempts) as New Orleans pounded the rock last Thursday against the Vikings. That equaled his season high from last year, which came in Week 4.

Photo by The Associated Press

Who's buried in Grant's tomb? Brandon Jackson

2010-09-14T18:23:00.000-04:00

OK, maybe the title of this blog post is a little misleading. Ryan Grant is not dead. He's just dead to me and the rest of his fantasy owners.

Grant is out for the year, FOXSports.com reports, after suffering an ankle injury that didn't look that terrible on Sunday against the Eagles. But it's still a terrible blow for anyone who made Grant their No. 1 RB or took him in the first or second round this year (yours truly included).

The obvious replacement is Brandon Jackson, Grant's backup, who carried the ball 18 times for 63 yards in relief of Grant on Sunday. Jackson does have the backing of head coach Mike McCarthy, who believes Jackson can be an every-down back. The fourth-year RB was actually once considered for the Packers' starting job as a rookie in 2007 before injuries and ineffectiveness eventually caused him to lose out to Grant. But he's improved since then and had time to learn the system.

Jackson's a little smaller than Grant but may be a better receiver (2 receptions for 12 yards on Sunday), and in Green Bay's offense he has a chance to at least be a 1,000-yard rusher. I've never considered Grant a supremely skilled guy to begin with; most of his value came from the consistent number of carries he's received and the benefits of the great passing game around him. Slot Jackson into that role and the production shouldn't suffer all that much, provided Jackson's up to the task.

Photo by The Associated Press

Week 1 Recap, Part I: Foster's for real

2010-09-14T13:18:00.002-04:00

A few musings from Week 1's action while I thank the football gods for DirecTV's NFL Sunday Ticket free preview:

- Welcome to fantasy stardom, Arian Foster (231 yards, 3 TDs). We’re waiting with baited breath to see what you do in Week 2.

- Somebody slow down the C.J. Spiller bandwagon. Seven carries for 6 yards isn’t going to cut it as a fantasy star yet.

- For those who were wondering who would be Mike Martz’s most utilized wideout in Chicago (Devin Hester? Johnny Knox? Devin Aromashodu)?), the surprising answer was his RB, Matt Forte, who led the team with 7 catches for a whopping 151 yards and 2 TDs. The other three combined for 9 receptions.

- Roll on, Chris Johnson (27 carries, 142 yards, 2 TDs).

- Guess Wes Welker is OK – 11 targets, 8 catches, 2 TDs. Those who got him at a discount price this year because of the injury concerns have to be smiling right about now, especially with the Jets up next on the Pats’ schedule. In his last four games vs. Gang Green, the Welk Man has averaged 7 catches for 92 yards.

- Giants WR Hakeem Nicks established himself as a fantasy force with 3 TDs against Carolina. Granted, he only had 4 catches, but Eli Manning targeted him 8 times, as many as Steve Smith.

- Roddy White’s stat line against Pittsburgh was strong (13 catches, 111 yards), but the most eye-opening number was the whopping 23 targets. With those kind of looks he could demolish Arizona this week.

- Could Peyton Hillis be a factor in the Browns’ backfield? Sure, given the fact he had 9 carries (as many as starter Jerome Harrison) and also scored a TD.

Week 1 Sit 'Em: Owens, Mason, Jackson

2010-09-10T01:37:00.001-04:00

- TERRELL OWENS at Patriots: T.O. hasn't fared well historically against New England. In four career meetings with the Pats he's averaged just 48 yards a game, his third fewest against any opponent - and he's played 'em all. Sure, this year's Pats' secondary is largely untested, and the Bengals will probably want to feed T.O. enough passes to keep him happy, but I just have a hard time believing he'll be a consistent performer anymore. I'm not getting any popcorn ready this week.

- DERRICK MASON at Jets: T.J. Houshmandzadeh's arrival in Baltimore is bad news for Mason. Now Ravens QB Joe Flacco has two aging possession receivers to choose from. There's a decent chance they'll consistently cancel each other out for fantasy purposes, and that's not even mentioning the arrival of big-ticket WR import Anquan Boldin. Mason has gone from undervalued fantasy commodity to a risky play. Factor in the possibility of Mason spending some time on Revis Island this weekend, and he has to stay on your bench until further notice.

- FRED JACKSON vs. Dolphins: I happen to like Freddie Jax a lot, but this isn't the week to use him. Not with Jackson still nursing a broken hand that cost him a month of the preseason and with rookie C.J. Spiller being named the starter. Jackson might have some fantasy value this year, but this isn't the week.

Photo by The Associated Press

Week 1 Start 'Em: Harvin, Forte, Wells

2010-09-09T02:10:00.002-04:00

It’s time once again for the Fantasy Focus weekly features, Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em. The concept is pretty simple: Each week, in preparation for that Sunday’s action, I’ll offer three guys I recommend for your starting lineup, then three guys I think you should stay away from.

I’m not going to waste your time, or mine, by telling you to start Peyton Manning and sit Sam Bradford. Duh. Instead I’ll be focusing on borderline guys, backups, flex players – because that’s where fantasy matchups are won or lost.

Just to keep me honest, I’ll also check in on my previous week’s picks so you can track my recommendations and hold me to them. Sound good? Alright, then here we go:

- PERCY HARVIN at Saints: Harvin says his doctors have found the cause of the debilitating migraines that have plagued him for years and put his 2010 season in jeopardy. The Vikings aren't sharing this medical breakthrough with the millions of other migraine sufferers, but I guess we can let that slide if Harvin can contribute to our fantasy teams. The Vikes seem to have no doubt that will be the case, as they traded away kick returner Darius Reynaud to give the job to Harvin. Minnesota would be wise to go to Harvin early and often with Sidney Rice on the shelf. He's an optimal flex play this week.

- MATT FORTE vs. Lions: If only Forte could've played Detroit 16 times last year. The Bears RB only cracked the 100-yard mark twice in an otherwise dismal 2009, but both came against the Lions: 121 yards and a TD in Week 4, 101 yards in Week 17. I'm not totally sold on a Forte comeback in 2010, but this is one week I'm buying.

- BEANIE WELLS vs. Rams: I'm still not sure how coach Ken Whisenhunt envisions splitting up the work this year between Cardinals RBs Beanie and Tim Hightower. But with Derek Anderson piloting the offense (yikes!) I expect to see a heavy workload for Wells. In his two meetings with St. Louis last year, Beanie ran for 74 yards and a TD and 64 yards and a TD, so we could very well see a repeat.

Week 1 Hot Pickups: Williams, Gaffney, Taylor

2010-09-08T17:57:00.001-04:00

1. WR MIKE WILLIAMS, Seahawks

Former Southern Cal bust is reunited with old coach Pete Carroll and sits atop Seattle’s depth chart with T.J. Houshmandzadeh gone. Grab and observe.

2. WR JABAR GAFFNEY, Broncos

He’s probably not a true NFL No. 1 WR, but he’s the best Denver’s got in Week 1. And he had 14 catches for 213 yards in his last regular season game.

3. RB FRED TAYLOR, Patriots

You never know what New England will do with its backfield, but formerly fragile Fred, age 34, will never be fresher this season than he is right now.

Photo by The Associated Press

What roster cuts mean to you

2010-09-08T00:10:00.001-04:00

The finalization of NFL rosters creates a number of new questions for fantasy fans to ponder.

How does T.J. Houshmandzadeh's relocation to Baltimore affect his fantasy value? Is the RB situation in Washington any clearer? Is there a new dark horse RB to watch in Denver?

Get the answers to these burning questions and more in this week's edition of the Herald's Fantasy Focus podcast.

Lamenting a lost league

2010-09-06T14:57:00.000-04:00

This will be the first season in at least 8 or 9 years that my dad and I won't be sharing a fantasy football team.

The tradition started back when I was in college. Dad got invited to join a league run by some of his younger colleagues at his office back in New Jersey, where he's a supervisor. Dad's always been a big football fan - a standout prep player in his day and a lifelong Giants fan, he taught me most of what I know about the game, and even a little on how to bet on it - but he wanted my help with picking the team. So we came to an agreement: He'd front the league entry fee, and I'd handle the draft and weekly lineup, acting as a kind of GM. And thus, Ace in the Hole was born.

Now, this was no run-of-the mill fantasy league. First off, the yearly league entry fee has always been at least $100, plus anywhere from $2 to $5 for every transaction. And instead of just a 10-team league, it was actually set up with TWO divisions of 10 teams apiece, with the two division champs ultimately meeting in the fantasy super bowl. The divisions (in reference to Dad, we were placed in the "Old People" division, as opposed to "Young People") each held separate drafts, so the same players could be owned in both. You'd play all the teams in your division during the season, but you'd also face some cross-divisional opponents as well, which always led to some interesting dilemmas. For instance, you might own Priest Holmes but end up facing another team that had Holmes in its starting lineup. Would you start Holmes as well in the hopes of canceling each other out? Or would you risk starting some other running back in his place in the hopes of outscoring the "other" Holmes?

The drafts were always a good time. They were usually held on a Friday night in late August at somebody's house, with the "Young People" set up in folding chairs in the backyard and the "Old People" huddled around a converted poker table inside enjoying the AC. The beer flowed freely from a keg, and some of Central Jersey's finest cuisine, from tomato pie to hoagies to wings, was on the menu.

In our first couple years of competing I was able to attend with Dad, with draft day coming before I went back to college to start the semester. But in subsequent years, when the real world called and I held newspaper jobs that kept me in the office on Friday nights, I had to draft long distance, with Dad attending in person to make the picks and me strategizing with him via cell phone. I spent many a Friday night with one eye on my work on the computer screen (my editors will love reading this) and another on our cheat sheet, with my right earlobe and my cell phone minutes burning up. A couple years ago I even picked the whole team on the phone while on a 7-hour road trip from Columbus, Ga., to Bradenton, much to the delight of the other four people trapped in the minivan with me.

There are a lot of other fond, and not-so-fond, memories that stick out from Ace in the Hole's existence. Like the time we only needed one stinking catch from Shannon Sharpe on a Monday Night Football game to clinch a fantasy playoff spot and didn't get it (we still haven't forgiven him). Or the time Daunte Culpepper's awesome 39-TD season in 2004 led us to the postseason; we had him again in 2005 and his injury-plagued debacle that year destroyed us.

I'll always remember the guys who played well for us (Tiki Barber, Mike Alstott) and the guys who didn't (LaMont Jordan, Matt Forte). And I won't forget the Sunday afternoons when Dad and I would call each other to rejoice over those guys or curse them out. We're both men of few words, so Ace in the Hole always gave us something easy to talk about and helped us stay in touch, especially these past few years with me living in Florida and him back in the Garden State.

Dad decided to pull the plug on Ace in the Hole this year. He wasn't really thrilled about fronting the entry fee, economic times being as they are. Maybe it would have helped if we made the playoffs more than the few times we did over the years and at least won our money back. But also, the sad truth is most of the guys he worked with and made up our league over the years got laid off when Dad's company went through some massive downsizing and outsourcing recently. Much of the enjoyment he got from being in the league came from ragging on those guys during the week around the office, telling them his kid was going to build a championship team that would kick their butts. Now most of those guys aren't around anymore, and a lot of them dropped out of the league too.

I'll still play in other leagues of course, but I don't think it can ever be the same. If you're in one this great, enjoy it. If you share a team with your dad or your son, cherish it while it lasts.

I know I do.

2010 preview in Sunday's Herald

2010-09-05T00:32:00.000-04:00

You can find my 2010 Fantasy Football preview in the sports section of Sunday's edition of the Herald.

Herald readers can also look for my weekly Hot Pickups in print throughout the season.

Hard times for Hardesty owners

2010-09-03T14:26:00.002-04:00

Montario Hardesty was a popular sleeper entering 2010. Unfortunately, he won't have a chance to awaken this year after suffering an ACL tear that will cost him his rookie season.

Hardesty, taken by the Browns in the second round out of Tennessee, had a chance to be the primary runner for Cleveland this year. Instead, that part is now likely be played by Jerome Harrison, whom you may recall from a blistering three-game run last season. In Weeks 15-17, Harrison rushed for 561 yards and 5 TDs and helped a lot of lucky owners win fantasy championships. Granted, he did his damage in meaningless games against the Chiefs, Raiders and Jaguars - not exactly three defensive powerhouses - and the Browns still felt compelled to go out and spend a high pick on another RB in the spring.

That being said, Harrison has a shot to prove he's not a fluke, and he's definitely someone to target if he hasn't already been claimed in your league. He's a solid receiver, too, and he should get first crack at being the Browns' feature back, with Peyton Hillis and James Davis waiting in the wings if he's not up to the task.

Matt Leinart out, Derek Anderson in?

2010-09-02T02:24:00.001-04:00

Matt Leinart's out in Arizona. Derek Anderson's in.

At least that's the early indication from Cardinals camp, with reports surfacing that Leinart is on the trading block after failing to grab the starting QB job.

Leinart wasn't a very intriguing fantasy prospect this year thanks to some poor showings in preseason action and an ongoing clash with head coach Ken Whisenhunt. The former USC party guy has had multiple chances to prove he's the Cardinals' answer at QB but failed. Leinart's only fantasy appeal came from the fact he'd be throwing to All-Pro talent Larry Fitzgerald and a few other solid receivers in Arizona. But with Leinart on the trading block - and facing the possibility of being cut by Saturday - it's looking like he'll end up riding the pine somewhere else to start 2010.

That leads us to the Cardinals' next best option at QB, Anderson, a man last seen getting run out of town in Cleveland. Think about that for a second. CLEVELAND didn't want him! That's how bad Anderson was last year (3 TDs, 10 INTs, 42.1 QB rating) and in 2008 (9 TDs, 8 INTs, 66.5 rating). But it's easy to forget DA had an improbable Pro Bowl season in 2008 with the Browns, when he threw for more than 3,700 yards and 29 TDs with 19 INTs. He also helped WR Braylon Edwards join him on the AFC Pro Bowl squad and led Cleveland to a 10-6 record.

Alright, so he's no Bernie Kosar. Derek Anderson isn't even Ken Anderson. But maybe DA still has a few tricks up his sleeve and could come close to reproducing those '07 stats. Having Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston, Early Doucet, Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells around him will help. Do I think you need to run out and add Anderson to your team? Not so fast. The situation in Arizona is still too volatile. But Anderson's somebody to keep tabs on and possibly consider at the first sign of trouble if you're in the market for a fantasy No. 2.

Derrick Ward sent packing

2010-08-31T22:26:00.000-04:00

Hope you didn't draft Derrick Ward this year.

At least not if you figured he'd be a factor with the Tampa Bay Bucs, who cut Ward on Tuesday, one year after signing him to a four-year, $17.5 million contract. It's also two years after he rushed for more than 1,000 yards with the New York Giants.

The writing was on the wall for Ward, who failed to impress last year or this preseason and whose release will only cost the Bucs about $3 million this year. He was outplayed in 2010 by Kareem Huggins, a 24-year-old Hofstra product who didn't get a carry last year as a rookie with the Bucs but who should be Cadillac Williams' backup on Week 1. And if you know anything about Caddy's injury history, you know that Huggins is just a snapped tendon away from being Tampa Bay's starting tailback. Both Williams and Huggins should be moved up on your draft board accordingly.

As for Ward, I suppose he's still worth keeping tabs on, depending on where he ends up, as the season progresses. Granted, he's 30 and came to Bucs camp out of shape ... but Ward doesn't have a lot of mileage on him for a back his age after spending much of his career as a practice-squad player/third-stringer. He proved what he can do as a change-of-pace back when paired with Brandon Jacobs in '07. I could see him being a fantasy factor later this season if he lands in the right situation, but for now he's not worth a roster spot in all but the deepest of leagues.

Photo by The Associated Press

Draft recap: How my team looks

2010-08-31T12:05:00.000-04:00

We held the 5th annual Newsroom Fantasy League draft over the weekend at Buffalo Wild Wings (highly recommend their draft party deal, by the way). We expanded from 10 to 12 teams this year, and by random draw I ended up with the 10th overall pick. I'm also the defending champion.

We have to carry 2 QBs, 4 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs, 2 Ks and 2 D/ST. Regular scoring rules and a snake draft.

Here's how my squad turned out, with round of selection in parentheses and commentary below:

JERSEY SURE

QB Tony Romo (3)
QB Chad Henne (11)

RB Ryan Grant (2)
RB Felix Jones (4)
RB Marion Barber (6)
RB Donald Brown (8)

WR Randy Moss (1)
WR Hakeem Nicks (5)
WR Mike Wallace (7)
WR Mike Williams (9)

TE Owen Daniels (10)
TE John Carlson (14)

K Ryan Longwell (13)
K Matt Bryant (16)

DEF Steelers (12)
DEF Browns (15)

Chose Randy Moss over Steven Jackson with my first pick at No. 10 overall. The running backs were flying off the board and S-Jax was probably a good value at that point, but I just don't have a good feeling about him this year.

Wasn't planning to have so many Cowboys on my team, but that's the way it worked out. I had to go RB with my second pick (Ryan Grant) and then sweat it out until the third round to grab the last elite QB (Tony Romo) left. That made Felix Jones a little more appealing to me as my second RB, and Marion Barber was the best remaining RB in Round 6. I'm very aware of the Cowboys' offensive struggles this preseason, thank you.

I could tell I was a little higher on my WRs than the rest of the league. I got Hakeem Nicks in the fifth round and Mike Wallace in the seventh, and I believe they can both produce like solid WR2s.

Mike Williams of the Bucs was kind of a sleeper in the ninth round. Ditto for Donald Brown in the eighth as my RB4 - he was the one remaining back that offered the most upside if his team's No. 1 (Joseph Addai) were to miss any time.

A little concerned about my No. 1 TE (Owen Daniels) since he's coming off a torn ACL and he could be questionable for Week 1 of the regular season. But I decided to wait on a TE until the 10th round after some of the others I was targeting (Brent Celek, Zach Miller) were swiped from me. But I still think Daniels offers huge upside if he can put the injury behind him, and I feel like I have a solid, top-15 backup (John Carlson) as insurance.

I have Ryan Longwell as the No. 2 kicker on my board but I believe he was the fifth one taken. Matt Bryant is just a flier since he'll kick in a dome in Atlanta for a decent offense.

Defenses are a crapshoot, but the Steelers are usually a safe pick. I don't particularly like the Browns, but I do like the idea of Josh Cribbs returning kicks.

8/28 Sleeper of the Day: Arian Foster

2010-08-28T03:12:00.001-04:00

RB ARIAN FOSTER, Texans

I see this guy as an ideal RB3. He's got the potential to be a steal, but if he falls flat on his face it won't absolutely kill you.

Foster, a rookie in 2009, didn't get a carry until mid-December, and it wasn't until a few games later that he really got rolling. Then he couldn't be stopped. He rumbled for 97 yards and a TD on 19 carries in Week 16 against Miami, then sliced up the Patriots for 119 yards and 2 TDs on 20 carries in Week 17.

The Texans had been searching for a ground game all year behind a disappointing rotation of Chris Brown, Ryan Moats and major fantasy bust Steve Slaton, and Foster was arguably their most effective back, the only one to average more than 4 yards a carry. Yet Houston decided to go out and draft big Ben Tate from Auburn in the second round to compete for a starting position.

The good news for Foster is Tate suffered a season-ending ankle injury this preseason, so the job is his to lose. He's shown he can compete at the NFL level, but since those big performances came during the traditional fantasy playoffs and/or championship week last year, a lot of owners might not have noticed them. Couple that with the heavy preseason touting of Tate by a lot of publications, and you a have a recipe for a fantasy sleeper. Start looking for Foster in the fifth or sixth round.

Photo by The Associated Press

8/27 Bust of the Day: Chad Ochocinco

2010-08-27T19:22:00.003-04:00

I'm torn over everybody's favorite reality star. On one hand, it's almost hard to take him seriously as a football player because of all the Twittering and self-promoting off the field and silliness on it. He's also 32 years old and appears to be past his prime, when he was catching 90-plus passes a year with regularity.

On the other hand, Ocho did have 72 receptions, 1,047 yards and 9 TDs in 2009, numbers that are nothing to sniff at and which represented a bounce-back year for him. The flip side is that 2008 was a real clunker - 53 catches, 540 yards (10.2 yards a reception) and just 4 TDs.

So what can we expect this year? Ocho's still the Bengals' No. 1 option, but his supporting cast is much improved with the additions of Terrell Owens, Antonio Bryant and rookie Jordan Shipley. Can QB Carson Palmer keep them all happy? Will Palmer's arm hold up all year? Or will Cincinnati lean on workhorse back Cedric Benson?

My gut tells me Ochocinco still has some life left in him, his rapport with Palmer will still be there, and the addition of T.O., while a potential headache-inducer, will also loosen up some coverages. I think he'll have fantasy value. But I believe people will overpay for him on draft day because of his name and past reputation alone. He's being selected, on average, as the 15th WR off the board in ESPN leagues right now, which sounds OK, but I wouldn't go any higher than that. I could see younger wideouts like Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace, Pierre Garcon or Michael Crabtree outperforming him, or at least equaling his best-case-scenario stats, while coming at a lower price.

Ochocinco's a low-end No. 2 for me, and a risky one at that.

National nightmare: Strasburg needs Tommy John surgery

2010-08-27T12:28:00.001-04:00

Stephen Strasburg likely needs Tommy John surgery.

That's a terrible blow to the Washington Nationals' franchise pitcher and to the game of baseball, who counted Strasburg as its most electrifying rookie in recent memory.

It's also a killer for fantasy owners who were counting on Strasburg to be their savior during the stretch run of the season. And even if you aren't close to contending for a championship in 2010, you may have at least been looking forward to keeping Strasburg and building your squad around him next year. Unfortunately, TJ surgery comes with at least a 12- to 18-month recovery process, meaning Strasburg won't be available until 2012.

We saw red flags when the phenom had a DL stint a month ago with shoulder inflammation. Then he came back, made three starts, got pulled from Saturday's game against Philadelphia, and the rest is history. If you were able to capitalize on all the hype and trade Strasburg at his peak value, good for you. If not, I'm sorry.

All we're left with is some impressive 2010 stats (5-3, 2.91 ERA, 92 strikeouts in 68 innings) and the hope that he'll someday realize his potential. Tommy John surgery isn't a death sentence for a career - current aces Chris Carpenter, Francisco Liriano and Josh Johnson have all made successful recoveries in recent years. But all those comebacks took time, and that's what Strasburg needs right now.

Good luck, kid.

Photo by The Associated Press

2010 TE Rankings

2010-08-27T03:18:00.004-04:00

The tight end position is deeper than ever. Long gone are the days of praying for Shannon Sharpe or getting stuck with somebody who spends most of his time blocking.

Sure, you had Dallas Clark (100 catches, 1,106 yards) and Vernon Davis (13 TDs) putting up WR-caliber numbers last year, but if you miss out on the top couple guys, all is not lost. Check this out: In 2009, eight TEs had 800 or more yards, and 11 had six or more TDs. In 2008, there were five and five, respectively. In 2007? Four and seven. Feel me?

The TE ranks are loaded, so you should adjust your draft strategy accordingly. You can grab one of the top-tier guys starting around Round 5 if the big WRs are off the board, or you can wait out a run on TEs not suffer that much of a drop-off.

As you peruse my rankings you'll notice a few things:

I put young guns Jermichael Finley and Brent Celek in the top five, at the expense of stalwarts like Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten. I just think they both have more upside, but I'd be content with just about everyone in the top 11 as my starter.

It'll be interesting to see how the Chris Cooley/Fred Davis pass distribution works out with Donovan McNabb taking over as QB in Washington. Those guys could hurt each other, or one could emerge as a top-10 fantasy TE. We'll just have to wait and see.

You'll notice I'm not too high on Greg Olsen, who I tabbed as one of my busts a few weeks back. Mike Martz won't do any favors for his fantasy value.

Remember when Jeremy Shockey was among the cream of the crop? If the guy could stay off the trainer's table, he might still be there. But even if he can't play 16 games, he'll get enough good looks in New Orleans to be a solid fantasy backup.

Looking for a really deep sleeper? How about Jared Cook in Tennessee? He had a rough rookie year (9 catches, ankle injury, residence in coaches' doghouse), but he's 6-foot-5 and 242 pounds with 4.4 speed, for gosh sakes, he's only got Bo Scaife ahead of him on the Titans depth chart. He could do something.

1. Antonio Gates
2. Dallas Clark
3. Jermichael Finley
4. Brent Celek
5. Vernon Davis
6. Tony Gonzalez
7. Jason Witten
8. Zach Miller
9. Visanthe Shiancoe
10. Kellen Winslow II
11. Owen Daniels
12. Chris Cooley
13. Heath Miller
14. John Carlson
15. Kevin Boss
16. Greg Olsen
17. Dustin Keller
18. Jeremy Shockey
19. Tony Scheffler
20. Fred Davis
21. Anthony Fasano
22. Todd Heap
23. Marcedes Lewis
24. Ben Watson
25. Bo Scaife
26. Jermaine Gresham
27. Brandon Pettigrew
28. Aaron Hernandez
29. Jared Cook
30. Shawn Nelson

Photo by The Associated Press

8/26 Sleeper of the Day: Mike Bell

2010-08-26T03:02:00.001-04:00

RB MIKE BELL, Eagles

Here's an offseason move that flew under the radar. Bell signed a 1-year, $1.7 million deal with Philly after compiling 654 yards and 5 TDs for the Super Bowl champion Saints. He began the year as a feature back in New Orleans, running for 143 yards on 28 carries in Week 1, but after that he settled into a rotation with Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush.

Meanwhile, in Philadelphia last year, Brian Westbrook got hurt, rookie LeSean McCoy had some growing pains, and the Eagles were forced to give fullback Leonard Weaver a career-high 70 carries in an attempt to solve their short-yardage woes.

Fast-forward a year and Westbrook's gone, McCoy's the No. 1 back and Bell was brought in to back him up and handle some of those short-yardage/goal-line duties. With McCoy still getting his feet wet in the NFL and largely untested Kevin Kolb taking over at QB, I can foresee Bell getting a good amount of work this year, especially in the red zone. At 220 pounds he's a power runner and a good complement to McCoy's skill set, and though the Eagles aren't a run-heavy team, Bell will have his fair share of opportunity. He'll make a sneaky good fill-out-your-roster RB at the end of your draft and a great insurance policy for McCoy owners.

8/25 Bust of the Day: C.J. Spiller

2010-08-25T03:16:00.004-04:00

RB C.J. SPILLER, Bills

Fantasy geeks are going ga-ga over Spiller this preseason, and I can't say I blame them. If you've seen the speedster play at Clemson, caught the preseason highlight in the video above, or heard the news about fellow Buffalo backs Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson being injured, there's much to be excited about.

I don't doubt that Spiller has the talent to be a future NFL star, and I believe he'll be a worthwhile fantasy choice this year. I'm just cautioning that the rookie deserves to be an RB3 at the start of the year, no higher. Yes he's got a chance to be Buffalo's No. 1 back in Week 1 - but it's Buffalo! The offensive line was terrible last year and the QB play was subpar, and they've done next to nothing to improve either in 2010. The versatile Jackson did manage a 1,000-yard rushing total last year with the Bills, but is Spiller ready to take on that kind of workhorse role? He was originally slotted in as a "hybrid" player, a change-of-pace back, and he may still play that role when Jackson returns somewhere by Week 2. But I question whether new Bills head man Chan Gailey (who hasn't been an NFL head coach since 1999) even knows what he's doing here and will be able to maximize Spiller's potential.

Again, I believe in the talent, but I can't elevate Spiller to being a top-20 RB yet. I like him as a No. 3, but even then I'd be more inclined to take another rookie runner, Jahvid Best, a Spiller clone who has a better supporting cast around him in Detroit.

2010 RB Rankings

2010-08-24T12:45:00.000-04:00

2010 RUNNING BACK RANKINGS

This year's top four are more or less no-brainers for me, but then you'll spot a few surprises. I have Frank Gore of the run-heavy 49ers, the rejuvenated Michael Turner and the always dangerous Steven Jackson in the next tier of runners. I do have my annual concerns about S-Jax, who still has a weak supporting cast around him.

Next up are a few feature backs I expect to see a ton of carries, Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Grant, and a surprise at No. 10, Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs. The breakout star of the second half of 2009 is going a lot later than many of the other backs on this list. but I believe he has the talent to produce like a top-10 RB.

I have Arian Foster ranked higher than many other experts, but with the season-ending injury to Ben Tate and the Texans' glaring need for a feature back, I think the rookie has a real opportunity in 2010.

You may also be surprised to see Michael Bush ahead of Reggie Bush, and I don't know if that says more about how much I like Michael or how much I dislike Reggie this year. Either way, I think they're best suited to be No. 4 fantasy backs in most leagues. Move Reggie up a bit in PPR leagues, of course.

I'm pretty high on Ahmad Bradshaw this year because I like his talent, I believe he's healthy, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him outperform Brandon Jacobs this year for the Giants.

I don't believe the Cardinals will be stubborn enough to favor Tim Hightower over Beanie Wells for the majority of 2010, and I've ranked the two players accordingly.

Looking for a deep, deep sleeper? The camp reports haven't been great and he's battling a shoulder injury, but I'm a fan of Steelers rookie Jonathan Dwyer. It might take him a year, but I think he can evolve into a good goal-line back. Stay tuned.

1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Ray Rice
5. Frank Gore
6. Michael Turner
7. Steven Jackson
8. Rashard Mendenhall
9. Ryan Grant
10. Jamaal Charles
11. Cedric Benson
12. DeAngelo Williams
13. Ryan Matthews
14. Shonn Greene
15. Beanie Wells
16. Knowshon Moreno
17. Pierre Thomas
18. Jonathan Stewart
19. Felix Jones
20. Ronnie Brown
21. LeSean McCoy
22. Joseph Addai
23. Arian Foster
24. Brandon Jacobs
25. Justin Forsett
26. Matt Forte
27. Ricky Williams
28. Jahvid Best
29. C.J. Spiller
30. Marion Barber
31. Ahmad Bradshaw
32. Jerome Harrison
33. Clinton Portis
34. Michael Bush
35. Reggie Bush
36. Donald Brown
37. Fred Jackson
38. Cadillac Williams
39. Thomas Jones
40. LaDainian Tomlinson
41. Darren Sproles
42. Darren McFadden
43. Montario Hardesty
44. Tim Hightower
45. Steve Slaton
46. Chester Taylor
47. Laurence Maroney
48. Willis McGahee
49. Correll Buckhalter
50. Kevin Smith
51. Anthony Dixon
52. Mike Bell
53. Fred Taylor
54. Rashad Jennings
55. Toby Gerhart
56. Larry Johnson
57. Tashard Choice
58. Bernard Scott
59. Leon Washington
60. Jonathan Dwyer

8/24 Sleeper of the Day: Mike Williams

2010-08-24T00:27:00.001-04:00

WR MIKE WILLIAMS, Buccaneers

The Bucs are desperate for some playmakers. Why not this kid?

Williams has been a revelation in training camp so far, starring in two preseason games and already capturing a starting job at split end. He’s easily been the most impressive Bucs wideout in a group that includes vets Michael Clayton, Maurice Stovall, Reggie Brown and Sammie Stroughter, plus fellow Class of 2010 draftee Arrelious Benn, who was taken a whole two rounds earlier than fourth-rounder Williams. The Syracuse product - not to be confused with the bust from USC who's attempting a comeback in Seattle - fell that far in April mostly because of character issues, but the Bucs have faith he’ll be a solid citizen in Tampa Bay. He’s rewarded them by looking like a star in the making and a possible go-to guy for franchise QB Josh Freeman.

Let’s not kid ourselves here, of course: The Bucs will have their struggles this season, and it’s always risky to count on a rookie wide receiver. Williams would also lose most of his value if Freeman’s thumb injury doesn’t heal quickly. But when you’re digging for that WR4 or WR5 at the tail end of your draft, this 6-2, 204-pounder is the kind of intriguing option that should catch your eye. I placed him at a generous 40th in my WR rankings for 2010, which would make him one of the last receivers taken in a 10-team league.

2010 WR Rankings

2010-08-23T18:26:00.000-04:00

2010 WIDE RECEIVER RANKINGS

There are a lot of familiar names in the top 10, but after that things really get interesting. Old standbys like Terrell Owens and Roy Williams have been replaced in the top 20 by some exciting newcomers (Michael Crabtree, Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace to name three) who look like they could be fantasy No. 1s in the near future.

There's also a lot of uncertainty because of injury (Wes Welker), suspension (Santonio Holmes) or contract disputes (Vincent Jackson). You'll want to remain flexible in the case of late breaking reports on any of these players before your draft.

Unfortunately, we may have to wait for the regular season to see how the distribution of passes plays out as teams like Chicago (Johnny Knox/Devin Hester/Devin Aromashodu/Earl Bennett), Oakland (Louis Murphy/Darrius Heyward-Bey/Chaz Schilens), Arizona (Larry Fitzgerald/Steve Breaston/Early Doucet) and Denver (Demaryius Thomas/Jabar Gaffney/Eddie Royal) figure to have new looks on offense. There are likely to be breakout WRs lurking in all those situations, but your task is to find them in the later rounds. Good luck.

1. Andre Johnson
2. Randy Moss
3. Calvin Johnson
4. Larry Fitzgerald
5. Roddy White
6. Reggie Wayne
7. Greg Jennings
8. DeSean Jackson
9. Brandon Marshall
10. Marques Colston
11. Steve Smith (Panthers)
12. Anquan Boldin
13. Sidney Rice
14. Steve Smith (Giants)
15. Michael Crabtree
16. Dwayne Bowe
17. Chad Ochocinco
18. Hakeem Nicks
19. Mike Wallace
20. Mike Sims-Walker
21. Hines Ward
22. Pierre Garcon
23. Wes Welker
24. Vincent Jackson
25. Robert Meachem
26. Donald Driver
27. Santana Moss
28. Kenny Britt
29. Jerricho Cotchery
30. Derrick Mason
31. Dez Bryant
32. TJ Houshmandzadeh
33. Jeremy Maclin
34. Johnny Knox
35. Steve Breaston
36. Lee Evans
37. Percy Harvin
38. Braylon Edwards
39. Santonio Holmes
40. Mike Williams (Bucs)
41. Early Doucet
42. Terrell Owens
43. Louis Murphy
44. Devin Hester
45. Nate Burleson
46. Kevin Walter
47. Malcolm Floyd
48. Golden Tate
49. Chaz Schilens
50. Mohamed Massaqoi
51. Demaryious Thomas
52. Donnie Avery
53. Bernard Berrian
54. Mario Manningham
55. Devery Henderson
56. Anthony Gonzalez
57. Jabar Gaffney
58. Chris Chambers
59. Eddie Royal
60. Laurent Robinson
61. Arrelious Benn
62. Dexter McCluster
63. Devin Thomas
64. Austin Collie
65. Jacoby Jones
66. Lance Moore
67. Jacoby Jones
68. Joey Galloway
69. Antonio Bryant
70. Nate Washington

8/23 Bust of the Day: Larry Fitzgerald

2010-08-23T01:44:00.001-04:00

WR LARRY FITZGERALD, Cardinals

I don't doubt Fitzgerald's talent. I'm not saying he won't be a No. 1 fantasy wideout this season. But to quote just about every character in the Star Wars movies, I have a bad feeling about this.

Maybe it's the fact Matt Leinart is taking over the reins as Cards QB from the prolific Kurt Warner. Maybe it's the sprained right knee Fitzgerald's already dealing with this preseason. Maybe it's the residue of the Madden Curse that never really struck him last year (but cost co-cover boy Troy Polamalu most of his season). You know what they say about karma ...

But seriously, there are plenty of reasons to worry about Fitzgerald this year. He's not going to have Anquan Boldin around anymore to put pressure on opposing secondaries. And you may remember Fitzgerald's last subpar season (946 yards, 6 TDs in 13 games in 2006) just happened to be the year Arizona was trying to break in Leinart as their starting QB. Now, Leinart is a better QB today then he was as a rookie (presumably) - but can he replace Warner's production? Will more targets come Fitzgerald's way with Boldin out of the picture, or will Arizona just lean more heavily on Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower in the running game?

That's an awful lot of question marks for a WR who I've seen go in the first round in some mock drafts. I still don't have a problem making Fitzgerald my No. 1 WR ... but I'm not sure I'd take him over Andre Johnson or Randy Moss, or even Calvin Johnson. I'm labeling him a bust because I don't think he's the shoe-in for 1,300 yards or double-digit TDs many are tabbing him to be.

8/22 Sleeper of the Day: Aaron Hernandez

2010-08-22T02:53:00.001-04:00

TE AARON HERNANDEZ, Patriots

One of Tim Tebow's favorite targets in college, Hernandez now has the chance to be Tom Brady's boy in New England. The 2010 fourth-rounder won the Mackey Award as the nation's top tight end in his junior season for the Gators and offers the Pats a much-needed offensive threat at the position.

Now, anyone who's had a New England player not named Brady or Randy Moss on their fantasy squad in the past few seasons can tell you the team's offensive philosophy can be maddening. They alter their gameplans so much from week to week and utilize such a variety of players in many different ways that it's hard to see any kind of consistency. Consider this year's stable of TEs: Hernandez, fellow rookie Rob Gronkowski and former fantasy star Alge Crumpler have lined up all over the field this preseason for the Pats (split out wide or in the slot as receivers; as wing backs and fullbacks; plus at the traditional TE spot) and will all be vying for catches this year.

For those reasons, none of those guys is going to be a weekly fantasy contributor you can count on in 2010, but I'd be willing to bet they all have their moments. And I bet Hernandez, the most physically gifted receiver of the three, will have the most moments that are fantasy relevant. He already has seven catches for 72 yards and a TD through two preseason games and has started both contests. I predict a few big games out of the rookie when the matchups dictate, and he could be a sneaky No. 2 TE pick at the end of 12-team drafts. At the very least he'll be someone to watch on the waiver wire.

Photo by The Associated Press

8/20 Bust of the Day: Mike Sims-Walker

2010-08-20T16:23:00.001-04:00

WR MIKE SIMS-WALKER, Jaguars

Sims-Walker's emergence in 2009 was one of those pleasant surprises that pops up every year in fantasy. The second-year receiver was an afterthought at the start of the year but finished with 869 yards and 7 TDs, proving to be one of the season's best waiver wire pickups.

Skip ahead to 2010 and Sims-Walker is being touted as a solid WR2 and a breakout candidate according to the third-year receiver theory. But before we get carried away, let's think this through, shall we?

MSW wasn't a big-time prospect when he was taken in the third round of the 2007 draft out of UCF - not that that's a prerequisite for fantasy success, but it does have some bearing. He was able to take a lot of people by surprise last year but won't have that advantage now that there's a full season of tape on him for opponents to study. The Jags are also still searching for another credible WR to line up opposite MSW. Second-year pro Mike Thomas might be that man - reports are that he's actually outplayed Sims-Walker at times this camp, another troublesome development - but the jury's still out. And Jacksonville QB David Garrard also has to be considered a question mark as he hasn't shown much improvement since becoming a full-time starter.

A closer look at Sims-Walker's numbers last year reveals he had just three 100-yard games (against Arizona, St. Louis and Kansas City), and he trailed off badly in the second half as he was plagued by nagging injuries. He also had a puzzling habit of playing much better at home than on the road, averaging 5.5 catches, 80 yards and .75 TDs a game in the J-A-X and 3.2 catches, 37 yards and .16 TDs per road game.

In short, I'm just not sold on this guy as a No. 2 fantasy receiver I can count on, and I think there are others with more upside.

2010 QB Rankings

2010-08-19T02:23:00.000-04:00

A surprise at the top: Aaron Rodgers is the No. 1 QB in my preseason rankings.

Drew Brees got more pub last year - winning a Super Bowl will do that - but it was actually Rodgers who had more pass attempts and more yards than the Saints star. The Other A-Rod threw 30 TDs, four fewer than Brees, but he also rushed for 5 TDs to Brees' 2, and he tossed four fewer INTs than New Orleans' leader.

Rodgers isn't sneaking up on anyone like last year, and he certainly won't come as cheaply in your fantasy draft. But he's younger than Brees, is a more dangerous rusher and has his full complement of weapons back this year. Plus, he put up last year's excellent numbers despite taking a league-high 50 sacks, a number that's sure to drop with the healthy returns of veteran tackles Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton and the addition of first-rounder Bryan Bulaga.

Some other notes:

Tom Brady falls out of the top 5, mostly because I like some of the league's younger QBs better. Brady's still a bona fide fantasy starter, but I just can't pencil him into the top 3 like I used to anymore.

Brett Favre's value is tough to predict, but it's all about his health, I have to believe that ankle will be healed by Week 1 since he's already joined Vikings camp. Last year's miraculous numbers will be hard to duplicate, but he should still be a top-10 guy if he can last through the season.

I put Kevin Kolb just outside the top-10, which means he's not a starter in your typical 10-team league, but it would not shock me to see him finish there.

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Drew Brees
3. Peyton Manning
4. Matt Schaub
5. Tony Romo
6. Tom Brady
7. Philip Rivers
8. Brett Favre
9. Jay Cutler
10. Joe Flacco
11. Kevin Kolb
12. Eli Manning
13. Matt Ryan
14. Donovan McNabb
15. Ben Roethlisberger
16. Matthew Stafford
17. Chad Henne
18. Carson Palmer
19. Vince Young
20. Matt Cassel
21. Matt Leinart
22. David Garrard
23. Alex Smith
24. Jason Campbell
25. Mark Sanchez
26. Josh Freeman
27. Kyle Orton
28. Matt Hasselbeck
29. Matt Moore
30. Trent Edwards
31. Michael Vick
32. Sam Bradford
33. Charlie Whitehurst
34. Jake Delhomme
35. Seneca Wallace
36. Byron Leftwich
37. Tavaris Jackson
38. Brady Quinn
39. Derek Anderson
40. Ryan Fitzpatrick

8/18 Sleeper of the Day: Michael Bush

2010-08-18T02:53:00.000-04:00

RB MICHAEL BUSH, Raiders

Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas might have been the more familiar names occupying Oakland's backfield, but it was Bush who ended up leading the Silver & Black in rushing last year.

Granted, it was a paltry 589 rushing yards, but still - Bush averaged a more-than-respectable 4.8 yards a carry while getting nothing close to regular playing time in 2009. The Raiders would be wise to let Bush, a tough, inside-the-tackles runner with speed, play a bigger role this year. And all indications are they will do just that, with Fargas getting released in the offseason and the disappointing McFadden nursing injuries again this preseason.

We're probably looking at a timeshare here, unfortunately, with the quicker McFadden serving as a complement to the 247-pound Bush. But with Fargas out of the way I could see Bush getting a few more goal-line looks, and with Jason Campbell under center instead of a JaMarcus Russell/Charlie Frye combo the Raiders should at least have a more respectable passing game to keep opponents from stacking the box. I like Bush as an underrated RB4 who might be able to come close to 800 or 900 yards and 5 or 6 TDs.

8/17 Bust of the Day: Clinton Portis

2010-08-17T10:39:00.000-04:00

RB CLINTON PORTIS, Redskins

I’m sorry, but I’m not buying some of the hype surrounding Portis this offseason. I know he’s reunited with his old coach, Mike Shanahan, who coaxed two 1,500-yard seasons out of him at the start of his career back in Denver. I know Shanny’s worked wonders for running backs over the years. And I know Portis showed up to camp in shape and serious about football for a change (no Choo Choo sightings so far).

That’s all well and good, but the fact remains Portis is a 29-year-old back with more than 2,100 carries in his career, and he’s coming off a severe concussion problem that limited him to eight games last year. There’s a reason Denver brought in Larry Johnson, Willie Parker and former Shanahan draft pick Ryan Torain over the offseason, and it wasn’t simply to motivate Portis. Shanahan is a pioneer in the running-back-by-committee system that’s all the rage around the NFL these days, and I fully expect him to utilize a RB rotation in 2010. Portis may be No. 1 on Washington’s depth chart, but I think he’ll struggle to reach 1,000 yards this season with a limited workload. I’d cap his value at the RB3 level to begin the season.

8/16 Sleeper of the Day: Chad Henne

2010-08-16T22:57:00.000-04:00

QB CHAD HENNE, Dolphins

The young man from Michigan was nearly a top-20 QB last year, and that was in just 14 games (13 starts) and with essentially no receivers. It was an up-and-down year, to be sure - he topped 300 yards passing three times but also threw for 140 or fewer three times. But when you consider it was basically Henne's first year (he played sparingly as a rookie in 2008 - it wasn't all that bad.

Fast forward a year, and Miami has raised expectations for its QB. And make no mistake, this is Henne's team now, with former starter Chad Pennington relegated to possible third-string duties. Henne's the man in 2010, and as such the Dolphins have given him a shiny new toy in the form of star WR Brandon Marshall. The once-disgruntled Bronco gives the Miami WR corps an immediate upgrade and makes Henne that much more fantasy relevant. You can pencil in Marshall for at least 100 catches (101, 104 and 102 the past three seasons) and 1,000 yards, which will boost Henne's stats. Brian Hartline and Davone Bess are decent complementary pieces, and the Dolphins figure to have a strong running game their young QB can lean on.

I'm not ready to make any Dan Marino comparisons just yet, but I can foresee Henne being at least a serviceable QB2 in 2010, which places him solidly in the sleeper category.

Photo by The Associated Press

8/15 Bust of the Day: Tom Brady

2010-08-15T02:14:00.001-04:00

QB TOM BRADY, Patriots

Before you flip out and call me a crazy Brady hater (or worse), please read this blog carefully. I'm not predicting Tom Terrific's days as a fantasy force are over. I'm not saying he's washed up or not worth drafting. I'm simply stating my belief that Brady will fail to deliver on the general consensus of expectations for him this year, which is how I define a bust.

But first, the positives: Brady's currently playing for a new contract, as is his top receiver, the always dangerous Randy Moss. Standout slot man Wes Welker is progressing nicely from reconstructive knee surgery. The Pats still don't have a go-to running back, which means plenty of pass attempts. And Brady's more than a year removed from a devastating knee injury of his own.

Now check this out: I'm seeing Brady being touted as a definite-top-5/possibly-top-3/maybe-top-overall QB in many fantasy circles, but a lot of that is still based on memories of his record-breaking, pre-injury 2007 season. Take away that 50-TD anomaly, and he's never thrown for more than 28 scores in a season. Granted, he equaled that number last year and also had his second-most passing yards (4,398) - yet he still finished as the seventh-rated fantasy QB in standard-scoring leagues.

Other QBs have closed the gap on old stalwarts Brady and Peyton Manning - not just new standard-bearer Drew Brees but also young upstarts like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers and Tony Romo. Brady still might be a safe fantasy pick, but it depends where you're picking him too, because there are others available who might have more upside or be even safer. Remember, Brady's 33 years old (and so is Moss for that matter) and is going to eventually decline. Nobody wants to spend a first- or second-round pick on him the year that happens.

That's all I'm sayin'.

8/14 Sleeper of the Day: Mike Wallace

2010-08-14T11:46:00.001-04:00

WR MIKE WALLACE, Steelers

You can insert your own 60 Minutes joke here, but this kid is no laughing matter. Bet you didn’t know his 19.4 yards per catch was tops among all WRs last year with 35 catches or more – and that was with Santonio Holmes still on the team. Wallace is assured of being a starter this year opposite Hines Ward and will serve as the offense’s primary deep threat after he made Holmes expendable during the offseason. He totaled 756 yards and scored 6 TDs as a rookie and has a chance to bump those numbers up to 1,000 yards and double-digit scores in 2010 as he takes up Holmes’ slack.

There is some risk with drafting Wallace - the absence of QB Ben Roethlisberger for as many as six games at the start of the season, Ward’s continued presence and the Steelers’ desire to return to their rushing roots. However, I still believe he has the skills and the opportunity to finish the year in the top 20 among fantasy receivers and is a future WR1 even though he’s currently being drafted as a WR3. There’s big potential here, and it's only a matter of time before he realizes it. Tick, tick, tick, tick ...

Podcast time: Prep for your draft

2010-08-14T01:51:00.000-04:00

Another Fantasy Focus podcast is available for your listening pleasure. This time we're offering up six simple steps to keep in mind as you begin prepping for your football draft. From mastering the tier system to mock drafting your brains out, we've got you covered.

8/13 Bust of the Day: Joseph Addai

2010-08-13T12:03:00.002-04:00

RB JOSEPH ADDAI, Colts

There's a lot to like about Addai. He's a trusted and important part of the Colts offense. He scored 13 total TDs last year. He compiled 1,164 rushing and receiving yards in 2009. And he's playing for a new contract in 2010.

That said, why am I dissing Addai as a potential bust? Allow me to explain.

Addai's 13 TDs last year helped cover up the fact he averaged only 3.8 yards a carry, the second year in a row that number was under 4. Whether that's because the Colts offensive line is better equipped to protect Peyton Manning than to run block these days, it's hard to say. But Addai hasn't displayed a whole lot of big-play ability either - he hasn't had a run longer than 23 yards since his rookie season in 2006.

And I'll tell you who does have big-play ability: second-year back Donald Brown, Addai's backup. Brown's rookie season didn't go as well as I and some other prognositcators envisioned (281 rushing yards, 3.6 a carry, 3 TDs in 11 games). But he's flashed the explosiveness Addai has lacked - his 45-yard run in Week 7 against St. Louis last year is longer than any in Addai's career. Now that the former first-rounder has had more than a year to master the Colts' complicated offense, expect to see him take on a bigger role this year and siphon some carries from Addai. Besides, with Addai being eligible for free agency next season, Indy will probably want to figure out if their investment has what it takes to be a feature back.

I'm not saying Addai doesn't have value. His versatility and his role in the Colts' passing attack are still appealing. I just don't think he's a top-20 back this year as many are predicting.

Photo by The Associated Press

8/12 Sleeper of the Day: Kevin Kolb

2010-08-12T03:16:00.003-04:00

QB KEVIN KOLB, Eagles

There’s a reason the Eagles let Donovan McNabb go. This guy is it.

Philly’s QB of the future gets his shot with McNabb having been unceremoniously run out of town. He’ll be under a ton of pressure, of course (Philly and pressure are almost synonymous when it comes to sports), but the Eagles are betting he’s ready after a three-year apprenticeship. Other than the high expectations of Iggles fans, Kolb steps into an almost ideal situation.

The Texas Tech product has spent three seasons learning Andy Reid’s West Coast offense, and in two fill-in starts in 2009 he proved he's got a handle on it. He torched the Saints in Week 2, throwing for 391 yards and two 2Ds on 31-for-51 passing (but also tossed two INTs), then followed that with a 24-for-34, 327-yard, two-TD obliteration of the Chiefs. In doing so he became the first NFL QB to throw for 300 or more yards in his first two career starts.

Here's why I like Kolb this year, aside from his obvious skills: he's playing for a pass-happy team. Reid's Eagles have been among the top 10 in pass attempts in each of the past six seasons and could skew even more in that direction this year with the departure of RB Brian Westbrook. And to top it off, Kolb has some terrific young skill players to throw to in WRs DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin and emerging TE Brent Celek. I think you'll see Reid show confidence in Kolb airing it out on a weekly basis, giving him a chance to finish as a top-10 fantasy QB. There's some risk here, but not as much as you might think, and there could be a great payoff for those who scoop Kolb up after some bigger names are off the board.

8/11 Bust of the Day: Dez Bryant

2010-08-11T00:08:00.001-04:00

Dez Bryant has already made quite a name for himself, and he hasn’t played a down in the NFL yet.

Bryant, a decorated wide receiver at Oklahoma State, had to sit out most of his junior season because he lied to the NCAA about meeting with Deion Sanders. Then, after being selected in the first round of April’s NFL Draft by the Cowboys, he made waves a few weeks ago when he refused to carry the shoulder pads of veteran WR Roy Williams, violating a longstanding rookie tradition.

In the long run we may look back and laugh at such nonsense when Bryant morphs into the next Michael Irvin, as many observers are predicting for the youngster. The 6-foot-2, 225-pounder certainly has the size and the ball skills Irvin displayed coming out of The U, and I have no doubt that, if healthy, Bryant will supplant the underwhelming Williams sooner or later and crack Dallas’ starting lineup. But his health is a concern, as he’s currently nursing a sprained ankle suffered July 30, an injury originally expected to keep him sidelined for 4-6 weeks. And that means he’s already going to be behind the curve, always a dangerous proposition for rookie WRs, who tend to not make huge impacts to begin with.

It’s not that I don’t think Bryant will turn out to be an exceptional pro long-term or have any value short-term. It’s just that I think people (especially Cowboys fans) will recognize the name and the skill set and tend to overvalue him on draft day. Dallas QB Tony Romo has a lot of mouths to feed (Williams, Miles Austin, Jason Witten, Felix Jones ...), so a projection of, say, 700-800 yards and 5 TDs for Bryant in his first season is more than fair. But there are a lot of receivers who can put up those numbers, and many are likely to go later in your draft than a big name like Bryant. He’s promising, but a fantasy No. 3 at best right now.

8/10 Sleeper of the Day: Dexter McCluster

2010-08-10T01:30:00.002-04:00

WR/RB DEXTER McCLUSTER, Chiefs

Think of McCluster as Percy Harvin Lite. He won’t make quite as much of an impact as the versatile Viking did as a rookie last year, but he’ll be valuable nonetheless and won’t cost as much as Harvin did on draft day.

McCluster, Kansas City’s second-round draft pick in April, was an outstanding performer at Ole Miss, where he lined up all over the field and amassed 1,700 all-purpose yards and scored 11 total TDs as a senior. Area high school football followers may remember McCluster as a standout at Largo High, where he was named the St. Petersburg Times’ All-Suncoast Player of the Year in 2005.

Listed at only 5-foot-9 and 172 pounds, McCluster’s even smaller than Harvin, but he’s got just as much speed, and he’s no weakling, having put up 20 reps of 225 pounds in the bench press at the NFL Combine. The Chiefs, who’ve sorely lacked offensive playmakers in recent years, have visions of McCluster as a slot receiver, scat back, wildcat runner and return man. It’s hard to pin down his exact role, but coach Todd Haley has lined up him all over the field so far this preseason.

I can’t see McCluster challenging Jamaal Charles or Thomas Jones for too many carries out of the backfield or taking away too many receptions from Dwayne Bowe or Chris Chambers, but I think Kansas City will definitely try to get him a fair share of touches. As always with hybrid players of his ilk (Harvin, Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles) it’ll be difficult to count on McCluster for consistent production. But I like him as No. 4 WR who you might get a big week out of here or there when you need to sub him in or use him as your flex player. Look for him late in your draft.

8/9 Bust of the Day: TJ Houshmandzadeh

2010-08-09T00:30:00.002-04:00

WR TJ HOUSHMANDZADEH, Seahawks

TJ’s first year in the Pacific Northwest didn’t go quite as well as we envisioned – at least not compared to the previous three in Cincinnati. Houshmandzadeh had his fewest catches (79) since 2005 and his fewest TDs (3) since 2002 during his debut season with the Seahawks. That’s not the kind of production drop you want to see in a receiver who will be turning 33 this season, especially not a guy who had sports hernia surgery in the offseason.

Now, you can trace a lot of Houshmandzadeh’s problems of last season back to a shaky offensive line, the lack of a ground game and poor quarterback play from a banged-up Matt Hasselbeck and Seneca Wallace. But Seattle took significant steps to rectify those issues in the offseason, with new coach Pete Carroll bringing in esteemed assistant coach Alex Gibbs to revamp the offensive line and drafting left tackle Russell Okung and WR Golden Tate. On paper, the Seattle offense should be better, which can only help TJ’s numbers.

But ultimately, he’s still a 33-year-old receiver on the downside of his career. He’s still coming off a sports hernia, an injury that can resurface. He’s still got a creaky Hasselbeck (or untested new backup Charlie Whitehurst) throwing him the ball. There’s fantasy value here if you can get Houshmandzadeh as your third receiver, but not enough for me to stick my neck out and make him my No. 2 WR.

Photo by The Associated Press

8/8 Sleeper of the Day: Matthew Stafford

2010-08-08T03:09:00.005-04:00

QB MATTHEW STAFFORD, LIONS

What's this? A recommendation for a Detroit quarterback? No joke!

OK, so Stafford didn't exactly take the fantasy world by storm in Year 1, and nobody's confusing the kid with Bobby Layne yet. But there's a lot to like here in 2010.

For starters, let's begin with what's NOT here: No Daunte Culpepper to take away valuable snaps or practice reps from the developing Stafford, and no shoulder and knee injuries that hampered him throughout his rookie season. Stafford was forced to miss six games last year, and while his stats in the remaining 10 weren't all that pretty (13 TDs, 20 INTs), he'll have the benefit of being the team's unquestioned starter from the opening of camp and a having year under his belt.

Now, for the really exciting part. Not only does Stafford have Calvin Johnson, who's on the cusp of becoming the game's best receiver, as his main target, but the Lions have upgraded the rest of their offensive weapons. In the offseason they added WR Nate Burleson and TE Tony Scheffler and drafted explosive RB Jahvid Best and are starting to look like a professional football team. True, it could all be for naught if Detroit's offensive line does the same swiss cheese impression as last year and stunts Stafford's development. But that unit should improve, and so should Stafford. He's not ready to make the jump to No. 1 fantasy starter just yet, but I contend he'll make for a serviceable and underrated backup this year.

Fantasy Focus podcast - football edition

2010-08-07T11:31:00.001-04:00

Colleague Jason Dill and I did our first football edition of the Fantasy Focus podcast this year for your listening pleasure. This week we discussed a few of the sleepers and busts I've been blogging about, plus some strategies to consider as you prep for your draft. Enjoy.

8/7 Bust of the day: Thomas Jones

2010-08-07T02:11:00.000-04:00

RB THOMAS JONES, Chiefs

TJ outperformed fantasy expectations in each of the past two seasons, but he's never really been a by-the-book guy anyway. Running backs aren't supposed to have career years at the ages of 30 and 31, but that's exactly what he did in 2008 and 2009, running for a combined 2,714 yards and 27 TDs with the Jets. And what does he have to show for it? Walking papers handed to him in the offseason by New York, which replaced him with a younger, less expensive model in Shonn Greene.

The reason Jones was able to be so effective in his golden years - aside from the Jets' excellent run-blocking - is the fact that he had much less tread on his tires than other RBs his age. Remember, he was lightly used in his first four seasons with the Cardinals and Bucs, failing to attempt even 140 carries each year. And now, part of the reason I'm tagging him as a bust is he made up for lost time with a whopping 331 carries last year. We got a glimpse of how much of a toll that took on Jones by playoff time, when he couldn't muster more than 42 yards in three postseason games and was phased out in favor of Greene.

As if his age and mileage weren't enough to make you back off, Jones also has to contend with another up-and-coming young back, Jamaal Charles, in his new home in Kansas City. Like two ships passing in the night, expect Charles to get the bulk of the carries, perhaps as many as two-thirds, as Jones is used in moderation. He'll still have value, just not what we've been accustomed to seeing out of him. Think of him as a No. 3 or 4 RB.

Photo by McClatchy Tribune

8/6 Sleeper of the Day: Jermichael Finley

2010-08-06T14:10:00.001-04:00

TE JERMICHAEL FINLEY, PACKERS

Depending on the savviness of your fellow leaguemates, Finley could be an absolute steal for you in the later rounds – or he’ll be snatched up way earlier than you ever dreamed. He’s getting a lot of hype this preseason, and with good reason.

At 6-foot-5 and 243 pounds Finley's a physical specimen, and he finished strong in 2009 as he took over the starting role from Donald Lee. He caught four of his five TDs in the final five weeks of the season last year, then topped that off with a six-catch, 159-yard destruction of Arizona's defense in a wild-card playoff loss. As he enters his third pro season he's become a favorite target of up-and-coming QB Aaron Rodgers, and though the Pack like to spread the ball around, Finley was still fourth in red-zone targets among TEs. We could see him double that TD number this year with a full season as Green Bay's No. 1 TE, which would put Finley among the top 5 options at the position in 2010.

8/5 Bust of the Day: Donovan McNabb

2010-08-05T02:19:00.002-04:00

QB DONOVAN McNABB, REDSKINS

The way the Eagles unceremoniously dumped their franchise QB wasn’t right, but unfortunately for McNabb, he’s not in a better place. Washington was inept at protecting Jason Campbell last year (46 sacks allowed, 5th most in NFL), and it’ll be breaking in a rookie left tackle (Trent Williams) in place of retired vet Chris Samuels this year. Factor in the downgrades at WR and the M.A.S.H. unit at RB (Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, Willie Parker), and McNabb doesn’t figure to have a lot of help around him.

Sure, he still has fantasy value as a backup QB. New Redskins coach Mike Shanahan will put McNabb in situations where he can succeed, and he’ll have his share of big games as always, but it looks like his days of being a consistent No. 1 are over. The Eagles' willingness to trade him to a division rival this offseason is perhaps the most telling signal he's in decline.

8/4 Sleeper of the Day: Ryan Matthews

2010-08-04T00:09:00.003-04:00

RB RYAN MATTHEWS, CHARGERS

Matthews may not be as flashy or as well known as fellow rookie RBs C.J. Spiller or Jahvid Best, but he’s stepping into an ideal situation in San Diego, at least for our purposes. The first-rounder from Fresno State will be a part of an explosive Chargers offense with a good offensive line, and with LaDainian Tomlinson out of the picture, his only competition for carries is the diminutive Darren Sproles.

Much of the country didn’t see Matthews tearing it up in the WAC last year, where he led the nation with 1,808 rushing yards (6.6 a carry, 150 a game) and scored 19 TDs on 276 carries. He’s proven himself as a workhorse, but he’s also got quite a burst (seven TD runs of 50 yards or more last year).

If all goes well, Matthews should surpass LT2’s 2009 stats, and while I have a hard time counting on a rookie as my No. 1 RB, he’ll make an excellent No. 2 with upside.

Give 'em Hellickson

2010-08-03T13:09:00.000-04:00

Tampa Bay is still buzzing about top pitching prospect Jeremy Hellickson, who blazed past the Twins in his MLB debut on Monday.

"Hellboy" retired the first 10 batters he faced, finishing with three hits allowed, six strikeouts and two earned runs in seven innings. The 23-year-old looked cool, calm and collected while mixing a 92-93 mph fastball with an 82 mph change and keeping the Minnesota hitters off balance.

While Hellickson had been dominant at Triple-A this year to the tune of an 11-2 record, 2.21 ERA and 104/26 K/BB ratio, the righty's being sent back to the farm after giving Tampa Bay's starters an extra day of rest. But you have to figure we'll see him in a Rays uniform again soon after such a successful debut, most likely in the bullpen this September, a la David Price in 2008. Of course if there's an injury in the Rays rotation, they now know they have a spot starter who's proven he can hang with the big boys. For that reason, Hellickson could be worth hanging onto in most fantasy leagues and should certainly be scooped up in keeper leagues.

Photo by The Associated Press

8/3 Bust of the Day: Greg Olsen

2010-08-03T04:30:00.002-04:00

TE GREG OLSEN, BEARS

Trivia time! Of course you remember the “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams offense of 1999-2001, right? Kurt Warner. Marshall Faulk. Torry Holt. Isaac Bruce. Az-Zahir Hakim. But who were the tight ends?

Give up?

Remember Roland Williams and Ernie Conwell?

Didn’t think so.

The reason I bring it up is because the architect of those offenses, Mike Martz, is now the offensive coordinator of the Chicago Bears, which spells bad news for tight end Greg Olsen. Martz simply doesn’t utilize his tight ends as pass-catchers. He didn't in those halcyon days in St. Louis, or any other stop along the way. Want more evidence? When Martz spent 2008 as the 49ers’ O.C., Vernon Davis caught 31 passes. Davis had 52 catches the year before Martz got there, and 78 the year after he left.

Olsen, a terrific talent and great target at 6-foot-4, was supposed to have his breakout last year with Jay Cutler at the helm of the Bears' offense, and he did lead the team with 60 catches. But there’s a good chance Olsen will regress under Martz, who’s already brought in TE Brandon Manumaleuna from his later Rams days to – you guessed it – block. That's a shame, because Olsen has top-10 talent but will hard pressed to be a top-20 performer this season.

8/2 Sleeper of the day: Hakeem Nicks

2010-08-02T11:57:00.000-04:00

WR HAKEEM NICKS, GIANTS

This 2009 first-rounder has big-play receiver written all over him. He showed us that last year, catching 47 passes – including 13 of 20-plus yards and five of 40-plus yards – in his rookie campaign, including six for TDs. He also had a few big drops, but perhaps we can chalk those up to rookie mistakes. If Nicks can beat out Mario Manningham for the Giants’ No. 2 WR spot, he should be the primary deep threat and a great complement to possession receiver Steve Smith. The 6-1, 210-pounder is an excellent fantasy No. 3 with the potential to be a No. 2.

Trade deadline wrapup: What it all means

2010-08-01T13:26:00.001-04:00

A quick scan of the major moves made leading up to MLB's trade deadline, and their fantasy impact:

LANCE BERKMAN TO YANKEES: Berkman's value jumps up considerably after being plucked from one of the league's most punchless offenses in Houston and plopped down into the middle of one of its most potent in New York. Though clearly on the decline - just a .245 average and 13 HRs for the former All-Star so far - you have to wonder how much of that was a function of playing for the Astros. Here's hoping he'll show a little life as a full-time DH and provide some more power down the stretch.

KERRY WOOD TO YANKEES: Unfortunately a relocation to the Big Apple does little for this veteran's value. Wood loses what little fantasy appeal he had since there's absolutely no save chances coming his way as long as Mariano Rivera is in good health. Bradenton's Chris Perez is now the man in Cleveland.

OCTAVIO DOTEL TO DODGERS: Ditto for Dotel, who won't sniff a save opportunity with Jonathan Broxton at 100 percent. Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek will get the call in the ninth now for Pittsburgh.

TED LILLY TO DODGERS: Lilly's lack of strikeouts (89 in 117 innings) doesn't help his fantasy value, and neither does his 3-8 record with the Cubs. But there should be a few more Ws coming his way with contending L.A., and he won't hurt your ERA (3.69) all that much either.

RYAN THERIOT TO DODGERS: The second baseman certainly isn't known for his power (1 HR), so a move from Wrigley Field to spacious Dodger Stadium won't have a negative impact in that department. He'll take over the starting 2B spot in L.A. with Blake DeWitt going over to Chicago in the deal, but aside from his speed (16 steals) he doesn't offer a ton of value to begin with.

JAKE WESTBROOK TO CARDINALS: The veteran right-hander has put up middling numbers this year (6-7, 4.65 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), but he's certainly a good NL-only option and could be worth a look in mixed leagues now that he's under the tutelage of pitching guru Dave Duncan.

MATT CAPPS TO TWINS: The Nationals closer and All-Star gets an automatic upgrade as he moves to a contender where he'll see more save chances. And in Washington, up-and-comer Drew Storen gets a shot to prove he's a ninth-inning star.

Oswalt's value rises in Philly

2010-07-30T13:03:00.000-04:00

Roy Oswalt is now a Philadelphia Phillie as another big-name pitcher has been traded to a contender.

Oswalt's enjoyed a fine 2010 so far. To steal a few telling stats from ESPN's Jayson Stark:

He ranks among the league leaders in quality starts (15 - as many as Ubaldo Jimenez), WHIP (1.11 - better than Chris Carpenter), opponent OPS (.652 - better than Tim Lincecum) and strikeout/walk ratio (3.53 - better than all but a half-dozen pitchers in the league). ...

He's allowing a lower opponent batting average (.229), on-base percentage (.280) and OPS (.652) than he has in any season in his fabulous career. His strikeout ratio (8.4 per 9 IP) is his best since his rookie year.

Yeah, Oswalt's been pretty good. The only thing lacking, from a fantasy perspective: Wins. He's 6-12, which is mostly a function of playing for the lowly Astros. Granted, the Phillies have had their offensive problems this year, but Oswalt should get a big boost in run support this summer. Philly is eighth in the league in runs with 481 - or 117 more than 28th-ranked Houston.

Now, there have been whispers that the 32-year-old was perhaps feeling his age - or that he was just disinterested in pitching for Houston - in recent weeks. But I believe you'll see the same old Oswalt now that he's in the thick of a pennant race. And that's a good thing for his fantasy owners.

T.O. to Bengals; should you care?

2010-07-29T00:08:00.000-04:00

Remember this?

And this?

And this?

Of course you do. That's the reason there's so much attention on the Bengals signing a 36-year-old wide receiver who had 800 receiving yards and 5 TDs last year.

Those numbers aren't really popcorn-worthy, and Terrell Owens is no longer the dominating fantasy force he once was. But when you consider he managed the aforementioned stats last year with some of the stiffs Buffalo trotted out at QB throwing him the ball, plus the fact that he had 10 receptions of 25 yards or longer last year (and the Bengals as a team had just 12), there's reason to believe T.O. could find his niche in Cincinnati.

Will he be a fantasy No. 1 or 2 WR this year? No. Will he have a hard time getting consistent targets in a crowded Bengals receiving corps that includes Chad Ochocinco, Antonio Bryant, rookie Jordan Shipley and others? Probably. Will he ruin the team chemistry with a tantrum or other distraction? Quite possibly.

But will Owens benefit from having Carson Palmer at QB and produce enough big plays to be a borderline No. 3 fantasy receiver? I might be willing to make that gamble on draft day.

Dan Haren's escape from the desert

2010-07-26T17:35:00.000-04:00

Another ace is on the move.

This time Dan Haren is leaving behind the hapless Diamondbacks for the Angels as they try to become relevant again in the AL West chase. How does the weekend deal affect Haren's fantasy fortunes?

Haren's been a huge disappointment thanks to a bloated ERA (4.60) and the whopping 23 homers he's allowed in 2010. But let's focus on the positives here: He's tied with Josh Johnson for first in the in NL in strikeouts (141), six behind Jered Weaver for the league lead. He's walked only 29 batters all year. He'll also have the benefit of a better bullpen in Anaheim than the mess in the desert. And it's not like Haren doesn't have experience in the harder-hitting American League; he went 43-34 with a 3.64 from 2005-07 with the A's.

I expect Haren's performance to improve now that he's pitching in more-forgiving Angels Stadium and for a contending team. If you're an owner - or a potential owner - the trade is welcome news.

Photo by The Associated Press

Keeper debate: Adam Jones vs. Billy Butler

2010-07-18T02:08:00.007-04:00

My old pal Sean-Dogg recently hit me up for some fantasy advice, as he's been known to do over the years. He's in a pretty serious keeper league and he's faced with a big conundrum: He's got to give up Alex Rodriguez at the end of the year, so he's trying to entertain trade offers while his team is basically out of contention this season.

His decision right now essential comes down to choosing between Orioles OF Adam Jones and some spare parts, or a package that includes Royals 1B Billy Butler. Neither of those guys is going to replace the overall production of an A-Rod anytime soon, but they're both quality keeper prospects who are relatively young (Jones turns 25 in a few weeks; Butler just turned 24 in April) and have room to grow. So who's a better keeper pick?

To start, we should note that the skill sets are quite different. Butler's not known for being fleet of foot (1 career SB in 4 seasons); Jones has swiped 10 bags in each of the past two years (though he has just 3 so far in 2010). Butler's a career .297 hitter with an average currently hovering at .318; Jones seems to have topped out at around .270. Butler's been a much more patient hitter, as evidenced by his 41/37 K/BB ratio this year; Jones has only walked 10 times in 2010 compared to 79 strikeouts. Both have shown 20-homer power (Butler had 21 last year, Jones 19).

This is a pretty tough call. As I told the Dogg, I want to give Butler the edge because he's younger than Jones and yet he's already proven more at the major league level. The ability to hit .300 for a season is a impressive skill, and last year's .301/21/93 stat line speaks volumes about Butler's talents. However, while the average is for real, I wonder if he can improve on those power numbers and jump up to the class of the 30- and 40-homer first basemen that dominate a deep position.

Jones' potential as a five-category contributor are intriguing, but they're still just that, potential. Until I see better results and an improved approach at the plate and more aggression on the basepaths, I have to declare Butler the better keeper prospect by a hair.

Hope that helps, buddy.

Photos by The Associated Press

Podcast: Fantasy All-Stars

2010-07-17T22:58:00.000-04:00

Podcast partner Jason Dill and I took a closer look at the first-half fantasy all-stars in our Fantasy Focus podcast. Crank it up and let the debate begin.

Second-half reinforcements

2010-07-17T03:15:00.002-04:00

Looking for an arm or two to bolster your pitching staff for the second half? Here are a few friendly suggestions:

Brett Anderson has been phenomenal this year - whenever he's available to pitch, that is. The Oakland ace has compiled just 30.2 innings this year because of lingering elbow tendinitis, but oh, what a memorable 30.2 innings they were (22 strikeouts, 4 walks). Anderson's currently on a rehab assignment, and while he's still rounding back into form (4 innings, 7 hits in a Rookie League start Thursday), you may be able to scoop him up off waivers if he's been forgotten in your league. Lots of upside here if that elbow's healed.

Edinson Volquez is another overlooked, injured hurler who demands your attention. The former Tommy John patient hasn't pitched in the majors for a year and a half, but his minor-league rehab has gone well this year (4-0, 1.45 ERA in six starts), and he's due to make his return Saturday vs. Colorado. Be prepared for some bumps - witness Francisco Liriano's rocky 2009 comeback from Tommy John surgery, among other horror stories - but Volquez's strikeout and win potential with the Reds can't be overlooked.

Perhaps you're looking for a breakout rookie pitcher? Try San Francisco's Madison Bumgarner, a 2007 first-rounder and owner of a career 34-6 record, 2.00 ERA and 4.09 K/BB ratio in his minor league career. Since his call-up at the end of June, the lefty is sporting a 2.57 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 21 strikeouts against five walks. Still plenty of room on the bandwagon.

If relievers are more your speed, why not take a shot at Boston setup man Daniel Bard? The flamethrower has been one of the league's top setup men (1.90 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, league-leading 19 holds), which along with his strikeouts (45) make him valuable enough as it is. Add in the fact that he's the Red Sox closer of the future and has already vultured a few saves off the volatile Jonathan Papelbon and Bard gets even more intriguing.

Photo by The Associated Press

First-half Fantasy All-Stars

2010-07-13T12:26:00.001-04:00

Since we've got a few days without a meaningful baseball game (unless you buy that "this time it counts!" nonsense from the MLB All-Star Game), it's a great time to take a step back and evaluate the first half of the fantasy season.

As always, there's no fan voting, no managerial or player choices, no stuffing the ballots and no popularity contests here. Just the cold, hard stats to tell us who are the 2010 Fantasy All-Stars so far.

CATCHER

Joe Mauer and Brian McCann are bigger names, but it's journeyman Miguel Olivo who leads all catchers in RBIs and is in the top three in runs, homers, steals and average. Sure, a lot of that is due to the Coors Field factor - Olivo's hitting .400 at home, .215 on the road - but he's still been the best backstop this year.

FIRST BASE

What a turnaround for Miguel Cabrera. He entered the season as a big question mark because of last year's drinking incident and now stands as a legit Triple Crown contender thanks to a .346 average, 22 homers and 77 RBIs, all of which lead the majors.

SHORTSTOP

For all the discussion about Hanley Ramirez loafing it in the outfield, he hasn't been a slouch at the plate, where he's in the top five in each of the big five categories among shortstops.

SECOND BASE

Robinson Cano might not steal bases (2), but he does everything else exceptionally well - .336 average, 16 HR, 58 RBIs, 61 R. Sure, it helps that fantasy stalwarts Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia are hurt, but Robbie was already outpacing them before their injuries.

THIRD BASE

Remember when everybody was upset about David Wright's power outage (10 HRs) last year? He's got 14 so far this year, along with the most RBIs (65) in the NL. He's also got the most steals (14) among third-sackers and is hitting .314.

OUTFIELD

The underappreciated Carl Crawford is putting together a career year with .321 average, 31 steals, 70 runs scored (tops in the big leagues). Good timing for the soon-to-be free agent.

Josh Hamilton has put a down 2009 in his rearview mirror. The fully healthy Texas slugger has 22 homers, 64 RBIs, 59 runs scored and is hitting a robust .346 with 1.015 OPS.

Corey Hart is a surprising third choice in the outfield, but the guy does have 21 homers and 65 RBIs after all. Not bad for somebody who started the year as a platoon player for the Brewers.

UTILITY

Rangers DH Vladimir Guerrero has enjoyed quite a resurgence in the Lone Star State - 20 HRs, 75 RBIs, .319 average, which place him among the league leaders. So much for being washed up ...

STARTING PITCHER

Anybody predict Ubaldo Jimenez to be the league's best pitcher in 2010? Not only does the Rockies ace have a league-high 15 wins, but his miniscule 2.20 ERA and 1.05 WHIP have been helping fantasy squads all year, and his 113 Ks, while fewer than some other aces, are certainly enough to help you stay competitive.

RELIEF PITCHER
There's no clear-cut answer at closer. Carlos Marmol leads in strikeouts (78). Joakim Soria leads in saves (25). Jose Valverde is tops in ERA (0.92). Mariano Rivera has the best WHIP (0.62). But I'm going with a guy who's competitive in all those categories, Heath Bell of the Padres (24 saves, 1.88 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 50 Ks, 4 wins) by a hair over Billy Wagner, Rafael Soriano, Neftali Feliz and a few other worthy candidates.

Cliff Lee trade impact

2010-07-12T12:12:00.001-04:00

Cliff Lee's a Ranger.

Not a Yankee. Not a Mariner. Not a Phillie or Indian, either.

In yet another midseason deal, Lee has again changed teams with the hopes of changing the MLB playoff picture.

Texas acquired Lee from Seattle last week for a package of prospects. What's it mean for fantasy players? Not a whole lot, to be honest. Lee's Cy Young-caliber numbers (8-4, 2.64 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) shouldn't take much of a dip.

Granted, he's moving from an extreme pitcher's park to one of the most hitting-friendly stadiums in the league in Rangers Ballpark, and he doesn't have particularly good career numbers in Arlington (7.33 ERA, 1.45 WHIP in 8 starts). But Lee's been arguably the most dominant pitcher this season - he's got 91 strikeouts and just six walks this year, for gosh sakes - and I expect that to continue. So what if his Texas debut didn't go as planned last Saturday (9 hits, 6 earned runs, 2 strikeouts)? Lee still pitched a complete game, his eighth of the season. He'll have a just as good a defense behind him in Texas as he enjoyed in Seattle, plus the added benefit of a much better bullpen, anchored by All-Star closer Neftali Feliz, whenever he's not able to go nine innings. He'll also have much better run support as he leaves behind the hitting-challenged M's.

Lee's ratios may inch up a bit along with the summer temperatures in Texas, but I still expect him to contend for the AL Cy Young and pile up the W's when all is said and done.

As for the other players involved in the deal, the most fantasy relevant is 1B Justin Smoak, who's still a good long-term prospect but probably won't be able to improve on his .206 average much in Seattle this year and probably belongs on your bench for the forseeable future.

And back in Texas, the trade opens up a spot at first for Chris Davis, who hit 17 homers in 295 at-bats as a rookie in 2008 but had been since sent back-and-forth to the minors while struggling at the plate. Davis had been tearing up Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .327 average, .418 on-base percentage and .521 slugging and might be able to provide some power with regular playing time in the big leagues. He's worth a look in deep leagues.

Photo by The Associated Press

Home run outliers

2010-07-08T19:51:00.007-04:00

I was thinking the other day about home run outliers.

Everybody remembers when Brady Anderson hit 50 homers for the Orioles in 1996, one of the all-time statistical anomalies. Anderson never hit more than half that number in any other season - his next highest HR total was 24 in 1999. Of course, we can probably wager a guess as to how Anderson was able to put up such a head-scratching total during what we now know was a steroid-fueled era, even though the notorious workout fiend never actually been implicated in performance enhancing.

There were plenty of other guys with out-of-whack home run numbers from that time: Luis Gonzalez's 57 HRs in 2001 (next highest total: 28); Adrian Beltre's 48 dingers in 2004 (hasn't hit more than 26 before or since); and of course Barry Bonds' record 73 in 2001 (granted, Bonds was a big-time, likely chemically-enhanced slugger, but that number was off the charts, and he never had a 50-homer season otherwise).

That leads us to probably the most famous home run outlier of all time: Roger Maris' 61 round-trippers in 1961. Though we're fairly certain his then-record number of homers had nothing to do with performance enhancing, Maris posted only two other 30-homer seasons in his career - 39 the year before, and 33 the year after.

That leads us to a few other home run outliers we're seeing in 2010, though none seem to be as egregiously odd or record-setting as those already mentioned. Still, here are guys who've stuck out like sore thumbs on the HR leaderboard so far, and what we can expect from them the rest of the way:

Let's start with Toronto's Jose Bautista, your major league home run leader so far (22). That's pretty shocking since the journeyman's been around the block for a while and is already well beyond his career HR total (The past four seasons: 13, 15, 15 and 16). A lot of the credit has to go to new Blue Jays hitting coach Dwayne Murphy, whose emphasis on driving the ball rather than simply getting on base plays to Bautista's strengths (He is, after all, a career .238 hitter batting exactly .238 as of this posting). Still, 18 percent of Bautista's fly balls are going for home runs this year, and his career average in that department is around 10 percent, which means there's likely to be a significant drop-off sometime soon in the homer department. Bautista is a good sell-high candidate because if the power's not there he doesn't do a lot else for fantasy purposes.

Sticking with the homer-happy Blue Jays, who lead the majors in long balls, we'll next look at shortstop Alex Gonzalez, who's gone deep 16 times this year. Gonzalez, though he does have a 23-homer season on his resume, has been known more for his glove than his bat in his 12-year big-league career. In fact, Gonzalez hit just eight homers last year, yet is on pace to crack 30 this season. Sounds like a possible outlier to me and another potential sell-high candidate, although I'd be more apt to hang on to Gonzalez due to the lack of power potential at the SS position.

Finally, we'll examine Corey Hart, whose 19 home runs have been a pleasant surprise for the Brewers after he hit just 12 last season and started 2010 sharing playing time with Jim Edmonds (yes, he still plays baseball). Hart does have a few 20-homer campaigns to his credit, showed power potential in his minor league career and plays in hitter-friendly Miller Park in a hitting-happy Brewers lineup. Trade rumors and the possibility of a Home Run Derby jinx are concerns going forward, but even if Hart's homer rate does slow down, he's still a proven run producer who can hit for a nice average, which add to his fantasy value.

Pirates' Meek shall inherit

2010-07-05T12:34:00.000-04:00

Evan Meek has been one of baseball's best kept secrets in 2010.

It probably has to do with the fact he's a middle reliever on the Pittsburgh Pirates, a franchise that hasn't been relevant in a pennant race since 1997, when a gallon of gas cost $1.22 and "Titanic" first hit movie screens.

But Meek's done enough to grab the attention of NL All-Star team manager Charlie Manuel, who named the right-hander to this year's squad.

He's been phenomenal in his set-up role for the Pirates - his 0.98 ERA is the lowest among NL relievers, and he's allowed only 5 earned runs in 46 innings and a 42/11 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Meek may have been a surprising All-Star pick over teammate Andrew McCutchen, and he doesn't get the fantasy love of Pirates closer Octavio Dotel (19-for-22 in save chances), but the former Rule V draft pick from the Tampa Bay Rays deserves to represent his team in Anaheim next week.

I've always been a fan of using dominant middle relievers to bolster your ERA and WHIP when you can afford the roster space in mixed leagues, and hopefully vulturing some wins or saves in the process. And given the Pirates' dismal record and penchant for shedding veterans at the trade deadline, it could only be a matter of time before Dotel gets shipped off to a contender and Meek is closing out games for Pittsburgh. Grab him now if the rest of your league hasn't caught on.

Utley/Pedroia backup plans

2010-07-02T21:18:00.002-04:00

Two of fantasy's best second basemen went down with serious injuries in the past week: Chase Utley (thumb - 8 weeks) and Dustin Pedroia (foot - 6 weeks), major blows to a lot of fantasy squads.

While 2B-eligible breakout performers such as Ty Wigginton and Casey McGehee have long been claimed in most leagues, there are still some other under-the-radar choices that may be able to help:

Rockies 2B/SS Clint Barmes batted .313 in June to raise his season average to a more respectable .250 range after a brutal start to 2010. Don't forget this is a guy who had 23 homers and 12 steals last year.

Pirates rookie Neil Walker is just getting over a concussion, but before that he was hitting .295 with three homers, 12 RBIs and 2 steals in 28 games with Pittsburgh. And before that, he was hitting .321 with 6 homers, 26 RBIs and 10 steals in 43 games at Triple-A. Walker, the Pirates' first-round pick in 2004, will at least get regular playing time with disappointing Aki Iwamura out of the picture and has a chance to prove he's a big leaguer.

One of your leaguemates might have given up on White Sox 2B Gordon Beckham as he was mired in a hideous sophomore slump. But Becks was one of 2009's hottest rookie hitters and has finally begun to show some life (.333, four RBIs, five runs in his past six games) as the calendar flips to July. He's feeling more confident, and when you consider he played just 59 career games in the minors, you realize there's still hope for him to turn it around.

Royals 2B/SS Mike Aviles will never replicate the power of an Utley or Pedroia, but he can definitely help boost your average in their stead. He's batting .322 for the Royals this year.

Mat Latos: Leave off the last T for tremendous

2010-06-22T23:44:00.000-04:00

Mat "Don't Call Me Matt" Latos has been a fantasy revelation in 2010. The 22-year-old Padres hurler just dominated the Rays on Tuesday for his eighth victory of the year, pushing his record to 8-4.

Even better than the wins are the rest of his numbers - an ERA that's fallen to 2.94; a WHIP that's under 1.00 (79 Ks/22 BBs); and more than 8 strikeouts per 9 innings. Latos has been on an impressive roll - he notched his fourth straight win Tuesday, and if not for a few rocky starts in April, Latos would be among the league leaders in most pitching categories.

There's a decent chance he was dropped or unowned back then (I picked him up off waivers May 16 in my league, and he's been almost lights out since then). Now he's one of fantasy's top pitching commodities and is making his case to be a keeper. The 6-6 righty has the benefit of pitching home games in Petco Park, and his career minor league stats suggest none of this is a fluke. While fatigue and innings limits are always a concern with young hurlers, I wouldn't be looking to move Latos anytime soon, keeper league or otherwise. He's been one of fantasy's most pleasant surprises.

Photo by The Associated Press

Future fantasy all-stars

2010-06-21T17:11:00.001-04:00

Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN Fantasy wrote a great piece on what a 2014 fantasy all-star squad might look like.

It's pretty fascinating to think about which of today's players might have longevity and be top fantasy producers four years from now. It's also fun to look back at past predictions - Cockcroft's all-2007 list, written in 2004, included Marcus Giles, Rocco Baldelli and Mark Prior; his all-2012 list, done in 2008, had Russell Martin at catcher and Brandon Webb, Scott Kazmir and Jake Peavy in the rotation. Not looking so good right now.

Still, it's a pretty cool thought experiment, and it's particularly helpful for anyone competing in a keeper league. I just traded for Matt Wieters in mine, and it's good to see Cockcroft, and others, still predicting the Orioles catcher to be an all-star years from now despite this year's disappointing campaign thus far.

Robbie Cano's secret? Lady Gaga

2010-06-20T15:28:00.001-04:00

Wondering how Robinson Cano became arguably fantasy's best player in 2010? Maybe it has something to do with Lady Gaga.

Yes, apparently the two are pals. Gaga caused quite a stir Friday night at Yankee Stadium when she breezed past security to visit several Yankees players in the clubhouse after the game, including Cano. It didn't help that pop diva was downing whiskey and wearing an unbuttoned Yankee jersey, bra and bikini bottom, either.

No word on Cano's reaction, other than this quote to ESPNNewYork.com blogger Andrew Marchand:

"She can sing, I'll tell you that."

No doubt. And no word on the extent of Cano's relationship with Gaga, either. But from a fantasy perspective, he can hit, I'll tell you that.

Cano's always been a gifted hitter, but this year it's really been on display: Entering play Sunday, he led the majors with a .371 average, to go along with 14 HR, 49 RBIs and a .418 on-base percentage. With Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia both having so-so years (by their standards, at least), Cano is clearly the class of fantasy second basemen so far. But it goes beyond that - Cano's putting up offensive numbers to rival those of elite outfielders or corner infielders. The fact that he plays a position as thin as 2B makes him arguably fantasy's hitting MVP thus far.

If you're a Cano owner and you're worried about a second-half fade, don't. Over the past three years, Robbie has been a .329 hitter with a .901 OPS after the All-Star break, as opposed to .276/.740 before the break. He's also a career .312 hitter and has batted as high as .342 in 2005, so a batting title certainly wouldn't be out of the question this season.

Just about the only thing that could slow Cano in 2010 would be ... you guessed it ... a bad romance ...

Photos by The Associated Press

Vote for Pedro?

2010-06-17T13:09:00.001-04:00

Pirates fans are excited about this week's call-up of 3B prospect Pedro Alvarez, the second overall pick of the 2008 MLB Draft. And rightfully so - Pittsburgh is desperate for some star power, and Alvarez has that potential. Alvarez jacked 13 homers in 242 at-bats this year at Triple-A Indianapolis and projects to be a power-hitting corner outfielder for the Bucs for years to come. The 23-year-old has already relegated former prospect Andy LaRoche to the bench.

So what kind of fantasy impact can Alvarez make? The chance for regular playing time in Pittsburgh certainly helps his case, and power from the 3B position is at a premium. If things go well for the kid from here on out, you might expect 15 or so homers and a .270-.280ish average the rest of the way, which is nothing to sniff at in NL-only leagues. I'm not sure Pedro's ready to make much of a splash in mixed leagues yet as a regular fantasy starter, but he could be a useful player off your bench and definitely deserves consideration in keeper leagues.

What's up with A-Rod?

2010-06-13T14:37:00.000-04:00

Alex Rodriguez's recent hip troubles have to be making a whole lot of fantasy owners feel a little queasy.

A-Rod's been benched since tweaking his hip on Thursday, with the Yankees saying it's a case of tendinitis and isn't related to the hip surgery that cost the slugger more than a month of action in 2009. Rodriguez is expected to be back in the lineup Tuesday, but I wouldn't blame his owners for feeling uneasy right now. It's unnerving to have a guy who's probably your best hitter dealing with that type of injury.

Then again, A-Rod hasn't quite been the A-Rod of old so far. His 2010 stats aren't exactly eye-popping - .290, 8 HR, 43 RBIs - but he's capable of going on a tear at any point when healthy. Remember, Rodriguez hit 21 homers after this date (June 13) last year, and I could easily see him duplicating that in 2010. The Yanks are just being overly cautious with their prize commodity, and hopefully these days of rest are all he needs to get himself feeling good at the plate again. A-Rod is still a top option at 3B.

Strasburg's stellar start

2010-06-09T03:12:00.001-04:00

Rarely do fantasy prospects live up to the hype, especially in their major league debuts.

Stephen Strasburg must be one of a kind.

The Nationals phenom was stupendous in his first big league game Tuesday night, a 5-2 win over the Pirates. He electrified the D.C. crowd with a whopping 14 strikeouts, one shy of the record for an MLB debut (sobering note: the record of 15 is held by J.R. Richard and the immortal Karl Spooner).

Perhaps you watched the game on MLB Network: Strasburg showing an awesome repertoire and command of his pitches; the rookie needing only 94 pitches to breeze through seven innings, with his fastball reaching up to 100 mph and still blazing in the high 90s just before he left the game; Bob Costas waxing poetic about Strasburg being a potential Hall of Famer and Washington's best pitcher since Walter Johnson.

If you're a Strasburg owner, you've got to be grinning. The kid is a game-changer, for both the Nats and your fantasy squad. But if you're looking to sell high - and assuming you're not in a keeper league - his value might not be greater in 2010 than it is right now. I heard of an offer of Cliff Lee for Strasburg straight up in one league Tuesday, and that was before Strasburg even threw a pitch.

Strasburg may be great, but remember, this was only the Pirates, and there are bound to be some bumps this summer. I'd take the proven Lee, who's pitching at a Cy Young level so far, for Strasburg in a heartbeat. But again, there's no way I'm letting Strasburg slip away if I'm in a keeper league, and if I do trade him it's only for an elite starter or hitter in return. Otherwise, I can't wait to see what the kid does for an encore.

Photo by The Associated Press

Podcasting pleasure

2010-06-06T01:19:00.001-04:00

Herald colleague and podcasting fool Jason Dill and I are back with another Fantasy Focus baseball podcast for the month of June.

Click on the link to hear our take on some impact rookies (Michael Stanton, Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward); what to do with struggling stars (Carlos Pena, Wandy Rodriguez, Josh Beckett, Grady Sizemore), Kendry Morales; and fantasy's best pitcher so far in 2010 (surprise, it's not Tim Lincecum).

Also, listen closely for the souped-up intro by the mighty Metallica ...

SI reporter not a fantasy fan

2010-06-04T11:44:00.000-04:00

Sports Illustrated's Don Banks isn't a fan of fantasy football, but admits it isn't going away any time soon.

What's your take? Is Banks way off base, or does he have a point? Has this fantasy thing gotten out of control? Have we lost touch with what the game of football is really about? Post your comments below.

Strasburg, Stanton are coming

2010-06-02T13:36:00.002-04:00

Looking for reinforcements for your fantasy team? Look no further than two super prospects who are coming to a stadium near you.

Start with Washington wunderkind Stephen Strasburg, who's been blowing them away (6-2 1.43 ERA in 10 starts between Double-A and Triple-A) and packing in the stands in the minor leagues. The rookie is set to make his major league debut June 8 in Pittsburgh, and the baseball world is already buzzing. A friend of mine who works in the Nationals organization and has watched many of Strasburg's starts (they're shown on MASN, the Nats' TV partner) was raving to me last week about the righty's tantalizing mix of 99 mph fastballs and 89 mph change-ups. Fantasy players should be excited, too, and will want to have Strasburg on their team and in their lineups, because there's a good chance he can be an immediate contributor.

If you already missed the boat on the much-hyped Strasburg but still want to bolster your lineup with a top prospect, turn your attention to the Marlins' Michael Stanton, a power-hitting outfielder who's already unleashed some legendary home runs.

Stanton, a 6-foot-5, 240-pound 20-year-old (please don't confuse him with former MLB pitcher Mike Stanton!) already has 20 homers and 50 RBIs in 48 games this year and has been favorably compared to the Braves' Jason Heyward in his power potential. While he has shown a tendency to strike out too much (50/40 K/BB ratio this year), that can be forgiven if he can give us 20 or so homers at the major league level this season. The Marlins have already delayed Stanton's arbitration eligibility by keeping him in the minors this long, so there's a strong possibility we'll see him in the show in the next week or two.

If you're jealous of other fantasy owners who grabbed Heyward or Strasburg in your draft, picking up Stanton -owned in just 3.8% of ESPN fantasy leagues - would be a nice consolation prize.

Give it up for Ubaldo

2010-06-01T12:49:00.000-04:00

The early pick for fantasy's best pitcher in 2010 is Ubaldo Jimenez, and it's not even close.

Before the season you would have guessed Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay or maybe CC Sabathia or Zack Greinke. And while all of those guys have made their share of positive contributions, Jimenez has topped them all.

A record of 10-1. An ERA of 0.78. A 0.90 WHIP. Seventy strikeouts against 26 walks.

The numbers for the Colorado Rockies ace are nearly impeccable. He's this year's Greinke - a guy we knew was good, but never dreamed could be THIS good. Outdueling Lincecum? Leading the majors in wins? Putting up better stats than Halladay? If you saw all that coming, take a bow, because you're smarter than everyone else.

So can Jimenez keep it up? I don't see why not. The 26-year-old is on a roll, and while his ratios are probably due for some regression, there's no reason he can't keep up a Cy Young-caliber season. I wouldn't consider selling high on him unless I were getting an top-flight fantasy ace (Lincecum/Halladay) or an elite hitter in return.

Photo by The Associated Press

Sizemore's sad story

2010-05-31T14:09:00.000-04:00

Remember when Grady Sizemore was a fantasy stud?

It wasn't that long ago. In fact, as recently as 2008 he became only the 14th American League player to put up a 30-30 season.

Then came the elbow/groin injuries and a subpar 2009 campaign (18 homers, 64 RBIs, .248 average). And we don't even need to remind you of those ill-advised, somewhat scandalous photos that ended up in the blogosphere.

Sizemore's stock fell along with his numbers, but there was speculation he might have a bounce-back season for the Indians this year. He was kept in my league this year by a leaguemate who boldly predicted Sizemore would be a top-20 player this year.

That leaguemate dropped Sizemore today.

A stat line of .211/0 HR/13 RBIs and the announcement of left knee surgery made the choice a lot easier for him. I'm not sure I'd drop Sizemore outright if I could afford to stash him on my bench - the timetable for his return is said to be 6-to-8 weeks - but it looks increasingly likely Sizemore won't come close to the lofty expectations many had for him in 2010.

Can he still be a useful fantasy commodity this year? Possibly. Will he ever return to being a fantasy stud with a rare blend of speed and power? That's an open question at this point.

Rolling the Dice

2010-05-28T12:43:00.002-04:00

So I decided to roll the dice (pardon the awful pun) on Daisuke Matsuzaka for a spot start Thursday night against the Royals.

After all, he was coming of a near no-hitter in his last start, the Red Sox had won five straight and, hey, it's the Royals.

The good news: Dice-K had a two-hitter this time out.

The bad news: He only lasted 4 2/3 innings, gave up three runs and, oh yeah, walked eight batters.

Go figure. Matsuzaka has to be one of the most maddening pitchers in the major leagues when it comes to fantasy. The way he fluctuates from season-to-season and game-to-game is almost impossible to read. The talent's there, but he's just not worth the roller-coaster ride.

I think I'm done with the start-and-dump strategy for a while now after getting burned by Joel Pineiro (nine runs) and now Dice-K (eight walks) in the past week.

And whatever happened to that darn "gyroball" anyway?

Photo by The Associated Press

Did you know?

2010-05-26T11:59:00.002-04:00

Did you know that ...

Washington Nationals reliever Tyler Clippard has as many wins (7) as Felix Hernandez (2), Cliff Lee (2), Josh Beckett (1), Zack Greinke (1) and Carlos Zambrano (1) combined?

Nats closer Matt Capps has as many saves (16) as Mariano Rivera (8) and Francisco Rodriguez (8)?

The Blue Jays' Jose Bautista has as many homers (14) as Matt Holliday (5) Aramis Ramirez (4), Jason Bay (3) and Manny Ramirez (2)?

The Brewers' Casey McGehee has as many RBIs (39) as Derrek Lee (20) and Prince Fielder (19)?

Just saying.

Fantasy's a funny game.

Feeling LOST

2010-05-24T01:52:00.001-04:00

So I've been feeling a little lost lately ... and it's not just because I just finished watching the LOST series finale (sooooo were they dead the whole time or what? In purgatory? My head hurts) ...

No, I'm feeling lost because it seems like every move I've made with my fantasy team the past few days has horribly backfired.

Case in point: I'm in desperate need of some power, so I traded for Carlos Pena last week, figuring he's due to snap out of it and smash some round-trippers sooner or later. But I figure I'll keep him on my bench for a while since he hadn't even been hitting .100 this month.

Of course he goes and hits not one but two homers Thursday against the Yankees that are of absolutely no use to me.

Oh, I had him in my lineup Friday, Saturday and Sunday after that - when he went a combined 1-for-11 with no homers.

Similar story with Jason Bay, who had gone deep just once all year and was killing my HR total. Finally benched him Saturday against the Yanks and he goes 4-for-4 ... kept him on the bench Sunday figuring he wouldn't do much damage against CC Sabathia (1-for-9 lifetime) and he jacks not one but two homers. Foiled again.

Rough time with my pitching, too, where I'm in just as desperate need of wins. Figured I'd do the grab-and-start thing with Joel Pineiro - picked him up off the waiver wire as he was coming off a complete-game, four-hit shutout and was pitching at St. Louis (where he put up some great numbers both with the Cardinals and as an opposing pitcher - up until Friday, that is). Of course he lasts just three innings, coughing up nine earned runs on nine hits, including a grand slam to Brad Penny of all people.

Thanks for playing, Joel.

Maybe I'm the one who's stuck in purgatory, and my team isn't going anywhere until I make the right choice.

I just hope there's some kind of bright light for my team at the end of all this.

No way, Jose! Contreras a closer

2010-05-22T01:49:00.000-04:00

Talk about a blast from the past: Jose Contreras is a legit fantasy contributor.

Yup, that Jose Contreras, the guy listed in your Philadelphia Phillies media guide as a 38-year-old but who may be 5 or even 10 years older than that.

The Phillies picked him up off the scrap heap this year and, as luck would have it, they had to turn to him as their de facto closer after Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson ended up on the DL. Contreras has responded by going 2-for-2 in save opportunities in the past week while sporting a 0.63 ERA and 20/2 K/BB ratio for the year.

Not bad for an old guy who's learning on the job.

With Madson on the 60-day DL and the always-shaky Lidge still not having a timetable for his return from elbow inflammation, Contreras is a must-grab fantasy option. JC Romero did earn a save Friday against Boston, but Contreras had pitched the night before and still looks like the Phils' go-to guy in the ninth for the time being, so get him while you can.

Is a 135.00 ERA bad?

2010-05-20T00:07:00.004-04:00

Had Kerry Wood in my lineup Wednesday night against the Kansas City Royals.

He entered the top of the ninth with the Indians ahead 4-3.

I'm feeling good.

Then this happened:

M Aviles tripled to deep right.
D DeJesus reached on infield single to pitcher.
B Butler doubled to deep right, M Aviles scored, D DeJesus to third. GAME TIED 4-4.
J Guillen struck out looking.
A Callaspo intentionally walked.
M Maier walked, D DeJesus scored, B Butler to third, A Callaspo to second. ROYALS 5, INDIANS 4.
Y Betancourt doubled to deep center, B Butler, A Callaspo and M Maier scored. ROYALS 8, INDIANS 4.
J Wright relieved K Wood.

That's four hits, five runs, 1 out, one blown save, one loss and a 135.00 ERA for the night.

Not 1.35 ... 135.00.

Is Wood in danger of losing his job so quickly after coming off the DL? It's possible. But remember, this is essentially Wood's spring training, and while he probably won't morph into an elite closer, he could round into form and at least be serviceable.

I'm probably picking up Bradenton's Chris Perez though, just in case.

Pat Burrell, Hank Blalock & Ronnie James Dio

2010-05-18T02:54:00.009-04:00

I was trolling around YouTube and thinking about Ronnie James Dio tonight and wondering how I could incorporate the late metal legend into a fantasy blog post. Then it hit me: the title of the tune posted above perfectly sums up the Pat Burrell Experience the past two seasons - and it also gives me a great excuse to post a video of the funny little old dude with the huge voice, who lost his battle to cancer over the weekend at age 67.

OK, so maybe it's a stretch, but it's the best I could come up with - I'm not even sure what a Holy Diver or a Neon Knight is, so this is all I've got.

Anyway, back to Burrell, who was designated for assignment the other day by the Rays after nearly a year-and-a-half of disappointment. Burrell was batting .202 with two homers and 13 RBIs for Tampa Bay this season on the heels of a .221/14/64 season last year - paltry numbers for an American League DH who signed for big bucks. In fact, Burrell ended up clearing $16 million from the Rays, or $1 million per home run, before falling off the edge of the world.

Shameful.

Those who gambled that 2009 was an aberration and took a flier on Burrell this year have to be sorely disappointed, and probably dropped "Pat the Bat" by now. There's a decent chance Burrell will clear waivers and get picked up by another team desperate for another bat, but it's hard to envision a scenario where Burrell will have any real fantasy value from here on out. And that's amazing for a guy who hit 33 homers and knocked in 134 runs just two seasons ago with the Phillies.

Burrell's replacement on the Rays' roster is a familiar face: Hank Blalock, last seen swatting 25 homers for the Texas Rangers in 2009. Tampa Bay signed signed Blalock to a minor-league deal in the offseason, and he was tearing it up in Triple-A (.349, four homers, 24 RBIs) before his call-up. There's still some life left in his bat, but his appearances could be sparse as a DH/backup corner infielder. But he's sleeper who might be able to help you for a stretch if he's on a hot streak. You might even call him ... a Rainbow in the Dark.

Or not.

I tried.

R.I.P. Ronnie.

Is Todd Helton toast?

2010-05-16T01:20:00.000-04:00

Todd Helton's hitting .257.

Terrible? No. But not what you bargained for, either. Not when we're talking about a career .327 hitter you drafted specifically for batting average help.

Helton's not a home run hitter anymore - that 49-homer season in 2001 during Coors Field's heyday as a hitter's haven seems like ages ago. Helton managed just 15 homers last year and hasn't gone deep yet this year, so he's not going to help you in that department. He's not a big run-producer anymore either (he hasn't topped 90 RBIs since 2007), and he sure isn't a base stealer (six in the past eight seasons). Which means it's average or nothing for Helton when it comes to fantasy.

Now, I know what you're saying: Helton hit .325 last year, is he really finished?

The sad truth is he might be. His batting average on balls in play (.310) does suggest he's been a little bit unlucky (that number was .348 last year. But he's also hitting just as many line drives as last year,just without any power (just a .295 slugging percentage).

Oh, and Helton's also on the wrong side of 30 - 36 to be exact. He might still be able to snap out of it and salvage a .300 average, but do you really have time to wait for him? And do you have a spot on your roster for a 1B who doesn't hit home runs anymore? I know I don't.

Pena's power outage

2010-05-14T18:48:00.001-04:00

Carlos Pena's .183 batting average got you down?

We all knew going into the season the Tampa Bay Rays slugger wasn't going to win a batting title - after all, he hit .227 last year and carries a .245 lifetime average. But you still had to figure Pena would at least hit his weight (He's listed at 225 pounds, for the record). It's gotten so bad (he was in a 1-for-37 slump entering Friday night's game) that he was benched earlier this week, in part to get a mental break.

Of course, every player goes through slumps, especially one as hot-and-cold as Pena. But the thing that really bothers you is this season's power outage. Pena's got five homers this year, or one per every 23 at-bats. In the past three seasons (his coming-of-age years with the Rays), he's gone deep every 12, 15 and 10 at-bats, respectively.

It's a bit puzzling, considering Pena, a notorious strikeout artist, is still whiffing at just about the same rate he always has. However, he's hitting many more ground balls compared to fly balls than usual, and only 12% of the fly balls he does hit have gone for home runs, compared to 21% last year.

Is Pena pressing, as this week's benching suggests? Is the free-agent-to-be worried about his contract status for next year, as chronicled by Sports Illustrated? Could be. But ultimately, I'm not going to worry about it too much. Pena's one of the league's elite home run hitters and is still in his prime. I believe this is just an unfortunately timed and prolonged slump, and he's still capable of approaching 40 homers this season, which is exactly what you expected out of him. I just pulled off a straight-up trade for him in my main league for Francisco Cordero, and I feel pretty good about it. Pena's power will come.

Photo by The Associated Press

Listen up: Fantasy Focus podcast

2010-05-08T16:56:00.005-04:00

Our first Fantasy Focus podcast of the year is now posted on Bradenton.com.

Herald staffer Jason Dill and I chatted about some possible buy low and sell high candidates, from Mark Teixeira to David Ortiz to Paul Konerko to Stephen Strasburg. If you've always wondered what my voice sounded like, this is your big chance.

Got a fantasy question? Post a comment here and we may answer it on our next podcast.

Gettin' Wiggy with it

2010-05-07T02:13:00.009-04:00

Make a short list of the early 2010 fantasy surprises and Ty Wigginton has to be in the mix.

Wiggy's 10 homers rank him second behind only Paul Konerko in the American League. He's also hitting .299 with 19 RBIs - not bad for a guy who likely went undrafted in your fantasy league.

So is he for real?

Wigginton's always had some pop - he's averaged 23 homers per 162 games in his career. Problem is, he's often been a utility/bench player and was in fact penciled in for that role with the Orioles this year before starting 2B Brian Roberts landed on the DL.

Roberts is supposed to be back in June, which might lead you to believe Wigginton's playing time is endangered. Also, Wigginton won't be able to keep up this HR pace - unless you think he'll be a 50-homer guy this year.

Still, the O's will find ways to get him at-bats, and I'm not sold that Roberts' lingering back troubles will completely go away. Wigginton may turn out to be a valuable player all year, and if you picked him up off the waiver wire and can use him as an occasional fill-in, more power to you. But if you're looking to sell high and ship him off for a steadier commodity, Wiggy's value may never be higher than it is right now.

Strasburg is coming

2010-05-05T13:44:00.005-04:00

If you've been waiting for Stephen Strasburg to save your fantasy team, you're in luck. The first overall pick of the 2009 MLB draft was promoted to Triple-A on Tuesday, putting him one step closer to his big league debut.

Strasburg tore through Double-A (3-1, 1.64 ERA, 27 Ks, 6 BBs in 22 innings), and if he can duplicate that performance at the next level, it's only a matter of time before we see the righty in a Washington Nationals uniform. In fact, it's likely the biggest roadblock keeping Strasburg from the majors is the Nats' desire to delay his free agency eligibility, a move we've seen with plenty of other big-time prospects, from Evan Longoria to Matt Wieters.

If you're in a shallow league and Strasburg is still available, now is the time to get him. Sure, expectations will probably be way too high for a first-year pitcher, but he's got more potential to be a difference-maker than most starters you can find on the waiver wire at this point.

Francisco Liriano: Steal of the year?

2010-05-03T23:11:00.005-04:00

Francisco Liriano was the AL pitcher of the month for April.

He may end up being the steal of the year in fantasy.

Liriano has sparkled so far for the Twins - 4-0, 1.50 ERA, 36 Ks and 13 BBs in 36 innings. This came on the heels of the left-hander absolutely dominating winter league ball and throwing his name in the hat as a fantasy sleeper for 2010.

We all remember Liriano from that superb 2006, when he looked like the second coming of Johan Santana in a Twins uniform. Unfortunately, we also remember his 2007, which was cut short by major elbow surgery, and his ill-fated 2008 campaign (5-13, 5.80 ERA).

But now, Liriano seems to have regained that magical form as he puts the elbow troubles behind him. His velocity is back up. He hasn't allowed a homer yet this year after serving up 21 longballs in 136 innings last season. He's holding opponents to a .206 average after they raked him at a .279 clip last year. And he's getting almost twice as many ground outs as flyouts this season, a ratio similar to his breakout 2006 but one which withered the past two years.

I believe Liriano's health and consistency will hold up for the long haul this time. If you rolled the dice on him in your draft or picked him up on the waiver wire in the early going, give yourself a pat on the back and don't think about trading him at this point.

Photo by The Associated Press

Nice guys finish last

2010-05-02T23:32:00.014-04:00

"Nice guys finish last."

Somebody told me that once a long time ago (maybe it was Kevin Arnold on "Wonder Years," I'm not certain).

If it's true, I must be one of the nicest darn guys you'll ever meet.

My fantasy baseball team's in last place.

Dead last.

It's an unenviable position - especially when it's a newsroom fantasy league, and you're the newspaper's fantasy sports "expert."

So what's gone wrong?

Well for starters, I currently have four players on the DL - not counting Cliff Lee, who just came off.

I've been without Jacoby Ellsbury, one of my five "keepers" entering the season and a starting OF, for a while now. And I just lost Brett Anderson, who was looking pretty good and for whom I had pretty high hopes this year.

I've suffered through some pretty awful - and I mean awful - pitching by Frank Francisco and Octavio Dotel, two of my "closers."

Didn't count on Adam Jones having 6 RBIs at this point either. Or Jason Bay one HR. Or Zack Greinke zero wins. Or Juan Pierre hitting .184, or Derrek Lee .217.

But it's not all bad.

Cliff Lee looked pretty good in his first start back from the DL, and hopefully he'll regain the Cy Young form I bargained for when I rolled the dice on him.

Ryan Zimmerman is going to have a great year if he can put his hamstring troubles behind him.

Hideki Matsui's been a bargain, and Casey McGehee's been a real find.

And Greinke's got to win a game sooner or later.

If he doesn't, I'm bound to stay stuck in last place for the long haul.

At least I'm a nice guy.

2010 NFL Draft's best fantasy prospects

2010-04-26T21:17:00.020-04:00

Now that the dust has settled from ESPN'S three-day NFL Draft extravaganza (is that Alicia Keys/Jay-Z song stuck in anybody else's head?), there's a rush to grade every team's picks. While it's way too early to truly assess a draft class - generally it takes three years to really see how one pans out - there's no need to wait for some fantasy analysis.

So which skill players taken over the weekend in NYC are ready to contribute to your fantasy team in 2010?

QBs get all the headlines, but they rarely become fantasy factors in their first year. I'm not too interested in having Sam Bradford or Jimmy Cluasen on my squad as rookies. Colt McCoy probably won't even suit up in 2010. And we've already dissected Tim Tebow's fantasy prospects in this space. I'll pass.

I'd already tabbed C.J. Spiller as the most NFL-ready fantasy contributor heading into the draft, but unfortunately he landed in Buffalo, where there isn't much of an offensive line to speak of, the QB situation is unsettled to say the least, and Spiller will have to compete with Fred Jackson and Marhsawn Lynch for touches (assuming both stick around). Spiller's one to watch, but being a Bill is a bit of a bummer.

Jahvid Best has it a little better in Detroit, where his main backfield competition will come from Kevin Smith, who's still recovering from major knee surgery. The speedy Best can make an instant impact, provided the Lions can figure out how to block for him.

Ryan Matthews is the first-round RB who may have the easiest path to fantasy relevance, as he was drafted by San Diego to be LaDainian Tomlinson's successor and where Darren Sproles is still just a change-of-pace back. The Fresno State product will get first crack at carrying the rock in a powerful Chargers offense.

Also, don't forget about Heisman finalist Toby Gerhart, who becomes a potential handcuff for Vikings starter Adrian Peterson as he tries to fill the departed Chester Taylor's shoes.

Among wideouts, the two most intriguing, fantasy-wise, are Dez Bryant in Dallas and Golden Tate in Seattle. The Cowboys' selection of Bryant is pretty much an admission that the Roy Williams experiment has been a failure, and if the rookie can earn enough playing time and find some chemistry with Tony Romo, good things could be in store. Same goes for Tate, who could become an important piece of Pete Carroll's offense with the Seahawks.

I'm also interested to see Arrelious Benn in a Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniform. The kid's probably been NFL-ready since his freshman year at Illinois, and he'll have every opportunity to step in and be the go-to receiver young Bucs QB Josh Freeman sorely needs.

Demaryius Thomas also has a shot at immediate playing time for Josh McDaniels in Denver, but the Broncos' QB situation isn't quite ideal.

One more 2010 draftee to keep an eye on: Taylor Price in New England. Price flew under the radar at Ohio University, but the Patriots have a way of making unheralded players into stars.

Is Tim Tebow a fantasy prospect?

2010-04-24T17:46:00.006-04:00

To put it simply: No.

Not in 2010, anyway.

But can he be, eventually?

It's possible.

Even casual fans know Tim Tebow is not a polished product. If you've seen him running Urban Meyer's offense in Gainesville, you know it bears little resemblance to today's NFL. He can't step in right away in Week 1 and be an effective pro starter and fantasy force the way Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco were two seasons ago.

Even the Denver Broncos brass knows that, though they probably won't admit it. Tebow's going to need some tutelage, and they believe head coach Josh McDaniels is the guy for the job. He worked wonders with a little-known sixth-rounder (Tom Brady) who became a Hall of Famer under his watch, and then McDaniels made a guy who hadn't started a game since high school (Matt Cassel) into a legitimate starting QB.

Tebow will be given a shot to earn the starting job in 2010, and while he's probably not ready to beat out incumbent Kyle Orton or Brady Quinn this summer, neither of those guys are exactly entrenched starters who can never be toppled. Tebow will spend next year running Denver's "Wild Horses" package - their version of the wildcat - while learning the QB position. That still probably won't be enough to make Tebow fantasy-relevant, but McDaniels and the Broncos are going to give him every chance to make that the case in 2011.

So, no, even the most diehard Gator backers don't want Tebow on their fantasy roster next season.

But after that, it's certainly possible.

- Photo by The Associated Press

Believe in McGehee

2010-04-22T18:51:00.014-04:00

Casey McGehee hit a very quiet 16 homers last year for the Brewers but was still ignored in a lot of mixed-league drafts in 2010. But since the start of the season, he's been hard not to notice.

McGehee was carrying a .400 batting average last weekend (he's currently "cooled off" to .368) and had blasted four homers, or three more than Brewer bud Prince Fielder. He's got a 1.152 OPS, has an equal number of walks and strikeouts (seven) and has knocked in a run in eight of his past 10 games. And he's in the top eight in the NL in almost all relevant hitting statistics (BA, HR, RBI, SLG, OPS).

In other words, he's on fire.

Obviously, McGehee's numbers are due for a little bit of regression. He was a career .279/.331/.409 hitter in the minors - not bad, but not exactly Albert Pujols either. Still, he's got a prime spot in a potent Brewers lineup (perhaps you saw the 20-spot they put on the Pirates on Thursday?), and he qualifies at both 2B and 3B in fantasy.

Given how lightly regarded McGehee was in the preseason - he sat on the waiver wire in my 10-team mixed league until I got him on April 8 - he may end up being one of the steals of the season.

Photo by The Associated Press

'Silly Little Game' a great little film

2010-04-21T01:48:00.010-04:00

Just got done watching ESPN's latst 30 for 30 documentary, "Silly Little Game," about the birth of "rotisserie" baseball, the forerunner of all fantasy sports.

The documentary, directed by Adam Kurland and Lucas Jensen, traces the origins of the game we love back to La Rotisserie Francaise, a New York City restaurant circa 1979 where a group of self-described geeks set in motion what would become a $4 billion industry enjoyed by millions.

"Silly Little Game" hilariously recreates those landmark early moments, from Rotisserie League founder Dan Okrent's grand unveiling of his invention to fantasy's "founding fathers" holding the first draft (complete with the reenactors donning Thomas Jefferson-inspired colonial garb). The founders' recollections of that first draft are fascinating and all-too-familiar to today's fantasy players - from a bunch of guys (and one gal) crunching numbers on cheat sheets, to the unending search for a diamond in the rough ("I'll take Neil Allen" ... "Who's Neil Allen?).

The current generation of fantasy leaguers will be left aghast at explanations of how these fantasy OGs kept stats BY HAND and faxed updated league standings to one another. Yet it's amazing how little the essential facets of the game have changed in 30 years. Okrent's creation was near-perfect from its inception - from the draft and roster formats to the invention of the WHIP statistic to help better gauge pitcher's performances.

Kurland and Jensen paint the original Rotisserie leaguers as tragic figures, unable to fully cash in on their invention as it gained popularity and exploded with the Internet age. Yet their passion for (or as they readily admit, obsession with) the game that so many of us now enjoy are evident on screen. "Silly Little Game" offers both an enjoyable look back at fantasy's roots and some insights into what makes it so addictive.

If you missed the orginal broadcast, go here for encore showtimes.

What's up with Zack Greinke?

2010-04-19T01:30:00.010-04:00

Anyone else been burned by Zack Greinke in 2010?

The Kansas City Royals ace certainly hasnn't shown last year's Cy Young Award form - 0-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in three stars so far.

Some further disturbing facts:

- He allowed only four earned runs in his first eight starts last year; he's given up seven in three starts in 2010.

- He walked five batters in Friday's loss to Minnesota; he didn't walk that many in a game all of last season.

- Opposing batters have a .764 OPS against him; last year that number was .611.

And then there's this quote:

"I just think my mind's not right on how to pitch because every game I've been able to throw the ball close to where I want. I'm just not getting the job done."

Doesn't excactly make me feel much better about my investment - especially one who's dealt with some off-field mental issues in the recent past.

However, there is some good news. Opposing hitters' batting average on balls in play is .321, a rather high number (last year it was .307). And also: It's only been three starts! No way am I ready to write this kid off after such a sublime season.

Be patient. No need to panic.

Yet.

- Photo by The Associated Press

Happy birthday, fantasy baseball

2010-04-15T23:07:00.005-04:00

Fantasy baseball was born 30 years ago this week.

To celebrate, ESPN is offering a bunch of retrospective goodies, including next week's 30 for 30 documentary, "Silly Little Game" (8 p.m. Tuesday, ESPN), a look back at the birth of the first "rotisserie" league in a New York City restaurant.

They've also posted on ESPN.com a terriffic year-by-year look at the best fantasy hitters and pitchers of the past 30 years. You better believe Albert Pujols makes it more than a few times, but it's also funny to see blasts from the past like Eric Gagne, Kevin Brown and Ellis Burks make the cut.

Fun stuff.