8/8 Sleeper of the Day: Matthew Stafford

QB MATTHEW STAFFORD, LIONS

What's this? A recommendation for a Detroit quarterback? No joke!

OK, so Stafford didn't exactly take the fantasy world by storm in Year 1, and nobody's confusing the kid with Bobby Layne yet. But there's a lot to like here in 2010.

For starters, let's begin with what's NOT here: No Daunte Culpepper to take away valuable snaps or practice reps from the developing Stafford, and no shoulder and knee injuries that hampered him throughout his rookie season. Stafford was forced to miss six games last year, and while his stats in the remaining 10 weren't all that pretty (13 TDs, 20 INTs), he'll have the benefit of being the team's unquestioned starter from the opening of camp and a having year under his belt.

Now, for the really exciting part. Not only does Stafford have Calvin Johnson, who's on the cusp of becoming the game's best receiver, as his main target, but the Lions have upgraded the rest of their offensive weapons. In the offseason they added WR Nate Burleson and TE Tony Scheffler and drafted explosive RB Jahvid Best and are starting to look like a professional football team. True, it could all be for naught if Detroit's offensive line does the same swiss cheese impression as last year and stunts Stafford's development. But that unit should improve, and so should Stafford. He's not ready to make the jump to No. 1 fantasy starter just yet, but I contend he'll make for a serviceable and underrated backup this year.

Fantasy Focus podcast - football edition

Colleague Jason Dill and I did our first football edition of the Fantasy Focus podcast this year for your listening pleasure. This week we discussed a few of the sleepers and busts I've been blogging about, plus some strategies to consider as you prep for your draft. Enjoy.

8/7 Bust of the day: Thomas Jones

RB THOMAS JONES, Chiefs

TJ outperformed fantasy expectations in each of the past two seasons, but he's never really been a by-the-book guy anyway. Running backs aren't supposed to have career years at the ages of 30 and 31, but that's exactly what he did in 2008 and 2009, running for a combined 2,714 yards and 27 TDs with the Jets. And what does he have to show for it? Walking papers handed to him in the offseason by New York, which replaced him with a younger, less expensive model in Shonn Greene.

The reason Jones was able to be so effective in his golden years - aside from the Jets' excellent run-blocking - is the fact that he had much less tread on his tires than other RBs his age. Remember, he was lightly used in his first four seasons with the Cardinals and Bucs, failing to attempt even 140 carries each year. And now, part of the reason I'm tagging him as a bust is he made up for lost time with a whopping 331 carries last year. We got a glimpse of how much of a toll that took on Jones by playoff time, when he couldn't muster more than 42 yards in three postseason games and was phased out in favor of Greene.

As if his age and mileage weren't enough to make you back off, Jones also has to contend with another up-and-coming young back, Jamaal Charles, in his new home in Kansas City. Like two ships passing in the night, expect Charles to get the bulk of the carries, perhaps as many as two-thirds, as Jones is used in moderation. He'll still have value, just not what we've been accustomed to seeing out of him. Think of him as a No. 3 or 4 RB.

Photo by McClatchy Tribune

8/6 Sleeper of the Day: Jermichael Finley

TE JERMICHAEL FINLEY, PACKERS

Depending on the savviness of your fellow leaguemates, Finley could be an absolute steal for you in the later rounds – or he’ll be snatched up way earlier than you ever dreamed. He’s getting a lot of hype this preseason, and with good reason.

At 6-foot-5 and 243 pounds Finley's a physical specimen, and he finished strong in 2009 as he took over the starting role from Donald Lee. He caught four of his five TDs in the final five weeks of the season last year, then topped that off with a six-catch, 159-yard destruction of Arizona's defense in a wild-card playoff loss. As he enters his third pro season he's become a favorite target of up-and-coming QB Aaron Rodgers, and though the Pack like to spread the ball around, Finley was still fourth in red-zone targets among TEs. We could see him double that TD number this year with a full season as Green Bay's No. 1 TE, which would put Finley among the top 5 options at the position in 2010.

8/5 Bust of the Day: Donovan McNabb

QB DONOVAN McNABB, REDSKINS

The way the Eagles unceremoniously dumped their franchise QB wasn’t right, but unfortunately for McNabb, he’s not in a better place. Washington was inept at protecting Jason Campbell last year (46 sacks allowed, 5th most in NFL), and it’ll be breaking in a rookie left tackle (Trent Williams) in place of retired vet Chris Samuels this year. Factor in the downgrades at WR and the M.A.S.H. unit at RB (Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, Willie Parker), and McNabb doesn’t figure to have a lot of help around him.

Sure, he still has fantasy value as a backup QB. New Redskins coach Mike Shanahan will put McNabb in situations where he can succeed, and he’ll have his share of big games as always, but it looks like his days of being a consistent No. 1 are over. The Eagles' willingness to trade him to a division rival this offseason is perhaps the most telling signal he's in decline.

8/4 Sleeper of the Day: Ryan Matthews

RB RYAN MATTHEWS, CHARGERS

Matthews may not be as flashy or as well known as fellow rookie RBs C.J. Spiller or Jahvid Best, but he’s stepping into an ideal situation in San Diego, at least for our purposes. The first-rounder from Fresno State will be a part of an explosive Chargers offense with a good offensive line, and with LaDainian Tomlinson out of the picture, his only competition for carries is the diminutive Darren Sproles.

Much of the country didn’t see Matthews tearing it up in the WAC last year, where he led the nation with 1,808 rushing yards (6.6 a carry, 150 a game) and scored 19 TDs on 276 carries. He’s proven himself as a workhorse, but he’s also got quite a burst (seven TD runs of 50 yards or more last year).

If all goes well, Matthews should surpass LT2’s 2009 stats, and while I have a hard time counting on a rookie as my No. 1 RB, he’ll make an excellent No. 2 with upside.

Give 'em Hellickson

Tampa Bay is still buzzing about top pitching prospect Jeremy Hellickson, who blazed past the Twins in his MLB debut on Monday.

"Hellboy" retired the first 10 batters he faced, finishing with three hits allowed, six strikeouts and two earned runs in seven innings. The 23-year-old looked cool, calm and collected while mixing a 92-93 mph fastball with an 82 mph change and keeping the Minnesota hitters off balance.

While Hellickson had been dominant at Triple-A this year to the tune of an 11-2 record, 2.21 ERA and 104/26 K/BB ratio, the righty's being sent back to the farm after giving Tampa Bay's starters an extra day of rest. But you have to figure we'll see him in a Rays uniform again soon after such a successful debut, most likely in the bullpen this September, a la David Price in 2008. Of course if there's an injury in the Rays rotation, they now know they have a spot starter who's proven he can hang with the big boys. For that reason, Hellickson could be worth hanging onto in most fantasy leagues and should certainly be scooped up in keeper leagues.


Photo by The Associated Press