Friday, August 20, 2010

8/20 Bust of the Day: Mike Sims-Walker


Sims-Walker's emergence in 2009 was one of those pleasant surprises that pops up every year in fantasy. The second-year receiver was an afterthought at the start of the year but finished with 869 yards and 7 TDs, proving to be one of the season's best waiver wire pickups.

Skip ahead to 2010 and Sims-Walker is being touted as a solid WR2 and a breakout candidate according to the third-year receiver theory. But before we get carried away, let's think this through, shall we?

MSW wasn't a big-time prospect when he was taken in the third round of the 2007 draft out of UCF - not that that's a prerequisite for fantasy success, but it does have some bearing. He was able to take a lot of people by surprise last year but won't have that advantage now that there's a full season of tape on him for opponents to study. The Jags are also still searching for another credible WR to line up opposite MSW. Second-year pro Mike Thomas might be that man - reports are that he's actually outplayed Sims-Walker at times this camp, another troublesome development - but the jury's still out. And Jacksonville QB David Garrard also has to be considered a question mark as he hasn't shown much improvement since becoming a full-time starter.

A closer look at Sims-Walker's numbers last year reveals he had just three 100-yard games (against Arizona, St. Louis and Kansas City), and he trailed off badly in the second half as he was plagued by nagging injuries. He also had a puzzling habit of playing much better at home than on the road, averaging 5.5 catches, 80 yards and .75 TDs a game in the J-A-X and 3.2 catches, 37 yards and .16 TDs per road game.

In short, I'm just not sold on this guy as a No. 2 fantasy receiver I can count on, and I think there are others with more upside.

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