Friday, August 6, 2010

8/6 Sleeper of the Day: Jermichael Finley




TE JERMICHAEL FINLEY, PACKERS

Depending on the savviness of your fellow leaguemates, Finley could be an absolute steal for you in the later rounds – or he’ll be snatched up way earlier than you ever dreamed. He’s getting a lot of hype this preseason, and with good reason.

At 6-foot-5 and 243 pounds Finley's a physical specimen, and he finished strong in 2009 as he took over the starting role from Donald Lee. He caught four of his five TDs in the final five weeks of the season last year, then topped that off with a six-catch, 159-yard destruction of Arizona's defense in a wild-card playoff loss. As he enters his third pro season he's become a favorite target of up-and-coming QB Aaron Rodgers, and though the Pack like to spread the ball around, Finley was still fourth in red-zone targets among TEs. We could see him double that TD number this year with a full season as Green Bay's No. 1 TE, which would put Finley among the top 5 options at the position in 2010.

Thursday, August 5, 2010

8/5 Bust of the Day: Donovan McNabb



QB DONOVAN McNABB, REDSKINS

The way the Eagles unceremoniously dumped their franchise QB wasn’t right, but unfortunately for McNabb, he’s not in a better place. Washington was inept at protecting Jason Campbell last year (46 sacks allowed, 5th most in NFL), and it’ll be breaking in a rookie left tackle (Trent Williams) in place of retired vet Chris Samuels this year. Factor in the downgrades at WR and the M.A.S.H. unit at RB (Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, Willie Parker), and McNabb doesn’t figure to have a lot of help around him.

Sure, he still has fantasy value as a backup QB. New Redskins coach Mike Shanahan will put McNabb in situations where he can succeed, and he’ll have his share of big games as always, but it looks like his days of being a consistent No. 1 are over. The Eagles' willingness to trade him to a division rival this offseason is perhaps the most telling signal he's in decline.

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

8/4 Sleeper of the Day: Ryan Matthews



RB RYAN MATTHEWS, CHARGERS

Matthews may not be as flashy or as well known as fellow rookie RBs C.J. Spiller or Jahvid Best, but he’s stepping into an ideal situation in San Diego, at least for our purposes. The first-rounder from Fresno State will be a part of an explosive Chargers offense with a good offensive line, and with LaDainian Tomlinson out of the picture, his only competition for carries is the diminutive Darren Sproles.

Much of the country didn’t see Matthews tearing it up in the WAC last year, where he led the nation with 1,808 rushing yards (6.6 a carry, 150 a game) and scored 19 TDs on 276 carries. He’s proven himself as a workhorse, but he’s also got quite a burst (seven TD runs of 50 yards or more last year).

If all goes well, Matthews should surpass LT2’s 2009 stats, and while I have a hard time counting on a rookie as my No. 1 RB, he’ll make an excellent No. 2 with upside.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Give 'em Hellickson

Tampa Bay is still buzzing about top pitching prospect Jeremy Hellickson, who blazed past the Twins in his MLB debut on Monday.

"Hellboy" retired the first 10 batters he faced, finishing with three hits allowed, six strikeouts and two earned runs in seven innings. The 23-year-old looked cool, calm and collected while mixing a 92-93 mph fastball with an 82 mph change and keeping the Minnesota hitters off balance.

While Hellickson had been dominant at Triple-A this year to the tune of an 11-2 record, 2.21 ERA and 104/26 K/BB ratio, the righty's being sent back to the farm after giving Tampa Bay's starters an extra day of rest. But you have to figure we'll see him in a Rays uniform again soon after such a successful debut, most likely in the bullpen this September, a la David Price in 2008. Of course if there's an injury in the Rays rotation, they now know they have a spot starter who's proven he can hang with the big boys. For that reason, Hellickson could be worth hanging onto in most fantasy leagues and should certainly be scooped up in keeper leagues.


Photo by The Associated Press

8/3 Bust of the Day: Greg Olsen

TE GREG OLSEN, BEARS

Trivia time! Of course you remember the “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams offense of 1999-2001, right? Kurt Warner. Marshall Faulk. Torry Holt. Isaac Bruce. Az-Zahir Hakim. But who were the tight ends?

Give up?

Remember Roland Williams and Ernie Conwell?

Didn’t think so.

The reason I bring it up is because the architect of those offenses, Mike Martz, is now the offensive coordinator of the Chicago Bears, which spells bad news for tight end Greg Olsen. Martz simply doesn’t utilize his tight ends as pass-catchers. He didn't in those halcyon days in St. Louis, or any other stop along the way. Want more evidence? When Martz spent 2008 as the 49ers’ O.C., Vernon Davis caught 31 passes. Davis had 52 catches the year before Martz got there, and 78 the year after he left.

Olsen, a terrific talent and great target at 6-foot-4, was supposed to have his breakout last year with Jay Cutler at the helm of the Bears' offense, and he did lead the team with 60 catches. But there’s a good chance Olsen will regress under Martz, who’s already brought in TE Brandon Manumaleuna from his later Rams days to – you guessed it – block. That's a shame, because Olsen has top-10 talent but will hard pressed to be a top-20 performer this season.

Monday, August 2, 2010

8/2 Sleeper of the day: Hakeem Nicks

WR HAKEEM NICKS, GIANTS



This 2009 first-rounder has big-play receiver written all over him. He showed us that last year, catching 47 passes – including 13 of 20-plus yards and five of 40-plus yards – in his rookie campaign, including six for TDs. He also had a few big drops, but perhaps we can chalk those up to rookie mistakes. If Nicks can beat out Mario Manningham for the Giants’ No. 2 WR spot, he should be the primary deep threat and a great complement to possession receiver Steve Smith. The 6-1, 210-pounder is an excellent fantasy No. 3 with the potential to be a No. 2.

Sunday, August 1, 2010

Trade deadline wrapup: What it all means

A quick scan of the major moves made leading up to MLB's trade deadline, and their fantasy impact:

LANCE BERKMAN TO YANKEES: Berkman's value jumps up considerably after being plucked from one of the league's most punchless offenses in Houston and plopped down into the middle of one of its most potent in New York. Though clearly on the decline - just a .245 average and 13 HRs for the former All-Star so far - you have to wonder how much of that was a function of playing for the Astros. Here's hoping he'll show a little life as a full-time DH and provide some more power down the stretch.

KERRY WOOD TO YANKEES: Unfortunately a relocation to the Big Apple does little for this veteran's value. Wood loses what little fantasy appeal he had since there's absolutely no save chances coming his way as long as Mariano Rivera is in good health. Bradenton's Chris Perez is now the man in Cleveland.

OCTAVIO DOTEL TO DODGERS: Ditto for Dotel, who won't sniff a save opportunity with Jonathan Broxton at 100 percent. Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek will get the call in the ninth now for Pittsburgh.

TED LILLY TO DODGERS: Lilly's lack of strikeouts (89 in 117 innings) doesn't help his fantasy value, and neither does his 3-8 record with the Cubs. But there should be a few more Ws coming his way with contending L.A., and he won't hurt your ERA (3.69) all that much either.

RYAN THERIOT TO DODGERS: The second baseman certainly isn't known for his power (1 HR), so a move from Wrigley Field to spacious Dodger Stadium won't have a negative impact in that department. He'll take over the starting 2B spot in L.A. with Blake DeWitt going over to Chicago in the deal, but aside from his speed (16 steals) he doesn't offer a ton of value to begin with.

JAKE WESTBROOK TO CARDINALS: The veteran right-hander has put up middling numbers this year (6-7, 4.65 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), but he's certainly a good NL-only option and could be worth a look in mixed leagues now that he's under the tutelage of pitching guru Dave Duncan.

MATT CAPPS TO TWINS: The Nationals closer and All-Star gets an automatic upgrade as he moves to a contender where he'll see more save chances. And in Washington, up-and-comer Drew Storen gets a shot to prove he's a ninth-inning star.