Week 3 Sit 'Em: Eli, Greene, Wallace

- ELI MANNING vs. Tennessee: The Giants' offense is predicated on establishing the run, but it hasn't really worked so far. Even though Eli's got 5 TD passes in two games, figure on New York sticking to the ground game against a Titans secondary that's allowed just one passing TD and one play over 20 yards.

- SHONN GREENE at Miami: It was good to see Shonn getting more involved (15 carries) and being more productive (52 yards) in Week 2 after Week 1's bomb. Unfortunately, he hasn't been good enough, and LaDainian Tomlinson is still lurking in the Jets backfield.

- MIKE WALLACE at Tampa Bay: It sure looks like any value Wallace will have in 2010 will have to wait until Ben Roethlisberger's return - he has just 4 catches through 2 Big Ben-less games. The Steelers spun the wheel and came up with Charlie Batch at QB this week, and the Bucs' defenders haven't been pushovers this year.

Last week's picks

- Vince Young's stat line against the Steelers: 7-for-10, 66 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, one benching. Nailed it.

- Michael Crabtree's stat line against the Saints: One catch for 32 yards. Nailed it.

- Jahvid Best's stat line against the Eagles: 78 rushing yards, 154 receiving yards, 3 total TDs. Little off. I still stand by my prediction - the kid ran for 20 yards on 14 carries a week earlier in his debut! - but clearly I underestimated him.


The Associated Press

Week 1 Recap, Part II: Kolb toast?

- So much for Kevin Kolb’s big debut as the official Eagles starting QB (5-for-10, 25 yards, concussion). I’m not ready to declare him a fantasy bust, but hopefully you already recognized the risks with a largely untested QB and have a capable backup ready. If not, it might be time to look Michael Vick’s way.

- Running to the waiver wire to get Jaguars TE Marcedes Lewis? Not so fast. Sure, he had two catches, both for TDs. But this is also the same guy whose career high for TDs in a season is two, and who didn’t catch more than 4 passes in a game last year. Maybe he’s worth a grab, but temper your expectations.

- Sam Bradford sure aired it out in his first pro game (55 attempts). But he connected on just 32 of those (4.6 yards per completion), threw 1 TD and 3 picks, and finished with a 53.1 QB rating. He’s not a fantasy option at this point.

- Good luck making sense of the Seahawks’ backfield rotation. Justin Forsett was the most impressive (7 carries for 43 yards, 6.1 average), but Julius Jones and Leon Washington each had 1 more carry apiece. You’ll want to avoid this situation until it gets a little less murky.

- Remember all the hullabaloo about Redskins TE Fred Davis being a fantasy sleeper this year? Davis wasn't even targeted on Sunday night, but starter Chris Cooley caught 6 passes for 80 yards to lead all Skins receivers. Cooley could be in line for a big year if he stays healthy and the synergy with Donovan McNabb continues.

- OK, maybe LaDainian Tomlinson's got some fantasy life left in him (11 carries, 62 yards). But you have to figure Shonn Greene can't be that miserable again (5 carries, 18 yards, a fumble, a dropped pass and a second-half benching). That wasn't how Gang Green drew it up.

- Legedu Naanee had the nicer stat line Monday among Chargers WRs (5 catches, 110 yards, TD), but it was actually Malcom Floyd (3-48) that was targeted a team-high 12 times to Naanee's eight, including three of San Diego's four shots at the end zone on a 1st-and-goal series to end the game. Read into that what you will.

- Saints RB Pierre Thomas might have tough sledding against the 49ers' D this week, but it was good to see him get the lion's share of the carries (19 of the team's 25 rush attempts) as New Orleans pounded the rock last Thursday against the Vikings. That equaled his season high from last year, which came in Week 4.


Photo by The Associated Press

8/4 Sleeper of the Day: Ryan Matthews

RB RYAN MATTHEWS, CHARGERS

Matthews may not be as flashy or as well known as fellow rookie RBs C.J. Spiller or Jahvid Best, but he’s stepping into an ideal situation in San Diego, at least for our purposes. The first-rounder from Fresno State will be a part of an explosive Chargers offense with a good offensive line, and with LaDainian Tomlinson out of the picture, his only competition for carries is the diminutive Darren Sproles.

Much of the country didn’t see Matthews tearing it up in the WAC last year, where he led the nation with 1,808 rushing yards (6.6 a carry, 150 a game) and scored 19 TDs on 276 carries. He’s proven himself as a workhorse, but he’s also got quite a burst (seven TD runs of 50 yards or more last year).

If all goes well, Matthews should surpass LT2’s 2009 stats, and while I have a hard time counting on a rookie as my No. 1 RB, he’ll make an excellent No. 2 with upside.

LT2 a Jet: What it means for you

Looks like LaDainian Tomlinson's not done yet.

LT2's landing in New York with the Jets is probably the best possible destination for the aging runner's fantasy value. He'll line up behind a veteran offensive line that could be the league's best at run-blocking (Gang Green led the league in team rushing in 2009). And he'll have a young buck in the backfied (Shonn Greene) who can do the heavy lifting but still isn't proven enough to totally wipe Tomlinson out of the picture. (It's also a disappointment for those who, like me, envisioned Greene as a big-time sleeper as a No. 1 back next year, but that's another story).

Tomlinson's no longer a No. 1 back, that much is certain. But as a change-of-pace guy who gets to touch the ball in the red zone, he could rack up quite a few TDs. Last year's numbers (700 yards, 12 TDs) are probably his absolute ceiling in 2010, but that still makes him an intriguing No. 2 fantasy RB and a defnite No. 3.

Let's not close the book on Tomlinson's career yet.

It's on for Shonn

Another day, another 30-something running back gets released.

This time it's Thomas Jones who'll be filing for unemployment, with the Jets set to cut the 31-year-old tailback.

The news comes just days after veterans LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook were cut by their respective clubs. Jones was more productive than either of those guys in 2009, running for 1,402 yards and 14 TDs, both career highs. And now he's looking for work.

But Jones' loss is Shonn Greene's gain. Greene served as Jones' backup in his rookie season and ran well, posting 504 yards (5.0 a carry) and 2 TDs and adding another 169 yards and a TD in two playoff games. Now he's in line to be the featured back behind an excellent offensive line that helped Gang Green lead the league in rushing in 2009. Yes, Greene will have some competition from the fiesty Leon Washington, who's set to return from a broken leg. But the NFL sophomore could put together a breakout season and deserves strong consideration as a fantasy No. 2 next year.

Tomlinson's last electric glide

The days of LaDainian Tomlinson as a fantasy stud and as a San Diego Charger are officially over.

The Bolts released LT2 (there can never be another LT) on Monday as widely expected. That's the unfortunately reality for a 30-year-old running back whose stats have been in decline. Tomlinson, for years a surefire No. 1 fantasy pick, averaged a pedestrian 3.3 yards a carry last year and didn't crack the 100-yard mark in a game, breaking the hearts of many fantasy players along the way. And just like that, the Chargers sent him packing.

I don't think LT2 is done just yet, as he's professed his wish to continue playing for a contender. Someone will give him a shot, and deservedly so, perhaps as part of a running back rotation or as a short-yardage back. He may even have some fantasy value next year, depending on where he lands and how they use him. But it will definitely be weird seeing him without a lightning bolt logo on his helmet - think Emmitt Smith in Cardinals red or Franco Harris in Seahawks silver. And it will certainly feel strange in fantasy circles when Tomlinson's name isn't called in the first round next year.

At least we'll always have the Electric Glide video.

Grading my 2009 busts

QB KURT WARNER, CARDINALS

The veteran didn't have as much of a dropoff as I feared - he missed just one game due to injury - but his numbers did plummet. He threw for 26 TDs, down from 30 a year ago, but the big killer was his 3,753 passing yards, nearly 1,000 fewer than 2008. I said Warner wouldn't be a top-5 QB as many predicted, and that Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers would be better picks at QB. Turns out several others would have been better picks, too - Warner finished outside the top 10 among fantasy QBs. GRADE: A+

WR PERCY HARVIN, VIKINGS

I tried to argue that Harvin wouldn't be consistent this season and therefore would be overrated as a No. 3 fantasy WR. In many ways, that was true - the rookie went through the entire month of October without doing much of anything, then tailed off again in late December while battling a headache problem. But his final stats - 790 receiving yards, 6 TDs, plus two return TDs - were helpful to anyone who used him at the right times, and he outperformed most of the other guys I liked better as No. 3s. GRADE: C+

RB LaDAINIAN TOMLINSON, CHARGERS

I was pretty much right on the money on this one. Though LT2 did end up with 12 rushing TDs - one more than last year - his yardage totals plummeted from 1,110 to 730 (rushing) and 426 to 124 (receiving). In fact, he never even posted a 100-yard-rushing game. I cautioned that he'd be taken in the first round of many leagues based on reputation alone, but he actually ended up barely finishing among the top 10 RBs in fantasy scoring. GRADE: A+

WR ANTONIO BRYANT, BUCCANEERS

I wasn't thrilled with the idea of Bryant as a No. 2 WR this year, as some suggested, and I wasn't even considering the fact Byron Leftwich wouldn't even make it three weeks as the Bucs' starting QB, or that Tampa Bay would be quite so awful. But all that contributed to Bryant's 600-yard, 4-TD season. GRADE: A+

RB DeANGELO WILLIAMS, PANTHERS

I warned that Williams, coming off an out-of-this-world 2008 fantasy season, was bound to disappoint if you counted on a repeat. He ended up with 400 fewer rushing yards and less than half as many TDs as the year before. I reasoned that fellow Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart would siphon off a lot of Williams' stats, and Stewart actually ended up with more yards and more TDs than Williams, who played only 13 games. GRADE: A

Best of the decade?

As we say goodbye to 2009, I'm seeing all kinds of all-decade lists popping up all over the place (Best movies? Best songs? Best TV themes?)

It got me thinking: Who were the best fantasy players of the 2000s? It'd be awfully hard to narrow it down to an all-decade team. For instance, Peyton Manning's probably the obvious choice at QB, but how do you deny Tom Brady's record-busting 2007 season? Or how do you narrow it down to 1 or 2 running backs - say, LaDainian Tomlinson and Priest Holmes - and leave out a Brian Westbrook or Adrian Peterson or Marshall Faulk?

Jay Clemons of SI.com actually figured out a better approach, ranking the top 10 fantasy seasons of the decade. Here's what they came up with in a nutshell:

1. Tom Brady, 2007
2. LaDainian Tomlinson, 2006
3. Peyton Manning, 2004
4. Randy Moss, 2007
5. Shaun Alexander, 2005
6. Daunte Culpepper, 2004
7. LaDainian Tomlinson, 2003
8. Marvin Harrison, 2002
9. Tony Gonzalez, 2004
10. Drew Brees, 2008

A few things jump out at me:

- How does Holmes not make the list? It's easy to forget that near the start of the decade he was every bit as dominating as Tomlinson in his prime and single-handedly won many leagues in the early 2000s. A tight end makes the list and Priest doesn't?

- Brady may have had the single most impressive fantasy season of the '00s, but as SI points out, the rest of his career belongs simply in the "good" category, from a fantasy standpoint.

- It's almost unfathomable that Culpepper, who can't even stay on the field for the Detroit Lions nowadays, was once the game's best fantasy QB. I owned him in 2004, his incredible 39-TD season, and loved every minute of it. I also drafted him the following year, the start of his long downward career spiral, and still haven't forgiven him.

Photo by The Associated Press

Week 12 recap

Random thoughts from Week 12 while waking up from a turkey-induced coma ...

- Raise your hand if you got screwed by a quarterback this week. Whether it was a last-minute scratch (Kurt Warner), an early game injury (Matt Ryan) or just plain ineffectiveness, (Eli Manning, Tom Brady) in big games, a bunch of owners saw their Week 12 hopes go down the tubes because of their QB.

- Chris Redman held his own subbing for Ryan (243 yards, 2 TDs) and might not actually a bad play this week against the Eagles with Matty Ice still on the shelf.

- One QB you can't knock: Drew Brees (371 yards, 5 TDs). The guy's making fantasy stars left and right. Even someone named Darnell Dinkins caught a TD pass for the Saints on Monday night. Wasn't he the mayor of New York City?

- Two more TDs from Laurence Maroney, plus a fumble for the third straight game. Don't even dream about sitting him.

- I didn't think I'd be saying it again this year, but Terrell Owens is fantasy relevant. I'm not sure if it was the switch to Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB or interim coach Perry Fewell realizing "Hey, maybe we should throw the ball deep to T.O.," but Owens is once again getting it done (96 yards, TD for the second straight game. The only problem is this Thursday he's matched up against Darrelle Revis and the Jets, who bottled Owens up (3 catches, 13 yards) in their Week 6 meeting.

- I also didn't think Larry Johnson would be relevant again, either (22 carries, 107 yards for Cincinnati). Of course, it did come against the Browns, and Bernard Scott didn't do too bad either (18 carries, 87 yards). Plus, there's a decent chance starter Cedric Benson will be back this week against Detroit, so that may be LJ's last big output, at least for this season.

- Big day for budding star Justin Forsett (22 carries, 130 yards, 2 TDs), but it sounds like the second-year back could return to his reserve role with the Seahawks this week if Julius Jones is healthy. It's still a name to know for 2010 and maybe keep on your bench if you have an extra spot.

- Please just go away, Jake Delhomme (14-for-34, 130 yards, 0 TDs, 4 INTs). I know Revis and the Jets secondary had a lot to do with it, but you're making Steve Smith (1 catch, 5 yards) absolutely worthless. I'm looking forward to seeing what Matt Moore can do if Delhomme (finger) sits against Tampa Bay this Sunday as expected.

- Two Chiefs skill players have become no-doubt fantasy starters, but instead of Johnson and Dwayne Bowe it's Jamaal Charles (147 total yards, TD) and Chris Chambers (7 catches, 70 yards, TD).

- I'm not convinced LaDainian Tomlinson is still what he once was (13 carries, 39 yards), but he did score two more TDs on Sunday. As long as the Chargers keep giving him carries inside the 5-yard line, we're all good.

Week 9 Recap

Some random fantasy thoughts while crafting a petition to the Bucs to wear their creamsicle uniforms every week ...


- Michael Turner topped 150 yards for the second straight game and extended his scoring streak to eight straight games (166, 2 TDs). He's looking like the top-3 back we thought he'd be.

- Turner's counterpart, Clinton Portis, was knocked out against Atlanta and is looking doubtful for what could have been a decent Week 10 matchup vs. Denver. Ladell Betts (15 carries, 70 yards, TD) wasn't bad in his stead and could soon be in a Hot Pickups blog post near you.

- Who needs Anquan Boldin? The disgruntled and disappointing Cardinals WR was scratched because of a nagging ankle injury and the field conditions in Chicago (and he was none too pleased with how he was informed of the benching) ... and Kurt Warner still threw 5 TDs.

- Do Matt Forte's 6 catches for 74 yards make up for his 5 carries for 33 yards? I say no.

- Of course Greg Olsen would catch 3 TDs after I benched him at the last minute Saturday night and subbed in Heath Miller (3 catches, 18 yards).

- I gotta give it to Cedric Benson for proving me wrong so far. He's exceeded all my expectations in Cincinnati (117 more yards and a TD vs. Baltimore) and has become a must-start, even Week 10 against Pittsburgh and beyond.

- Laurence Maroney got his biggest workload of the season (20 carries) and scored for the third straight week. Is he finally a dependable fantasy starter? I'd give him a serious look for this week's showdown with Indy.

- The Packers' James Jones now has 3 receiving TDs this year, or 1 more than teammate Greg Jennings. That ain't right.

- Do we have a new fantasy star in Bucs QB Josh Freeman (14-for-31, 205 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT)? Anything's possible, but let's see what happens after the rest of the league gets some actual film on him. Encouraging start, though.

- So Chris Chambers gets released by San Diego last week, picked up by the awful Chiefs this week, plays his first game for K.C. on Sunday and has his most productive day (70 yards, 2 TDs) since Week 2 of last year. Go figure.

- Twelve carries, 22 yards for LaDainian Tomlinson. How the mighty have fallen. Last time he played the Giants, in 2005, he busted them for 192 yards and 3 TDs. Those were the days.

- Alex Smith sure does love him some Vernon Davis (10 catches, 102 yards, both career highs).

Start 'Em: Week 9

- RB JOSEPH ADDAI vs. Houston: Addai hasn't sniffed 100 rushing yards this season - in fact, he hasn't topped 64 - but he's scored in six of seven games (including last week's TD pass, above) so far and is getting just enough touches (and production) to make for a solid starter this week against a so-so Texans run defense.

- WR DeSEAN JACKSON vs. Dallas: The Eagles' second-year wideout has caught a 50-plus-yard TD bomb in each of the past two weeks. You can't afford to have the kid on your bench this week.

- WR MICHAEL CRABTREE vs. Tennessee: The rookie's caught 5 and 6 balls, respectively, in his first two NFL games and is already a big part of the Niners' offense. I can envision him scoring his first career TD this week against a Titans secondary that, despite last week's shut-down effort against Jacksonville, has had its share of issues, can't you?


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- I predicted LaDainian Tomlinson would score a TD and have his best rushing total of the season against Oakland. His 56 yards didn't quite top his season high (70), but he scored TWO TDs, so put that in your pipe and smoke it.

- Jeremy Shockey caught five passes for 72 yards but didn't hit the end zone against Atlanta.

- David Garrard was downright dreadful against the Titans (14 for 27, 139 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs). I apologize.

Start 'Em: Week 8

-RB LaDAINIAN TOMLINSON vs. Oakland: LT2's looked like a shell of his former self as many (including yours truly) predicted in the preseason. He can't seem to get the tough yards anymore and hasn't cracked 71 in a game yet. Some of that has to do with his offensive line, of course, but here's betting they can get things going against an imploding Raiders team and Tomlinson busts through for at least a TD and his best rushing output to date in 2009.

-TE JEREMY SHOCKEY vs. Atlanta: The Shockster has caught at least 4 passes in every game so far and is coming off his best game, yardage-wise (105) so far this year. Now he faces a Falcons D that's been victimized by Jason Witten (5 for 53), Greg Olsen (5 for 57, TD), Vernon Davis (5 for 51), Chris Baker (2 for 42, TD) and Dante Rosario (3 for 31, TD) this year.

-QB DAVID GARRARD at Tennessee: Garrard had his best game of the season in Week 4 against the Titans (323 yards, 3 TDs), and Jeff Fisher's defense has yet to show any ability to stop an aerial attack.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Frank Gore ran for a pitiful 32 yards on 13 carries against the Texans in his first game back from injury. Huge disappointment.

- Donald Brown was on his way to a great day (2 carries for 58 yards) in a rout of the Rams before hurting his shoulder. Tough break.

- Steve Breaston was another huge letdown (1 catch for 23 yards). Anquan Boldin did end up suiting up against the Giants and hauled in 3 passes for 75 yards, which hurt Breaston's production a bit, but it's still no excuse.

Photo by The Associated Press

9/1 Bust of the Day: LaDainian Tomlinson

RB LaDAINIAN TOMLINSON, SAN DIEGO CHARGERS



I know, it's almost sacrilege to associate the great LT2's name with the term "bust." He's been so great for so long, the consensus pick as fantasy's best player for several years now ... but 2008 was a struggle for the San Diego Chargers' superback, the first real adversity he's had to face in his Hall of Fame-caliber career. The numbers were still fine - 1,110 rushing yards, 426 receiving yards, 12 total TDs - but that was still a career low for yards on the ground, and his fewest trips to the end zone since his rookie year.

If Tomlinson duplicates last year's numbers, he's a top-10 back. But here's the problem: I think those stats now represent his ceiling, not his floor. In other words, he has to stay healthy all year - which he didn't do last year - to reach those stats. And I'm not sure I'm willing to take that risk with a 30-year-old back with so much mileage on his legs. I'm not taking him in the upper half of the first round. I'd consider him at the end of the first and I'd most likely grab him if he fell into the second - but I have a feeling he'll be taken before then in a lot of drafts just based on reputation alone. And if that's the case I'm afraid he'll disappoint - which would make him a bust in 2009.

Worried about Peterson, Moss, others?

Week 4 is the perfect time to take stock of your fantasy team and figure out which direction it’s headed.

By now we’ve got a good idea of which NFL offenses look like powerhouses and which are just plain offensive. We’ve seen how certain running back timeshares will operate, which quarterbacks’ jobs are in jeopardy, whose surgically repaired body parts are holding up and whose legs have too many miles on them.

Also, with six NFL teams enjoying a bye week, the depth of fantasy rosters will be tested. It’s time to examine your squad with a critical eye and see where you stand. Some players will hold up to the scrutiny despite some early season question marks and injury concerns, while others are in serious danger.

Here are some notable guys I’m not too worried about, and some who deserve a red flag:

NO PROBLEMS HERE

LaDainian Tomlinson: His toe may be bothering him, but Tomlinson still rushed two touchdowns Monday night. That’s why I’d never sit LT – as long as he can stand on two feet, the San Diego Chargers will continue to feed him meaningful touches, no matter how good backup Darren Sproles looks.

Adrian Peterson: Even with a sore hamstring and the possibility he might sit out last Sunday, Peterson still started and gutted out a tough 17 carries for 77 yards against a good Carolina Panthers defense. Things get no easier this week against the Tennessee Titans, but Peterson is simply too dangerous and too valuable a fantasy commodity to leave on your bench if he’s active.

Brian Westbrook: He’s listed as day to day with an ankle sprain, but worse injuries than that haven’t stopped this tough little S.O.B. Westbrook is the most dangerous player in fantasy football and can never be benched unless he’s officially ruled out. Grab Correll Buckhalter or Lorenzo Booker as insurance if you feel compelled, but expect to see a Westbrook touchdown or two Sunday night in Chicago.

Brett Favre: The veteran QB’s numbers have been acceptable as a low-end fantasy No. 1 to this point (six TDs vs. three INTs) even as he’s learning on the fly with the New York Jets. Expect him to soar in the coming weeks (vs. Arizona, Cincinnati, Oakland, Kansas City).

PROCEED WITH CAUTION

Steven Jackson: From last season’s struggles to his holdout during camp, we had enough worries about Jackson entering the season. So far he and the miserable St. Louis Rams have done nothing to quell our fears, and the switch to QB Trent Green doesn’t help. This situation’s a mess.

Roy Williams: If the Detroit Lions can’t figure out Williams needs to get more than three targets a game, there’s no hope for them. With frustration mounting, Mike Martz gone and Calvin Johnson taking on a bigger role, I’m officially worried about our boy Roy.


Randy Moss: From Moss’ perspective, QB Matt Cassel looks a lot more like Andrew Walter than Tom Brady so far. Might it be that Moss is only as good as the quarterback throwing to him? If true, it could be a long year.

Braylon Edwards: We know his shoulder’s bothering him, but Edwards better start pulling down some catches starting this Sunday at Cincinnati, or he’s going to cost QB Derek Anderson and maybe coach Romeo Crennel their jobs. He’s got a long way to go in proving he’s a fantasy No. 1

Photos by The Associated Press.

Thinking twice about LT

Just the other day I touted LaDainian Tomlinson as next year's top overall fantasy draft pick. But today, I'm not so sure.

LT's "performance" in Sunday's AFC Championship - two carries, five yards, and a whole lot of sitting on the bench - is troublesome. We knew going into the game Tomlinson's knee wasn't quite 100 percent. But he said he felt good, it wasn't a serious ailment, and his name wasn't even on Friday's injury report. And then, just minutes into the game, the knee supposedly gets reinjured, and he's planted on the sidelines for the remainder of the game.

Do you think the Chargers could have used Tomlinson later in the game, even if he was playing at 75 percent? Or 50 percent? It turns out LT won't even need offseason surgery - which really makes you start to question the guy's guts when you see his quarterback, Philip Rivers, played with an ACL that's "totally gone" and when you see players such as Terrell Owens and Plaxico Burress suiting up and playing through pain in the playoffs.

At first I was worried about Tomlinson's fantasy future because of the knee, but now I'm just concerned about his mental state and his standing in the eyes of his teammates and coaches. Not saying he's not a first-round pick - or even the first overall pick - but it does open the door for a little doubt. I've never sprained my MCL, nor am I even sure where' it's located, and by all accounts LT is one of the NFL's good guys and a team player. But I'm just saying this whole incident is a little fishy and might make me pause for a second before drafting him next year.

An early football top 10

Never too early to start thinking about next season, right?

Here's a peek at the top 10 names on my football board for 2008. Remember, all predictions are subject to change, but here's how I've got them slotted right now:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson: Even in a "down" year, he led the league in rushing. Not too shabby.

2. Brian Westbrook: Versatile little guy never disappoints but always seems to get disrespected on draft day. Not by me, though.

3. Adrian Peterson: Rookie put to rest injury/timeshare worries with an awesome year. Late-season tailspin is a concern, but upside is too good to ignore.

4. Joseph Addai: A workhorse back with young legs and a nose for the end zone? I'll take it.

5. Tom Brady: Amazing '07 pushes him way up the draft board, and with good reason. But I'd bet the Pats reassess their running game this offseason, meaning Brady's numbers will dip slightly.

6. Steven Jackson: Here's hoping the Rams improve their offensive line in '08. Maybe then Jackson will have the kind of season he was supposed to this year.

7. Peyton Manning: Old reliable gets slotted behind Brady for the first time. But he's still as steady as they come.

8. Frank Gore: With Mike Martz taking over the 49ers' offense, a healthy Gore could approach Marshall Faulk territory if everything falls into place.

9. Randy Moss: He's found a comfort zone with Brady and the Pats. Twenty-three TDs will be hard to touch, but he'll try.

10. Tony Romo: I don't think he'll be going on vacation anytime soon. Big things will be expected in Big D next year.