Tuesday, September 1, 2009

9/1 Bust of the Day: LaDainian Tomlinson


I know, it's almost sacrilege to associate the great LT2's name with the term "bust." He's been so great for so long, the consensus pick as fantasy's best player for several years now ... but 2008 was a struggle for the San Diego Chargers' superback, the first real adversity he's had to face in his Hall of Fame-caliber career. The numbers were still fine - 1,110 rushing yards, 426 receiving yards, 12 total TDs - but that was still a career low for yards on the ground, and his fewest trips to the end zone since his rookie year.

If Tomlinson duplicates last year's numbers, he's a top-10 back. But here's the problem: I think those stats now represent his ceiling, not his floor. In other words, he has to stay healthy all year - which he didn't do last year - to reach those stats. And I'm not sure I'm willing to take that risk with a 30-year-old back with so much mileage on his legs. I'm not taking him in the upper half of the first round. I'd consider him at the end of the first and I'd most likely grab him if he fell into the second - but I have a feeling he'll be taken before then in a lot of drafts just based on reputation alone. And if that's the case I'm afraid he'll disappoint - which would make him a bust in 2009.

No comments: