Worried about Randy Moss?

You drafted Randy Moss in the first round.

Then he goes out and catches 5 balls for 59 yards and 0 TDs in the Pats' Week 1 rout of the Bengals.

OK, you can live with that, I suppose. Not what you want out of your top wideout, but not unforgivable.



Then, after the game, Moss starts yapping about his unhappiness with his contract situation.

Uh oh. If you remember his days as a Raider, you know an unhappy Moss can be an unproductive Moss. The mercurial wideout has said you won't hear another peep out of him on the subject this year, though, and he's happy to be a Patriot and is "still going to play some football."

That's reassuring. Only problem: this week the Pats face the Jets, and that means Moss can expect a heavy dose of his new nemesis, Darrelle Revis. New York plans to match up its lockdown cornerback exclusively with Moss, who was held to a total of 9 catches and 58 yards (and 1 TD) in two trips to Revis Island last year.

In other words, expect another so-so showing from your best wideout this week.

Things should get better after that, especially with a tasty matchup with Buffalo looming in Week 3, but until then it could be a rough couple weeks for Moss supporters.

Photo by The Associated Press

Draft recap: How my team looks

We held the 5th annual Newsroom Fantasy League draft over the weekend at Buffalo Wild Wings (highly recommend their draft party deal, by the way). We expanded from 10 to 12 teams this year, and by random draw I ended up with the 10th overall pick. I'm also the defending champion.

We have to carry 2 QBs, 4 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs, 2 Ks and 2 D/ST. Regular scoring rules and a snake draft.

Here's how my squad turned out, with round of selection in parentheses and commentary below:

JERSEY SURE

QB Tony Romo (3)
QB Chad Henne (11)

RB Ryan Grant (2)
RB Felix Jones (4)
RB Marion Barber (6)
RB Donald Brown (8)

WR Randy Moss (1)
WR Hakeem Nicks (5)
WR Mike Wallace (7)
WR Mike Williams (9)

TE Owen Daniels (10)
TE John Carlson (14)

K Ryan Longwell (13)
K Matt Bryant (16)

DEF Steelers (12)
DEF Browns (15)

Chose Randy Moss over Steven Jackson with my first pick at No. 10 overall. The running backs were flying off the board and S-Jax was probably a good value at that point, but I just don't have a good feeling about him this year.

Wasn't planning to have so many Cowboys on my team, but that's the way it worked out. I had to go RB with my second pick (Ryan Grant) and then sweat it out until the third round to grab the last elite QB (Tony Romo) left. That made Felix Jones a little more appealing to me as my second RB, and Marion Barber was the best remaining RB in Round 6. I'm very aware of the Cowboys' offensive struggles this preseason, thank you.

I could tell I was a little higher on my WRs than the rest of the league. I got Hakeem Nicks in the fifth round and Mike Wallace in the seventh, and I believe they can both produce like solid WR2s.

Mike Williams of the Bucs was kind of a sleeper in the ninth round. Ditto for Donald Brown in the eighth as my RB4 - he was the one remaining back that offered the most upside if his team's No. 1 (Joseph Addai) were to miss any time.

A little concerned about my No. 1 TE (Owen Daniels) since he's coming off a torn ACL and he could be questionable for Week 1 of the regular season. But I decided to wait on a TE until the 10th round after some of the others I was targeting (Brent Celek, Zach Miller) were swiped from me. But I still think Daniels offers huge upside if he can put the injury behind him, and I feel like I have a solid, top-15 backup (John Carlson) as insurance.

I have Ryan Longwell as the No. 2 kicker on my board but I believe he was the fifth one taken. Matt Bryant is just a flier since he'll kick in a dome in Atlanta for a decent offense.

Defenses are a crapshoot, but the Steelers are usually a safe pick. I don't particularly like the Browns, but I do like the idea of Josh Cribbs returning kicks.

8/23 Bust of the Day: Larry Fitzgerald

WR LARRY FITZGERALD, Cardinals

I don't doubt Fitzgerald's talent. I'm not saying he won't be a No. 1 fantasy wideout this season. But to quote just about every character in the Star Wars movies, I have a bad feeling about this.

Maybe it's the fact Matt Leinart is taking over the reins as Cards QB from the prolific Kurt Warner. Maybe it's the sprained right knee Fitzgerald's already dealing with this preseason. Maybe it's the residue of the Madden Curse that never really struck him last year (but cost co-cover boy Troy Polamalu most of his season). You know what they say about karma ...

But seriously, there are plenty of reasons to worry about Fitzgerald this year. He's not going to have Anquan Boldin around anymore to put pressure on opposing secondaries. And you may remember Fitzgerald's last subpar season (946 yards, 6 TDs in 13 games in 2006) just happened to be the year Arizona was trying to break in Leinart as their starting QB. Now, Leinart is a better QB today then he was as a rookie (presumably) - but can he replace Warner's production? Will more targets come Fitzgerald's way with Boldin out of the picture, or will Arizona just lean more heavily on Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower in the running game?

That's an awful lot of question marks for a WR who I've seen go in the first round in some mock drafts. I still don't have a problem making Fitzgerald my No. 1 WR ... but I'm not sure I'd take him over Andre Johnson or Randy Moss, or even Calvin Johnson. I'm labeling him a bust because I don't think he's the shoe-in for 1,300 yards or double-digit TDs many are tabbing him to be.

8/22 Sleeper of the Day: Aaron Hernandez

TE AARON HERNANDEZ, Patriots

One of Tim Tebow's favorite targets in college, Hernandez now has the chance to be Tom Brady's boy in New England. The 2010 fourth-rounder won the Mackey Award as the nation's top tight end in his junior season for the Gators and offers the Pats a much-needed offensive threat at the position.

Now, anyone who's had a New England player not named Brady or Randy Moss on their fantasy squad in the past few seasons can tell you the team's offensive philosophy can be maddening. They alter their gameplans so much from week to week and utilize such a variety of players in many different ways that it's hard to see any kind of consistency. Consider this year's stable of TEs: Hernandez, fellow rookie Rob Gronkowski and former fantasy star Alge Crumpler have lined up all over the field this preseason for the Pats (split out wide or in the slot as receivers; as wing backs and fullbacks; plus at the traditional TE spot) and will all be vying for catches this year.

For those reasons, none of those guys is going to be a weekly fantasy contributor you can count on in 2010, but I'd be willing to bet they all have their moments. And I bet Hernandez, the most physically gifted receiver of the three, will have the most moments that are fantasy relevant. He already has seven catches for 72 yards and a TD through two preseason games and has started both contests. I predict a few big games out of the rookie when the matchups dictate, and he could be a sneaky No. 2 TE pick at the end of 12-team drafts. At the very least he'll be someone to watch on the waiver wire.


Photo by The Associated Press

8/15 Bust of the Day: Tom Brady

QB TOM BRADY, Patriots




Before you flip out and call me a crazy Brady hater (or worse), please read this blog carefully. I'm not predicting Tom Terrific's days as a fantasy force are over. I'm not saying he's washed up or not worth drafting. I'm simply stating my belief that Brady will fail to deliver on the general consensus of expectations for him this year, which is how I define a bust.

But first, the positives: Brady's currently playing for a new contract, as is his top receiver, the always dangerous Randy Moss. Standout slot man Wes Welker is progressing nicely from reconstructive knee surgery. The Pats still don't have a go-to running back, which means plenty of pass attempts. And Brady's more than a year removed from a devastating knee injury of his own.

Now check this out: I'm seeing Brady being touted as a definite-top-5/possibly-top-3/maybe-top-overall QB in many fantasy circles, but a lot of that is still based on memories of his record-breaking, pre-injury 2007 season. Take away that 50-TD anomaly, and he's never thrown for more than 28 scores in a season. Granted, he equaled that number last year and also had his second-most passing yards (4,398) - yet he still finished as the seventh-rated fantasy QB in standard-scoring leagues.

Other QBs have closed the gap on old stalwarts Brady and Peyton Manning - not just new standard-bearer Drew Brees but also young upstarts like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers and Tony Romo. Brady still might be a safe fantasy pick, but it depends where you're picking him too, because there are others available who might have more upside or be even safer. Remember, Brady's 33 years old (and so is Moss for that matter) and is going to eventually decline. Nobody wants to spend a first- or second-round pick on him the year that happens.

That's all I'm sayin'.

2009 Fantasy Awards, Pt. 1

Time for my annual season review and the handing out of some well-deserved honors. No popularity contests or personal biases here: These awards are based strictly on the cold, hard numbers and the players' direct impact on fantasy success.

Let's do this.


FANTASY MVP

I was tempted to give the honor to Aaron Rodgers, who produced as well as any quarterback this season but could have been taken in the 3rd or 4th round or later at most drafts. But while there were a few QBs at the top of the rankings with similar stats - Rodgers, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning - one running back stood out from the pack at his position.

Chris Johnson's 2,006-yard rushing season will go down as one of the greatest in league history. CJ had a few disappointing games in the early weeks of 2009 - he had four sub-100-yard rushing performances in his first five games and failed to score a TD in any of them. But a monster Week 2 against Houston (197 rushing yards and 2 TDs, plus 87 receiving yards and a TD catch) showed us just what he was capable of. Johnson finished the season with 11 straight 100-plus-yard games. He scored 14 TDs on the ground, plus 2 more through the air to go with more than 500 receiving yards. In short, he was a fantasy beast, and in many leagues he wasn't among the top 5 or even 10 players drafted. That won't be the case next year.

BUST OF THE YEAR

I tended to be a little more bullish on Matt Forte's 2009 fantasy prospects than some publications. With the Bears' offseason acquisition of Jay Cutler, I thought Forte might significantly improve on a standout rookie season. Boy, was I wrong. He finished with just 929 rushing yards, down from last year's 1,238. He scored 4 rushing TDs, down from last year's 8. He caught 57 passes, down from last year's 63. He caught 0 TDs, down from last year's 4.

In other words, he was a bust.

2009 ALL FANTASY TEAM

QB - Drew Brees
RB1 - Chris Johnson
RB2 - Adrian Peterson
WR1 - Andre Johsnon
WR2 - Randy Moss
TE - Vernon Davis
K - David Akers
DEF - Eagles

PICKUP OF THE YEAR

Receivers Miles Austin of the Cowboys and Steve Smith of the Giants deserve recognition for going from off the radar to bona fide fantasy starters in 2009. But the honor goes to Kansas City's Jamaal Charles, who started the year blocked by Larry Johnson but finished as a 1,000-yard rusher. After the Chiefs unceremoniously dumped Johnson, Charles immediately stepped in with 103 yards and a TD against Oakland in Week 10 and never looked back. He scored 7 times in the season's final 8 weeks and topped 100 rushing yards in each of his final 4 games during a critical stretch of the fantasy season, culminating with his 259-yard, 2-TD showing in Week 17.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

First-year running backs Knowshon Moreno, Beanie Wells and LeSean McCoy were all valuable fantasy commodities at various times, but WR Percy Harvin gets the nod after catching 6 TDs. That's more than such fantasy stalwarts as Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Terrell Owens, Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe, TJ Houshmandzadeh and Antonio Bryant. Harvin also rushed for 731 yards and scored two return TDs, making him one of the season's best flex players.

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR

I hate to say it, but it's got to be Favre. He tied Rodgers for the third most pasing TDs with 33, his most since 1997. He also threw only 7 TDs, his fewest ever in a full season. That was a whopping improvement on last year's ratio (22 TDs/22 INTs). Favre entered the year considered a marginal fantasy backup but was one of the game's best QBs in 2009.

Best of the decade?

As we say goodbye to 2009, I'm seeing all kinds of all-decade lists popping up all over the place (Best movies? Best songs? Best TV themes?)

It got me thinking: Who were the best fantasy players of the 2000s? It'd be awfully hard to narrow it down to an all-decade team. For instance, Peyton Manning's probably the obvious choice at QB, but how do you deny Tom Brady's record-busting 2007 season? Or how do you narrow it down to 1 or 2 running backs - say, LaDainian Tomlinson and Priest Holmes - and leave out a Brian Westbrook or Adrian Peterson or Marshall Faulk?

Jay Clemons of SI.com actually figured out a better approach, ranking the top 10 fantasy seasons of the decade. Here's what they came up with in a nutshell:

1. Tom Brady, 2007
2. LaDainian Tomlinson, 2006
3. Peyton Manning, 2004
4. Randy Moss, 2007
5. Shaun Alexander, 2005
6. Daunte Culpepper, 2004
7. LaDainian Tomlinson, 2003
8. Marvin Harrison, 2002
9. Tony Gonzalez, 2004
10. Drew Brees, 2008

A few things jump out at me:

- How does Holmes not make the list? It's easy to forget that near the start of the decade he was every bit as dominating as Tomlinson in his prime and single-handedly won many leagues in the early 2000s. A tight end makes the list and Priest doesn't?

- Brady may have had the single most impressive fantasy season of the '00s, but as SI points out, the rest of his career belongs simply in the "good" category, from a fantasy standpoint.

- It's almost unfathomable that Culpepper, who can't even stay on the field for the Detroit Lions nowadays, was once the game's best fantasy QB. I owned him in 2004, his incredible 39-TD season, and loved every minute of it. I also drafted him the following year, the start of his long downward career spiral, and still haven't forgiven him.

Photo by The Associated Press

Week 14 recap

- Thanks, Aaron Rodgers, for not throwing ONE STINKING TD PASS in a critical week for fantasy. Ryan Grant (20 carries, 137 yards, 2 TDs) did all the heavy lifting for the Packers against the Bears.

- Peyton Manning, on the other hand, didn't disappoint (4 TDs) and could have been even better if not for 3 INTs.

- Speaking of stepping up, how about that Brandon Marshall? A PPR player's dream: an NFL-record 23 receptions, including 2 TDs, and 200 receiving yards. The surprising part? It was only the second time he's had double-digit receptions all year.

- Give Andre Johnson (193 yards, 2 TDs) a game ball, too.

- And while we're at it, a round of applause for Chris Johnson (186 total yards, 3 TDs), a one-man fantasy wrecking ball all season.

- Pat yourself on the back for drafting/picking up/starting Jamaal Charles (143 rushing yards, TD, 7 catches for 38 yards). And rejoice in next week's date with the Browns.

- Cedric Benson was surprisingly effective against Minnesota's defense (96 yards on 16 carries), and the purported timeshare with Larry Johnson (3 carries, 4 yards) never materialized. Benson is a safe play next Sunday at San Diego.

- Rickey Williams enjoyed his fourth 100-yard rushing game in the past 5 weeks and scored his 11th TD of the year.

- Who is Quinton Ganther? A former practice-squad RB from Utah who scored 2 TDs for Washington, that's who. Expect to see more of him in the coming weeks as the Redskins' RB roulette continues.

- Another 'Skin deserves a look, too: It's TE Fred Davis, who has 4 TDs in his past three games and who next faces the Giants, who had no answer for Philly's Brent Celek (5 catches, 64 yards, TD) this week.

- Speaking of answers, Randy Moss owes each of his fantasy owners one after that "performance" (1 catch, 16 yards, fumble, general disinterest in playing football on Sunday).

Worried about Peterson, Moss, others?

Week 4 is the perfect time to take stock of your fantasy team and figure out which direction it’s headed.

By now we’ve got a good idea of which NFL offenses look like powerhouses and which are just plain offensive. We’ve seen how certain running back timeshares will operate, which quarterbacks’ jobs are in jeopardy, whose surgically repaired body parts are holding up and whose legs have too many miles on them.

Also, with six NFL teams enjoying a bye week, the depth of fantasy rosters will be tested. It’s time to examine your squad with a critical eye and see where you stand. Some players will hold up to the scrutiny despite some early season question marks and injury concerns, while others are in serious danger.

Here are some notable guys I’m not too worried about, and some who deserve a red flag:

NO PROBLEMS HERE

LaDainian Tomlinson: His toe may be bothering him, but Tomlinson still rushed two touchdowns Monday night. That’s why I’d never sit LT – as long as he can stand on two feet, the San Diego Chargers will continue to feed him meaningful touches, no matter how good backup Darren Sproles looks.

Adrian Peterson: Even with a sore hamstring and the possibility he might sit out last Sunday, Peterson still started and gutted out a tough 17 carries for 77 yards against a good Carolina Panthers defense. Things get no easier this week against the Tennessee Titans, but Peterson is simply too dangerous and too valuable a fantasy commodity to leave on your bench if he’s active.

Brian Westbrook: He’s listed as day to day with an ankle sprain, but worse injuries than that haven’t stopped this tough little S.O.B. Westbrook is the most dangerous player in fantasy football and can never be benched unless he’s officially ruled out. Grab Correll Buckhalter or Lorenzo Booker as insurance if you feel compelled, but expect to see a Westbrook touchdown or two Sunday night in Chicago.

Brett Favre: The veteran QB’s numbers have been acceptable as a low-end fantasy No. 1 to this point (six TDs vs. three INTs) even as he’s learning on the fly with the New York Jets. Expect him to soar in the coming weeks (vs. Arizona, Cincinnati, Oakland, Kansas City).

PROCEED WITH CAUTION

Steven Jackson: From last season’s struggles to his holdout during camp, we had enough worries about Jackson entering the season. So far he and the miserable St. Louis Rams have done nothing to quell our fears, and the switch to QB Trent Green doesn’t help. This situation’s a mess.

Roy Williams: If the Detroit Lions can’t figure out Williams needs to get more than three targets a game, there’s no hope for them. With frustration mounting, Mike Martz gone and Calvin Johnson taking on a bigger role, I’m officially worried about our boy Roy.


Randy Moss: From Moss’ perspective, QB Matt Cassel looks a lot more like Andrew Walter than Tom Brady so far. Might it be that Moss is only as good as the quarterback throwing to him? If true, it could be a long year.

Braylon Edwards: We know his shoulder’s bothering him, but Edwards better start pulling down some catches starting this Sunday at Cincinnati, or he’s going to cost QB Derek Anderson and maybe coach Romeo Crennel their jobs. He’s got a long way to go in proving he’s a fantasy No. 1

Photos by The Associated Press.

An early football top 10

Never too early to start thinking about next season, right?

Here's a peek at the top 10 names on my football board for 2008. Remember, all predictions are subject to change, but here's how I've got them slotted right now:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson: Even in a "down" year, he led the league in rushing. Not too shabby.

2. Brian Westbrook: Versatile little guy never disappoints but always seems to get disrespected on draft day. Not by me, though.

3. Adrian Peterson: Rookie put to rest injury/timeshare worries with an awesome year. Late-season tailspin is a concern, but upside is too good to ignore.

4. Joseph Addai: A workhorse back with young legs and a nose for the end zone? I'll take it.

5. Tom Brady: Amazing '07 pushes him way up the draft board, and with good reason. But I'd bet the Pats reassess their running game this offseason, meaning Brady's numbers will dip slightly.

6. Steven Jackson: Here's hoping the Rams improve their offensive line in '08. Maybe then Jackson will have the kind of season he was supposed to this year.

7. Peyton Manning: Old reliable gets slotted behind Brady for the first time. But he's still as steady as they come.

8. Frank Gore: With Mike Martz taking over the 49ers' offense, a healthy Gore could approach Marshall Faulk territory if everything falls into place.

9. Randy Moss: He's found a comfort zone with Brady and the Pats. Twenty-three TDs will be hard to touch, but he'll try.

10. Tony Romo: I don't think he'll be going on vacation anytime soon. Big things will be expected in Big D next year.