Week 2 Recap, Part I: How 'bout them Cowboys?

- The Cowboys are a mess. The only ones who should undoubtedly be in your lineup each week right now are Miles Austin and probably Jason Witten. Tony Romo's got just 2 TDs in two weeks, and Marion Barber and Felix Jones are afterthoughts behind a shaky offensive line.

- Michael Turner was off to a fine start against Arizona (75 yards on 8 carries) before exiting against with a groin injury. Jason Snelling (129 rushing yards, 57 receiving yards, 2 TDs) got to reap the benefits of injuries to turner and second-stringer Jerious Norwood - but I'll give you a dollar if you actually started him.

- Two games and we're still waiting for top-five pick Ray Rice to find the end zone. Problem is, the Ravens have faced two very good Ds in the Jets and Bengals. Figure Rice will have his best day so far in Week 3 vs. Cleveland.

- Todd Haley is messing with us. The Chiefs coach gave Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles an equal number of carries in Week 1, then Jones gets twice as many (22 to Charles' 11) in Week 2. That makes both of those guys a questionable play this week against San Francisco, unfortunately.

- Michael Vick bailed out those who picked him up this week with 284 yards passing and 2 TDs. Unfortunately it's now back to the bench with Kevin Kolb returning to starting duty for the Eagles. You may want to keep Vick on your bench, too, if Kolb should falter.

- Packers TE Jermichael Finley is a big play waiting to happen. Four catches for 103 yards for the big fella on Sunday, and he had one more target than both Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.

- You may want to think twice about starting your RBs against the Steelers defense after they limited both Turner (42 yards) and Chris Johnson (34 yards) in consecutive weeks. The Bucs' Cadillac Williams is up next - good luck with that.

- Just when you were about to declare Brett Favre (1 TD, 4 INTs in 2010) a bust, he gets a crack at the Lions in Week 3.


Photo by The Associated Press

Week 2 Start 'Em: Bradshaw, Bowe, Bryant

- RB AHMAD BRADSHAW at Indianapolis: Bradshaw looked like the best runner in the Giants’ backfield Sunday, rushing 20 times for 76 yards and a TD while Brandon Jacobs mustered just 44 yards on 12 carries. Now Bradshaw gets to face a reeling Colts D that was terrorized by Arian Foster in Week 1.

- WR DWAYNE BOWE at Cleveland: His season debut was forgettable (1 catch, 14 yards), and though he was targeted only five times, that led all Chiefs receivers on what was a rainy Monday night. Bowe is still a dangerous WR1 and K.C.'s best option, and this matchup should help him prove it.

- WR DEZ BRYANT vs. Chicago: The rookie was targeted a team-high 12 times by QB Tony Romo in Week 1. Just so we're clear, that's more than Miles Austin and more than Jason Witten. There's a good chance these boys will tear up Chicago, which makes Bryant a pretty good WR2 or Flex option.

Draft recap: How my team looks

We held the 5th annual Newsroom Fantasy League draft over the weekend at Buffalo Wild Wings (highly recommend their draft party deal, by the way). We expanded from 10 to 12 teams this year, and by random draw I ended up with the 10th overall pick. I'm also the defending champion.

We have to carry 2 QBs, 4 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs, 2 Ks and 2 D/ST. Regular scoring rules and a snake draft.

Here's how my squad turned out, with round of selection in parentheses and commentary below:

JERSEY SURE

QB Tony Romo (3)
QB Chad Henne (11)

RB Ryan Grant (2)
RB Felix Jones (4)
RB Marion Barber (6)
RB Donald Brown (8)

WR Randy Moss (1)
WR Hakeem Nicks (5)
WR Mike Wallace (7)
WR Mike Williams (9)

TE Owen Daniels (10)
TE John Carlson (14)

K Ryan Longwell (13)
K Matt Bryant (16)

DEF Steelers (12)
DEF Browns (15)

Chose Randy Moss over Steven Jackson with my first pick at No. 10 overall. The running backs were flying off the board and S-Jax was probably a good value at that point, but I just don't have a good feeling about him this year.

Wasn't planning to have so many Cowboys on my team, but that's the way it worked out. I had to go RB with my second pick (Ryan Grant) and then sweat it out until the third round to grab the last elite QB (Tony Romo) left. That made Felix Jones a little more appealing to me as my second RB, and Marion Barber was the best remaining RB in Round 6. I'm very aware of the Cowboys' offensive struggles this preseason, thank you.

I could tell I was a little higher on my WRs than the rest of the league. I got Hakeem Nicks in the fifth round and Mike Wallace in the seventh, and I believe they can both produce like solid WR2s.

Mike Williams of the Bucs was kind of a sleeper in the ninth round. Ditto for Donald Brown in the eighth as my RB4 - he was the one remaining back that offered the most upside if his team's No. 1 (Joseph Addai) were to miss any time.

A little concerned about my No. 1 TE (Owen Daniels) since he's coming off a torn ACL and he could be questionable for Week 1 of the regular season. But I decided to wait on a TE until the 10th round after some of the others I was targeting (Brent Celek, Zach Miller) were swiped from me. But I still think Daniels offers huge upside if he can put the injury behind him, and I feel like I have a solid, top-15 backup (John Carlson) as insurance.

I have Ryan Longwell as the No. 2 kicker on my board but I believe he was the fifth one taken. Matt Bryant is just a flier since he'll kick in a dome in Atlanta for a decent offense.

Defenses are a crapshoot, but the Steelers are usually a safe pick. I don't particularly like the Browns, but I do like the idea of Josh Cribbs returning kicks.

8/15 Bust of the Day: Tom Brady

QB TOM BRADY, Patriots




Before you flip out and call me a crazy Brady hater (or worse), please read this blog carefully. I'm not predicting Tom Terrific's days as a fantasy force are over. I'm not saying he's washed up or not worth drafting. I'm simply stating my belief that Brady will fail to deliver on the general consensus of expectations for him this year, which is how I define a bust.

But first, the positives: Brady's currently playing for a new contract, as is his top receiver, the always dangerous Randy Moss. Standout slot man Wes Welker is progressing nicely from reconstructive knee surgery. The Pats still don't have a go-to running back, which means plenty of pass attempts. And Brady's more than a year removed from a devastating knee injury of his own.

Now check this out: I'm seeing Brady being touted as a definite-top-5/possibly-top-3/maybe-top-overall QB in many fantasy circles, but a lot of that is still based on memories of his record-breaking, pre-injury 2007 season. Take away that 50-TD anomaly, and he's never thrown for more than 28 scores in a season. Granted, he equaled that number last year and also had his second-most passing yards (4,398) - yet he still finished as the seventh-rated fantasy QB in standard-scoring leagues.

Other QBs have closed the gap on old stalwarts Brady and Peyton Manning - not just new standard-bearer Drew Brees but also young upstarts like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers and Tony Romo. Brady still might be a safe fantasy pick, but it depends where you're picking him too, because there are others available who might have more upside or be even safer. Remember, Brady's 33 years old (and so is Moss for that matter) and is going to eventually decline. Nobody wants to spend a first- or second-round pick on him the year that happens.

That's all I'm sayin'.

8/11 Bust of the Day: Dez Bryant

Dez Bryant has already made quite a name for himself, and he hasn’t played a down in the NFL yet.

Bryant, a decorated wide receiver at Oklahoma State, had to sit out most of his junior season because he lied to the NCAA about meeting with Deion Sanders. Then, after being selected in the first round of April’s NFL Draft by the Cowboys, he made waves a few weeks ago when he refused to carry the shoulder pads of veteran WR Roy Williams, violating a longstanding rookie tradition.

In the long run we may look back and laugh at such nonsense when Bryant morphs into the next Michael Irvin, as many observers are predicting for the youngster. The 6-foot-2, 225-pounder certainly has the size and the ball skills Irvin displayed coming out of The U, and I have no doubt that, if healthy, Bryant will supplant the underwhelming Williams sooner or later and crack Dallas’ starting lineup. But his health is a concern, as he’s currently nursing a sprained ankle suffered July 30, an injury originally expected to keep him sidelined for 4-6 weeks. And that means he’s already going to be behind the curve, always a dangerous proposition for rookie WRs, who tend to not make huge impacts to begin with.

It’s not that I don’t think Bryant will turn out to be an exceptional pro long-term or have any value short-term. It’s just that I think people (especially Cowboys fans) will recognize the name and the skill set and tend to overvalue him on draft day. Dallas QB Tony Romo has a lot of mouths to feed (Williams, Miles Austin, Jason Witten, Felix Jones ...), so a projection of, say, 700-800 yards and 5 TDs for Bryant in his first season is more than fair. But there are a lot of receivers who can put up those numbers, and many are likely to go later in your draft than a big name like Bryant. He’s promising, but a fantasy No. 3 at best right now.

Week 8 Recap

Some random fantasy thoughts while tuning into the Fox Favre Cam ....

- Could be a great time to trade Brett Favre if you drafted him as your backup and have a capable No. 1 guy. I think his 4-TD game against his old team Sunday may end up being his high-water mark, stats-wise, this year, and he'll inevitably slow down and cool off as the season wears on.

- Hard to believe Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards and two TDs and wasn't the best running back on the field Sunday in Tennessee. Chris Johnson laid the hammer down with 228 rushing yards and two TDs of his own. Those who drafted Matt Forte ahead of either of these guys could only watch with tears in their eyes.

- Speaking of Forte, the Bears RB justified his presence on your roster for another week (90 yards, 2 TDs vs. Cleveland), but he'll be hard-pressed for an encore against the Cardinals' run D this week.

- Michael Turner has now scored in six straight games (8 TDs total). The streak will continue in Week 9 against Washington.

- Did Ryan Moats (126 yards, 3 TDs vs. Buffalo) just kill Steve Slaton's fantasy value? It's very possible ... see this week's Hot Pickups for more.

- Tony Romo (3 TDs) appears to have gotten back on track, mostly thanks to the emergence of Miles Austin as a fantasy star. The real litmus test for the boy wonder comes in the next two weeks on the road against Philly and Green Bay.

- Your allegiance to Steven Jackson hopefully paid off with 145 yards and his first rushing TD of the year Sunday against Detroit. Give the guy credit for playing hard and churning out the yardage despite the Rams' ineptitude.

- Joseph Addai threw more TD passes than Peyton Manning in Week 8. No need to worry about Peyton though - he's usually good for 1 or 2 of these TD-free games in a season, but you'll get more than your money's worth from him for the rest of the year. He could throw 4 against Houston this week.

- Eli Manning seems to be in one of his annual slumps, but he's probably worth sticking with as your No. 2 (he's thrown at least 1 TD every week) unless there's a more attractive free-agent option.

-Ray Rice has scored a TD or rushed for 100 yards in each of the past 5 weeks.

- DeAngelo Williams rushes for 158 yards, Jonathan Stewart scores two TDs. Can't have your cake and eat it too if you drafted a Panthers running back.

Start 'Em: Week 6

-RB THOMAS JONES vs. Buffalo: Sure, TJ hasn't cracked 100 yards rushing since Week 1, and he's averaging 3.7 yards a carry. However, he's got 3 TDs in the past two weeks, and Buffalo's defense is ranked 29th against the run.

-RB JONATHAN STEWART at Tampa Bay: Stewart finally came to life last week - his 10 carries were his most since Week 1, and he scored his first TD of the season. Maybe he's finally healthy and ready to make a serious contribution. The Bucs should help him in that cause.

-TE JERMICHAEL FINLEY vs. Detroit: We knew Finley had the size and the talent to be a fantasy force, but last Sunday's 6-catch, 128-yard, 1-TD showing against Minnesota officially signaled his breakout. Hopefully he'll have some more balls coming his way in the next four weeks against the Lions, Browns, Vikings (again) and Bucs.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

-Tony Romo threw for 351 yards and two late TDs, including the OT game-winner to Miles Austin, against the Chiefs.

-Tim Hightower saw only 6 carries for 17 yards, but one of them was a 1-yard TD run. He also caught 5 passes for 30 yards, if that excites you.

-Seven catches, 85 yards and a TD for Hines Ward against Detroit. Money.

Hot Pickups: Week 6

FIVE STARS (Out of five)

QB MATT HASSELBECK, Seahawks: Just in case someone in your league got impatient and dropped him, Hasselbeck reminded owners he can be a fantasy force when healthy with his 241-yard, four-TD effort Sunday against Jacksonville. He's definitely usable when he's got a favorable matchup, and there will be a bunch of those this year, including against Arizona this week and later in the year against St. Louis, Detroit, Houston and Arizona again.

WR MILES AUSTIN, Cowboys: Could Austin be that big-play, Terrell Owens-like receiver Tony Romo has missed all year? His monstrous 10-catch, 250-yard, 2-TD performance should be a resounding yes. There are a number of reasons to be pessimistic - Roy Williams was out; Austin had just 4 catches entering Week 5; the bulk of his yards came after the catch; and the Chiefs are god-awful. But if Wade Phillips has any interest in keeping his job (sometimes I'm not so sure), he'll find ways to keep getting Austin the ball following Week 6's bye. There's a lot of upside here.

FOUR STARS

WR JEREMY MACLIN, Eagles: If it weren't for Austin's outburst, we'd all be talking about Maclin's 6-catch, 142-yard, 2-TD day. He'd had a pretty quiet rookie campaign before Sunday, but let's just say the Bucs defense has been susceptible to the kind of long bombs Maclin was born to catch. I'm not sure how consistently Maclin will be targeted from here on out - Kevin Curtis (knee) had been ahead of Maclin on the depth chart, and teammate DeSean Jackson was coming off two huge games before catching just 1 pass Sunday - but the rookie could break off a big play or two against Oakland or Washington in the next two weeks.

TWO STARS

TE BENJAMIN WATSON, Patriots: You know tight ends aren't consistently targeted in the Pats' offense, and Watson is no exception. However, he caught his third TD pass of the season Sunday (he had 2 in Week 1 against Buffalo), and he's going against the awful Titans and Bucs defenses in successive weeks. As long as the head injury he suffered Sunday doesn't turn out to be too serious, Watson could be worth the gamble if you're fishing for a TD.

Photo by The Associated Press

Week 5 recap

- Turns out Hot Pickup Jerome Harrison (8 rushes for 21 yards) was just a mirage. Jamal Lewis carried the rock 31 times for 117 yards for the Browns and apparently is their No. 1 option. And hold off on Mohamed Massaquoi's coronation as a fantasy starter after his 1-catch effort in Cleveland's field goal-fest with the Bills.

- Rashard Mendenhall (15 carries, 77 yards, TD) continues to make his case for a big chunk of the carries for the Steelers after Willie Parker returns from injury, which could happen next week.

- Tony Romo salvaged what could have been a disaster against K.C. thanks to a TD pass very late in the fourth quarter and another in overtime. Most of the credit goes to Miles Austin (10 catches, 250 yards, 2 TDs), who may have jumped up the Cowboys' depth chart while ineffective Roy Williams was on the shelf.

-Is Larry Johnson (21 carries, 37 yards, 1.8 average) anything more than a fantasy bench player at this point?

- Brandon Jacobs owners have to be steaming after watching Ahmad Bradshaw plow his way to two TDs against Oakland, when their guy has only one rushing TD on the year. But Jacobs had two cracks down near the goal-line before the Giants subbed in Bradshaw for his first TD. Regardless, they're both still looking like good week-to-week options.

- Jeremy Maclin's skills (6 catches, 142 yards, 2 TDs) were finally unleashed in Philly on a day when teammate DeSean Jackson managed just 1 catch for 1 yard. We might see a similar story next week if Oakland's Nnamdi Asomugha is blanketing Jackson and Maclin is free to roam.

- That's the Roddy White (8 catches, 210 yards, 2 TDs) we drafted.

- Thanks for nothing, Mike Sims-Walker (inactive - violation of teams rule).

Start 'Em: Week 5

- TONY ROMO at Kansas City: If the dude can't get his act together against this sorry defense, there might not be much hope for him as a viable fantasy QB the rest of the year. I'm expecting a big game with his back to the wall.

- TIM HIGHTOWER vs. Houston: It was an up-and-down first three weeks of the season for Hightower as he alternated bad and good games on the ground. I'm willing to bet it's a good week this Sunday against the Texans, who are allowing 165 rushing yards a game and have allowed a league-high eight ballcarriers to run across the goal line.

- HINES WARD vs. Detroit: He's had more catches than teammate Santonio Holmes in each of the past few weeks and has a good chance to score his first TD of the season this week against a Lions secondary that's allowed the most scores through the air.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

-Clinton Portis had his best game of the season (25 carries, 98 yards) against the Bucs.

- Brett Favre had his best game of the season (271 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) against the Packers.

- Ahmad Bradshaw had his second-best game of the year (12 carries, 64 yards) against the Chiefs.

Week 4 recap

Some random thoughts ...

- Rashard Mendenhall (above) finally had that coming-out party I and many others predicted (29 carries, 165 yards, 2 TDs subbing for starter Willie Parker vs. San Diego). But did you have the patience to hold onto him through the first three weeks of the season? I'm guessing not, especially after Week 3's embarrassment, in which he got zero carries because he hasn't learned the playbook. The Steelers have a legit RB controversy on their hands entering Sunday's game against Detroit, and Mendenhall must be owned.

- Good to see Matt Forte (121 yards, TD) finally look like a first-round fantasy draft choice. The Lions will do that for you.

- No need to worry too much about using Kevin Smith on a weekly basis. Although he only managed 30 rushing yards against a tough Bears D, the Lions had enough confidence in him (despite a sore shoulder) to give him 19 carries, including goal-line touches, and he responded with two short TDs. That's enough to make him a borderline No. 2 this week even though he'll be running against the Steelers.

- You better believe Cleveland's Jerome Harrison will be on my Hot Pickups list this week after his 121 yards against Cincinnati, the season-ending injury to one of my big sleeper picks, James Davis, and Jamal Lewis' creakiness.

- Chances are if you drafted the Panthers' Steve Smith this summer, someone in your league probably made a dumb joke about how "you mean the GIANTS' Steve Smith, right?" and everyone had a big laugh. Well, they aren't laughing now, not after the New York WR caught his third and fourth TD passes of the season on Sunday and the Panthers star has yet to hit the end zone. Now, the original Steve Smith could still end up being more valuable for fantasy purposes, but he's already in the hole, and the Giants' Smith faces Oakland this week. Keep starting him.

- Continue to start Mike Sims-Walker (7 catches, 91 yards, 2 TDs), along with every receiver facing the Titans secondary. Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Dallas Clark, you're on deck!

- Tony Romo (255 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) gets one more chance to show me something against the awful Chiefs this week before I come up with a Plan B for my starting QB.

- Steve Slaton (89 total yards, 1 rush TD, 1 receiving TD, 1 fumble lost) is trying to work his way back into fantasy owners' hearts. Have another productive game against Arizona this week, Steve, and maybe you'll win us back for good.

Photo by The Associated Press

No use crying over shattered playoff dreams

Got a sob story from a Week 15 playoff loss?

I know of at least one matchup that was decided on that controversial Pittsburgh Steelers “touchdown” late Sunday afternoon.

Pass the Kleenex.

Or perhaps you started a seemingly fool-proof lineup consisting of some or all of the following: Eli Manning (191 yards, zero TDs, two INTs), Marion Barber (eight carries, 2 yards), Reggie Bush (46 total yards), Anquan Boldin (six catches, 34 yards), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (five catches, 19 yards) and Jeremy Shockey (one catch, 11 yards).

Yuck.

And what about yours truly? One of my playoff teams (the other had a first-round bye) put together its second-lowest point total of the whole season at the absolute worst time and got bounced. My decision to bench Tyler Thigpen (one TD passing, one rushing) in favor of Matt Ryan (zero TDs) at the last minute because of the poor weather forecast in Kansas City didn’t help my cause, but even that wouldn’t have been enough to save my team from its fate as an also-ran.

Just goes to show you that no one is exempt from bad luck, bad timing and bad decisions, even at playoff time. Those who are lucky enough to still be playing this week should keep this in mind as they try to dial up one more victory.

As you prep for your Week 16 showdown, consider the following:


g The Minnesota Vikings’ Tarvaris Jackson threw only 11 passes Sunday, and four of them went for touchdowns against what the Arizona Cardinals are calling a pass defense. I’m not advocating starting Jackson this week against the Atlanta Falcons, but I am giving New England Patriots QB Matt Cassel (above) my full seal of approval against a Cards D that gives up an average of two passing TDs a game, worst in the league. Randy Moss and Wes Welker are must-starts too.

g Tony Romo is a relatively safe play at QB (assuming his sore back feels better), but don’t go overboard with your expectations. The Baltimore Ravens have not allowed a quarterback to throw for more than one TD against them since Derek Anderson did so in Week 9.

g Two very sneaky RB choices that will get lost in the matchup of Drew Brees’ high-flying New Orleans Saints vs. the lowly Detroit Lions: Pierre Thomas (eight total TDs in his past five games) and Kevin Smith (212 total yards and a TD in his past two games). Both would be nice No. 2 RBs or flex players this week.


g Is it a coincidence some of the most productive running backs in recent weeks have been those with younger, fresher legs? Marshawn Lynch, Steve Slaton (above), Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew all fit that category — and all face suspect run defenses this week.

g It doesn’t really matter who starts at quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — his priority will be getting the ball downfield to Antonio Bryant, who’s caught four TDs in his past three games. He has a good shot at another one against the San Diego Chargers, who’ve allowed the third-most scores through the air in the league.

g Just for old time’s sake, you may want to start the San Francisco 49ers’ Isaac Bruce (26 catches, 333 yards and two TDs in his past four games) as he returns to his old stomping grounds, the home turf of the St. Louis Rams.

Your guide to success in important Week 14

Forget about putting up the Christmas lights this weekend and tell your significant other you’re taking a pass on that shopping trip.

This is a crucial week in fantasy football, either the regular season finale or the opening of the playoffs. We can’t be bothered with trivial stuff like holiday preparations, household chores and human interaction. It’s Week 14! Enough nonsense . . . we’ve got more important things to think about, like who to start and who to sit this week.

START ’EM

g RB Adrian Peterson at Detroit: The biggest no-brainer in the history of no-brainers.

g RB Larry Johnson at Denver: He torched the Broncos for 198 yards and two TDs in Week 4.

g RB DeAngelo Williams vs. Tampa Bay: I make it a point to never sit a running back coming off a four-TD game. Call me crazy.

g RB Brian Westbrook at New York Giants: See above.

g QB Matt Cassel at Seattle: Welcome back to reality, son. Now go out there and carve up that Seahawks “secondary.”

g QB Kurt Warner vs. St. Louis: If he doesn’t throw for at least 300 yards and two TDs, I’ll buy you a drink.

g WR Bernard Berrian at Detroit: His best fantasy output of the season was against — you guessed it — the Lions in Week 6 (five catches, 131 yards, TD).

g WR Lance Moore vs. Atlanta: Has caught six TDs in his past five games and should continue the trend.

g WR Torry Holt at Arizona: He has only two TD receptions this year, but one came against the generous Cardinals pass defense in Week 9.

SIT ’EM

g RB Jamal Lewis at Tennessee: I’m no defensive coordinator, but do you think the Titans might stack the box this week with Ken Dorsey playing QB for Cleveland?

g RB Clinton Portis at Baltimore: It pains me to say this because I know he’s carried you (and Washington) all year. But Portis is banged-up, coming off his worst game of the year (22 yards) and facing the Ravens. That’s three strikes.

g RB Marion Barber at Pittsburgh: Uncertainty about his toe injury and the Steelers’ run defense make me very apprehensive this week.

g RB Willis McGahee vs. Washington: How can you start a guy who suited up the week before but had no carries?

g QB Tony Romo at Pittsburgh: Games against San Francisco and Seattle were walks in the park, but did you see what the Steelers did to poor Cassel last week? Factor in the prospect of no Barber in the backfield and bad weather in the Steel City, and I’m considering other options.

g QB Jake Delhomme vs. Tampa Bay: The Bucs are simply too tough. There are at least 20 other quarterbacks with more upside this week.

g WR Braylon Edwards at Tennessee: No way am I putting my playoff chances in this guy’s hands. Or to be more accurate, letting them bounce off this guy’s fingertips.

g WR Chad Johnson at Indianapolis: There’s a big difference between doing funny things in the end zone and having an absolute joke of a season. I bet I could close my eyes, pick up a random receiver off the waiver wire and get more production out of him this week than Ocho Cinco.

g WR Roy Williams at Pittsburgh: This guy’s stock has plummeted more than — well, it’s just as bad as all the stocks out there in real life, I guess. But there’s no reason to start him in any fantasy league this week.

Touchdowns and turkey: Perfect together

The NFL’s Thanksgiving Day games aren’t all that intriguing, but fantasy players won’t complain. We get three midweek matchups, all seen on national TV (by those of us lucky enough to get the NFL Network, anyway) and all with a fair share of fantasy-relevant stars involved.

The holiday slate features a battle of the birds (Eagles vs. Cardinals), and quite a few turkeys (Andy Reid, Donovan McNabb, the 0-11 Detroit Lions). We’ll all be watching the games - between naps, of course - and trying to get our teams off to a good start in Week 13. So in that spirit, let’s break down the matchups from a fantasy perspective:

TENNESSEE AT DETROIT

Kerry Collins, NFL MVP? I’m warming up to the idea.

Kerry Collins, fantasy starter? I’ll buy that too, at least for this week.

If there’s ever a time to start the old-timer, this is it. He’s coming off his three best efforts of the season, statistically speaking (six TDs in his past three games), and he’s facing a Lions defense that’s given up 18 scores through the air. Collins and top receiver Justin Gage are pretty decent options this week.

Even better options: The Titans’ dual rushing threat of Chris Johnson and LenDale White, going up against Detroit’s league-worst rush defense (166 yards allowed per game). Rising rookie star Johnson is an obvious must-start, but don’t let White’s one-carry, minus-one-yard, one-temper-tantrum effort last week scare you off. Coach Jeff Fisher will make sure White keeps his attitude in check, and the best way to do that is give him the rock early and often against a soft D.

As for the Lions, I like rookie Kevin Smith as a No. 2 running back this week since the Titans aren’t as good against the run as you might expect. They are, however, great against the pass, but I’d still start Calvin Johnson (a TD in six of his past seven games) and cross my fingers.

SEATTLE AT DETROIT

The Tony Romo Comeback Tour continues. Remember when America’s favorite advocate for the homeless tossed five TDs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2006 Turkey Day game? It wouldn’t surprise me if he came close to matching that against the Seahawks’ secondary. Romo and Terrell Owens (213 yards, TD) are clicking right now, so expect fireworks.

Marion Barber will find room to run, so start him with out hesitation. His Seahawks counterpart and former backfield mate, Julius Jones, will start and should have a little extra motivation, but I wouldn’t use him as anything more than a No. 3 RB or flex player if I could help it. And I’d avoid Matt Hasselbeck and the Seahawks receivers.

ARIZONA AT PHILADELPHIA

Speaking of extra motivation, McNabb should be out to prove his detractors wrong, and I’m expecting big things against a Cardinals defense that:

g Has allowed a league-high 22 passing touchdowns

g Has been burnt by the likes of Shaun Hill (two TDs) and Eli Manning (three TDs) in recent weeks, and

g Is traveling cross-country with a short week of practice.

Sounds like a recipe for a Thanksgiving treat from McNabb. I’d consider DeSean Jackson too if I’m short at wide receiver, and I’d take a long, hard look at a seriously banged-up
Brian Westbrook as one of my RB options.

On the flip side, Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are on an absolute tear and cannot be benched. Steve Breaston is still getting looks but remains a fantasy No. 3 in most leagues. And Tim Hightower has been a boom-or-bust proposition in recent weeks, so start with caution.

Photos by The Associated Press

Using the NFL schedule to your advantage

As the days get colder and the NFL moves into Week 12, our thoughts begin to turn toward playoff time.

Every week is critical now that we can see the light at the end of the tunnel and begin to position our teams for a postseason run. It’s time to take a serious look at the remainder of the NFL schedule and the matchups that will help you maximize your fantasy team’s potential.

I often use statistical rankings as a guide for which teams are the toughest and easiest to run and pass against. Of course anything can happen on any given week, but a quarterback who faces a few of the league’s 10 weakest pass defenses in the coming weeks is more likely to outperform his peers and give your team a boost in these critical games.

I’ve analyzed the schedule and crunched the numbers for you. Here are some of the players with the best and worst matchups in the next few weeks:

FULL SPEED AHEAD

g Matt Ryan and Roddy White of the Atlanta Falcons bobbled last week’s potential game-winning bomb, but after a tough test this week against Carolina, they should shine against San Diego and New Orleans in Weeks 13 and 14.

g Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte’s been on a decent roll lately. That should continue this week against St. Louis and pick up again when he closes out the season vs. Green Bay and Houston.

g Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo’s pinky shouldn’t be much of a problem against San Francisco this week or Seattle the next - assuming he's done hanging out with homeless dudes.

g Jamal Lewis hasn’t cracked 90 rushing yards in a game this season for the Cleveland Browns. His best chances come when his team hosts Houston this week and Indianapolis the next — then the fun’s over at Tennessee.

g As if the Titans’ running duo of LenDale White and Chris Johnson wasn’t already valuable, check out these upcoming opponents: Detroit (Week 13), Cleveland (Week 14), Houston (Week 15) and Indianapolis (Week 17).

g Miami Dolphins QB Chad Pennington gets to air it out against St. Louis, San Francisco, Kansas City and his old team, the Jets, in four of the season’s final five weeks.

g Jeff Garcia of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could do some damage against Detroit this week, New Orleans the next and San Diego’s league-worst pass defense in Week 16, aka the Super Bowl in most fantasy leagues.

g Brett Favre and his receiving corps could put on a show against Denver (Week 13), San Francisco (Week 14) and Seattle (Week 16).

g Buffalo’s Trent Edwards and Lee Evans have been relegated to the bench in most leagues. But they might be able to get back on track thanks to a schedule that includes Kansas City, San Francisco, the New York Jets and Denver.

NOT SO FAST

g Marion Barber deserves the benefit of the doubt, but his Cowboys face a brutal stretch of run-stuffers starting in Week 13 — Pittsburgh, the Giants and Baltimore.

g Detroit Lions rookie RB Kevin Smith also must run a brutal three-game gauntlet starting this week — Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Minnesota.

g It looks like Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is starting to break out of his funk, and facing Cincinnati this week might continue the trend. But after that he meets four brick walls known as New England, Dallas, Baltimore and Tennessee.

g You hardly ever sit Saints QB Drew Brees, but be warned: He faces two of the league’s top five pass defenses (Green Bay, Tampa Bay) the next two weeks.

g Washington Redskins RB Clinton Portis has been excellent this year when healthy. So he might just be a little less excellent against the Giants and Ravens in Weeks 13 and 14.

Drama in Dallas

Love them or hate them, you’ve got to admit the Dallas Cowboys sure know how to keep things interesting.

There’s never a lack of drama with America’s Team, and this week has been no different, from the pinkie injury heard ‘round the world to the latest case of Pacman being Pacman. The ‘Boys began their season starring on HBO’s “Hard Knocks,” and the plot twists have only gotten better as the year has unfolded.

Sometimes the circus atmosphere is almost too much to take, but fantasy owners need to keep tuning into the latest dispatches from Big D. The reason is the vast amount of skill players on the Cowboys’ roster – in fact, if you play in the average 10- or 12-team league, there’s a good chance your roster includes at least one guy who wears a giant star on his helmet.

With that in mind, let’s examine some of the biggest storylines emanating Dallas from a fantasy perspective and how they affect your squad.

Start with the news of Tony Romo’s broken finger, which will keep the quarterback out for perhaps the next four weeks. I’ve actually heard some TV talking heads suggest replacing Romo with boring Brad Johnson is a good thing because of all the kid’s boneheaded miscues, and maybe there’s a little truth to that. However, in fantasy, we don’t really care that much about turnovers as long as a QB is producing, and Romo (14 TDs, 281 yards a game) has statistically outperformed most of his peers. It’s going to be a rough few weeks for anyone who’s been riding high thanks to Romo this year.

However, there’s reason for optimism. When Romo returns, he’ll have arguably the league’s best receiving corps at his disposal, thanks to Dallas’ acquisition of Roy Williams from the Detroit Lions for a boatload of 2009 draft picks.

Williams was unhappy, underused and underperforming in Detroit but has been handed his personal “Get Out of Jail Free” card just as the self-imploding Lions placed quarterback Jon Kitna on injured reserve, ending his season. Williams wasn’t pleased to see Calvin Johnson getting all the targets in the Motor City, but I doubt you’ll hear many complaints from him for the time being, despite having to share the ball with Terrell Owens, Jason Witten and Co. He won’t be the No. 1 option and might not even be the clear No. 2 on his new team, but his fantasy value is certainly no less than it was with the lowly Lions.

Williams is a major talent in his prime, and once Romo gets back under center, opposing secondaries will have to pick their poison among those three receivers. That means perhaps some inconsistency at times, but you’ll want Owens and Witten in your lineup every week and Williams as the matchups dictate. That also means it’s safe to drop Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin.

I know what you’re thinking: What about Johnson, the Cowboys’ placeholder QB until Romo returns? Is he worth picking up? Well, probably, if you’re putting Romo in your IR slot or just searching the waiver wire for someone interesting. Johnson’s not going to be gunslinging or running around like a headless chicken out there, so temper your expectations – he’ll do his best to keep Williams and T.O. happy with a few deep passes a game, but mostly he’ll be dumping the ball off to Witten and relying even more on Marion Barber, who could be in for some busy afternoons with backup Felix Jones out two-to-four weeks with a hamstring injury.

As for the ‘Boys on the other side of the ball, what had been a fairly mediocre fantasy defense gets worse with the indefinite suspension of Adam “Pacman” Jones and the injury to fellow cornerback Terence Newman. I’d still probably start the Dallas D against the St. Louis Rams this week, though.

And that brings us back to the poor Lions. The results of the trade are mixed for Johnson: He’s clearly Detroit’s top receiver now, but he’s stuck with directionally-challenged Dan Orlovsky (see video) throwing him the ball, and defenses can now double-team him. Expect to see a little more of Rudi Johnson and Kevin Smith carrying the ball in Detroit.

Can you trust your fantasy QB?

In these uncertain times, it’s nice to know there’s someone you can trust.

By no means is this a political statement. I’m actually referring to your fantasy team’s quarterback, someone who can be plugged into your lineup week after week and unfailingly deliver the bulk of your points.

The problem is, there aren’t too many QBs who definitely fit this mold. Tom Brady used to be one, but we all know what happened to him this year. Peyton Manning is probably still one, even though he’s looked a little more mortal so far this year. And Tony Romo’s probably the most trustworthy QB out there right now, at least from a fantasy owner’s standpoint.

As for those who don’t own Manning or Romo, you’re probably relying on a quarterback with a lot of question marks attached to his name. I’ve taken a look at all the league’s starting signal-callers and identified those who deserve your trust the rest of the way. That’s not to say you’re hopeless if you don’t own one of the QBs who made the cut; just let this help you decide if you can count on your guy or if you need to consider an upgrade or backup plan.

Here’s how I break it down:

QBs YOU CAN TRUST

Jay Cutler: This coming-of-age QB is averaging 300 yards a game, second-best in the NFL, and has a number of options at his disposal.

Drew Brees: He leads the league in pass attempts and will continue to air it out, especially if his team’s defense doesn’t improve.

Brett Favre: His six-TD performance slants his overall numbers, but Favre will continue to improve as he learns the offense. He also has a very favorable schedule the next five weeks.

Philip Rivers: He’s starting to come down to Earth after starting with three superb games, but Rivers has already got more than half of last year’s TD total.

Eli Manning: What a difference a year makes. Eli’s been more efficient than flashy, and the schedule gets considerably tougher in a few weeks, but so far, so good.

Aaron Rodgers: Assuming his shoulder’s not hurt too badly, the Green Bay Packers will continue to let Rodgers throw, especially since they can’t run the ball very well.

Kurt Warner: Sure, he contemplated retiring, but he’s also enjoying one of his best seasons in years. Sounds like Anquan Boldin will be back in a couple weeks, which is great news for this pass-heavy offense.

Ben Roethlisberger: He’s spent a lot of time on the trainer’s table this year, but a banged-up Big Ben is still capable of a big day, as he showed last week (309 yards, three TDs) when everyone was ready to count him out.

Jason Campbell: Maybe he and his team are overachieving … or maybe Campbell’s just fulfilling his potential. He hasn’t thrown an interception yet and has some nice matchups in the coming weeks.

QBs YOU CAN'T TRUST

Derek Anderson, Marc Bulger/Trent Green, Matt Cassel, Kerry Collins, Brody Croyle/Damon Huard/Tyler Thigpen, Jake Delhomme, Trent Edwards, Joe Flacco, Matt Flynn, Gus Frerotte, David Garrard, Brian Griese/Jeff Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, Jon Kitna, Donovan McNabb, Kyle Orton, J.T. O’Sullivan, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, JaMarcus Russell, Matt Schaub.

An early football top 10

Never too early to start thinking about next season, right?

Here's a peek at the top 10 names on my football board for 2008. Remember, all predictions are subject to change, but here's how I've got them slotted right now:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson: Even in a "down" year, he led the league in rushing. Not too shabby.

2. Brian Westbrook: Versatile little guy never disappoints but always seems to get disrespected on draft day. Not by me, though.

3. Adrian Peterson: Rookie put to rest injury/timeshare worries with an awesome year. Late-season tailspin is a concern, but upside is too good to ignore.

4. Joseph Addai: A workhorse back with young legs and a nose for the end zone? I'll take it.

5. Tom Brady: Amazing '07 pushes him way up the draft board, and with good reason. But I'd bet the Pats reassess their running game this offseason, meaning Brady's numbers will dip slightly.

6. Steven Jackson: Here's hoping the Rams improve their offensive line in '08. Maybe then Jackson will have the kind of season he was supposed to this year.

7. Peyton Manning: Old reliable gets slotted behind Brady for the first time. But he's still as steady as they come.

8. Frank Gore: With Mike Martz taking over the 49ers' offense, a healthy Gore could approach Marshall Faulk territory if everything falls into place.

9. Randy Moss: He's found a comfort zone with Brady and the Pats. Twenty-three TDs will be hard to touch, but he'll try.

10. Tony Romo: I don't think he'll be going on vacation anytime soon. Big things will be expected in Big D next year.