8/12 Sleeper of the Day: Kevin Kolb

QB KEVIN KOLB, Eagles



There’s a reason the Eagles let Donovan McNabb go. This guy is it.

Philly’s QB of the future gets his shot with McNabb having been unceremoniously run out of town. He’ll be under a ton of pressure, of course (Philly and pressure are almost synonymous when it comes to sports), but the Eagles are betting he’s ready after a three-year apprenticeship. Other than the high expectations of Iggles fans, Kolb steps into an almost ideal situation.

The Texas Tech product has spent three seasons learning Andy Reid’s West Coast offense, and in two fill-in starts in 2009 he proved he's got a handle on it. He torched the Saints in Week 2, throwing for 391 yards and two 2Ds on 31-for-51 passing (but also tossed two INTs), then followed that with a 24-for-34, 327-yard, two-TD obliteration of the Chiefs. In doing so he became the first NFL QB to throw for 300 or more yards in his first two career starts.

Here's why I like Kolb this year, aside from his obvious skills: he's playing for a pass-happy team. Reid's Eagles have been among the top 10 in pass attempts in each of the past six seasons and could skew even more in that direction this year with the departure of RB Brian Westbrook. And to top it off, Kolb has some terrific young skill players to throw to in WRs DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin and emerging TE Brent Celek. I think you'll see Reid show confidence in Kolb airing it out on a weekly basis, giving him a chance to finish as a top-10 fantasy QB. There's some risk here, but not as much as you might think, and there could be a great payoff for those who scoop Kolb up after some bigger names are off the board.

Skins game: Donovan to D.C.

I'm still trying to figure out what the Philadelphia Eagles were thinking shipping their franchise QB to the Washington Redskins. I'm not opposed to Philly dealing Donovan McNabb, per se - that kind of unsentimental shedding of aging veterans has been the Eagles' way for a while now. But I am surprised they're willing to open themselves up to possibly being embarrassed by a highly motivated McNabb twice a season for the next 2-3 years.

Regardless of the Eagles' rationale, the move will have reverberations in fantasy play. For starters, McNabb has to be downgraded a bit as he moves behind a leaky offensive line that hasn't been able to protect Redskins QB Jason Campbell for years, lost its best cog with Chris Samuels' retirement this offseason and will be implementing a new blocking scheme under new coach Mike Shanahan in 2010. McNabb also leaves behind a talented trio of emerging pass-catchers (DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek) and the comfort of coach Andy Reid's West Coast system that nurtured McNabb into a fantasy stalwart. McNabb may be a serviceable fantasy QB, but there are too many question marks to count on him as your starter at this point.

On the Philly side, new starter Kevin Kolb is an intriguing fantasy prospect because of the weapons surrounding him and the trust his franchise apparently has in him. Kolb did have some nice numbers in two career starts in 2009 (718 yards, 4 TDs against the Saints and Chiefs), but for now I'm considering him a No. 2 fantasy QB with some upside.

And a final note: What's up with Washington and these aging RBs? Clinton Portis, plus Larry Johnson, PLUS Willie Parker? Good luck figuring out that logjam.

Photo by McClatchy Tribune

Week 15 recap

Some random fantasy thoughts while savoring my first playoff victory in a few years (yes!) ...

- Just when we thought Jerome Harrison had been overtaken by Chris Jennings in the pecking order of Browns running backs, Harrison goes and busts out one of the greatest rushing performances the game's ever seen - 34 carries, 286 yards, 3 TDs against Kansas City. The shame of it is the chances of anyone actually starting Harrison in Week 15 are slim to none (let me know if you did). Harrison becomes perhaps the most unlikely must-start we've ever seen this week against Oakland. You'll also want Cedric Benson (and maybe even Larry Johnson as a flex) in your lineup against a downtrodden Chiefs D.

- DeAngelo Williams' early-game ankle injury was a killer, especially because Jonathan Stewart was able to rack up 109 yards and a TD on the ground against a tough Vikings D. We may have seen the last of Williams for this year, which at least would clear the way for Stewart

- Thank you, Roy Williams for the 1 catch and 14 yards in a critical week. Miles Austin was targeted a whopping 10 times more than our boy Roy.

- Hopefully you weren't scared off by all the "Randy Moss is a quitter" talk and benefited from his 5 catches, 70 yards and a TD on Sunday. The next two weeks against Jacksonville and Houston are looking very appealing for Mr. Moss.

- Beanie Wells is coming into his own at just the right time. He had his best day as a pro (110 yards, TD), and I'm expecting an encore against St. Louis.

- No TDs for Chris Johnson - what's up with that??? It's gotten to the point that 159 total yards is just not enough from this guy.

- Vincent Jackson picked the perfect time to shine (108 yards, 2 TDs) - the first time he's scored since Week 9. He could do some more damage on Christmas night against a Titans secondary that was getting torched with regularity not that long ago.

- Steven Jackson continued playing hurt, leading the team in rushing (82 yards) and receiving (41 yards), but I fear it's going to catch up to him against a Cardinals D that's typically pretty good at bottling up the run. It doesn't help that the Rams have almost no passing game to speak of.

- It will be tempting to start Michael Turner against the Bills' porous defense, but how can you insert him in your lineup in good conscience after Sunday's 1-carry, 7-yard disaster against the Jets?

- The Raiders decided to hand the ball off to Michael Bush 18 times on Sunday against Denver, and he rewarded them with 133 yards and a TD. That's surprising, not because Bush doesn't have the talent (he does), but because he had gotten only 22 carries in the past 5 games combined. Bush could repeat that feat or better it against the Browns if he gets a similar workload.

- DeSean Jackson continued his torrid play (6 catches, 140 yards, TD) and should be a staple of fantasy lineups at this point.

- That's the Aaron Rodgers we know and love (26-for-48, 383 yards, 3 TDs). Now do it again this week against the Seahawks, buddy.

- Speaking of the Seahawks, John Carlson caught his second TD in as many games and could do it again this week vs. Green Bay, if you trust a guy whose QB is Matt Hasselbeck (1 TD, 4 INTs, 45.2 passer rating Sunday).

- And speaking of tight ends, Todd Heap caught two TDs, his first trips to the end zone since Week 2. He's still a part of the Ravens' passing attack, so don't forget about him in Week 16.

Hot Pickups: Week 13

FOUR STARS (Out of five)

RB FRED JACKSON, Bills: Freddie started the year off red hot but had been simply mediocre in recent weeks. That changed last Sunday against Miami when Jackson got 15 carries (his most in five weeks, and 12 more than teammate Marshawn Lynch) and scored his first two TDs of the season. I like Jackson on Thursday against the Jets, and I love him the following week at K.C.

WR KENNY BRITT, Titans: Think the rookie is happy with Tennessee's switch to Vince Young at QB? Britt caught his first two NFL TDs in the past two weeks and the best game of his young career on Sunday in Arizona (7 catches, 128 yards, game-winning TD). I like Britt on Sunday against Indy and I love him the following week against St. Louis.


THREE STARS

WR JASON AVANT, Eagles: With DeSean Jackson likely to sit this week with a concussion, there could be a bunch of balls headed Avant's way. He'd already seen increased action in recent weeks, including 5 catches for 94 yards last Sunday, and the Falcons' secondary has shown some cracks recently.

Start 'Em: Week 10

- RB LAURENCE MARONEY at Indianapolis: Maroney had 20 carries last week against Miami - his most since December 2007 - and has scored a TD in three straight weeks. Of course the Pats could completely switch things up and throw the ball 55 times this week or decide to give Kevin Faulk 20 carries out of nowhere, but Maroney seems to be on a hot streak.

- WR DERRICK MASON at Cleveland: The veteran Ravens receiver had his best yardage total of the year in Week 3 against the Browns (5 catches, 118 yards, TD) and could do it again on Monday night.

- TE KELLEN WINSLOW at Miami: He seemed to show some chemistry with new Bucs QB Josh Freeman last week (4 catches, 57 yards, TD) and should again serve as his safety valve. The Dolphins have also had trouble defending tight ends this year.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Joseph Addai caught a TD, ran for a TD and racked up 112 total yards against Houston.

- The Boom-or-bust DeSean Jackson decided to go bust again (2 catches, 29 yards) after three straight weeks of booming.

- Michael Crabtree only caught 3 balls for 30 yards, though he was targeted eight times. Niners QB Alex Smith decided to concentrate on throwing to Vernon Davis (10 catches) and Frank Gore (7 catches) and somebody named Jason Hill (2 TDs) and the other team (3 INTs).

Start 'Em: Week 9

- RB JOSEPH ADDAI vs. Houston: Addai hasn't sniffed 100 rushing yards this season - in fact, he hasn't topped 64 - but he's scored in six of seven games (including last week's TD pass, above) so far and is getting just enough touches (and production) to make for a solid starter this week against a so-so Texans run defense.

- WR DeSEAN JACKSON vs. Dallas: The Eagles' second-year wideout has caught a 50-plus-yard TD bomb in each of the past two weeks. You can't afford to have the kid on your bench this week.

- WR MICHAEL CRABTREE vs. Tennessee: The rookie's caught 5 and 6 balls, respectively, in his first two NFL games and is already a big part of the Niners' offense. I can envision him scoring his first career TD this week against a Titans secondary that, despite last week's shut-down effort against Jacksonville, has had its share of issues, can't you?


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- I predicted LaDainian Tomlinson would score a TD and have his best rushing total of the season against Oakland. His 56 yards didn't quite top his season high (70), but he scored TWO TDs, so put that in your pipe and smoke it.

- Jeremy Shockey caught five passes for 72 yards but didn't hit the end zone against Atlanta.

- David Garrard was downright dreadful against the Titans (14 for 27, 139 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs). I apologize.

Hot Pickups: Week 6

FIVE STARS (Out of five)

QB MATT HASSELBECK, Seahawks: Just in case someone in your league got impatient and dropped him, Hasselbeck reminded owners he can be a fantasy force when healthy with his 241-yard, four-TD effort Sunday against Jacksonville. He's definitely usable when he's got a favorable matchup, and there will be a bunch of those this year, including against Arizona this week and later in the year against St. Louis, Detroit, Houston and Arizona again.

WR MILES AUSTIN, Cowboys: Could Austin be that big-play, Terrell Owens-like receiver Tony Romo has missed all year? His monstrous 10-catch, 250-yard, 2-TD performance should be a resounding yes. There are a number of reasons to be pessimistic - Roy Williams was out; Austin had just 4 catches entering Week 5; the bulk of his yards came after the catch; and the Chiefs are god-awful. But if Wade Phillips has any interest in keeping his job (sometimes I'm not so sure), he'll find ways to keep getting Austin the ball following Week 6's bye. There's a lot of upside here.

FOUR STARS

WR JEREMY MACLIN, Eagles: If it weren't for Austin's outburst, we'd all be talking about Maclin's 6-catch, 142-yard, 2-TD day. He'd had a pretty quiet rookie campaign before Sunday, but let's just say the Bucs defense has been susceptible to the kind of long bombs Maclin was born to catch. I'm not sure how consistently Maclin will be targeted from here on out - Kevin Curtis (knee) had been ahead of Maclin on the depth chart, and teammate DeSean Jackson was coming off two huge games before catching just 1 pass Sunday - but the rookie could break off a big play or two against Oakland or Washington in the next two weeks.

TWO STARS

TE BENJAMIN WATSON, Patriots: You know tight ends aren't consistently targeted in the Pats' offense, and Watson is no exception. However, he caught his third TD pass of the season Sunday (he had 2 in Week 1 against Buffalo), and he's going against the awful Titans and Bucs defenses in successive weeks. As long as the head injury he suffered Sunday doesn't turn out to be too serious, Watson could be worth the gamble if you're fishing for a TD.

Photo by The Associated Press

Week 5 recap

- Turns out Hot Pickup Jerome Harrison (8 rushes for 21 yards) was just a mirage. Jamal Lewis carried the rock 31 times for 117 yards for the Browns and apparently is their No. 1 option. And hold off on Mohamed Massaquoi's coronation as a fantasy starter after his 1-catch effort in Cleveland's field goal-fest with the Bills.

- Rashard Mendenhall (15 carries, 77 yards, TD) continues to make his case for a big chunk of the carries for the Steelers after Willie Parker returns from injury, which could happen next week.

- Tony Romo salvaged what could have been a disaster against K.C. thanks to a TD pass very late in the fourth quarter and another in overtime. Most of the credit goes to Miles Austin (10 catches, 250 yards, 2 TDs), who may have jumped up the Cowboys' depth chart while ineffective Roy Williams was on the shelf.

-Is Larry Johnson (21 carries, 37 yards, 1.8 average) anything more than a fantasy bench player at this point?

- Brandon Jacobs owners have to be steaming after watching Ahmad Bradshaw plow his way to two TDs against Oakland, when their guy has only one rushing TD on the year. But Jacobs had two cracks down near the goal-line before the Giants subbed in Bradshaw for his first TD. Regardless, they're both still looking like good week-to-week options.

- Jeremy Maclin's skills (6 catches, 142 yards, 2 TDs) were finally unleashed in Philly on a day when teammate DeSean Jackson managed just 1 catch for 1 yard. We might see a similar story next week if Oakland's Nnamdi Asomugha is blanketing Jackson and Maclin is free to roam.

- That's the Roddy White (8 catches, 210 yards, 2 TDs) we drafted.

- Thanks for nothing, Mike Sims-Walker (inactive - violation of teams rule).

Breaking down a fantasy trade

First trade of the season:

I give up:

WR DeSean Jackson
RB Donald Brown

I get back:

WR Steve Breaston
RB Ray Rice

I like both of the guys I'm giving up. The deal was prompted by my trade partner, who's a big Eagles fan and wants a Philly player (Jackson) on his team. Jackson's my third WR behind Greg Jennings and Roy Williams (I also have Ted Ginn Jr. and Hakeem Nicks). Breaston would be a downgrade from Jackson obviously, but I feel I'm upgrading by replacing the rookie Brown with Rice, a guy I look and who I was targeteting in the draft.

I'm a little thin at WR overall but now I'm stacked at RB (Michael Turner, Marion Barber, LenDale White, Rashard Mendenhall, James Davis, plus Rice). And in this league's format I can start three RBs in a week if I choose, with Rice perhaps being a better every-week fit than White in that flex spot.

Thoughts?

9/2 Sleeper of the Day: LeSean McCoy

RB LeSEAN McCOY, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES



The rookie known as "Shady" will be playing the Correll Buckhalter role this year for Philly - which means he'll be called on whenever Brian Westbrook can't go. And if you've followed football the past few seasons you know that could mean often.

Westbrook is constantly banged-up, partly because the Eagles haven't had a dependable or dynamic back that could spell him and have had few other offensive options. That's not the case this year, as Philadelphia is counting on an infusion of young skill players - DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and McCoy - to get the Eagles over the hump and into the Super Bowl. With Westbrook still recovering from offseason ankle surgery, McCoy has gotten plenty of first-team reps in training camp and the preseason, which will only help prepare him for a big regular season role.

Shady is a younger version of Westbrook: a small, shifty runner who can catch. At the very he'll least make a strong handcuff for Westbrook owners, much more valuable than Buckhalter has been the past few years because he should see the field more often and he's more talented. If Westbrook were to miss any significant length of time this season, McCoy would instantly become a must-have RB.

How does Vick fit into the fantasy world?

Michael Vick continues to grab all the headlines and will be perhaps the biggest story in the NFL as the season opens. But that doesn't mean he should command too much attention from fantasy players.

Vick's signing with the Eagles is the kind of storyline fans and pundits will be talking about for weeks and months, but for fantasy purposes it's just another transaction. No need to go making a major overhaul to your pre-draft rankings. Sure, Vick's an intriguing late-round sleeper because Philly figures to use him in the wildly popular "Wildcat" role that often results in big plays. He gives the Eagles another skilled player who can certainly be an effective runner/passer/receiver in their West Coast offense. But honestly, how many touches can he get in an offense that also includes Pro Bowl performers like Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook and young playmakers DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin?

The idea behind the Wildcat is to utilize the elements of surprise and unpredictability, so how consistently would Vick be used anyway? At least other presumed Wildcat players around the league - Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams in Miami, Percy Harvin in Minnesota - will be taking more snaps at their regular positions throughout the game, whereas Vick would only be stepping onto the field at a few strategic points when the Eagles use the package.

Make no mistake, McNabb is the starting QB. This won't be an even timeshare. Of course, taking into account McNabb's history, there is a decent chance of him getting injured at some point and Vick perhaps taking over, but that's not something you can bank on. And even then, the Eagles do have a supposed QB of the future, Kevin Kolb (although he's hurt right now). And assuming Vick is listed on Philly's roster as a QB and is eligible at that position in fantasy leagues, it's hard to justify taking him as your No. 2 fantasy QB when you could instead own another starter in the league - say, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Matt Hasselbeck, etc. - who will see the field far more often and produce many more points on a more consistent basis.

If your league allows three QBs, by all means, take Vick. If your league allows really deep rosters with open bench spots from any position, Vick's your guy. If the Eagles for some reason use Vick exclusively as a RB/WR, snatch him up. The potential is there for some cheap fantasy points. But good luck predicting when they might come.

The true concern for fantasy purposes should rest with anyone who owns an Eagles skill player. Every time Vick touches the ball he'll be taking away potential points from Westbrook, Jackson and co. And more alarmingly, how will the signing affect McNabb's psyche? You could look at it as yet another slap in the face for a franchise QB who's been maligned by his team's fans for years, witnessed the franchise draft a potential replacement (Kolb) and who was benched by his coach last year for poor play. Now McNabb's got to deal with the circus that follows such a publicized move, and the guy may have to take a backseat to Vick at key points in the game and give up snaps. There's potential here for bad blood and fan backlash if the Eagles, clearly in a win-now-at-all-costs mode, aren't winning. And instability is never a good thing for fantasy production. Maybe it's no big deal, but it's something to think about

All-Dolphins lineup? Why not?

If you’ve been tinkering with the idea of starting an all-Miami Dolphins lineup, this might be the week to do it.

Normally this would sound a little crazy, unless we were talking about the Dan Marino-Mark Clayton-Mark Duper days of the mid-1980s, in which case it’d be totally radical.
But seriously, submitting a fantasy lineup of QB Chad Pennington, WRs Ted Ginn Jr. and Greg Camarillo and RBs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams this week might not be such a wacky idea.

That’s because the Fish are facing the Denver Broncos, who hold the distinction of being one of only two NFL teams (along with the Detroit Lions) ranked in the league’s bottom five in both passing defense and rushing defense.

Discombobulated Denver is 28th against the pass (240 yards a game, 12 TDs allowed) and 30th against the run (154 yards a game, nine TDs). They’ve been responsible for some of the biggest individual efforts we’ve seen this season – Drew Brees’ 421 passing yards in Week 3; Larry Johnson’s 198 rushing yards in Week 4; Sammy Morris’ 138 rushing yards in the first half alone last week.

The Broncos are coming off a bye, so surely they spent some of that time rewriting the defensive playbook. But it’s still not a bad idea to dive in with at least some of the Dolphins this week for their favorable matchup in South Florida.

Miami’s offense is clicking right now, with Pennington (314 yards, TD) and Ginn (seven catches, 175 yards) each coming off their best outing while wearing aqua and orange. Brown has had some big weeks running in the Dolphins’ trendy “Wildcat” offense this year (519 total yards, seven TDs). And Camarillo and Williams, usually bit players, are certainly worth consideration this week as bye-week fillers.

The point is this: Never discount the matchup when assembling your lineup. Familiarize yourself with the NFL’s weakest Ds – not by reputation, but statistically – and use that information to your advantage. For instance:

g The Indianapolis Colts are atrocious against the run; New England Patriots no-names Kevin Faulk and BenJarvus Green-Ellis are fantasy-worthy this week.

g The Kansas City Chiefs are equally allergic to playing run defense; Earnest Graham, it’s your time to shine.

g The Seattle Seahawks secondary has struggled; Donovan McNabb, Kevin Curtis, DeSean Jackson and crew could have big days Sunday.

g The Detroit Lions are inept in all areas of defense; Kyle Orton and Matt Forte will prove it.