8/13 Bust of the Day: Joseph Addai

RB JOSEPH ADDAI, Colts

There's a lot to like about Addai. He's a trusted and important part of the Colts offense. He scored 13 total TDs last year. He compiled 1,164 rushing and receiving yards in 2009. And he's playing for a new contract in 2010.

That said, why am I dissing Addai as a potential bust? Allow me to explain.

Addai's 13 TDs last year helped cover up the fact he averaged only 3.8 yards a carry, the second year in a row that number was under 4. Whether that's because the Colts offensive line is better equipped to protect Peyton Manning than to run block these days, it's hard to say. But Addai hasn't displayed a whole lot of big-play ability either - he hasn't had a run longer than 23 yards since his rookie season in 2006.

And I'll tell you who does have big-play ability: second-year back Donald Brown, Addai's backup. Brown's rookie season didn't go as well as I and some other prognositcators envisioned (281 rushing yards, 3.6 a carry, 3 TDs in 11 games). But he's flashed the explosiveness Addai has lacked - his 45-yard run in Week 7 against St. Louis last year is longer than any in Addai's career. Now that the former first-rounder has had more than a year to master the Colts' complicated offense, expect to see him take on a bigger role this year and siphon some carries from Addai. Besides, with Addai being eligible for free agency next season, Indy will probably want to figure out if their investment has what it takes to be a feature back.

I'm not saying Addai doesn't have value. His versatility and his role in the Colts' passing attack are still appealing. I just don't think he's a top-20 back this year as many are predicting.


Photo by The Associated Press

Grading my 2009 sleepers

RB JAMES DAVIS, BROWNS

I pegged Davis as a breakout player in the case of Jamal Lewis' eventual demise as a feature back. Turns out I was half right. Lewis did break down, but by that time, Davis had already suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. That left room for James Harrison to step in and get all the glory, but I still believe without the shoulder injury, that could have been Davis. So I'm giving myself a bit of a mulligan. GRADE: C-


RB LeSEAN McCOY, EAGLES

I thought Shady would have a bit more of an impact this year, especially with Brian Westbrook on the shelf so long. He did run for 3 TDs and had a few useful fantasy performances, but he also never topped 100 yards in a game and had quite a few stinkers mixed in. He does have a bright future in the league, especially with Westbrook's long-term health in question, but McCoy wasn't totally ready for prime time in 2009. GRADE: C+


RB JAMAAL CHARLES, CHIEFS

I've been pretty high on Charles for quite a while and was biding my time for Larry Johnson to lose his grip on the starting job in K.C. He did, and Charles was masterful in LJ's place. He topped 1,000 rushing yards despite appearing in only 10 games and not getting double-digit carries until taking over as the starter in mid-November. I'm giving myself major props for this one. GRADE: A+


RB AHMAD BRADSHAW, GIANTS

Bradshaw didn't have near the type of season I thought he would, but that could also be said for teammate Brandon Jacobs or the Giants in general. Bradshaw did have a couple outstanding games early in the season (104 yards vs. Tampa Bay, 110 yards and 2 TDs vs. Oakland) but never really evolved from being a marginal flex player or No. 3 back. Still, he was solid. GRADE: B


QB KYLE ORTON, BRONCOS

Orton was never very flashy - he had just one 3-TD game, in Week 16 against Philly, and topped 300 yards passing just twice - but he was never as bad as some expected, either (only two 3-INT games). I pegged him as a dependable No. 2 and ranked him 15th among fantasy QBs, and he actually slightly exceeded those expectations, finishing 14th in standard scoring ESPN leagues, above bigger names such as Carson Palmer, David Garrard, Joe Flacco, Jason Campbell, Matt Hasselbeck and Matt Ryan. GRADE: A


RB DONALD BROWN, COLTS

This one really hurt, because I thought the rookie was poised for a big breakout. He didn't get as much work as I hoped, but he wasn't extremely effective when he did (3.6 yards a carry), and he also missed several games with injury. He's still got a lot of potential and could very well overtake Joseph Addai as the Colts' lead back next year, but for now this sleeper's still dozing. GRADE: D

Start 'Em: Week 10

- RB LAURENCE MARONEY at Indianapolis: Maroney had 20 carries last week against Miami - his most since December 2007 - and has scored a TD in three straight weeks. Of course the Pats could completely switch things up and throw the ball 55 times this week or decide to give Kevin Faulk 20 carries out of nowhere, but Maroney seems to be on a hot streak.

- WR DERRICK MASON at Cleveland: The veteran Ravens receiver had his best yardage total of the year in Week 3 against the Browns (5 catches, 118 yards, TD) and could do it again on Monday night.

- TE KELLEN WINSLOW at Miami: He seemed to show some chemistry with new Bucs QB Josh Freeman last week (4 catches, 57 yards, TD) and should again serve as his safety valve. The Dolphins have also had trouble defending tight ends this year.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Joseph Addai caught a TD, ran for a TD and racked up 112 total yards against Houston.

- The Boom-or-bust DeSean Jackson decided to go bust again (2 catches, 29 yards) after three straight weeks of booming.

- Michael Crabtree only caught 3 balls for 30 yards, though he was targeted eight times. Niners QB Alex Smith decided to concentrate on throwing to Vernon Davis (10 catches) and Frank Gore (7 catches) and somebody named Jason Hill (2 TDs) and the other team (3 INTs).

Start 'Em: Week 9

- RB JOSEPH ADDAI vs. Houston: Addai hasn't sniffed 100 rushing yards this season - in fact, he hasn't topped 64 - but he's scored in six of seven games (including last week's TD pass, above) so far and is getting just enough touches (and production) to make for a solid starter this week against a so-so Texans run defense.

- WR DeSEAN JACKSON vs. Dallas: The Eagles' second-year wideout has caught a 50-plus-yard TD bomb in each of the past two weeks. You can't afford to have the kid on your bench this week.

- WR MICHAEL CRABTREE vs. Tennessee: The rookie's caught 5 and 6 balls, respectively, in his first two NFL games and is already a big part of the Niners' offense. I can envision him scoring his first career TD this week against a Titans secondary that, despite last week's shut-down effort against Jacksonville, has had its share of issues, can't you?


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- I predicted LaDainian Tomlinson would score a TD and have his best rushing total of the season against Oakland. His 56 yards didn't quite top his season high (70), but he scored TWO TDs, so put that in your pipe and smoke it.

- Jeremy Shockey caught five passes for 72 yards but didn't hit the end zone against Atlanta.

- David Garrard was downright dreadful against the Titans (14 for 27, 139 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs). I apologize.

Sit 'Em: Week 4

- FRED JACKSON at Dolphins: Freddie J has been a fantasy revelation so far, but he's got two major strikes against him this week: Miami's defense is one of the league's toughest against the run (66 yards allowed per game), and Marshawn Lynch returns from suspension this week. Hold onto Jackson, but sit him this week and wait to see how the Bills' timeshare pans out.

- MATT CASSEL vs. Giants: Let's think about this: He's coming off a game where he threw for 90 yards, his top target (Dwayne Bowe) has a hamstring injury and might not even play, and he's facing the league's top pass defense. It all adds up to keeping Cassel on your bench, unless you're desperate.

- TJ HOUSHMANDZADEH at Colts: He's a borderline play in PPR leagues this week, but even that's troublesome with Seneca Wallace under center (without Walter Jones protecting him) for the Seahawks. TJ hasn't topped 62 yards or scored a TD yet this season.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS:

- Carson Palmer led the Bengals to a big upset of the Steelers, but it wasn't helpful for fantasy purposes (183 yards, 1 TD), as I predicted.

- Joseph Addai got the job done (13 carries, 63 yards and a receiving TD) against Arizona. But Donald Brown (112 total yards) won't back down in his push for more playing time.

- Roy Williams had his highest reception total of the season (a whopping 4, for 75 yards) against Carolina but still hasn't justified his lofty draft status.

Sit 'Em: Week 3

- CARSON PALMER vs. Pittsburgh: Carson's had his share of trouble with the Steelers over the years (who hasn't?). He didn't play against them last year but threw just 1 TD against Pittsburgh in two games in 2007. And the Steelers' D is pretty good again.

- JOSEPH ADDAI vs. Arizona: This dude's act is getting old: 74 yards rushing in two games. He also had only 6 carries on Monday night against Miami. And the Cardinals' run defense has been quite good so far. Get ready, Donald Brown.

- ROY WILLIAMS vs. Carolina: Is this guy really a No. 1 WR? Is he a fantasy starter? Based on last week's one-catch effort, the answer right now is no. Put him on the shelf until further notice.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS:

- Devery Henderson had a ho-hum 3 catches for 71 yards last week.

- Pierre Thomas had only one catch for -4 yards and still hasn't carried the ball this year. His knee injury has made him a huge bust so far.

- Ben Roethlisberger threw for 221 yards and 1 TD against Chicago.

8/26 Sleeper of the Day: Donald Brown

RB DONALD BROWN, COLTS




The Colts spent a first-round draft pick this year on Brown, an outstanding collegiate running back at Connecticut who led all of Division I in rushing last year. Brown is a versatile player who has drawn raves for his ability to block and catch passes out of the backfield, and he projects to be an every-down back at the NFL level.

Indy obviously brought in Brown to compete with the underwhelming Joseph Addai for a spot in the backfield, and though I expect this to be a timeshare situation, at least initially, I wouldn't be surprised to see Brown getting more touches per game than Addai by year's end. You can grab Brown as your No. 3 RB - and much later than Addai - and get some significant points out of him, particularly if Addai finds himself once again on the trainer's table this year.

A bailout plan for your fantasy team

Your stock portfolio is tanking. Your 401(k) took a big hit. Your bank just went under, your job’s offering buyouts, and you can barely afford a gallon of milk or a tank of gas.

And worst of all, your fantasy team is 0-4.

With all the recent talk about the country’s economic mess, it got me thinking: What about a fantasy football bailout? After all, since most of us use fantasy as a pleasant diversion from all the real-life troubles we’re faced with, what fun is it if your team is struggling, too?

If you’ve had a rough four weeks to open the season, consider this column a shred of hope. Unfortunately I can’t pretend to be big government and just swoop in and forgive you for making Jeff Garcia your starting QB; nor can I divide up the points from Brett Favre’s six touchdown passes from last Sunday and distribute them to failing teams at the bottom of the standings. But what I can do is outline my own version of a fantasy bailout plan. It’s a two-pronged strategy, involving guys to start and guys to sit this week, and I guarantee it will cost the American taxpayers nowhere near $700 billion.

Here’s what you need to do to rescue your fantasy team:

Start Michael Turner. He’s alternated good and bad games (rushing totals in his first four games: 220, 42, 104, 56; touchdown totals: two, zero, three, zero). This week looks like a good one against the Green Bay Packers, who are allowing 157 rushing yards a game.

Sit LenDale White. Yes, he had a 1-yard TD run last week. But rookie Chris Johnson had TWO short-yardage scores and is a more productive runner. Plus, the Tennessee Titans are playing the Baltimore Ravens (69 rushing yards a game, zero rush TDs allowed) this week.

Start Trent Edwards. Looking for someone to hold down the fort while Favre is on a bye this week? Edwards has thrown a touchdown every game this year and faces the Arizona Cardinals, who were just gashed by Favre last week.

Sit David Garrard. Everyone’s favorite QB sleeper (well, almost everyone) still hasn’t awakened (two TDs in four games). Now he faces the Pittsburgh Steelers – third in the NFL in pass defense, three TDs allowed, six INTs.

Start Joseph Addai. He’s got four TDs in four career games against the Houston Texans, who’ve given up seven rushing TDs already this year. You do the math.

Sit Felix Jones. The matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals sure seems tempting, but when a rookie running back gets zero carries the week before and is completely healthy (as far as we know), I can’t start him in good conscience the following Sunday.

An early football top 10

Never too early to start thinking about next season, right?

Here's a peek at the top 10 names on my football board for 2008. Remember, all predictions are subject to change, but here's how I've got them slotted right now:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson: Even in a "down" year, he led the league in rushing. Not too shabby.

2. Brian Westbrook: Versatile little guy never disappoints but always seems to get disrespected on draft day. Not by me, though.

3. Adrian Peterson: Rookie put to rest injury/timeshare worries with an awesome year. Late-season tailspin is a concern, but upside is too good to ignore.

4. Joseph Addai: A workhorse back with young legs and a nose for the end zone? I'll take it.

5. Tom Brady: Amazing '07 pushes him way up the draft board, and with good reason. But I'd bet the Pats reassess their running game this offseason, meaning Brady's numbers will dip slightly.

6. Steven Jackson: Here's hoping the Rams improve their offensive line in '08. Maybe then Jackson will have the kind of season he was supposed to this year.

7. Peyton Manning: Old reliable gets slotted behind Brady for the first time. But he's still as steady as they come.

8. Frank Gore: With Mike Martz taking over the 49ers' offense, a healthy Gore could approach Marshall Faulk territory if everything falls into place.

9. Randy Moss: He's found a comfort zone with Brady and the Pats. Twenty-three TDs will be hard to touch, but he'll try.

10. Tony Romo: I don't think he'll be going on vacation anytime soon. Big things will be expected in Big D next year.