Week 3 Start 'Em: McFadden, Moss, Favre

RB DARREN McFADDEN at Arizona: It’s time to take this guy seriously again after 145 rushing yards on 30 carries last week against St. Louis. He’s the NFL’s second-leading rusher, and the this week's opponents, the Cardinals, are second-worst against the run (153.0 a game).

WR SANTANA MOSS at St. Louis: The veteran has hit it off with new QB Donovan McNabb, catching 16 passes so far. The Redskins will look to pound the ball against a soft Rams run defense, but I still see Moss doing some damage through the air.

BRETT FAVRE vs. Detroit: Favre’s thrown 51 TDs in 30 career games against the Lions. Only his own Vikings (52 TDs) and the Bears (53 TDs) have been victimized more by the man that Father Time forgot. It’s been a rough 2010 for Brett, but he returns to form this week against the Lions.


Last week’s picks

- Ahmad Bradshaw had a commendable 89 yards on 17 carries against the Colts. Not exactly Arian Foster-level production, but solid, and the good news for Bradshaw’s long-term value is teammate Brandon Jacobs carried the ball only four times and suffered a helmet-tossing, possibly trade-demanding meltdown.

- Dwayne Bowe’s 4 catches for 45 yards against the Browns weren’t quite what I had in mind but are a step in the right direction.

- Dez Bryant recorded only 2 catches against Chicago, but he made them count (52 yards) and he added a 62-yard punt return for a TD to boot.

Photo by The Associated Press

Week 2 Recap, Part II: Bucs worth owning

-Is Josh Freeman a fantasy star? Not yet, but he and WR Mike Williams (2 TDs in first two games) are on their way. Williams has to be owned at this point, and Freeman might be a darkhorse No. 2 QB worth a spot start somewhere down the road. He's got some mouth-watering matchups with St. Louis and Arizona during bye-week time.

-Only six QBs have thrown for more than 600 yards so far this season. The first five? Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub. Ho hum. No. 6? Kyle Orton, who’s also got 3 TDs to 1 INT. Unfortunately, he’s about to run a gauntlet of Indy, Tennessee, Baltimore and the Jets in the next four weeks.

-Only two catches for Rams WR Mark Clayton, one of last week’s Hot Pickups, but both of them went for TDs. Clayton had only one other two-TD game in his career, back in 2006 with the Ravens.

-Rookie TE Aaron Hernandez (6 catches, 101 yards, TD) continues to be a big-play threat for the Patriots. The Florida product had a 45-yard catch in Week 1 and a 46-yarder in Week 2 vs. the Jets. How about a 47-yarder this week against Buffalo?

-It’s been a rocky road for rookie RB Ryan Matthews of San Diego – 25 carries for 104 yards (4.2 average) but also 2 fumbles and 1 protective boot after Sunday’s ankle injury. Mike Tolbert stepped in to carry the ball 16 times for 82 yards and 2 TDs against the Jags in Week 2 and figures to hurt Matthews’ value even more, at least in the short term.

-Arian Foster goes from 231 yards rushing in Week 1 to 69 in Week 2. Matt Schaub goes from 107 yards passing in Week 1 to 497 in Week 2. What’s the real deal for these two Texans? Probably somewhere in the middle.

-Brandon Jacobs owners would like to toss their helmets or demand a trade too after their guy’s performance (4 attempts, 8 yards) against the Colts. He’s clearly benchable this week against Tennessee and until further notice.

-I’m loving what I’m seeing out of how the Saints are using Pierre Thomas so far. He touched the ball 26 total times on Monday night, and with Reggie Bush gone for the next six weeks with a broken fibula, Thomas should have even more opportunities.


Photo by The Associated Press

Week 2 Start 'Em: Bradshaw, Bowe, Bryant

- RB AHMAD BRADSHAW at Indianapolis: Bradshaw looked like the best runner in the Giants’ backfield Sunday, rushing 20 times for 76 yards and a TD while Brandon Jacobs mustered just 44 yards on 12 carries. Now Bradshaw gets to face a reeling Colts D that was terrorized by Arian Foster in Week 1.

- WR DWAYNE BOWE at Cleveland: His season debut was forgettable (1 catch, 14 yards), and though he was targeted only five times, that led all Chiefs receivers on what was a rainy Monday night. Bowe is still a dangerous WR1 and K.C.'s best option, and this matchup should help him prove it.

- WR DEZ BRYANT vs. Chicago: The rookie was targeted a team-high 12 times by QB Tony Romo in Week 1. Just so we're clear, that's more than Miles Austin and more than Jason Witten. There's a good chance these boys will tear up Chicago, which makes Bryant a pretty good WR2 or Flex option.

Derrick Ward sent packing

Hope you didn't draft Derrick Ward this year.

At least not if you figured he'd be a factor with the Tampa Bay Bucs, who cut Ward on Tuesday, one year after signing him to a four-year, $17.5 million contract. It's also two years after he rushed for more than 1,000 yards with the New York Giants.

The writing was on the wall for Ward, who failed to impress last year or this preseason and whose release will only cost the Bucs about $3 million this year. He was outplayed in 2010 by Kareem Huggins, a 24-year-old Hofstra product who didn't get a carry last year as a rookie with the Bucs but who should be Cadillac Williams' backup on Week 1. And if you know anything about Caddy's injury history, you know that Huggins is just a snapped tendon away from being Tampa Bay's starting tailback. Both Williams and Huggins should be moved up on your draft board accordingly.

As for Ward, I suppose he's still worth keeping tabs on, depending on where he ends up, as the season progresses. Granted, he's 30 and came to Bucs camp out of shape ... but Ward doesn't have a lot of mileage on him for a back his age after spending much of his career as a practice-squad player/third-stringer. He proved what he can do as a change-of-pace back when paired with Brandon Jacobs in '07. I could see him being a fantasy factor later this season if he lands in the right situation, but for now he's not worth a roster spot in all but the deepest of leagues.

Photo by The Associated Press

2010 RB Rankings

2010 RUNNING BACK RANKINGS


This year's top four are more or less no-brainers for me, but then you'll spot a few surprises. I have Frank Gore of the run-heavy 49ers, the rejuvenated Michael Turner and the always dangerous Steven Jackson in the next tier of runners. I do have my annual concerns about S-Jax, who still has a weak supporting cast around him.

Next up are a few feature backs I expect to see a ton of carries, Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Grant, and a surprise at No. 10, Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs. The breakout star of the second half of 2009 is going a lot later than many of the other backs on this list. but I believe he has the talent to produce like a top-10 RB.

I have Arian Foster ranked higher than many other experts, but with the season-ending injury to Ben Tate and the Texans' glaring need for a feature back, I think the rookie has a real opportunity in 2010.

You may also be surprised to see Michael Bush ahead of Reggie Bush, and I don't know if that says more about how much I like Michael or how much I dislike Reggie this year. Either way, I think they're best suited to be No. 4 fantasy backs in most leagues. Move Reggie up a bit in PPR leagues, of course.

I'm pretty high on Ahmad Bradshaw this year because I like his talent, I believe he's healthy, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him outperform Brandon Jacobs this year for the Giants.

I don't believe the Cardinals will be stubborn enough to favor Tim Hightower over Beanie Wells for the majority of 2010, and I've ranked the two players accordingly.

Looking for a deep, deep sleeper? The camp reports haven't been great and he's battling a shoulder injury, but I'm a fan of Steelers rookie Jonathan Dwyer. It might take him a year, but I think he can evolve into a good goal-line back. Stay tuned.

1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Ray Rice
5. Frank Gore
6. Michael Turner
7. Steven Jackson
8. Rashard Mendenhall
9. Ryan Grant
10. Jamaal Charles
11. Cedric Benson
12. DeAngelo Williams
13. Ryan Matthews
14. Shonn Greene
15. Beanie Wells
16. Knowshon Moreno
17. Pierre Thomas
18. Jonathan Stewart
19. Felix Jones
20. Ronnie Brown
21. LeSean McCoy
22. Joseph Addai
23. Arian Foster
24. Brandon Jacobs
25. Justin Forsett
26. Matt Forte
27. Ricky Williams
28. Jahvid Best
29. C.J. Spiller
30. Marion Barber
31. Ahmad Bradshaw
32. Jerome Harrison
33. Clinton Portis
34. Michael Bush
35. Reggie Bush
36. Donald Brown
37. Fred Jackson
38. Cadillac Williams
39. Thomas Jones
40. LaDainian Tomlinson
41. Darren Sproles
42. Darren McFadden
43. Montario Hardesty
44. Tim Hightower
45. Steve Slaton
46. Chester Taylor
47. Laurence Maroney
48. Willis McGahee
49. Correll Buckhalter
50. Kevin Smith
51. Anthony Dixon
52. Mike Bell
53. Fred Taylor
54. Rashad Jennings
55. Toby Gerhart
56. Larry Johnson
57. Tashard Choice
58. Bernard Scott
59. Leon Washington
60. Jonathan Dwyer

Grading my 2009 sleepers

RB JAMES DAVIS, BROWNS

I pegged Davis as a breakout player in the case of Jamal Lewis' eventual demise as a feature back. Turns out I was half right. Lewis did break down, but by that time, Davis had already suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. That left room for James Harrison to step in and get all the glory, but I still believe without the shoulder injury, that could have been Davis. So I'm giving myself a bit of a mulligan. GRADE: C-


RB LeSEAN McCOY, EAGLES

I thought Shady would have a bit more of an impact this year, especially with Brian Westbrook on the shelf so long. He did run for 3 TDs and had a few useful fantasy performances, but he also never topped 100 yards in a game and had quite a few stinkers mixed in. He does have a bright future in the league, especially with Westbrook's long-term health in question, but McCoy wasn't totally ready for prime time in 2009. GRADE: C+


RB JAMAAL CHARLES, CHIEFS

I've been pretty high on Charles for quite a while and was biding my time for Larry Johnson to lose his grip on the starting job in K.C. He did, and Charles was masterful in LJ's place. He topped 1,000 rushing yards despite appearing in only 10 games and not getting double-digit carries until taking over as the starter in mid-November. I'm giving myself major props for this one. GRADE: A+


RB AHMAD BRADSHAW, GIANTS

Bradshaw didn't have near the type of season I thought he would, but that could also be said for teammate Brandon Jacobs or the Giants in general. Bradshaw did have a couple outstanding games early in the season (104 yards vs. Tampa Bay, 110 yards and 2 TDs vs. Oakland) but never really evolved from being a marginal flex player or No. 3 back. Still, he was solid. GRADE: B


QB KYLE ORTON, BRONCOS

Orton was never very flashy - he had just one 3-TD game, in Week 16 against Philly, and topped 300 yards passing just twice - but he was never as bad as some expected, either (only two 3-INT games). I pegged him as a dependable No. 2 and ranked him 15th among fantasy QBs, and he actually slightly exceeded those expectations, finishing 14th in standard scoring ESPN leagues, above bigger names such as Carson Palmer, David Garrard, Joe Flacco, Jason Campbell, Matt Hasselbeck and Matt Ryan. GRADE: A


RB DONALD BROWN, COLTS

This one really hurt, because I thought the rookie was poised for a big breakout. He didn't get as much work as I hoped, but he wasn't extremely effective when he did (3.6 yards a carry), and he also missed several games with injury. He's still got a lot of potential and could very well overtake Joseph Addai as the Colts' lead back next year, but for now this sleeper's still dozing. GRADE: D

Sit 'Em: Week 14

- RB BEANIE WELLS at San Francisco: The rookie's had a rough two weeks - he hasn't reached 30 yards on the ground in the past two games - and the Niners own a top-5 rush defense. Beanie's benched this week (but I'm licking my chops over the next two matchups with Detroit and St. Louis).

- WR STEVE BREASTON at San Francisco: I just can't trust him after last week's 1-catch disaster. He's always been worth a look as a flex player when he's hot, but he's ice cold right now.

- WR SANTANA MOSS at Oakland: He hasn't given us much to get excited about this year (only 1 game with more than 75 receiving yards), and he'll likely be blanketed by Pro Bowl corner Nnamdi Asomugha on Sunday. No thanks.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Not only did Kurt Warner suit up despite recent concussion troubles, but he aired it out for 285 yards and 3 TDs in the Cardinals' surprising thrashing of the previously once-beaten Vikings. Couldn't have been more wrong.

- Brandon Jacobs was bottled up for 39 rushing yards on 13 carries as I expected. Only problem is he ran for a TD and scored another on a 74-yard catch on a screen pass nobody - including the Cowboys defense - expected. Wrong again.

- Willis McGahee vultured another TD to complete a trifecta of wrongness. He also had 4 carries for -4 yards.

Sit 'Em: Week 13

- QB KURT WARNER vs. Minnesota: The Cardinals are being cautious with their QB's concussion, and rightfully so. There's no need for them to play him, and even if they do, the Vikings defense could cause him even more headaches. It's not worth the risk, especially if he ends up being a late scratch again this week.

- RB BRANDON JACOBS vs. Dallas: There are a number of reasons not to like him this week - he hasn't topped 80 yards in a game since Week 8, he's scored only 3 times this year, and Dallas held him to 58 yards and no TDs in their first meeting. Plus, in the past, Jacobs has been at his best when he's used in tandem with another back, but second-stringer Ahmad Bradshaw has a bum ankle and third-stringer DJ Ware won't play. You're probably stuck with Jacobs as your No. 2 back regardless, but don't expect too much out of him.

- RB WILLIS McGAHEE at Green Bay: McGahee's had double-digit carries only one time since Week 2, and he's scored only once since Week 4 (although that TD happened to come last week). He's not getting enough reps to warrant a start, especially against the Packers' fourth-ranked rush defense.

LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Michael Turner tried to make a go of it Sunday, but he managed just 33 yards on 12 carries before his ankle sprain gave out on him.

- Bernard Berrian made 6 catches for 74 yards but continued his streak of not scoring every other week like I mentioned.

- Austin Collie had 4 catches for 70 yards. Decent.

Week 5 recap

- Turns out Hot Pickup Jerome Harrison (8 rushes for 21 yards) was just a mirage. Jamal Lewis carried the rock 31 times for 117 yards for the Browns and apparently is their No. 1 option. And hold off on Mohamed Massaquoi's coronation as a fantasy starter after his 1-catch effort in Cleveland's field goal-fest with the Bills.

- Rashard Mendenhall (15 carries, 77 yards, TD) continues to make his case for a big chunk of the carries for the Steelers after Willie Parker returns from injury, which could happen next week.

- Tony Romo salvaged what could have been a disaster against K.C. thanks to a TD pass very late in the fourth quarter and another in overtime. Most of the credit goes to Miles Austin (10 catches, 250 yards, 2 TDs), who may have jumped up the Cowboys' depth chart while ineffective Roy Williams was on the shelf.

-Is Larry Johnson (21 carries, 37 yards, 1.8 average) anything more than a fantasy bench player at this point?

- Brandon Jacobs owners have to be steaming after watching Ahmad Bradshaw plow his way to two TDs against Oakland, when their guy has only one rushing TD on the year. But Jacobs had two cracks down near the goal-line before the Giants subbed in Bradshaw for his first TD. Regardless, they're both still looking like good week-to-week options.

- Jeremy Maclin's skills (6 catches, 142 yards, 2 TDs) were finally unleashed in Philly on a day when teammate DeSean Jackson managed just 1 catch for 1 yard. We might see a similar story next week if Oakland's Nnamdi Asomugha is blanketing Jackson and Maclin is free to roam.

- That's the Roddy White (8 catches, 210 yards, 2 TDs) we drafted.

- Thanks for nothing, Mike Sims-Walker (inactive - violation of teams rule).

When stars refuse to shine

I know a bunch of people are bummed by their first- or second-round pick's performance in Week 1. I'm talking about guys like:

Chris Johnson (57 yards, 0 TDs)

Michael Turner (65 yards, 0 TDs)

Matt Forte (55 yards, 0 TDs)

Steve Smith (21 yards, 0 TDs)

Andre Johnson (35 yards, 0 TDs)

Steve Slaton (17 yards, 0 TDs)

Clinton Portis (62 yards, 0 TDs)

Brandon Jacobs (46 yards, 0 TDs)

Anquan Boldin (19 yards, 0 TDs)

and

Steven Jackson (67 yards, 0 TDs)

Those performances were all tough to swallow. But one of the worst mistakes you can make is to overreact to one game. There were reasons for all of those disappointments , from tough matchups (C. Johnson vs. Pittsburgh, Portis vs. the Giants, Slaton and A. Johnson vs. the Jets) to lingering injuries (Boldin) to poor offensive gameplans (Forte) to awful QB play (Smith). But you were willing to spend a high pick and build your team around all of those guys a week ago, so there's no need to go flipping out and totally writing off the season. All of those players are still studs and will serve you well in the weeks ahead.

8/29 Sleeper of the Day: Ahmad Bradshaw

RB AHMAD BRADSHAW, NEW YORK GIANTS



Bradshaw brought the fire to the Giants' "Earth, Wind & Fire" running back trio of the past few years, providing a change of pace behind Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward. Now, with Ward in Tampa Bay, Bradhsaw should see an expanded role as Jacobs' primary backup.

The 5-foot-9, 198-pound Bradshaw is a violent and elusive runner with a low center of gravity and the speed to break off long runs. As No. 2 on New York's tailback depth chart, ahead of Danny Ware, Bradshaw is more than just a Jacobs handcuff - Ward rushed for more than 1,000 yards last year in the same capacity, and the Giants could be even more run-oriented in 2009 behind a veteran offensive line that returns intact and without Plaxico Burress as a receiving option. I have Bradshaw slotted 30th in my latest RB rankings, which makes him your top target as a No. 3 back and one of the top backups in the league.

Game-planning for Week 17? Good luck

Week 17 of the NFL season is probably the trickiest one to predict from a fantasy standpoint.

You’ve got a handful of teams that already have their playoff positioning locked in. Will they opt to rest their key starters? We saw how that strategy backfired on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year. So do teams instead go the New York Giants’ route and give 100 percent in a “meaningless” finale? The Giants players credited their Week 17 loss to the New England Patriots last year as a catalyst for their Super Bowl run.

NFL coaches face some serious conundrums when it comes to resting starters who are nursing injuries and risking their teams losing momentum or getting out of synch come playoff time. And then there are the non-playoff teams: Are they motivated to play spoiler or end the season on a high note, or have they already mentally packed their bags for some sunny offseason locale?

It’s an interesting dilemma, and it makes for some difficult roster calls. Here’s some advice for those whose fantasy teams are still alive this week:

g The Arizona Cardinals clinched a playoff spot weeks ago, but I’d still expect to see at least a few quarters out of Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and the still-healing Anquan Boldin against Seattle. Those three need to get their aerial act together if they want to avoid getting bounced in the first round, so count on them seeing significant time against a bad Seahawks defense coming off an emotional win with little left to play for.

g I’m avoiding Marion Barber and his toe troubles this week unless I have no other choice — and that includes Dallas Cowboys rookie backup Tashard Choice, who’s run for 88, 91 and 90 yards against three of the league’s toughest run defenses the past three weeks.

g Use caution if you’re starting any Indianapolis Colts or Tennessee Titans, as both of those teams already have their playoff spots locked in. A quarter or two of Peyton Manning is probably too good to pass up, but I’d be a little hesitant about starting anyone else in that game.

g Start all your noteworthy San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos in what will be a win-or-go-home, defensively challenged shootout: Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, LaDainian Tomlinson, Vincent Jackson, Darren Sproles, Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Tony Scheffler and Eddie Royal. Just bench Broncos RB Tatum Bell — the position’s cursed this year.

g The New Orleans Saints are out of it, but Drew Brees is only 402 yards shy of Dan Marino’s single-season passing record. Brees, Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Pierre Thomas are worth starting, even against the Carolina Panthers, whose playoff positioning has yet to be determined.

g If the Detroit Lions want to avoid an 0-16 season (let’s assume they do) they would be wise to utilize running back Kevin Smith against Green Bay. The rookie matched his single-season high for carries (24) last week and had his second-best rushing total (112) along with a TD. With enough work he could match those numbers against the Packers’ so-so run D.

g If last week taught us anything, it’s to start your New England Patriots no matter what the weather forecast looks like. QB Matt Cassel was simply awesome in the snow, and with a playoff spot still a possibility I expect he and the Pats’ passing game will crush the Buffalo Bills.

g This sounds crazy after the Giants just rushed for 301 yards, but you may want to avoid all of Big Blue’s running backs this week. New York has nothing to play for against the Minnesota Vikings, so they could opt to rest Brandon Jacobs and his ailing knee — which limits Derrick Ward’s threat as a change-of-pace back. Ahmad Bradshaw might end up seeing the most touches, but he faces a stout run defense and a team that still hasn’t clinched a playoff spot.

What's up with Brandon Jacobs?

Anybody get burned by Brandon Jacobs being on the bench Sunday?

We knew he had a slight tear in his MCL but was probable for the Giants' game against the Cardinals. With that being a late game, the matter was complicated even further, but all indications early in the day were Jacobs would be active.

Then, about an hour before kickoff comes word that he won't play.

Bummer.

Even the Cardinals weren't happy with the way the situation was handled, and they sent an informal protest to the NFL. Those fantasy players who started Jacobs probably would like to do the same thing.

The word is this was just a precaution, and that Jacobs will probably suit up next week against the Redskins, although he's calling himself "day to day." For those who've rode the big guy (879 yards, 11 TDs) so far, he can't be back soon enough. In the meantime, backup Derrick Ward (99 yards from scrimmage, one TD on Sunday) is a valuable commodity who at the very least is a good flex option or No. 2 or No. 3 RB.

While we're on the topic of Giants injuries, New York also lost WR Plaxico Burress early in the game when he aggravated a hamstring injury. Hopefully you're not relying on Burress as your No. 1 WR at this point since he's lost some of last year's magic. He's still always a TD threat, but the Giants' offense is so varied and opposing defenses are so focused on Plax that he's a No. 2 at best, plus you'll have to monitor his practices as always.