Derrick Ward sent packing

Hope you didn't draft Derrick Ward this year.

At least not if you figured he'd be a factor with the Tampa Bay Bucs, who cut Ward on Tuesday, one year after signing him to a four-year, $17.5 million contract. It's also two years after he rushed for more than 1,000 yards with the New York Giants.

The writing was on the wall for Ward, who failed to impress last year or this preseason and whose release will only cost the Bucs about $3 million this year. He was outplayed in 2010 by Kareem Huggins, a 24-year-old Hofstra product who didn't get a carry last year as a rookie with the Bucs but who should be Cadillac Williams' backup on Week 1. And if you know anything about Caddy's injury history, you know that Huggins is just a snapped tendon away from being Tampa Bay's starting tailback. Both Williams and Huggins should be moved up on your draft board accordingly.

As for Ward, I suppose he's still worth keeping tabs on, depending on where he ends up, as the season progresses. Granted, he's 30 and came to Bucs camp out of shape ... but Ward doesn't have a lot of mileage on him for a back his age after spending much of his career as a practice-squad player/third-stringer. He proved what he can do as a change-of-pace back when paired with Brandon Jacobs in '07. I could see him being a fantasy factor later this season if he lands in the right situation, but for now he's not worth a roster spot in all but the deepest of leagues.

Photo by The Associated Press

Breaking down the Bucs' backfield

There was a lot of preseason discussion about how the Bucs would divy up the carries among their running backs. New coach Raheem Morris eventually announced he'd be primarily using a "2-2-1" rotation, giving Cadillac Williams (remember him?) the first two series, free-agent signee Derrick Ward the next two and then holdover Earnest Graham a series.

That's more or less how it played out Sunday against Dallas. Cadillac was the most effective runner (13 carries, 97 yards, TD) and is looking about as good as he ever has after years of injuries. Caddy alternated with Ward (12 carries, 62 yards, TD), the popular pick among fantasy drafters. But surprisingly, Earnest Graham was a non-factor (1 carry, 1 yard). In fact, he didn't even want the ball when his coach offered to get him in the game. Unselfish, or just strange? I'll let you be the judge.

Cadillac has to be picked up off the waiver wire this week, even though there's a decent chance his weary legs won't last 16 games. I stil believe Ward will end up being the most valuable Bucs running back by season's end. And Graham obviously belongs on your bench until further notice.

Three teams I'm trying to avoid

Call me crazy, but an NFL team firing its offensive coordinator less than two weeks before the start of the regular season usually isn't a formula for offensive excellence. That's why I'm trying to avoid most players from these three franchises:

CHIEFS

Of all three of these revamped/reworked/rebuilt offenses I'm talking about, the Chiefs were perhaps the most intriguing. Even though now-departed Chan Gailey was a holdover from the previous (unsuccessful) coaching regime, new K.C. head man Todd Haley is the mastermind behind the Cardinals' electrifying offense from a year ago. The firing of Gailey might not make a huge difference, but there were already warning signs about this offense: the poor offensive line play of the past few years, the decline of Larry Johnson and his various issues, the departure of Tony Gonzalez and the preseason injury suffered by new QB Matt Cassel. The combination of all red flags makes K.C.'s playmakers a little less desirable than they seemed during the offseason. WR Dwayne Bowe and Cassel should probably drop out of the preseason top 10 at their respective positions, and I don't trust LJ as anything more than a No. 3 RB at best. Still like Jamaal Charles as a deep sleeper though.

BUCS

The firing of OC Jeff Jagodzinski kind of came out of left field. Remember when the guy was a big NFL head coaching prospect? Well whatever, I guess being faced with the prospect of Byron Leftwich or Luke McCown as his starting QB, he was probably set up to fail anyway. McCown was traded to Jacksonville over the weekend, and Leftwich is officially the Bucs' Week 1 starter now, which shouldn't excite you much. It doesn't bode well for Antonio Bryant or Kellen Winslow either, so bump them down a peg from wherever they would be with a better QB at the helm. The Bucs do have a promising offensive line and should be able to to run the ball; the problem is they have three decent RBs to share the load, which means you have to be a bit skeptical of Derrick Ward, Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams until we see their roles.

BILLS

Buffalo's Turk Schonert is another assistant coach who never even got to start the season in his new position. He's blasting head coach Dick Jauron because the offensive playcalling "wasn't simple enough." A little imagination might not hurt after the Bills have been so ineffective on offense the past few years. Terrell Owens certainly livens things up a bit, but I'm proceeding with caution and treating him like a No. 2 fantasy receiver. Trent Edwards is no Tony Romo (or Donovan McNabb or Jeff Garcia) at this point and has a long way to go before he's anything more than a low-end fantasy backup. Lee Evans is tantalizing as always but seems perpetually bound to disappoint no matter what you expect out of him. And it's tough to take a chance on either Marshawn Lynch or Fred Jackson when you know there will be a major shakeup in their roles once Lynch serves his season-opening four-game suspension.

8/29 Sleeper of the Day: Ahmad Bradshaw

RB AHMAD BRADSHAW, NEW YORK GIANTS



Bradshaw brought the fire to the Giants' "Earth, Wind & Fire" running back trio of the past few years, providing a change of pace behind Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward. Now, with Ward in Tampa Bay, Bradhsaw should see an expanded role as Jacobs' primary backup.

The 5-foot-9, 198-pound Bradshaw is a violent and elusive runner with a low center of gravity and the speed to break off long runs. As No. 2 on New York's tailback depth chart, ahead of Danny Ware, Bradshaw is more than just a Jacobs handcuff - Ward rushed for more than 1,000 yards last year in the same capacity, and the Giants could be even more run-oriented in 2009 behind a veteran offensive line that returns intact and without Plaxico Burress as a receiving option. I have Bradshaw slotted 30th in my latest RB rankings, which makes him your top target as a No. 3 back and one of the top backups in the league.

Game-planning for Week 17? Good luck

Week 17 of the NFL season is probably the trickiest one to predict from a fantasy standpoint.

You’ve got a handful of teams that already have their playoff positioning locked in. Will they opt to rest their key starters? We saw how that strategy backfired on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year. So do teams instead go the New York Giants’ route and give 100 percent in a “meaningless” finale? The Giants players credited their Week 17 loss to the New England Patriots last year as a catalyst for their Super Bowl run.

NFL coaches face some serious conundrums when it comes to resting starters who are nursing injuries and risking their teams losing momentum or getting out of synch come playoff time. And then there are the non-playoff teams: Are they motivated to play spoiler or end the season on a high note, or have they already mentally packed their bags for some sunny offseason locale?

It’s an interesting dilemma, and it makes for some difficult roster calls. Here’s some advice for those whose fantasy teams are still alive this week:

g The Arizona Cardinals clinched a playoff spot weeks ago, but I’d still expect to see at least a few quarters out of Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and the still-healing Anquan Boldin against Seattle. Those three need to get their aerial act together if they want to avoid getting bounced in the first round, so count on them seeing significant time against a bad Seahawks defense coming off an emotional win with little left to play for.

g I’m avoiding Marion Barber and his toe troubles this week unless I have no other choice — and that includes Dallas Cowboys rookie backup Tashard Choice, who’s run for 88, 91 and 90 yards against three of the league’s toughest run defenses the past three weeks.

g Use caution if you’re starting any Indianapolis Colts or Tennessee Titans, as both of those teams already have their playoff spots locked in. A quarter or two of Peyton Manning is probably too good to pass up, but I’d be a little hesitant about starting anyone else in that game.

g Start all your noteworthy San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos in what will be a win-or-go-home, defensively challenged shootout: Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, LaDainian Tomlinson, Vincent Jackson, Darren Sproles, Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Tony Scheffler and Eddie Royal. Just bench Broncos RB Tatum Bell — the position’s cursed this year.

g The New Orleans Saints are out of it, but Drew Brees is only 402 yards shy of Dan Marino’s single-season passing record. Brees, Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Pierre Thomas are worth starting, even against the Carolina Panthers, whose playoff positioning has yet to be determined.

g If the Detroit Lions want to avoid an 0-16 season (let’s assume they do) they would be wise to utilize running back Kevin Smith against Green Bay. The rookie matched his single-season high for carries (24) last week and had his second-best rushing total (112) along with a TD. With enough work he could match those numbers against the Packers’ so-so run D.

g If last week taught us anything, it’s to start your New England Patriots no matter what the weather forecast looks like. QB Matt Cassel was simply awesome in the snow, and with a playoff spot still a possibility I expect he and the Pats’ passing game will crush the Buffalo Bills.

g This sounds crazy after the Giants just rushed for 301 yards, but you may want to avoid all of Big Blue’s running backs this week. New York has nothing to play for against the Minnesota Vikings, so they could opt to rest Brandon Jacobs and his ailing knee — which limits Derrick Ward’s threat as a change-of-pace back. Ahmad Bradshaw might end up seeing the most touches, but he faces a stout run defense and a team that still hasn’t clinched a playoff spot.

Week 15: Who to start, sit in playoffs

So you’re in the playoffs.

Congratulations. Would you like a medal?

Fact is, making the fantasy football postseason is a nice accomplishment, but this is no time to rest on your laurels and pat yourself on the back. There’s more work to be done and tough decisions to make before you can call yourself a champ.

Here’s some advice to help you keep this thing rolling:

START ’EM


g RB Dominic Rhodes vs. Detroit: Sure, Joseph Addai is the Indianapolis Colts’ “starter,” but he’s a bit banged-up, and Rhodes has seen an increased workload the past few weeks. Plus, he’s playing the Lions, who let another “backup,” Chester Taylor, have a nice day last week.

g RB Derrick Ward at Dallas: Brandon Jacobs says he’ll play despite a sore knee, but I could see the New York Giants giving Ward lots of touches to help keep the big guy fresh for the postseason.

g RB Sammy Morris at Oakland: He’s back in the mix as the New England Patriots’ top tailback, so you can assume at least 10 touches and perhaps a score like the past two weeks.

g RB Steve Slaton vs. Tennessee: Don’t let the Titans’ run defense scare you from using a kid who’s rushed for 479 yards and three TDs in his past four games. Oh, and he had 116 yards and a TD the first time his Houston Texans played the Colts this year.

g QB Tyler Thigpen vs. San Diego: After a so-so effort last week at Denver (187 yards, TD), raise your expectations against a pretty bad Chargers pass defense.

g QB Donovan McNabb vs. Cleveland: He’s elevated his game since his competence and brainpower were called into question a few weeks ago. Expect him to light up a Browns team in disarray.

g WR Reggie Williams vs. Green Bay: The Jacksonville Jaguars receiver is at least a No. 3 receiver this week given Matt Jones’ suspension and the Packers’ general ineptitude the past few weeks.

g WR Devin Hester vs. New Orleans: The Chicago Bears’ most dangerous weapon could break off a few big plays against a Saints’ D that’s given up 20 receiving TDs.

g WR Brandon Marshall at Carolina: The Denver Broncos are running out of running backs, so they might opt to throw it a lot against a secondary that’s been torched to the tune of 274, 293 and 298 yards the past three weeks.

SIT ’EM

g RB Steven Jackson vs. Seattle: I understand starting him if you don’t have a better option, but Jackson should no longer be treated like a No. 1 fantasy back. His lack of involvement in the passing game and his so-so rushing totals have been killing teams lately.

g RB Willie Parker at Baltimore: I don’t like the timeshare situation unfolding with Pittsburgh Steelers teammate Mewelde Moore, and I certainly don’t like the matchup.

g RB Larry Johnson vs. San Diego: After a poor effort last week at Denver (11 carries, 36 yards), lower your expectations against a pretty good run-stopping Chargers defense.

g RB Tashard Choice vs. New York Giants: The Dallas Cowboys rookie will be a popular pickup this week after what he did against a tough Pittsburgh Steelers run defense (88 rushing yards, 78 receiving yards). But if Marion Barber can go and wants to shut Jerry Jones up, Choice returns to relative obscurity.

g QB Matt Schaub vs. Tennessee: Don’t overreact to last week’s air raid on Green Bay. Schaub was terrible against the Titans in Week 3 (188 yards, zero TDs, three interceptions) and isn’t worth the risk this week.

g QB Ben Roethlisberger at Baltimore: If your idea of a good fantasy outing for your QB is about 200 yards and maybe a TD, Big Ben is your guy this week. If you have another QB on your roster who’s capable of more, plant Roethlisberger on your bench for this slugfest.

g WR Laveranues Coles vs. Buffalo: The veteran has combined for three catches and seven yards in his past two games. Do you dare start him this week?

g WR Domenik Hixon at Dallas: Forget about last week’s costly drop, as bad as it looked. It was unfair to expect the guy to just step in and replace Plaxico Burress, and he’s been too inconsistent to warrant a start at this point.

g WR Chris Chambers at Kansas City: He’s been an afterthought in the San Diego Chargers’ offense lately, with just one catch in the past two weeks. Sure, the matchup is good this Sunday, but you can do better.

What's up with Brandon Jacobs?

Anybody get burned by Brandon Jacobs being on the bench Sunday?

We knew he had a slight tear in his MCL but was probable for the Giants' game against the Cardinals. With that being a late game, the matter was complicated even further, but all indications early in the day were Jacobs would be active.

Then, about an hour before kickoff comes word that he won't play.

Bummer.

Even the Cardinals weren't happy with the way the situation was handled, and they sent an informal protest to the NFL. Those fantasy players who started Jacobs probably would like to do the same thing.

The word is this was just a precaution, and that Jacobs will probably suit up next week against the Redskins, although he's calling himself "day to day." For those who've rode the big guy (879 yards, 11 TDs) so far, he can't be back soon enough. In the meantime, backup Derrick Ward (99 yards from scrimmage, one TD on Sunday) is a valuable commodity who at the very least is a good flex option or No. 2 or No. 3 RB.

While we're on the topic of Giants injuries, New York also lost WR Plaxico Burress early in the game when he aggravated a hamstring injury. Hopefully you're not relying on Burress as your No. 1 WR at this point since he's lost some of last year's magic. He's still always a TD threat, but the Giants' offense is so varied and opposing defenses are so focused on Plax that he's a No. 2 at best, plus you'll have to monitor his practices as always.