8/27 Bust of the Day: Chad Ochocinco

I'm torn over everybody's favorite reality star. On one hand, it's almost hard to take him seriously as a football player because of all the Twittering and self-promoting off the field and silliness on it. He's also 32 years old and appears to be past his prime, when he was catching 90-plus passes a year with regularity.

On the other hand, Ocho did have 72 receptions, 1,047 yards and 9 TDs in 2009, numbers that are nothing to sniff at and which represented a bounce-back year for him. The flip side is that 2008 was a real clunker - 53 catches, 540 yards (10.2 yards a reception) and  just 4 TDs.

So what can we expect this year? Ocho's still the Bengals' No. 1 option, but his supporting cast is much improved with the additions of Terrell Owens, Antonio Bryant and rookie Jordan Shipley. Can QB Carson Palmer keep them all happy? Will Palmer's arm hold up all year? Or will Cincinnati lean on workhorse back Cedric Benson?

My gut tells me Ochocinco still has some life left in him, his rapport with Palmer will still be there, and the addition of T.O., while a potential headache-inducer, will also loosen up some coverages. I think he'll have fantasy value. But I believe people will overpay for him on draft day because of his name and past reputation alone. He's being selected, on average, as the 15th WR off the board in ESPN leagues right now, which sounds OK, but I wouldn't go any higher than that. I could see younger wideouts like Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace, Pierre Garcon or Michael Crabtree outperforming him, or at least equaling his best-case-scenario stats, while coming at a lower price.

Ochocinco's a low-end No. 2 for me, and a risky one at that.

T.O. to Bengals; should you care?

Remember this?



And this?



And this?



Of course you do. That's the reason there's so much attention on the Bengals signing a 36-year-old wide receiver who had 800 receiving yards and 5 TDs last year.

Those numbers aren't really popcorn-worthy, and Terrell Owens is no longer the dominating fantasy force he once was. But when you consider he managed the aforementioned stats last year with some of the stiffs Buffalo trotted out at QB throwing him the ball, plus the fact that he had 10 receptions of 25 yards or longer last year (and the Bengals as a team had just 12), there's reason to believe T.O. could find his niche in Cincinnati.

Will he be a fantasy No. 1 or 2 WR this year? No. Will he have a hard time getting consistent targets in a crowded Bengals receiving corps that includes Chad Ochocinco, Antonio Bryant, rookie Jordan Shipley and others? Probably. Will he ruin the team chemistry with a tantrum or other distraction? Quite possibly.

But will Owens benefit from having Carson Palmer at QB and produce enough big plays to be a borderline No. 3 fantasy receiver? I might be willing to make that gamble on draft day.

Grading my 2009 busts

QB KURT WARNER, CARDINALS

The veteran didn't have as much of a dropoff as I feared - he missed just one game due to injury - but his numbers did plummet. He threw for 26 TDs, down from 30 a year ago, but the big killer was his 3,753 passing yards, nearly 1,000 fewer than 2008. I said Warner wouldn't be a top-5 QB as many predicted, and that Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers would be better picks at QB. Turns out several others would have been better picks, too - Warner finished outside the top 10 among fantasy QBs. GRADE: A+

WR PERCY HARVIN, VIKINGS

I tried to argue that Harvin wouldn't be consistent this season and therefore would be overrated as a No. 3 fantasy WR. In many ways, that was true - the rookie went through the entire month of October without doing much of anything, then tailed off again in late December while battling a headache problem. But his final stats - 790 receiving yards, 6 TDs, plus two return TDs - were helpful to anyone who used him at the right times, and he outperformed most of the other guys I liked better as No. 3s. GRADE: C+

RB LaDAINIAN TOMLINSON, CHARGERS

I was pretty much right on the money on this one. Though LT2 did end up with 12 rushing TDs - one more than last year - his yardage totals plummeted from 1,110 to 730 (rushing) and 426 to 124 (receiving). In fact, he never even posted a 100-yard-rushing game. I cautioned that he'd be taken in the first round of many leagues based on reputation alone, but he actually ended up barely finishing among the top 10 RBs in fantasy scoring. GRADE: A+

WR ANTONIO BRYANT, BUCCANEERS

I wasn't thrilled with the idea of Bryant as a No. 2 WR this year, as some suggested, and I wasn't even considering the fact Byron Leftwich wouldn't even make it three weeks as the Bucs' starting QB, or that Tampa Bay would be quite so awful. But all that contributed to Bryant's 600-yard, 4-TD season. GRADE: A+

RB DeANGELO WILLIAMS, PANTHERS

I warned that Williams, coming off an out-of-this-world 2008 fantasy season, was bound to disappoint if you counted on a repeat. He ended up with 400 fewer rushing yards and less than half as many TDs as the year before. I reasoned that fellow Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart would siphon off a lot of Williams' stats, and Stewart actually ended up with more yards and more TDs than Williams, who played only 13 games. GRADE: A

Three teams I'm trying to avoid

Call me crazy, but an NFL team firing its offensive coordinator less than two weeks before the start of the regular season usually isn't a formula for offensive excellence. That's why I'm trying to avoid most players from these three franchises:

CHIEFS

Of all three of these revamped/reworked/rebuilt offenses I'm talking about, the Chiefs were perhaps the most intriguing. Even though now-departed Chan Gailey was a holdover from the previous (unsuccessful) coaching regime, new K.C. head man Todd Haley is the mastermind behind the Cardinals' electrifying offense from a year ago. The firing of Gailey might not make a huge difference, but there were already warning signs about this offense: the poor offensive line play of the past few years, the decline of Larry Johnson and his various issues, the departure of Tony Gonzalez and the preseason injury suffered by new QB Matt Cassel. The combination of all red flags makes K.C.'s playmakers a little less desirable than they seemed during the offseason. WR Dwayne Bowe and Cassel should probably drop out of the preseason top 10 at their respective positions, and I don't trust LJ as anything more than a No. 3 RB at best. Still like Jamaal Charles as a deep sleeper though.

BUCS

The firing of OC Jeff Jagodzinski kind of came out of left field. Remember when the guy was a big NFL head coaching prospect? Well whatever, I guess being faced with the prospect of Byron Leftwich or Luke McCown as his starting QB, he was probably set up to fail anyway. McCown was traded to Jacksonville over the weekend, and Leftwich is officially the Bucs' Week 1 starter now, which shouldn't excite you much. It doesn't bode well for Antonio Bryant or Kellen Winslow either, so bump them down a peg from wherever they would be with a better QB at the helm. The Bucs do have a promising offensive line and should be able to to run the ball; the problem is they have three decent RBs to share the load, which means you have to be a bit skeptical of Derrick Ward, Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams until we see their roles.

BILLS

Buffalo's Turk Schonert is another assistant coach who never even got to start the season in his new position. He's blasting head coach Dick Jauron because the offensive playcalling "wasn't simple enough." A little imagination might not hurt after the Bills have been so ineffective on offense the past few years. Terrell Owens certainly livens things up a bit, but I'm proceeding with caution and treating him like a No. 2 fantasy receiver. Trent Edwards is no Tony Romo (or Donovan McNabb or Jeff Garcia) at this point and has a long way to go before he's anything more than a low-end fantasy backup. Lee Evans is tantalizing as always but seems perpetually bound to disappoint no matter what you expect out of him. And it's tough to take a chance on either Marshawn Lynch or Fred Jackson when you know there will be a major shakeup in their roles once Lynch serves his season-opening four-game suspension.

8/30 Bust of the Day: Antonio Bryant

WR ANTONIO BRYANT, TAMPA BAY BUCS

Bryant was a pleasant surprise last year, finally delivering on his potential with a 83-catch, 1,248-yard, 7-TD season. But as good as he was for the Bucs last year, there's plenty of reason to dislike him this year.

Start with the torn meniscus in his knee, which has kept him sidelined for the preseason so far. Factor in the fact that he doesn't have much to work with at QB this year (Byron Leftwich has been named the Bucs' Week 1 starter), and also consider the well-traveled receiver's spotty track record, and that's enough for me to treat Bryant as a No. 3 fantasy WR this year instead of the No. 2 many have him pegged as.

No use crying over shattered playoff dreams

Got a sob story from a Week 15 playoff loss?

I know of at least one matchup that was decided on that controversial Pittsburgh Steelers “touchdown” late Sunday afternoon.

Pass the Kleenex.

Or perhaps you started a seemingly fool-proof lineup consisting of some or all of the following: Eli Manning (191 yards, zero TDs, two INTs), Marion Barber (eight carries, 2 yards), Reggie Bush (46 total yards), Anquan Boldin (six catches, 34 yards), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (five catches, 19 yards) and Jeremy Shockey (one catch, 11 yards).

Yuck.

And what about yours truly? One of my playoff teams (the other had a first-round bye) put together its second-lowest point total of the whole season at the absolute worst time and got bounced. My decision to bench Tyler Thigpen (one TD passing, one rushing) in favor of Matt Ryan (zero TDs) at the last minute because of the poor weather forecast in Kansas City didn’t help my cause, but even that wouldn’t have been enough to save my team from its fate as an also-ran.

Just goes to show you that no one is exempt from bad luck, bad timing and bad decisions, even at playoff time. Those who are lucky enough to still be playing this week should keep this in mind as they try to dial up one more victory.

As you prep for your Week 16 showdown, consider the following:


g The Minnesota Vikings’ Tarvaris Jackson threw only 11 passes Sunday, and four of them went for touchdowns against what the Arizona Cardinals are calling a pass defense. I’m not advocating starting Jackson this week against the Atlanta Falcons, but I am giving New England Patriots QB Matt Cassel (above) my full seal of approval against a Cards D that gives up an average of two passing TDs a game, worst in the league. Randy Moss and Wes Welker are must-starts too.

g Tony Romo is a relatively safe play at QB (assuming his sore back feels better), but don’t go overboard with your expectations. The Baltimore Ravens have not allowed a quarterback to throw for more than one TD against them since Derek Anderson did so in Week 9.

g Two very sneaky RB choices that will get lost in the matchup of Drew Brees’ high-flying New Orleans Saints vs. the lowly Detroit Lions: Pierre Thomas (eight total TDs in his past five games) and Kevin Smith (212 total yards and a TD in his past two games). Both would be nice No. 2 RBs or flex players this week.


g Is it a coincidence some of the most productive running backs in recent weeks have been those with younger, fresher legs? Marshawn Lynch, Steve Slaton (above), Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew all fit that category — and all face suspect run defenses this week.

g It doesn’t really matter who starts at quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — his priority will be getting the ball downfield to Antonio Bryant, who’s caught four TDs in his past three games. He has a good shot at another one against the San Diego Chargers, who’ve allowed the third-most scores through the air in the league.

g Just for old time’s sake, you may want to start the San Francisco 49ers’ Isaac Bruce (26 catches, 333 yards and two TDs in his past four games) as he returns to his old stomping grounds, the home turf of the St. Louis Rams.