Is Tim Tebow a fantasy prospect?

To put it simply: No.

Not in 2010, anyway.

But can he be, eventually?

It's possible.

Even casual fans know Tim Tebow is not a polished product. If you've seen him running Urban Meyer's offense in Gainesville, you know it bears little resemblance to today's NFL. He can't step in right away in Week 1 and be an effective pro starter and fantasy force the way Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco were two seasons ago.

Even the Denver Broncos brass knows that, though they probably won't admit it. Tebow's going to need some tutelage, and they believe head coach Josh McDaniels is the guy for the job. He worked wonders with a little-known sixth-rounder (Tom Brady) who became a Hall of Famer under his watch, and then McDaniels made a guy who hadn't started a game since high school (Matt Cassel) into a legitimate starting QB.

Tebow will be given a shot to earn the starting job in 2010, and while he's probably not ready to beat out incumbent Kyle Orton or Brady Quinn this summer, neither of those guys are exactly entrenched starters who can never be toppled. Tebow will spend next year running Denver's "Wild Horses" package - their version of the wildcat - while learning the QB position. That still probably won't be enough to make Tebow fantasy-relevant, but McDaniels and the Broncos are going to give him every chance to make that the case in 2011.

So, no, even the most diehard Gator backers don't want Tebow on their fantasy roster next season.

But after that, it's certainly possible.


- Photo by The Associated Press

Hot Pickups: Week 10

FOUR STARS (Out of five)

RB LADELL BETTS, Redskins: Clinton Portis' understudy normally doesn't get a lot of touches, but with Portis knocked out last week, Betts carried the ball 15 times - his most since 2006 - for 70 yards and a TD. You may recall Betts had a dominating stretch of five straight 100-yard games at the end of the '06 season when he served as the Skins' feature back, so this isn't his first go-around. He's definitely worth a grab, and this week's matchup against Denver doesn't seem quite as tough after they let Rashard Mendenhall run wild.

THREE STARS

WR CHRIS CHAMBERS, Chiefs: A perennial disappointment, Chambers got cut by the Chargers just a week ago, then goes out and scores not one but TWO TDs in his first game as a Chief. Both scores came in garbage time, mind you, but K.C. will continue to have a lot of that this year, and Matt Cassel definitely seems to have some kind of a connection with Chambers, so why not give him a shot?

WR ROBERT MEACHEM, Saints: I've been waiting for this kid to break out for about 3 years now, and maybe last Sunday's game (5 catches, 98 yards, TD) was what I've been looking for. Everyone who plays a skill position for New Orleans is worth some fantasy consideration, and Meachem might make a good flex play in the following two weeks against St. Louis and Tampa Bay.

TWO STARS

QB JOSH FREEMAN, Bucs: There was plenty to like in Freeman's starting debut: the strong arm, the quick feet, the poise and the 3 TDs vs. 1 INT. Will there be bumps along the way? Of course. But keeper leagues and those that start two QBs have to take notice.

TE BRANDON PETTIGREW, Lions: The rookie from Oklahoma state had 7 catches for 70 yards - both career highs - and caught his first NFL TD in Week 9. He might be hard pressed to duplicate those stats again this season, but if you're in a deep league that carries two TEs per team he's certainly worth a shot.

Photo by The Associated Press

Sit 'Em: Week 5

- WR EDDIE ROYAL vs. New England: Your patience has got to be wearing thin with this guy (8 catches in 2009), and he's facing a top 10 passing defense. No thanks.

- RBs MICHAEL BUSH and JUSTIN FARGAS at N.Y. Giants: You may be tempted to use one of these guys in the wake of starter Darren McFadden's injury. Don't. Without any semblance of a Raiders passing game, odds are the Giants will be loading up against the run no matter who's in the backfield.

- QB MARK SANCHEZ at Miami: The Jets rookie had his "welcome to the NFL" game last week at New Orleans and will play in another hostile road environment against a good Dolphins D. There are safer bye-week fill-ins available.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Fred Jackson had his lowest rushing total of the season (42 yards) and caught 3 passes for 26 yards.

- Matt Cassel tossed two TDs in garbage time ... but he passed for only 127 yards.

- TJ Houshmandzadeh had 8 catches for 103 yards against the Colts, his best game so far this year ... oops.

Sit 'Em: Week 4

- FRED JACKSON at Dolphins: Freddie J has been a fantasy revelation so far, but he's got two major strikes against him this week: Miami's defense is one of the league's toughest against the run (66 yards allowed per game), and Marshawn Lynch returns from suspension this week. Hold onto Jackson, but sit him this week and wait to see how the Bills' timeshare pans out.

- MATT CASSEL vs. Giants: Let's think about this: He's coming off a game where he threw for 90 yards, his top target (Dwayne Bowe) has a hamstring injury and might not even play, and he's facing the league's top pass defense. It all adds up to keeping Cassel on your bench, unless you're desperate.

- TJ HOUSHMANDZADEH at Colts: He's a borderline play in PPR leagues this week, but even that's troublesome with Seneca Wallace under center (without Walter Jones protecting him) for the Seahawks. TJ hasn't topped 62 yards or scored a TD yet this season.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS:

- Carson Palmer led the Bengals to a big upset of the Steelers, but it wasn't helpful for fantasy purposes (183 yards, 1 TD), as I predicted.

- Joseph Addai got the job done (13 carries, 63 yards and a receiving TD) against Arizona. But Donald Brown (112 total yards) won't back down in his push for more playing time.

- Roy Williams had his highest reception total of the season (a whopping 4, for 75 yards) against Carolina but still hasn't justified his lofty draft status.

Start 'Em: Week 1

RB RAY RICE vs. Chiefs: You may have drafted him as a backup, but expect No. 1-type numbers against a K.C. D that finished in the league's bottom three last year against the run.

QB SHAUN HILL at Cardinals: He managed two TDs against Arizona in Week 10 last year. Not a terrible spot starter this week if you're worried about your top guy's health (Matt Schaub, Matt Cassel).

RB JULIUS JONES vs. Rams: This could be one of the few weeks Jones is start-worthy. He rushed for 140 yards and one of his two TDs of 2008 in a Week 3 matchup with St. Louis.

Three teams I'm trying to avoid

Call me crazy, but an NFL team firing its offensive coordinator less than two weeks before the start of the regular season usually isn't a formula for offensive excellence. That's why I'm trying to avoid most players from these three franchises:

CHIEFS

Of all three of these revamped/reworked/rebuilt offenses I'm talking about, the Chiefs were perhaps the most intriguing. Even though now-departed Chan Gailey was a holdover from the previous (unsuccessful) coaching regime, new K.C. head man Todd Haley is the mastermind behind the Cardinals' electrifying offense from a year ago. The firing of Gailey might not make a huge difference, but there were already warning signs about this offense: the poor offensive line play of the past few years, the decline of Larry Johnson and his various issues, the departure of Tony Gonzalez and the preseason injury suffered by new QB Matt Cassel. The combination of all red flags makes K.C.'s playmakers a little less desirable than they seemed during the offseason. WR Dwayne Bowe and Cassel should probably drop out of the preseason top 10 at their respective positions, and I don't trust LJ as anything more than a No. 3 RB at best. Still like Jamaal Charles as a deep sleeper though.

BUCS

The firing of OC Jeff Jagodzinski kind of came out of left field. Remember when the guy was a big NFL head coaching prospect? Well whatever, I guess being faced with the prospect of Byron Leftwich or Luke McCown as his starting QB, he was probably set up to fail anyway. McCown was traded to Jacksonville over the weekend, and Leftwich is officially the Bucs' Week 1 starter now, which shouldn't excite you much. It doesn't bode well for Antonio Bryant or Kellen Winslow either, so bump them down a peg from wherever they would be with a better QB at the helm. The Bucs do have a promising offensive line and should be able to to run the ball; the problem is they have three decent RBs to share the load, which means you have to be a bit skeptical of Derrick Ward, Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams until we see their roles.

BILLS

Buffalo's Turk Schonert is another assistant coach who never even got to start the season in his new position. He's blasting head coach Dick Jauron because the offensive playcalling "wasn't simple enough." A little imagination might not hurt after the Bills have been so ineffective on offense the past few years. Terrell Owens certainly livens things up a bit, but I'm proceeding with caution and treating him like a No. 2 fantasy receiver. Trent Edwards is no Tony Romo (or Donovan McNabb or Jeff Garcia) at this point and has a long way to go before he's anything more than a low-end fantasy backup. Lee Evans is tantalizing as always but seems perpetually bound to disappoint no matter what you expect out of him. And it's tough to take a chance on either Marshawn Lynch or Fred Jackson when you know there will be a major shakeup in their roles once Lynch serves his season-opening four-game suspension.

2008 fantasy football awards

As we flip the calendar to 2009, let us reflect on the fantasy season that was. Touchdowns were scored, championships were won and lost, and grown men and women spent the past four months arguing and obsessing over imaginary football teams.

Isn’t fantasy great?

Here are some players who deserve special recognition before we close the book on the 2008 fantasy football season:

MVP AWARD
Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner rushed for more yards, but DeAngelo Williams of the Carolina Panthers ran for a league-high 18 TDs and had some truly monster games down the stretch when we needed him most. And he wasn’t drafted in most leagues until at least the fourth round!


BUST OF THE YEAR AWARD
Maybe it’s unfair, Tom Brady gets the dishonor suffering a devastating knee injury in Week 1. If you made Brady your first pick, here’s what you got out of him: seven completions, 76 yards, zero TDs and a season of what ifs.

2008 ALL FANTASY TEAM
QB: Drew Brees; RB1: DeAngelo Williams; RB2: Michael Turner; WR1: Anquan Boldin; WR2: Larry Fitzgerald; TE: Tony Gonzalez; K: Stephen Gostkowski; DEF: Baltimore Ravens.

PICKUP OF THE YEAR AWARD


Matt Cassel’s own family members wouldn’t have drafted him this year, but the former unknown finished the season as a top-10 fantasy QB filling in for Brady.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR AWARD
Matt Forte and Steve Slaton share the honors after both rushed for more than 1,000 yards and scored eight TDs in their debut seasons.

FUTURE FANTASY STUD AWARD
Texas Tech’s Michael Crabtree could be a fantasy No. 2 by the end of 2009, provided he winds up in the right offense with the right QB. Oakland Raiders, you’re on the clock.

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD
Thomas Jones rushed for 13 TDs for the New York Jets — almost doubling his total from the previous two seasons.

MOST DANGEROUS PLAYER AWARD
Let’s say your team has a comfortable lead, but your opponent has one player left in the Monday night game. Who do you fear most? For me it’s Brian Westbrook, a versatile little son-of-a-gun who’s capable of a four-TD effort on any given day. And I should know: I went head-to-head with a Westbrook owner twice in one league this season, and the dude scored SEVEN TDs against me in two games.

ONE-WEEK WONDER AWARD
Brady Quinn enjoyed a promising debut as an NFL starter Nov. 9 against Denver, throwing for 239 yards and two TDs. Then he failed to find the end zone in the next two games before suffering a season-ending injury.

BEST PREDICTIONS BY YOURS TRULY
I was high on Kevin Smith and Roddy White as preseason sleepers; I jumped on the bandwagons of Matt Cassel, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Ryan and Tim Hightower early; I wasn’t buying the Darren McFadden or David Garrard hype; I predicted a huge bounce-back by Donovan McNabb (four TDs) in Week 13 against Arizona when everyone said he was done.

WORST PREDICTIONS BY YOURS TRULY
I believed Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards could form the nucleus of a fantasy champion; I picked Cincinnati Bengals tight end Ben Utecht (who?) as one of my top sleepers; I didn’t have Steve Slaton ranked in my top 50 preseason running backs.


RISING STOCK
Kevin Smith, Tyler Thigpen, Chris Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson.


FALLING STOCK
Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Tony Romo, Reggie Bush, Braylon Edwards, Joseph Addai, Terrell Owens.

SUPER EARLY TOP 10 FOR 2009
1. Adrian Peterson; 2. Michael Turner; 3. Drew Brees; 4. Matt Forte; 5. Chris Johnson; 6. Brian Westbrook; 7. DeAngelo Williams; 8. Randy Moss; 9. Brandon Jacobs; 10. LaDainian Tomlinson

Game-planning for Week 17? Good luck

Week 17 of the NFL season is probably the trickiest one to predict from a fantasy standpoint.

You’ve got a handful of teams that already have their playoff positioning locked in. Will they opt to rest their key starters? We saw how that strategy backfired on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year. So do teams instead go the New York Giants’ route and give 100 percent in a “meaningless” finale? The Giants players credited their Week 17 loss to the New England Patriots last year as a catalyst for their Super Bowl run.

NFL coaches face some serious conundrums when it comes to resting starters who are nursing injuries and risking their teams losing momentum or getting out of synch come playoff time. And then there are the non-playoff teams: Are they motivated to play spoiler or end the season on a high note, or have they already mentally packed their bags for some sunny offseason locale?

It’s an interesting dilemma, and it makes for some difficult roster calls. Here’s some advice for those whose fantasy teams are still alive this week:

g The Arizona Cardinals clinched a playoff spot weeks ago, but I’d still expect to see at least a few quarters out of Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and the still-healing Anquan Boldin against Seattle. Those three need to get their aerial act together if they want to avoid getting bounced in the first round, so count on them seeing significant time against a bad Seahawks defense coming off an emotional win with little left to play for.

g I’m avoiding Marion Barber and his toe troubles this week unless I have no other choice — and that includes Dallas Cowboys rookie backup Tashard Choice, who’s run for 88, 91 and 90 yards against three of the league’s toughest run defenses the past three weeks.

g Use caution if you’re starting any Indianapolis Colts or Tennessee Titans, as both of those teams already have their playoff spots locked in. A quarter or two of Peyton Manning is probably too good to pass up, but I’d be a little hesitant about starting anyone else in that game.

g Start all your noteworthy San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos in what will be a win-or-go-home, defensively challenged shootout: Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, LaDainian Tomlinson, Vincent Jackson, Darren Sproles, Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Tony Scheffler and Eddie Royal. Just bench Broncos RB Tatum Bell — the position’s cursed this year.

g The New Orleans Saints are out of it, but Drew Brees is only 402 yards shy of Dan Marino’s single-season passing record. Brees, Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Pierre Thomas are worth starting, even against the Carolina Panthers, whose playoff positioning has yet to be determined.

g If the Detroit Lions want to avoid an 0-16 season (let’s assume they do) they would be wise to utilize running back Kevin Smith against Green Bay. The rookie matched his single-season high for carries (24) last week and had his second-best rushing total (112) along with a TD. With enough work he could match those numbers against the Packers’ so-so run D.

g If last week taught us anything, it’s to start your New England Patriots no matter what the weather forecast looks like. QB Matt Cassel was simply awesome in the snow, and with a playoff spot still a possibility I expect he and the Pats’ passing game will crush the Buffalo Bills.

g This sounds crazy after the Giants just rushed for 301 yards, but you may want to avoid all of Big Blue’s running backs this week. New York has nothing to play for against the Minnesota Vikings, so they could opt to rest Brandon Jacobs and his ailing knee — which limits Derrick Ward’s threat as a change-of-pace back. Ahmad Bradshaw might end up seeing the most touches, but he faces a stout run defense and a team that still hasn’t clinched a playoff spot.

No use crying over shattered playoff dreams

Got a sob story from a Week 15 playoff loss?

I know of at least one matchup that was decided on that controversial Pittsburgh Steelers “touchdown” late Sunday afternoon.

Pass the Kleenex.

Or perhaps you started a seemingly fool-proof lineup consisting of some or all of the following: Eli Manning (191 yards, zero TDs, two INTs), Marion Barber (eight carries, 2 yards), Reggie Bush (46 total yards), Anquan Boldin (six catches, 34 yards), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (five catches, 19 yards) and Jeremy Shockey (one catch, 11 yards).

Yuck.

And what about yours truly? One of my playoff teams (the other had a first-round bye) put together its second-lowest point total of the whole season at the absolute worst time and got bounced. My decision to bench Tyler Thigpen (one TD passing, one rushing) in favor of Matt Ryan (zero TDs) at the last minute because of the poor weather forecast in Kansas City didn’t help my cause, but even that wouldn’t have been enough to save my team from its fate as an also-ran.

Just goes to show you that no one is exempt from bad luck, bad timing and bad decisions, even at playoff time. Those who are lucky enough to still be playing this week should keep this in mind as they try to dial up one more victory.

As you prep for your Week 16 showdown, consider the following:


g The Minnesota Vikings’ Tarvaris Jackson threw only 11 passes Sunday, and four of them went for touchdowns against what the Arizona Cardinals are calling a pass defense. I’m not advocating starting Jackson this week against the Atlanta Falcons, but I am giving New England Patriots QB Matt Cassel (above) my full seal of approval against a Cards D that gives up an average of two passing TDs a game, worst in the league. Randy Moss and Wes Welker are must-starts too.

g Tony Romo is a relatively safe play at QB (assuming his sore back feels better), but don’t go overboard with your expectations. The Baltimore Ravens have not allowed a quarterback to throw for more than one TD against them since Derek Anderson did so in Week 9.

g Two very sneaky RB choices that will get lost in the matchup of Drew Brees’ high-flying New Orleans Saints vs. the lowly Detroit Lions: Pierre Thomas (eight total TDs in his past five games) and Kevin Smith (212 total yards and a TD in his past two games). Both would be nice No. 2 RBs or flex players this week.


g Is it a coincidence some of the most productive running backs in recent weeks have been those with younger, fresher legs? Marshawn Lynch, Steve Slaton (above), Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew all fit that category — and all face suspect run defenses this week.

g It doesn’t really matter who starts at quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — his priority will be getting the ball downfield to Antonio Bryant, who’s caught four TDs in his past three games. He has a good shot at another one against the San Diego Chargers, who’ve allowed the third-most scores through the air in the league.

g Just for old time’s sake, you may want to start the San Francisco 49ers’ Isaac Bruce (26 catches, 333 yards and two TDs in his past four games) as he returns to his old stomping grounds, the home turf of the St. Louis Rams.

Your guide to success in important Week 14

Forget about putting up the Christmas lights this weekend and tell your significant other you’re taking a pass on that shopping trip.

This is a crucial week in fantasy football, either the regular season finale or the opening of the playoffs. We can’t be bothered with trivial stuff like holiday preparations, household chores and human interaction. It’s Week 14! Enough nonsense . . . we’ve got more important things to think about, like who to start and who to sit this week.

START ’EM

g RB Adrian Peterson at Detroit: The biggest no-brainer in the history of no-brainers.

g RB Larry Johnson at Denver: He torched the Broncos for 198 yards and two TDs in Week 4.

g RB DeAngelo Williams vs. Tampa Bay: I make it a point to never sit a running back coming off a four-TD game. Call me crazy.

g RB Brian Westbrook at New York Giants: See above.

g QB Matt Cassel at Seattle: Welcome back to reality, son. Now go out there and carve up that Seahawks “secondary.”

g QB Kurt Warner vs. St. Louis: If he doesn’t throw for at least 300 yards and two TDs, I’ll buy you a drink.

g WR Bernard Berrian at Detroit: His best fantasy output of the season was against — you guessed it — the Lions in Week 6 (five catches, 131 yards, TD).

g WR Lance Moore vs. Atlanta: Has caught six TDs in his past five games and should continue the trend.

g WR Torry Holt at Arizona: He has only two TD receptions this year, but one came against the generous Cardinals pass defense in Week 9.

SIT ’EM

g RB Jamal Lewis at Tennessee: I’m no defensive coordinator, but do you think the Titans might stack the box this week with Ken Dorsey playing QB for Cleveland?

g RB Clinton Portis at Baltimore: It pains me to say this because I know he’s carried you (and Washington) all year. But Portis is banged-up, coming off his worst game of the year (22 yards) and facing the Ravens. That’s three strikes.

g RB Marion Barber at Pittsburgh: Uncertainty about his toe injury and the Steelers’ run defense make me very apprehensive this week.

g RB Willis McGahee vs. Washington: How can you start a guy who suited up the week before but had no carries?

g QB Tony Romo at Pittsburgh: Games against San Francisco and Seattle were walks in the park, but did you see what the Steelers did to poor Cassel last week? Factor in the prospect of no Barber in the backfield and bad weather in the Steel City, and I’m considering other options.

g QB Jake Delhomme vs. Tampa Bay: The Bucs are simply too tough. There are at least 20 other quarterbacks with more upside this week.

g WR Braylon Edwards at Tennessee: No way am I putting my playoff chances in this guy’s hands. Or to be more accurate, letting them bounce off this guy’s fingertips.

g WR Chad Johnson at Indianapolis: There’s a big difference between doing funny things in the end zone and having an absolute joke of a season. I bet I could close my eyes, pick up a random receiver off the waiver wire and get more production out of him this week than Ocho Cinco.

g WR Roy Williams at Pittsburgh: This guy’s stock has plummeted more than — well, it’s just as bad as all the stocks out there in real life, I guess. But there’s no reason to start him in any fantasy league this week.

Hot pickups: Week 2

WR Eddie Royal, Denver Broncos: Perhaps you saw him abuse the Oakland Raiders on Monday night, finishing with a league-high 146 receiving yards and a TD. Remember, Brandon Marshall will be back in uniform this week, and the Broncos won't be playing the Raiders every week. ... but I'm still nabbing the rookie from Virginia Tech, because he looks like a contributor. FIVE STARS (Out of five)

QB Matt Cassel, New England Patriots: You know the deal here. Cassel is no Tom Brady (yet), but he still has Tom Brady's teammates and Tom Brady's coaches. A must pickup if you owned Brady, or just want to tick off a Brady owner. FOUR STARS

RB Sammy Morris, New England Patriots: Looks like we didn't learn from last year's game of musical chairs at RB for the Pats. Check out last Sunday's stat sheet: 10 carries for Morris, 10 carries for Laurence Maroney, with Morris getting a short-yardage TD. The Pats played around like this in the early part of last year too - yet Maroney was going in the second or third round of most drafts this year and Morris likely didn't get his name called. Time for that to change. FOUR STARS

WRs David Patten and Robert Meachem, New Orleans Saints: With Marques Colston (thumb) out 4-6 weeks, Drew Brees will be looking for some new targets. Patten, who caught a 39-yard TD in Week 1, will probably make a more immediate impact, though Meachem (inactive last week) is worth a look in deeper leagues as a contributor later down the road. FOUR STARS

QB Damon Huard, Kansas City Chiefs: The veteran is starting again with Brodie Croyle out for up to four weeks. Huard is only a stopgap of course, and K.C. may even take a look at untested Tyler Thigpen at some point. But Huard does get to face the Oakland Raiders this Sunday, and in case you didn’t see them in their opener, the Raiders aren’t so good this year.FOUR STARS

QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: Ryan made a heck of a debut for the Atlanta Falcons. But take away the 62-yard touchdown on his first NFL pass, and the rookie was 8 of 12 passing for 99 yards against the Detroit Lions. Granted, he didn’t have to do much besides hand off to Michael Turner (220 rushing yards), but he was also throwing against the league’s 31st-ranked pass defense from a year ago. I like Ryan, but things are going to get tougher, and he’s not an every-week fantasy starter at this point. THREE STARS

TE John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks: The rookie is one of the few healthy pass catchers on Seattle's roster right now. Carlson was one of the few bright spots at Notre Dame last year, leading Charlie Weis' team in receptions (40) and scoring three TDs. He caught four balls for 52 yards in his pro debut last week, and I have a feeling Matt Hasselbeck will be looking for him this Sunday against the 49ers, and in the weeks to come. THREE STARS

Photos by The Associated Press