8/22 Sleeper of the Day: Aaron Hernandez

TE AARON HERNANDEZ, Patriots

One of Tim Tebow's favorite targets in college, Hernandez now has the chance to be Tom Brady's boy in New England. The 2010 fourth-rounder won the Mackey Award as the nation's top tight end in his junior season for the Gators and offers the Pats a much-needed offensive threat at the position.

Now, anyone who's had a New England player not named Brady or Randy Moss on their fantasy squad in the past few seasons can tell you the team's offensive philosophy can be maddening. They alter their gameplans so much from week to week and utilize such a variety of players in many different ways that it's hard to see any kind of consistency. Consider this year's stable of TEs: Hernandez, fellow rookie Rob Gronkowski and former fantasy star Alge Crumpler have lined up all over the field this preseason for the Pats (split out wide or in the slot as receivers; as wing backs and fullbacks; plus at the traditional TE spot) and will all be vying for catches this year.

For those reasons, none of those guys is going to be a weekly fantasy contributor you can count on in 2010, but I'd be willing to bet they all have their moments. And I bet Hernandez, the most physically gifted receiver of the three, will have the most moments that are fantasy relevant. He already has seven catches for 72 yards and a TD through two preseason games and has started both contests. I predict a few big games out of the rookie when the matchups dictate, and he could be a sneaky No. 2 TE pick at the end of 12-team drafts. At the very least he'll be someone to watch on the waiver wire.


Photo by The Associated Press

2010 QB Rankings

A surprise at the top: Aaron Rodgers is the No. 1 QB in my preseason rankings.

Drew Brees got more pub last year - winning a Super Bowl will do that - but it was actually Rodgers who had more pass attempts and more yards than the Saints star. The Other A-Rod threw 30 TDs, four fewer than Brees, but he also rushed for 5 TDs to Brees' 2, and he tossed four fewer INTs than New Orleans' leader.

Rodgers isn't sneaking up on anyone like last year, and he certainly won't come as cheaply in your fantasy draft. But he's younger than Brees, is a more dangerous rusher and has his full complement of weapons back this year. Plus, he put up last year's excellent numbers despite taking a league-high 50 sacks, a number that's sure to drop with the healthy returns of veteran tackles Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton and the addition of first-rounder Bryan Bulaga.

Some other notes:

Tom Brady falls out of the top 5, mostly because I like some of the league's younger QBs better. Brady's still a bona fide fantasy starter, but I just can't pencil him into the top 3 like I used to anymore.

Brett Favre's value is tough to predict, but it's all about his health, I have to believe that ankle will be healed by Week 1 since he's already joined Vikings camp. Last year's miraculous numbers will be hard to duplicate, but he should still be a top-10 guy if he can last through the season.

I put Kevin Kolb just outside the top-10, which means he's not a starter in your typical 10-team league, but it would not shock me to see him finish there.

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Drew Brees
3. Peyton Manning
4. Matt Schaub
5. Tony Romo
6. Tom Brady
7. Philip Rivers
8. Brett Favre
9. Jay Cutler
10. Joe Flacco
11. Kevin Kolb
12. Eli Manning
13. Matt Ryan
14. Donovan McNabb
15. Ben Roethlisberger
16. Matthew Stafford
17. Chad Henne
18. Carson Palmer
19. Vince Young
20. Matt Cassel
21. Matt Leinart
22. David Garrard
23. Alex Smith
24. Jason Campbell
25. Mark Sanchez
26. Josh Freeman
27. Kyle Orton
28. Matt Hasselbeck
29. Matt Moore
30. Trent Edwards
31. Michael Vick
32. Sam Bradford
33. Charlie Whitehurst
34. Jake Delhomme
35. Seneca Wallace
36. Byron Leftwich
37. Tavaris Jackson
38. Brady Quinn
39. Derek Anderson
40. Ryan Fitzpatrick

8/15 Bust of the Day: Tom Brady

QB TOM BRADY, Patriots




Before you flip out and call me a crazy Brady hater (or worse), please read this blog carefully. I'm not predicting Tom Terrific's days as a fantasy force are over. I'm not saying he's washed up or not worth drafting. I'm simply stating my belief that Brady will fail to deliver on the general consensus of expectations for him this year, which is how I define a bust.

But first, the positives: Brady's currently playing for a new contract, as is his top receiver, the always dangerous Randy Moss. Standout slot man Wes Welker is progressing nicely from reconstructive knee surgery. The Pats still don't have a go-to running back, which means plenty of pass attempts. And Brady's more than a year removed from a devastating knee injury of his own.

Now check this out: I'm seeing Brady being touted as a definite-top-5/possibly-top-3/maybe-top-overall QB in many fantasy circles, but a lot of that is still based on memories of his record-breaking, pre-injury 2007 season. Take away that 50-TD anomaly, and he's never thrown for more than 28 scores in a season. Granted, he equaled that number last year and also had his second-most passing yards (4,398) - yet he still finished as the seventh-rated fantasy QB in standard-scoring leagues.

Other QBs have closed the gap on old stalwarts Brady and Peyton Manning - not just new standard-bearer Drew Brees but also young upstarts like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers and Tony Romo. Brady still might be a safe fantasy pick, but it depends where you're picking him too, because there are others available who might have more upside or be even safer. Remember, Brady's 33 years old (and so is Moss for that matter) and is going to eventually decline. Nobody wants to spend a first- or second-round pick on him the year that happens.

That's all I'm sayin'.

Is Tim Tebow a fantasy prospect?

To put it simply: No.

Not in 2010, anyway.

But can he be, eventually?

It's possible.

Even casual fans know Tim Tebow is not a polished product. If you've seen him running Urban Meyer's offense in Gainesville, you know it bears little resemblance to today's NFL. He can't step in right away in Week 1 and be an effective pro starter and fantasy force the way Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco were two seasons ago.

Even the Denver Broncos brass knows that, though they probably won't admit it. Tebow's going to need some tutelage, and they believe head coach Josh McDaniels is the guy for the job. He worked wonders with a little-known sixth-rounder (Tom Brady) who became a Hall of Famer under his watch, and then McDaniels made a guy who hadn't started a game since high school (Matt Cassel) into a legitimate starting QB.

Tebow will be given a shot to earn the starting job in 2010, and while he's probably not ready to beat out incumbent Kyle Orton or Brady Quinn this summer, neither of those guys are exactly entrenched starters who can never be toppled. Tebow will spend next year running Denver's "Wild Horses" package - their version of the wildcat - while learning the QB position. That still probably won't be enough to make Tebow fantasy-relevant, but McDaniels and the Broncos are going to give him every chance to make that the case in 2011.

So, no, even the most diehard Gator backers don't want Tebow on their fantasy roster next season.

But after that, it's certainly possible.


- Photo by The Associated Press

Best of the decade?

As we say goodbye to 2009, I'm seeing all kinds of all-decade lists popping up all over the place (Best movies? Best songs? Best TV themes?)

It got me thinking: Who were the best fantasy players of the 2000s? It'd be awfully hard to narrow it down to an all-decade team. For instance, Peyton Manning's probably the obvious choice at QB, but how do you deny Tom Brady's record-busting 2007 season? Or how do you narrow it down to 1 or 2 running backs - say, LaDainian Tomlinson and Priest Holmes - and leave out a Brian Westbrook or Adrian Peterson or Marshall Faulk?

Jay Clemons of SI.com actually figured out a better approach, ranking the top 10 fantasy seasons of the decade. Here's what they came up with in a nutshell:

1. Tom Brady, 2007
2. LaDainian Tomlinson, 2006
3. Peyton Manning, 2004
4. Randy Moss, 2007
5. Shaun Alexander, 2005
6. Daunte Culpepper, 2004
7. LaDainian Tomlinson, 2003
8. Marvin Harrison, 2002
9. Tony Gonzalez, 2004
10. Drew Brees, 2008

A few things jump out at me:

- How does Holmes not make the list? It's easy to forget that near the start of the decade he was every bit as dominating as Tomlinson in his prime and single-handedly won many leagues in the early 2000s. A tight end makes the list and Priest doesn't?

- Brady may have had the single most impressive fantasy season of the '00s, but as SI points out, the rest of his career belongs simply in the "good" category, from a fantasy standpoint.

- It's almost unfathomable that Culpepper, who can't even stay on the field for the Detroit Lions nowadays, was once the game's best fantasy QB. I owned him in 2004, his incredible 39-TD season, and loved every minute of it. I also drafted him the following year, the start of his long downward career spiral, and still haven't forgiven him.

Photo by The Associated Press

Week 6 recap

Random thoughts from another week of gridiron goodness:

- Take a bow, Tom Brady (380 yards, 6 TDs). You've got to be licking your chops thinking about Sunday's game against the Bucs in London.

- Do Drew Brees' 4 TD passes make up for not him not throwing one in the two games before that? Probably. But it'd be nice to see a little more consistency.

- I knew Visanthe Shiancoe (5 TDs in 6 games) and Brett Favre would be a great team.

- Remember when Willis McGahee was a hot pickup? After three consecutive dreadful weeks (5 carries, 11 yards; 1 carry, -2 yards; 7 carries, 3 yards), I'm extremely glad I didn't jump on that bandwagon and stuck with Ray Rice (194 total yards, 2 TDs) as the Raven runner to own.

- I'm surprised Ben Roethlisberger has thrown the ball so much this year - at least 30 attempts in every game this season - but the results have been great the past few weeks. I'm afraid they might not be the next two weeks (vs. Minnesota, at Denver), however.

- Jake Delhomme (9-for-17, 65 yards) is killing Steve Smith's value. So is the Panthers' rejuvenated running game. But I still don't think I can resist starting Smith this week against Buffalo.

- Clinton Portis registered his first 100-yard rushing game of the year Sunday. Too bad his upcoming schedule (Philly, at Atlanta, Denver, at Dallas, at Philly, New Orleans) and the Redskins' offensive turmoil (in other words, they suck) will make it hard for him to repeat it any time soon.

- Good to see the Jaguars' coaching staff took Maurice Jones-Drew's (33 carries, 133 yards, 3 TDs, plus 45 receiving yards) complaints to heart. Now let's see the same thing against Tennessee and Kansas City, OK?

- Matt Schaub now has 4 outstanding fantasy performances and two busts. Hopefully the Texans will keep airing it out and Schaub can be penciled in as a no-doubt, every-week starter.

- Aaron Rodgers still put together a good day (358 yards, 2 TDs) despite getting sacked 5 times. You can do that against Detroit (and Cleveland next week), but the Packers' protection problems have me very nervous about Rodgers in some of the tougher matchups he'll face later on.

- So much for Matt Hasselback (10-for-29, 112 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) being back to fantasy starter status. That was painful.

The great QB debate

Who's the top QB to target in fantasy this year? For me, the choice comes down to three: Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

Let's start with old reliable, Mr. Manning. Has he had a disappointing season yet? He's never missed a start in 11 seasons. He's never thrown for fewer than 3,700 yards or 26 TDs in a season either. Now, Manning is a long way from his amazing 49-TD season in 2004, the record-breaking Reggie Wayne-Marvin Harrison duo is no more, and he's dealing with the most significant coaching changes of his NFL career. At age 33, Peyton doesn't offer the same kind of upside he once did - but at the same time, there's probably no safer pick in all of fantasy. He checks in at No. 3 on this year's QB rankings.

If you're more of a gambler, Brady might be your pick. Some people want to pretend like last year's devastating Week 1 knee injury never happened and Brady will pick up where he left off with 2007's 50-TD campaign. I'm not sure I can go with that, and I'd have to think long and hard before making Brady my QB. We've seen other quarterbacks - Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb - struggle to come back from similar ACL injuries, but they were much more mobile than Brady to begin with. Carson Palmer also suffered a similar injury in 2005 but bounced back nicely the following season. Can Brady do the same? He's had a full year to recover, and his strong point has never been his legs anyway. Can he return to the same record-setting, fantasy-MVP level he was at in '07? Maybe. He's got just as many receiving targets - Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Joey Galloway, Greg Lewis - a similar running back committee and and the same mastermind, Bill Belichick, running the offense. There may not be a QB with more fantasy potential, but if that knee isn't fully healed, taking Brady with a first-round pick could devastate your team. He's No. 2 on our list.

That leaves Brees as this year's top fantasy QB. He's led the league in pass attempts the past two seasons, and although the Saints might like to be a little more balanced on offense, Sean Payton's not afraid to air it out, meaning Brees has a legit shot at hitting the 5,000-yard mark and maybe setting the single-season passing record. With a complete arsenal - Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Jeremy Shockey, Billy Miller, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas - to spread the ball around to, Brees could finish head and shoulders above the rest of the league's QBs.

2008 fantasy football awards

As we flip the calendar to 2009, let us reflect on the fantasy season that was. Touchdowns were scored, championships were won and lost, and grown men and women spent the past four months arguing and obsessing over imaginary football teams.

Isn’t fantasy great?

Here are some players who deserve special recognition before we close the book on the 2008 fantasy football season:

MVP AWARD
Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner rushed for more yards, but DeAngelo Williams of the Carolina Panthers ran for a league-high 18 TDs and had some truly monster games down the stretch when we needed him most. And he wasn’t drafted in most leagues until at least the fourth round!


BUST OF THE YEAR AWARD
Maybe it’s unfair, Tom Brady gets the dishonor suffering a devastating knee injury in Week 1. If you made Brady your first pick, here’s what you got out of him: seven completions, 76 yards, zero TDs and a season of what ifs.

2008 ALL FANTASY TEAM
QB: Drew Brees; RB1: DeAngelo Williams; RB2: Michael Turner; WR1: Anquan Boldin; WR2: Larry Fitzgerald; TE: Tony Gonzalez; K: Stephen Gostkowski; DEF: Baltimore Ravens.

PICKUP OF THE YEAR AWARD


Matt Cassel’s own family members wouldn’t have drafted him this year, but the former unknown finished the season as a top-10 fantasy QB filling in for Brady.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR AWARD
Matt Forte and Steve Slaton share the honors after both rushed for more than 1,000 yards and scored eight TDs in their debut seasons.

FUTURE FANTASY STUD AWARD
Texas Tech’s Michael Crabtree could be a fantasy No. 2 by the end of 2009, provided he winds up in the right offense with the right QB. Oakland Raiders, you’re on the clock.

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD
Thomas Jones rushed for 13 TDs for the New York Jets — almost doubling his total from the previous two seasons.

MOST DANGEROUS PLAYER AWARD
Let’s say your team has a comfortable lead, but your opponent has one player left in the Monday night game. Who do you fear most? For me it’s Brian Westbrook, a versatile little son-of-a-gun who’s capable of a four-TD effort on any given day. And I should know: I went head-to-head with a Westbrook owner twice in one league this season, and the dude scored SEVEN TDs against me in two games.

ONE-WEEK WONDER AWARD
Brady Quinn enjoyed a promising debut as an NFL starter Nov. 9 against Denver, throwing for 239 yards and two TDs. Then he failed to find the end zone in the next two games before suffering a season-ending injury.

BEST PREDICTIONS BY YOURS TRULY
I was high on Kevin Smith and Roddy White as preseason sleepers; I jumped on the bandwagons of Matt Cassel, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Ryan and Tim Hightower early; I wasn’t buying the Darren McFadden or David Garrard hype; I predicted a huge bounce-back by Donovan McNabb (four TDs) in Week 13 against Arizona when everyone said he was done.

WORST PREDICTIONS BY YOURS TRULY
I believed Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards could form the nucleus of a fantasy champion; I picked Cincinnati Bengals tight end Ben Utecht (who?) as one of my top sleepers; I didn’t have Steve Slaton ranked in my top 50 preseason running backs.


RISING STOCK
Kevin Smith, Tyler Thigpen, Chris Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson.


FALLING STOCK
Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Tony Romo, Reggie Bush, Braylon Edwards, Joseph Addai, Terrell Owens.

SUPER EARLY TOP 10 FOR 2009
1. Adrian Peterson; 2. Michael Turner; 3. Drew Brees; 4. Matt Forte; 5. Chris Johnson; 6. Brian Westbrook; 7. DeAngelo Williams; 8. Randy Moss; 9. Brandon Jacobs; 10. LaDainian Tomlinson

Can you trust your fantasy QB?

In these uncertain times, it’s nice to know there’s someone you can trust.

By no means is this a political statement. I’m actually referring to your fantasy team’s quarterback, someone who can be plugged into your lineup week after week and unfailingly deliver the bulk of your points.

The problem is, there aren’t too many QBs who definitely fit this mold. Tom Brady used to be one, but we all know what happened to him this year. Peyton Manning is probably still one, even though he’s looked a little more mortal so far this year. And Tony Romo’s probably the most trustworthy QB out there right now, at least from a fantasy owner’s standpoint.

As for those who don’t own Manning or Romo, you’re probably relying on a quarterback with a lot of question marks attached to his name. I’ve taken a look at all the league’s starting signal-callers and identified those who deserve your trust the rest of the way. That’s not to say you’re hopeless if you don’t own one of the QBs who made the cut; just let this help you decide if you can count on your guy or if you need to consider an upgrade or backup plan.

Here’s how I break it down:

QBs YOU CAN TRUST

Jay Cutler: This coming-of-age QB is averaging 300 yards a game, second-best in the NFL, and has a number of options at his disposal.

Drew Brees: He leads the league in pass attempts and will continue to air it out, especially if his team’s defense doesn’t improve.

Brett Favre: His six-TD performance slants his overall numbers, but Favre will continue to improve as he learns the offense. He also has a very favorable schedule the next five weeks.

Philip Rivers: He’s starting to come down to Earth after starting with three superb games, but Rivers has already got more than half of last year’s TD total.

Eli Manning: What a difference a year makes. Eli’s been more efficient than flashy, and the schedule gets considerably tougher in a few weeks, but so far, so good.

Aaron Rodgers: Assuming his shoulder’s not hurt too badly, the Green Bay Packers will continue to let Rodgers throw, especially since they can’t run the ball very well.

Kurt Warner: Sure, he contemplated retiring, but he’s also enjoying one of his best seasons in years. Sounds like Anquan Boldin will be back in a couple weeks, which is great news for this pass-heavy offense.

Ben Roethlisberger: He’s spent a lot of time on the trainer’s table this year, but a banged-up Big Ben is still capable of a big day, as he showed last week (309 yards, three TDs) when everyone was ready to count him out.

Jason Campbell: Maybe he and his team are overachieving … or maybe Campbell’s just fulfilling his potential. He hasn’t thrown an interception yet and has some nice matchups in the coming weeks.

QBs YOU CAN'T TRUST

Derek Anderson, Marc Bulger/Trent Green, Matt Cassel, Kerry Collins, Brody Croyle/Damon Huard/Tyler Thigpen, Jake Delhomme, Trent Edwards, Joe Flacco, Matt Flynn, Gus Frerotte, David Garrard, Brian Griese/Jeff Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, Jon Kitna, Donovan McNabb, Kyle Orton, J.T. O’Sullivan, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, JaMarcus Russell, Matt Schaub.

Brady blues

Week 1 is in the books, and you may have heard the big news:

Tom Brady is done for the year.

It's a crushing blow for anyone who reached for Brady in the first round and built their team around him. It's also bad news for anybody counting on big points from Randy Moss or Wes Welker.

If you own Brady, now what? Is Matt Cassel the answer? You've probably got to pick him up - although I see him as more of a low-end No. 2 QB than anything else. Granted, he's got weapons to throw to and a scheming genius calling his plays, but he's also a guy who has not started a game since high school (You read that correctly - Cassel was a career backup at USC), and the Pats were concerned enough to bring in Tim Rattay and Chris Simms for workouts. Cassel's a huge unknown - he could be a diamond in the rough (much like Brady once was, as you'll recall), but more than likely he's just an average fantasy QB.

Hopefully, you've drafted well and have a capable backup or are already putting together a trade proposal; you can bet the rest of your league is thinking about making an offer to take advantage of you while you're down. There are only a handful of QBs in the league who could replicate Brady's expected numbers, though, so expect to take a step backward no matter who you turn to.

An early football top 10

Never too early to start thinking about next season, right?

Here's a peek at the top 10 names on my football board for 2008. Remember, all predictions are subject to change, but here's how I've got them slotted right now:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson: Even in a "down" year, he led the league in rushing. Not too shabby.

2. Brian Westbrook: Versatile little guy never disappoints but always seems to get disrespected on draft day. Not by me, though.

3. Adrian Peterson: Rookie put to rest injury/timeshare worries with an awesome year. Late-season tailspin is a concern, but upside is too good to ignore.

4. Joseph Addai: A workhorse back with young legs and a nose for the end zone? I'll take it.

5. Tom Brady: Amazing '07 pushes him way up the draft board, and with good reason. But I'd bet the Pats reassess their running game this offseason, meaning Brady's numbers will dip slightly.

6. Steven Jackson: Here's hoping the Rams improve their offensive line in '08. Maybe then Jackson will have the kind of season he was supposed to this year.

7. Peyton Manning: Old reliable gets slotted behind Brady for the first time. But he's still as steady as they come.

8. Frank Gore: With Mike Martz taking over the 49ers' offense, a healthy Gore could approach Marshall Faulk territory if everything falls into place.

9. Randy Moss: He's found a comfort zone with Brady and the Pats. Twenty-three TDs will be hard to touch, but he'll try.

10. Tony Romo: I don't think he'll be going on vacation anytime soon. Big things will be expected in Big D next year.