8/28 Sleeper of the Day: Arian Foster

RB ARIAN FOSTER, Texans

I see this guy as an ideal RB3. He's got the potential to be a steal, but if he falls flat on his face it won't absolutely kill you.

Foster, a rookie in 2009, didn't get a carry until mid-December, and it wasn't until a few games later that he really got rolling. Then he couldn't be stopped. He rumbled for 97 yards and a TD on 19 carries in Week 16 against Miami, then sliced up the Patriots for 119 yards and 2 TDs on 20 carries in Week 17.

The Texans had been searching for a ground game all year behind a disappointing rotation of Chris Brown, Ryan Moats and major fantasy bust Steve Slaton, and Foster was arguably their most effective back, the only one to average more than 4 yards a carry. Yet Houston decided to go out and draft big Ben Tate from Auburn in the second round to compete for a starting position.

The good news for Foster is Tate suffered a season-ending ankle injury this preseason, so the job is his to lose. He's shown he can compete at the NFL level, but since those big performances came during the traditional fantasy playoffs and/or championship week last year, a lot of owners might not have noticed them. Couple that with the heavy preseason touting of Tate by a lot of publications, and you a have a recipe for a fantasy sleeper. Start looking for Foster in the fifth or sixth round.

Photo by The Associated Press

Hot pickups: Week 9

FIVE STARS (Out of five)

RB JAMAAL CHARLES, Chiefs: We've liked Charles for a while now around these parts, and he finally has a chance to show you why this week. Larry Johnson (suspension) is out this week, and if Charles takes this opportunity and runs with it there's a possibility LJ's days as the Chiefs' starter are over. This week's matchup is certainly in Charles' favor, as the Jaguars were just gashed by Chris Johnson last week.


FOUR STARS

RB Ryan Moats, Texans: A 23-carry, 126-yard, 3-TD performance cannot be ignored, even if it comes against the Buffalo Bills. Starter Steve Slaton's fumbilitis finally sent him to the bench last week, and Moats filled in beautifully. He probably hasn't supplanted Slaton as the No. 1 back at this point, but he's at least earned a larger role in the Texans' offense and should get his fair share of work this week at Indianapolis.


THREE STARS

TE Fred Davis, Redskins: Davis caught 8 passes for 78 yards and a TD two weeks ago against Philly with starter Chris Cooley on the sideline and is a decent replacement for those who've been rocked by injuries to Cooley or Owen Daniels of Houston.

TWO STARS

WR Malcom Floyd, Chargers: San Diego's release of Chris Chambers opens up more playing time for Floyd, a 6-foot-6 playmaker in a pass-heavy offense. Intriguing.

Week 8 Recap

Some random fantasy thoughts while tuning into the Fox Favre Cam ....

- Could be a great time to trade Brett Favre if you drafted him as your backup and have a capable No. 1 guy. I think his 4-TD game against his old team Sunday may end up being his high-water mark, stats-wise, this year, and he'll inevitably slow down and cool off as the season wears on.

- Hard to believe Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards and two TDs and wasn't the best running back on the field Sunday in Tennessee. Chris Johnson laid the hammer down with 228 rushing yards and two TDs of his own. Those who drafted Matt Forte ahead of either of these guys could only watch with tears in their eyes.

- Speaking of Forte, the Bears RB justified his presence on your roster for another week (90 yards, 2 TDs vs. Cleveland), but he'll be hard-pressed for an encore against the Cardinals' run D this week.

- Michael Turner has now scored in six straight games (8 TDs total). The streak will continue in Week 9 against Washington.

- Did Ryan Moats (126 yards, 3 TDs vs. Buffalo) just kill Steve Slaton's fantasy value? It's very possible ... see this week's Hot Pickups for more.

- Tony Romo (3 TDs) appears to have gotten back on track, mostly thanks to the emergence of Miles Austin as a fantasy star. The real litmus test for the boy wonder comes in the next two weeks on the road against Philly and Green Bay.

- Your allegiance to Steven Jackson hopefully paid off with 145 yards and his first rushing TD of the year Sunday against Detroit. Give the guy credit for playing hard and churning out the yardage despite the Rams' ineptitude.

- Joseph Addai threw more TD passes than Peyton Manning in Week 8. No need to worry about Peyton though - he's usually good for 1 or 2 of these TD-free games in a season, but you'll get more than your money's worth from him for the rest of the year. He could throw 4 against Houston this week.

- Eli Manning seems to be in one of his annual slumps, but he's probably worth sticking with as your No. 2 (he's thrown at least 1 TD every week) unless there's a more attractive free-agent option.

-Ray Rice has scored a TD or rushed for 100 yards in each of the past 5 weeks.

- DeAngelo Williams rushes for 158 yards, Jonathan Stewart scores two TDs. Can't have your cake and eat it too if you drafted a Panthers running back.

Week 4 recap

Some random thoughts ...

- Rashard Mendenhall (above) finally had that coming-out party I and many others predicted (29 carries, 165 yards, 2 TDs subbing for starter Willie Parker vs. San Diego). But did you have the patience to hold onto him through the first three weeks of the season? I'm guessing not, especially after Week 3's embarrassment, in which he got zero carries because he hasn't learned the playbook. The Steelers have a legit RB controversy on their hands entering Sunday's game against Detroit, and Mendenhall must be owned.

- Good to see Matt Forte (121 yards, TD) finally look like a first-round fantasy draft choice. The Lions will do that for you.

- No need to worry too much about using Kevin Smith on a weekly basis. Although he only managed 30 rushing yards against a tough Bears D, the Lions had enough confidence in him (despite a sore shoulder) to give him 19 carries, including goal-line touches, and he responded with two short TDs. That's enough to make him a borderline No. 2 this week even though he'll be running against the Steelers.

- You better believe Cleveland's Jerome Harrison will be on my Hot Pickups list this week after his 121 yards against Cincinnati, the season-ending injury to one of my big sleeper picks, James Davis, and Jamal Lewis' creakiness.

- Chances are if you drafted the Panthers' Steve Smith this summer, someone in your league probably made a dumb joke about how "you mean the GIANTS' Steve Smith, right?" and everyone had a big laugh. Well, they aren't laughing now, not after the New York WR caught his third and fourth TD passes of the season on Sunday and the Panthers star has yet to hit the end zone. Now, the original Steve Smith could still end up being more valuable for fantasy purposes, but he's already in the hole, and the Giants' Smith faces Oakland this week. Keep starting him.

- Continue to start Mike Sims-Walker (7 catches, 91 yards, 2 TDs), along with every receiver facing the Titans secondary. Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Dallas Clark, you're on deck!

- Tony Romo (255 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) gets one more chance to show me something against the awful Chiefs this week before I come up with a Plan B for my starting QB.

- Steve Slaton (89 total yards, 1 rush TD, 1 receiving TD, 1 fumble lost) is trying to work his way back into fantasy owners' hearts. Have another productive game against Arizona this week, Steve, and maybe you'll win us back for good.

Photo by The Associated Press

Week 2 recap

Plenty of monster (and not-so-monster) performances to dissect from Week 2:

-Hats off to Tennessee's Chris Johnson for looking very much like a top-3 running back after a lackluster Week 1: 16 carries, 197 yards, 2 TDs; 9 catches, 87 yards, TD. Just an awesome performance from a super-talented player.

-Another Johnson came up big Sunday, too: Houston's Andre Johnson, in the same game (10 catches, 149 yards, 2 TDs). I had the pleasure of starting both of them on the same team in one of my leagues. I won.

- Things aren't going as well for Houston's Steve Slaton, who now has 51 total rushing yards in two games and 0 TDs. The good news is after opening the year against two challenging defenses, things should get a little easier in the coming weeks (Jacksonville, Oakland, Arizona).

- Frank Gore actually broke the 200-yard barrier (207 on just 16 carries) and scored twice. He also caught 5 passes for 39 yards for good measure and put the league on notice that the Niners' run game is no joke.

- Jake Delhomme wasn't great against Atlanta but he'll hold onto his starting job for the time being, which is good news for Steve Smith (8 catches, 131 yards) and his owners.

- Drew Brees halved last week's TD output but was still excellent (311 yards, 3 TDs), utilizing all his available weapons. And Mike Bell continues to run well (17 carries, 86 yards, TD) with Pierre Thomas on the shelf.

- Big effort from Cedric Benson for the Bengals (29 carries, 141 yards), but don't get too excited - he's got some brutal matchups on the horizon (Pittsburgh twice, Baltimore twice and Chicago) in the next seven weeks.

- Aaron Rodgers hasn't lit it up the way I expected - two TDs in two games now. It doesn't help when you're sacked 5 times and your best WR, Greg Jennings, is held catchless. Here's hoping Rodgers and the Packers can do some damage against St. Louis.

- Buffalo's Fred Jackson is the real deal (163 rush yards, 25 receiving yards) and is a must-start next week against New Orleans. Does Marshawn Lynch HAVE to come back?

- Philip Rivers did just fine without a running game (436 yards, 2 TDs). Does LaDainian Tomlinson HAVE to come back?

When stars refuse to shine

I know a bunch of people are bummed by their first- or second-round pick's performance in Week 1. I'm talking about guys like:

Chris Johnson (57 yards, 0 TDs)

Michael Turner (65 yards, 0 TDs)

Matt Forte (55 yards, 0 TDs)

Steve Smith (21 yards, 0 TDs)

Andre Johnson (35 yards, 0 TDs)

Steve Slaton (17 yards, 0 TDs)

Clinton Portis (62 yards, 0 TDs)

Brandon Jacobs (46 yards, 0 TDs)

Anquan Boldin (19 yards, 0 TDs)

and

Steven Jackson (67 yards, 0 TDs)

Those performances were all tough to swallow. But one of the worst mistakes you can make is to overreact to one game. There were reasons for all of those disappointments , from tough matchups (C. Johnson vs. Pittsburgh, Portis vs. the Giants, Slaton and A. Johnson vs. the Jets) to lingering injuries (Boldin) to poor offensive gameplans (Forte) to awful QB play (Smith). But you were willing to spend a high pick and build your team around all of those guys a week ago, so there's no need to go flipping out and totally writing off the season. All of those players are still studs and will serve you well in the weeks ahead.

2008 fantasy football awards

As we flip the calendar to 2009, let us reflect on the fantasy season that was. Touchdowns were scored, championships were won and lost, and grown men and women spent the past four months arguing and obsessing over imaginary football teams.

Isn’t fantasy great?

Here are some players who deserve special recognition before we close the book on the 2008 fantasy football season:

MVP AWARD
Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner rushed for more yards, but DeAngelo Williams of the Carolina Panthers ran for a league-high 18 TDs and had some truly monster games down the stretch when we needed him most. And he wasn’t drafted in most leagues until at least the fourth round!


BUST OF THE YEAR AWARD
Maybe it’s unfair, Tom Brady gets the dishonor suffering a devastating knee injury in Week 1. If you made Brady your first pick, here’s what you got out of him: seven completions, 76 yards, zero TDs and a season of what ifs.

2008 ALL FANTASY TEAM
QB: Drew Brees; RB1: DeAngelo Williams; RB2: Michael Turner; WR1: Anquan Boldin; WR2: Larry Fitzgerald; TE: Tony Gonzalez; K: Stephen Gostkowski; DEF: Baltimore Ravens.

PICKUP OF THE YEAR AWARD


Matt Cassel’s own family members wouldn’t have drafted him this year, but the former unknown finished the season as a top-10 fantasy QB filling in for Brady.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR AWARD
Matt Forte and Steve Slaton share the honors after both rushed for more than 1,000 yards and scored eight TDs in their debut seasons.

FUTURE FANTASY STUD AWARD
Texas Tech’s Michael Crabtree could be a fantasy No. 2 by the end of 2009, provided he winds up in the right offense with the right QB. Oakland Raiders, you’re on the clock.

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD
Thomas Jones rushed for 13 TDs for the New York Jets — almost doubling his total from the previous two seasons.

MOST DANGEROUS PLAYER AWARD
Let’s say your team has a comfortable lead, but your opponent has one player left in the Monday night game. Who do you fear most? For me it’s Brian Westbrook, a versatile little son-of-a-gun who’s capable of a four-TD effort on any given day. And I should know: I went head-to-head with a Westbrook owner twice in one league this season, and the dude scored SEVEN TDs against me in two games.

ONE-WEEK WONDER AWARD
Brady Quinn enjoyed a promising debut as an NFL starter Nov. 9 against Denver, throwing for 239 yards and two TDs. Then he failed to find the end zone in the next two games before suffering a season-ending injury.

BEST PREDICTIONS BY YOURS TRULY
I was high on Kevin Smith and Roddy White as preseason sleepers; I jumped on the bandwagons of Matt Cassel, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Ryan and Tim Hightower early; I wasn’t buying the Darren McFadden or David Garrard hype; I predicted a huge bounce-back by Donovan McNabb (four TDs) in Week 13 against Arizona when everyone said he was done.

WORST PREDICTIONS BY YOURS TRULY
I believed Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards could form the nucleus of a fantasy champion; I picked Cincinnati Bengals tight end Ben Utecht (who?) as one of my top sleepers; I didn’t have Steve Slaton ranked in my top 50 preseason running backs.


RISING STOCK
Kevin Smith, Tyler Thigpen, Chris Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson.


FALLING STOCK
Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Tony Romo, Reggie Bush, Braylon Edwards, Joseph Addai, Terrell Owens.

SUPER EARLY TOP 10 FOR 2009
1. Adrian Peterson; 2. Michael Turner; 3. Drew Brees; 4. Matt Forte; 5. Chris Johnson; 6. Brian Westbrook; 7. DeAngelo Williams; 8. Randy Moss; 9. Brandon Jacobs; 10. LaDainian Tomlinson

Week 15: Who to start, sit in playoffs

So you’re in the playoffs.

Congratulations. Would you like a medal?

Fact is, making the fantasy football postseason is a nice accomplishment, but this is no time to rest on your laurels and pat yourself on the back. There’s more work to be done and tough decisions to make before you can call yourself a champ.

Here’s some advice to help you keep this thing rolling:

START ’EM


g RB Dominic Rhodes vs. Detroit: Sure, Joseph Addai is the Indianapolis Colts’ “starter,” but he’s a bit banged-up, and Rhodes has seen an increased workload the past few weeks. Plus, he’s playing the Lions, who let another “backup,” Chester Taylor, have a nice day last week.

g RB Derrick Ward at Dallas: Brandon Jacobs says he’ll play despite a sore knee, but I could see the New York Giants giving Ward lots of touches to help keep the big guy fresh for the postseason.

g RB Sammy Morris at Oakland: He’s back in the mix as the New England Patriots’ top tailback, so you can assume at least 10 touches and perhaps a score like the past two weeks.

g RB Steve Slaton vs. Tennessee: Don’t let the Titans’ run defense scare you from using a kid who’s rushed for 479 yards and three TDs in his past four games. Oh, and he had 116 yards and a TD the first time his Houston Texans played the Colts this year.

g QB Tyler Thigpen vs. San Diego: After a so-so effort last week at Denver (187 yards, TD), raise your expectations against a pretty bad Chargers pass defense.

g QB Donovan McNabb vs. Cleveland: He’s elevated his game since his competence and brainpower were called into question a few weeks ago. Expect him to light up a Browns team in disarray.

g WR Reggie Williams vs. Green Bay: The Jacksonville Jaguars receiver is at least a No. 3 receiver this week given Matt Jones’ suspension and the Packers’ general ineptitude the past few weeks.

g WR Devin Hester vs. New Orleans: The Chicago Bears’ most dangerous weapon could break off a few big plays against a Saints’ D that’s given up 20 receiving TDs.

g WR Brandon Marshall at Carolina: The Denver Broncos are running out of running backs, so they might opt to throw it a lot against a secondary that’s been torched to the tune of 274, 293 and 298 yards the past three weeks.

SIT ’EM

g RB Steven Jackson vs. Seattle: I understand starting him if you don’t have a better option, but Jackson should no longer be treated like a No. 1 fantasy back. His lack of involvement in the passing game and his so-so rushing totals have been killing teams lately.

g RB Willie Parker at Baltimore: I don’t like the timeshare situation unfolding with Pittsburgh Steelers teammate Mewelde Moore, and I certainly don’t like the matchup.

g RB Larry Johnson vs. San Diego: After a poor effort last week at Denver (11 carries, 36 yards), lower your expectations against a pretty good run-stopping Chargers defense.

g RB Tashard Choice vs. New York Giants: The Dallas Cowboys rookie will be a popular pickup this week after what he did against a tough Pittsburgh Steelers run defense (88 rushing yards, 78 receiving yards). But if Marion Barber can go and wants to shut Jerry Jones up, Choice returns to relative obscurity.

g QB Matt Schaub vs. Tennessee: Don’t overreact to last week’s air raid on Green Bay. Schaub was terrible against the Titans in Week 3 (188 yards, zero TDs, three interceptions) and isn’t worth the risk this week.

g QB Ben Roethlisberger at Baltimore: If your idea of a good fantasy outing for your QB is about 200 yards and maybe a TD, Big Ben is your guy this week. If you have another QB on your roster who’s capable of more, plant Roethlisberger on your bench for this slugfest.

g WR Laveranues Coles vs. Buffalo: The veteran has combined for three catches and seven yards in his past two games. Do you dare start him this week?

g WR Domenik Hixon at Dallas: Forget about last week’s costly drop, as bad as it looked. It was unfair to expect the guy to just step in and replace Plaxico Burress, and he’s been too inconsistent to warrant a start at this point.

g WR Chris Chambers at Kansas City: He’s been an afterthought in the San Diego Chargers’ offense lately, with just one catch in the past two weeks. Sure, the matchup is good this Sunday, but you can do better.