8/27 Bust of the Day: Chad Ochocinco

I'm torn over everybody's favorite reality star. On one hand, it's almost hard to take him seriously as a football player because of all the Twittering and self-promoting off the field and silliness on it. He's also 32 years old and appears to be past his prime, when he was catching 90-plus passes a year with regularity.

On the other hand, Ocho did have 72 receptions, 1,047 yards and 9 TDs in 2009, numbers that are nothing to sniff at and which represented a bounce-back year for him. The flip side is that 2008 was a real clunker - 53 catches, 540 yards (10.2 yards a reception) and  just 4 TDs.

So what can we expect this year? Ocho's still the Bengals' No. 1 option, but his supporting cast is much improved with the additions of Terrell Owens, Antonio Bryant and rookie Jordan Shipley. Can QB Carson Palmer keep them all happy? Will Palmer's arm hold up all year? Or will Cincinnati lean on workhorse back Cedric Benson?

My gut tells me Ochocinco still has some life left in him, his rapport with Palmer will still be there, and the addition of T.O., while a potential headache-inducer, will also loosen up some coverages. I think he'll have fantasy value. But I believe people will overpay for him on draft day because of his name and past reputation alone. He's being selected, on average, as the 15th WR off the board in ESPN leagues right now, which sounds OK, but I wouldn't go any higher than that. I could see younger wideouts like Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace, Pierre Garcon or Michael Crabtree outperforming him, or at least equaling his best-case-scenario stats, while coming at a lower price.

Ochocinco's a low-end No. 2 for me, and a risky one at that.

T.O. to Bengals; should you care?

Remember this?



And this?



And this?



Of course you do. That's the reason there's so much attention on the Bengals signing a 36-year-old wide receiver who had 800 receiving yards and 5 TDs last year.

Those numbers aren't really popcorn-worthy, and Terrell Owens is no longer the dominating fantasy force he once was. But when you consider he managed the aforementioned stats last year with some of the stiffs Buffalo trotted out at QB throwing him the ball, plus the fact that he had 10 receptions of 25 yards or longer last year (and the Bengals as a team had just 12), there's reason to believe T.O. could find his niche in Cincinnati.

Will he be a fantasy No. 1 or 2 WR this year? No. Will he have a hard time getting consistent targets in a crowded Bengals receiving corps that includes Chad Ochocinco, Antonio Bryant, rookie Jordan Shipley and others? Probably. Will he ruin the team chemistry with a tantrum or other distraction? Quite possibly.

But will Owens benefit from having Carson Palmer at QB and produce enough big plays to be a borderline No. 3 fantasy receiver? I might be willing to make that gamble on draft day.

Sit 'Em: Week 11

- QB JAY CUTLER vs. Philadelphia: Let's face it, the kid's shaping up to be a fantasy bust this season, and while he's certain to bounce back from last week's 0-TD, 5-INT abomination, you've hopefully discovered a better option by now. This matchup just isn't in his favor.

- RB MARION BARBER vs. Washington: Bench the Barbarian? It's not that I don't like the matchup, it's just that the Cowboys aren't utilizing him the way they should, which means you're not getting the type of production you should be out of a No. 1 or 2 RB. The numbers are solid but they're not extraordinary. For instance, Barber's only topped 100 rushing yards once this year (in fact, he's only topped 80 once), back in Week 2 - which also happens to be the only game in which he got more than 15 carries. I'm just saying there might be more exciting options on your bench or on the waiver wire this week.

- WR DONNIE AVERY vs. Arizona: You may be inclined to start Avery in Week 11, given his 2-TD game last Sunday and the appeal of facing the Cardinals' pass defense (third-most passing yards allowed per game). But Avery's stats have been all over the place this year, and he's followed up just about every good performance with a 1-catch game this year. There's just too much risk involved in starting a Ram not named Steven Jackson unless you're really in a pinch.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- I didn't expect much from Julius Jones (2 carries, 10 yards), but I didn't foresee the bruised lung that would knock him out of the game.

- Carson Palmer totaled just 178 yards and didn't throw a TD pass in the Bengals' win over the Steelers. Boo yah.

- Just two catches and 24 yards for Torry Holt. Nailed it.

Sit 'Em: Week 10

- RB JULIUS JONES at Arizona: Yeah, he scored last week and racked up some yards on receptions (6 for 78), but this ain't Detroit - the Cards have the league's fourth-stingiest rush defense - and Jones posted a clunker when the Seahawks hosted Arizona last month (5 carries, 5 yards).

- QB CARSON PALMER at Pittsburgh: You can pretty much always pencil in Palmer for about 200 yards and a TD, but this doesn't look like a matchup where he can really do anything special, fantasy-wise. He had 183 yards and a TD when the teams met in Week 3 and should do about the same, so you may want to go with a better option at QB if you have one.

- WR TORRY HOLT at New York Jets: The old pro has caught only 6 balls for 54 yards combined in the past two weeks and hasn't found the end zone yet this season. Expect the No. 2-ranked Jets pass defense to put the clamps on him again.

LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Matt Ryan was 17 for 24 for 135 yards, a TD and an INT against Washington as the Falcons leaned heavily on Michael Turner (just as I predicted).

- Tashard Choice had only 3 carries on Sunday night, but one of them happened to come out of the Wildcat formation at the goal line and went for a TD. Boo!

- Sam Aiken had 2 catches for 17 yards and was a fantasy nonfactor.

Photo by The Associated Press

Sit 'Em: Week 4

- FRED JACKSON at Dolphins: Freddie J has been a fantasy revelation so far, but he's got two major strikes against him this week: Miami's defense is one of the league's toughest against the run (66 yards allowed per game), and Marshawn Lynch returns from suspension this week. Hold onto Jackson, but sit him this week and wait to see how the Bills' timeshare pans out.

- MATT CASSEL vs. Giants: Let's think about this: He's coming off a game where he threw for 90 yards, his top target (Dwayne Bowe) has a hamstring injury and might not even play, and he's facing the league's top pass defense. It all adds up to keeping Cassel on your bench, unless you're desperate.

- TJ HOUSHMANDZADEH at Colts: He's a borderline play in PPR leagues this week, but even that's troublesome with Seneca Wallace under center (without Walter Jones protecting him) for the Seahawks. TJ hasn't topped 62 yards or scored a TD yet this season.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS:

- Carson Palmer led the Bengals to a big upset of the Steelers, but it wasn't helpful for fantasy purposes (183 yards, 1 TD), as I predicted.

- Joseph Addai got the job done (13 carries, 63 yards and a receiving TD) against Arizona. But Donald Brown (112 total yards) won't back down in his push for more playing time.

- Roy Williams had his highest reception total of the season (a whopping 4, for 75 yards) against Carolina but still hasn't justified his lofty draft status.

Sit 'Em: Week 3

- CARSON PALMER vs. Pittsburgh: Carson's had his share of trouble with the Steelers over the years (who hasn't?). He didn't play against them last year but threw just 1 TD against Pittsburgh in two games in 2007. And the Steelers' D is pretty good again.

- JOSEPH ADDAI vs. Arizona: This dude's act is getting old: 74 yards rushing in two games. He also had only 6 carries on Monday night against Miami. And the Cardinals' run defense has been quite good so far. Get ready, Donald Brown.

- ROY WILLIAMS vs. Carolina: Is this guy really a No. 1 WR? Is he a fantasy starter? Based on last week's one-catch effort, the answer right now is no. Put him on the shelf until further notice.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS:

- Devery Henderson had a ho-hum 3 catches for 71 yards last week.

- Pierre Thomas had only one catch for -4 yards and still hasn't carried the ball this year. His knee injury has made him a huge bust so far.

- Ben Roethlisberger threw for 221 yards and 1 TD against Chicago.

How does Vick fit into the fantasy world?

Michael Vick continues to grab all the headlines and will be perhaps the biggest story in the NFL as the season opens. But that doesn't mean he should command too much attention from fantasy players.

Vick's signing with the Eagles is the kind of storyline fans and pundits will be talking about for weeks and months, but for fantasy purposes it's just another transaction. No need to go making a major overhaul to your pre-draft rankings. Sure, Vick's an intriguing late-round sleeper because Philly figures to use him in the wildly popular "Wildcat" role that often results in big plays. He gives the Eagles another skilled player who can certainly be an effective runner/passer/receiver in their West Coast offense. But honestly, how many touches can he get in an offense that also includes Pro Bowl performers like Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook and young playmakers DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin?

The idea behind the Wildcat is to utilize the elements of surprise and unpredictability, so how consistently would Vick be used anyway? At least other presumed Wildcat players around the league - Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams in Miami, Percy Harvin in Minnesota - will be taking more snaps at their regular positions throughout the game, whereas Vick would only be stepping onto the field at a few strategic points when the Eagles use the package.

Make no mistake, McNabb is the starting QB. This won't be an even timeshare. Of course, taking into account McNabb's history, there is a decent chance of him getting injured at some point and Vick perhaps taking over, but that's not something you can bank on. And even then, the Eagles do have a supposed QB of the future, Kevin Kolb (although he's hurt right now). And assuming Vick is listed on Philly's roster as a QB and is eligible at that position in fantasy leagues, it's hard to justify taking him as your No. 2 fantasy QB when you could instead own another starter in the league - say, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Matt Hasselbeck, etc. - who will see the field far more often and produce many more points on a more consistent basis.

If your league allows three QBs, by all means, take Vick. If your league allows really deep rosters with open bench spots from any position, Vick's your guy. If the Eagles for some reason use Vick exclusively as a RB/WR, snatch him up. The potential is there for some cheap fantasy points. But good luck predicting when they might come.

The true concern for fantasy purposes should rest with anyone who owns an Eagles skill player. Every time Vick touches the ball he'll be taking away potential points from Westbrook, Jackson and co. And more alarmingly, how will the signing affect McNabb's psyche? You could look at it as yet another slap in the face for a franchise QB who's been maligned by his team's fans for years, witnessed the franchise draft a potential replacement (Kolb) and who was benched by his coach last year for poor play. Now McNabb's got to deal with the circus that follows such a publicized move, and the guy may have to take a backseat to Vick at key points in the game and give up snaps. There's potential here for bad blood and fan backlash if the Eagles, clearly in a win-now-at-all-costs mode, aren't winning. And instability is never a good thing for fantasy production. Maybe it's no big deal, but it's something to think about