Week 1 Start 'Em: Harvin, Forte, Wells

It’s time once again for the Fantasy Focus weekly features, Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em. The concept is pretty simple: Each week, in preparation for that Sunday’s action, I’ll offer three guys I recommend for your starting lineup, then three guys I think you should stay away from.

I’m not going to waste your time, or mine, by telling you to start Peyton Manning and sit Sam Bradford. Duh. Instead I’ll be focusing on borderline guys, backups, flex players – because that’s where fantasy matchups are won or lost.

Just to keep me honest, I’ll also check in on my previous week’s picks so you can track my recommendations and hold me to them. Sound good? Alright, then here we go:





- PERCY HARVIN at Saints: Harvin says his doctors have found the cause of the debilitating migraines that have plagued him for years and put his 2010 season in jeopardy. The Vikings aren't sharing this medical breakthrough with the millions of other migraine sufferers, but I guess we can let that slide if Harvin can contribute to our fantasy teams. The Vikes seem to have no doubt that will be the case, as they traded away kick returner Darius Reynaud to give the job to Harvin. Minnesota would be wise to go to Harvin early and often with Sidney Rice on the shelf. He's an optimal flex play this week.

- MATT FORTE vs. Lions: If only Forte could've played Detroit 16 times last year. The Bears RB only cracked the 100-yard mark twice in an otherwise dismal 2009, but both came against the Lions: 121 yards and a TD in Week 4, 101 yards in Week 17. I'm not totally sold on a Forte comeback in 2010, but this is one week I'm buying.

- BEANIE WELLS vs. Rams: I'm still not sure how coach Ken Whisenhunt envisions splitting up the work this year between Cardinals RBs Beanie and Tim Hightower. But with Derek Anderson piloting the offense (yikes!) I expect to see a heavy workload for Wells. In his two meetings with St. Louis last year, Beanie ran for 74 yards and a TD and 64 yards and a TD, so we could very well see a repeat.

Matt Leinart out, Derek Anderson in?

Matt Leinart's out in Arizona. Derek Anderson's in.

At least that's the early indication from Cardinals camp, with reports surfacing that Leinart is on the trading block after failing to grab the starting QB job.

Leinart wasn't a very intriguing fantasy prospect this year thanks to some poor showings in preseason action and an ongoing clash with head coach Ken Whisenhunt. The former USC party guy has had multiple chances to prove he's the Cardinals' answer at QB but failed. Leinart's only fantasy appeal came from the fact he'd be throwing to All-Pro talent Larry Fitzgerald and a few other solid receivers in Arizona. But with Leinart on the trading block - and facing the possibility of being cut by Saturday - it's looking like he'll end up riding the pine somewhere else to start 2010.

That leads us to the Cardinals' next best option at QB, Anderson, a man last seen getting run out of town in Cleveland. Think about that for a second. CLEVELAND didn't want him! That's how bad Anderson was last year (3 TDs, 10 INTs, 42.1 QB rating) and in 2008 (9 TDs, 8 INTs, 66.5 rating). But it's easy to forget DA had an improbable Pro Bowl season in 2008 with the Browns, when he threw for more than 3,700 yards and 29 TDs with 19 INTs. He also helped WR Braylon Edwards join him on the AFC Pro Bowl squad and led Cleveland to a 10-6 record.

Alright, so he's no Bernie Kosar. Derek Anderson isn't even Ken Anderson. But maybe DA still has a few tricks up his sleeve and could come close to reproducing those '07 stats. Having Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston, Early Doucet, Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells around him will help. Do I think you need to run out and add Anderson to your team? Not so fast. The situation in Arizona is still too volatile. But Anderson's somebody to keep tabs on and possibly consider at the first sign of trouble if you're in the market for a fantasy No. 2.

2010 RB Rankings

2010 RUNNING BACK RANKINGS


This year's top four are more or less no-brainers for me, but then you'll spot a few surprises. I have Frank Gore of the run-heavy 49ers, the rejuvenated Michael Turner and the always dangerous Steven Jackson in the next tier of runners. I do have my annual concerns about S-Jax, who still has a weak supporting cast around him.

Next up are a few feature backs I expect to see a ton of carries, Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Grant, and a surprise at No. 10, Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs. The breakout star of the second half of 2009 is going a lot later than many of the other backs on this list. but I believe he has the talent to produce like a top-10 RB.

I have Arian Foster ranked higher than many other experts, but with the season-ending injury to Ben Tate and the Texans' glaring need for a feature back, I think the rookie has a real opportunity in 2010.

You may also be surprised to see Michael Bush ahead of Reggie Bush, and I don't know if that says more about how much I like Michael or how much I dislike Reggie this year. Either way, I think they're best suited to be No. 4 fantasy backs in most leagues. Move Reggie up a bit in PPR leagues, of course.

I'm pretty high on Ahmad Bradshaw this year because I like his talent, I believe he's healthy, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him outperform Brandon Jacobs this year for the Giants.

I don't believe the Cardinals will be stubborn enough to favor Tim Hightower over Beanie Wells for the majority of 2010, and I've ranked the two players accordingly.

Looking for a deep, deep sleeper? The camp reports haven't been great and he's battling a shoulder injury, but I'm a fan of Steelers rookie Jonathan Dwyer. It might take him a year, but I think he can evolve into a good goal-line back. Stay tuned.

1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Ray Rice
5. Frank Gore
6. Michael Turner
7. Steven Jackson
8. Rashard Mendenhall
9. Ryan Grant
10. Jamaal Charles
11. Cedric Benson
12. DeAngelo Williams
13. Ryan Matthews
14. Shonn Greene
15. Beanie Wells
16. Knowshon Moreno
17. Pierre Thomas
18. Jonathan Stewart
19. Felix Jones
20. Ronnie Brown
21. LeSean McCoy
22. Joseph Addai
23. Arian Foster
24. Brandon Jacobs
25. Justin Forsett
26. Matt Forte
27. Ricky Williams
28. Jahvid Best
29. C.J. Spiller
30. Marion Barber
31. Ahmad Bradshaw
32. Jerome Harrison
33. Clinton Portis
34. Michael Bush
35. Reggie Bush
36. Donald Brown
37. Fred Jackson
38. Cadillac Williams
39. Thomas Jones
40. LaDainian Tomlinson
41. Darren Sproles
42. Darren McFadden
43. Montario Hardesty
44. Tim Hightower
45. Steve Slaton
46. Chester Taylor
47. Laurence Maroney
48. Willis McGahee
49. Correll Buckhalter
50. Kevin Smith
51. Anthony Dixon
52. Mike Bell
53. Fred Taylor
54. Rashad Jennings
55. Toby Gerhart
56. Larry Johnson
57. Tashard Choice
58. Bernard Scott
59. Leon Washington
60. Jonathan Dwyer

8/23 Bust of the Day: Larry Fitzgerald

WR LARRY FITZGERALD, Cardinals

I don't doubt Fitzgerald's talent. I'm not saying he won't be a No. 1 fantasy wideout this season. But to quote just about every character in the Star Wars movies, I have a bad feeling about this.

Maybe it's the fact Matt Leinart is taking over the reins as Cards QB from the prolific Kurt Warner. Maybe it's the sprained right knee Fitzgerald's already dealing with this preseason. Maybe it's the residue of the Madden Curse that never really struck him last year (but cost co-cover boy Troy Polamalu most of his season). You know what they say about karma ...

But seriously, there are plenty of reasons to worry about Fitzgerald this year. He's not going to have Anquan Boldin around anymore to put pressure on opposing secondaries. And you may remember Fitzgerald's last subpar season (946 yards, 6 TDs in 13 games in 2006) just happened to be the year Arizona was trying to break in Leinart as their starting QB. Now, Leinart is a better QB today then he was as a rookie (presumably) - but can he replace Warner's production? Will more targets come Fitzgerald's way with Boldin out of the picture, or will Arizona just lean more heavily on Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower in the running game?

That's an awful lot of question marks for a WR who I've seen go in the first round in some mock drafts. I still don't have a problem making Fitzgerald my No. 1 WR ... but I'm not sure I'd take him over Andre Johnson or Randy Moss, or even Calvin Johnson. I'm labeling him a bust because I don't think he's the shoe-in for 1,300 yards or double-digit TDs many are tabbing him to be.

Sit 'Em: Week 15

- RB MATT FORTE at Baltimore: Even if you've somehow managed to limp into the playoffs with Forte as one of your two starting RBs, you know that outside of a handful of games against the league's worst teams, he's been nothing more than average. And he'll be just average against a Ravens D that hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 9. If you have a better alternative, bench the Bear.

- RB LeSEAN McCOY vs. San Francisco: Instead of being the second coming of Brian Westbrook, Shady has been darn near worthless the past few weeks. Besides, FB Leonard Weaver has been the bigger playmaker and gets the carries at the goal line for the Eagles. Don't expect much from McCoy against the league's fifth-ranked run defense.

- WR PERCY HARVIN at Carolina: The rookie sat out last week with migranes, and the trend (thankfully) in the NFL this year has been to be cautious with these kinds of ailments. Harvin was limited in practice Friday, and while the odds seem to favor him playing, he could end up a late scratch. With the Vikings playing the Sunday night game, that could wreck your plans this playoff weekend. Are you willing to take that risk?


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Beanie Wells surprised everybody with 15 carries for 79 yards and a TD, maybe surpassing Tim Hightower on the depth chart in the process.

- Steve Breaston had another 1-catch game. Warned you.

- Santana Moss had 4 catches for 58 yardszzzzzzzzz.

Sit 'Em: Week 14

- RB BEANIE WELLS at San Francisco: The rookie's had a rough two weeks - he hasn't reached 30 yards on the ground in the past two games - and the Niners own a top-5 rush defense. Beanie's benched this week (but I'm licking my chops over the next two matchups with Detroit and St. Louis).

- WR STEVE BREASTON at San Francisco: I just can't trust him after last week's 1-catch disaster. He's always been worth a look as a flex player when he's hot, but he's ice cold right now.

- WR SANTANA MOSS at Oakland: He hasn't given us much to get excited about this year (only 1 game with more than 75 receiving yards), and he'll likely be blanketed by Pro Bowl corner Nnamdi Asomugha on Sunday. No thanks.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Not only did Kurt Warner suit up despite recent concussion troubles, but he aired it out for 285 yards and 3 TDs in the Cardinals' surprising thrashing of the previously once-beaten Vikings. Couldn't have been more wrong.

- Brandon Jacobs was bottled up for 39 rushing yards on 13 carries as I expected. Only problem is he ran for a TD and scored another on a 74-yard catch on a screen pass nobody - including the Cowboys defense - expected. Wrong again.

- Willis McGahee vultured another TD to complete a trifecta of wrongness. He also had 4 carries for -4 yards.

Start 'Em: Week 12

- QB MATT HASSELBECK at St. Louis: The veteran's coming off a rough day in Minnesota (zero TDs, 1 INT in a 35-9 loss), but the Rams' secondary should be the perfect tonic.

- RB JASON SNELLING vs. Tampa Bay: The guy's scored three times in the past two games since starter Michael Turner got hurt, and he'll get the start again Sunday. You have to like the matchup, too, against a Bucs defense that's been torched by the likes of Pierre Thomas (92 yards), Rickey Williams (102 yards), Ronnie Brown (82 yards, TD) and Ryan Grant (96 yards, TD) in recent weeks.

- WR CHRIS CHAMBERS at San Diego: He's got 249 yards and two TDs in three games since becoming a Chief, and now he faces the team that cut him. I like it.

LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Beanie Wells didn't quite have a career day against the Rams, but 74 yards and a TD will do the trick.

- Another rookie, LeSean McCoy, DID have a career day on the ground (99 yards, TD) in Chicago.

- Santonio Holmes caught 7 passes for 86 yards but, alas, didn't catch a TD as I predicted.

Start 'Em: Week 11

- RB BEANIE WELLS at St. Louis: The rookie has had an increased workload the past five weeks and has scored 3 TDs in his past four games. He could be in line for a career day against the Rams (118 rushing yards allowed per game) if the Cardinals continue to utilize him.

- RB LeSEAN McCOY at Chicago: There's more risk than you'd think, even with Eagles starter Brian Westbrook reeling from another concussion. Shady got just 6 total touches last week (3 carries, 3 receptions), but hopefully stubborn Andy Reid will give the kid the damn ball against the 21st-ranked Bears D that just isn't scary anymore.

- WR SANTONIO HOLMES at Kansas City: Did you realize this dude hasn't scored since Week 1? How is that possible? Bold prediction: Holmes finally scores again this week against K.C.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Laurence Maroney had just 31 rushing yards on 13 carries but scored for the fourth straight game.

- Derrick Mason caught 3 balls for 78 yards but didn't reach the end zone Monday night as the Ravens surprisingly didn't go off on the Browns, scoring just 1 offensive TD.

- Kellen Winslow caught 7 passes and matched his season high for yardage (102).

Photo by The Associated Press

Hot Pickups: Week 8

FOUR STARS (Out of five)

- RB SHONN GREENE, Jets: Leon Washington's loss is Greene's gain, and the Jets have smartly morphed into a power rushing team before our eyes with a rookie QB running the offense. The rejuvenated Thomas Jones isn't going anywhere, but I think there's enough room for the two of them to be productive down the stretch (probably after this week's tough matchup against Miami).

- RB BEANIE WELLS, Cardinals: It was a bit of a mixed bag for the rookie Sunday night - he scored his first NFL TD but also lost another fumble, his third in 49 pro carries. Still, he outperformed Tim Hightower and might officially pass him on Arizona's depth chart with another good outing against Carolina.


THREE STARS

- RB JAMAAL CHARLES, Chiefs: In case you hadn't heard, Larry Johnson is at it again. Charles, one of my preseason sleepers, has been the more effective back this year again (5 yards a carry to LJ's 2.7), albeit in limited duty, and Johnson's latest antics may have finally forced K.C. into starting him after Week 8's bye. The Chiefs' line is awful, of course, but I still want to see what the little guy can do.

WR MIKE WALLACE, Steelers: The rookie from Ole Miss has made his fair share of big plays this year (17.5 yards a catch) and is coming off a big game against the Vikings (3 catches, 72 yards, TD). He's been kind of hit-or-miss, but he could be worth a start after this week's bye if you're in a pinch and rolling the dice on a TD.

QB ALEX SMITH, 49ers: It only took five years, but Smith may finally be fantasy relevant. A three-TD game coming off the bench will do that, and it's not as if there isn't talent around him (Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis, who caught those three TDs). Grab him, watch how he fares against Indianapolis this week and then plug him in against Tennessee in Week 9 if you like what you see.

Week 7 recap

- Wow, nice game, Frank Gore (13 carries, 32 yards) - welcome back, guy. Here's hoping the switch to Alex Smith at QB will help the 49ers' offense really get rolling.

- I'm not sure what a lung contusion feels like, but I'm hoping it's not bad enough to keep Andre Johnson out of a juicy matchup against the Bills this week. Dude was on quite a roll before getting hurt Sunday.

- Big-time effort from Ryan Grant (27 carries, 148 yards, TD), even if it was against the Browns. Unfortunately, up next he's got the Vikings, who held him to 51 yards a few weeks ago.

- Keep rolling, Philip Rivers (268 yards, 3 TDs vs. Kansas City). Oakland's up next.

- Steven Jackson keeps piling up the rushing yardage (134) but has yet to hit paydirt this season. That should end at Detroit this week.

- Vikings WR Sidney Rice posted another huge output (10 catches for 136 yards) and is putting up the numbers Bernard Berrian was supposed to this year. Could be in line for a third straight big game against Green Bay.

- Laurence Maroney did end up with the lion's share of the carries again for the Patriots (13) but his 43 rushing yards didn't quite live up to last week's 123 or 7.7 average. He did score a TD, but then again, who hasn't against the Bucs?

- The season-ending broken leg suffered by Leon Washington is a shame, but it's actually good news for Thomas Jones (26 carries, 121 yards, TD) and Shonn Greene (19 carries, 144 yards, TD). And just when the Jets are morphing into a running machine, they slam headfirst into the Dolphins' run defense.

- Finally, a respectable game for the Panthers' Steve Smith (6 catches, 99 yards) - this despite Jake Delhomme's 3 INTs and 56.5 passer rating. Is a QB change in Carolina's future? And will it make a difference?

- It's official: Miles Austin (6 catches, 171 yards, 2 TDs) is everything Roy Williams was supposed to be for the Cowboys, and then some. Unfortunately if you still own Roy it's probably too late to make that roster move. If it's not - you should.

- Thanks for nothing, Matt Forte (49 total yards). Do something against Cleveland this week or consider yourself dropped.

- Ricky Williams, dependable fantasy starter? Sunday's stats (9 carries, 80 yards, 3 TDs) and his season totals say yes.

- Beanie Wells had his best outing of his rookie season against the Giants (14 carries, 67 yards, TD) and appears to have supplanted Tim Hightower (4 carries, 9 yards). But be careful here - he did fumble, too, and that's the reason the Cardinals have been reluctant to use him too much.

- Could Brian Westbrook's concussion be the opening LeSean McCoy needed for fantasy stardom? Possibly, but don't get too pumped if you've had Shady sitting on your bench. McCoy's averaging only 3.6 yards a carry so far, and it wouldn't shock me to see Westbrook facing the Giants this week.

Start 'Em: Week 4

- CLINTON PORTIS vs. Bucs: There are plenty of reasons to be bummed about Portis' output so far - he hasn't surpassed 80 yards in a game or scored yet, despite playing some mediocre competition. But I wouldn't be shocked to see him do both of those against the Bucs' JV squad.

- AHMAD BRADSHAW at Chiefs: The Giants backup had his best game of the young season last Sunday against Tampa Bay (14 carries, 104 yards) and should do more damage against a KC D that's already surrendered five TDs on the ground. It doesn't sound like Bradshaw's recent ankle pain will keep him from playing, either.

- BRETT FAVRE vs. Packers: Something tells me Favre will be motivated to put on a show Monday night against his old team and coming off that Favrian (did I just coin that?) game-winner last week. Also in Brett's favor: The Pack have given up 6 passing TDs, third most in the league.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS:

- Felix Jones was putting together a monster game against Carolina before exiting with a knee injury. Still, 94 yards on 8 carries is nothing to sniff at.

- Vincent Jackson caught 5 passes for 120 yards against Miami. He's become a fantasy (and real life) No. 1 receiver.

- Two outta three ain't bad. Tim Hightower (9 carries, 22 yards; 5 catches, 39 yards) stunk it up against the Colts. But at least I was right that Beanie Wells (2 carries, -2 yards) would do nothing to threaten his job security.

Start 'Em: Week 3

Need help picking a winner this week? Read on ...



- FELIX JONES vs. Carolina: After a quiet Week 1, Jones erupted in Week 2 (96 yards, TD) and showed off the big-play potential we knew he possessed. Now he runs against a surprisingly poor Panthers rush defense, and Marion Barber (quad) might not even suit up.

- VINCENT JACKSON vs. Miami: He's scored a TD each week so far, and he and QB Philip Rivers are coming off a huge game against Baltimore. Plus, Miami has given up more than 500 yards and 4 TDs through the air in two games.

- TIM HIGHTOWER vs. Indianapolis: I still believe Beanie Wells, not Hightower, will end up the most valuable Cardinals back at season's end. But until Beanie can cure his fumbilitis (two last week), Hightower's the man. He's been involved in the passing game and gets the red-zone carries.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Percy Harvin got seven touches and scored for the second straight week. He'll be a good flex option again this week against San Fran.

- Antwaan Randle El didn't do much (4 catches, 39 yards) against the Rams, but neither did any of the other Redskins really. Despite the poor showing I'd still be tempted to use him against Detroit this week.

- Correll Buckhalter matched Knowshon Moreno's output on the ground (76 yards for Buckhalter, 75 for Moreno) on half the carries. Granted, he did have a 45-yard TD run, which will help pad the stats, but no one's complaining. Buckhalter also caught one pass for 30 yards.