Francisco Liriano: Steal of the year?

Francisco Liriano was the AL pitcher of the month for April.

He may end up being the steal of the year in fantasy.

Liriano has sparkled so far for the Twins - 4-0, 1.50 ERA, 36 Ks and 13 BBs in 36 innings. This came on the heels of the left-hander absolutely dominating winter league ball and throwing his name in the hat as a fantasy sleeper for 2010.

We all remember Liriano from that superb 2006, when he looked like the second coming of Johan Santana in a Twins uniform. Unfortunately, we also remember his 2007, which was cut short by major elbow surgery, and his ill-fated 2008 campaign (5-13, 5.80 ERA).

But now, Liriano seems to have regained that magical form as he puts the elbow troubles behind him. His velocity is back up. He hasn't allowed a homer yet this year after serving up 21 longballs in 136 innings last season. He's holding opponents to a .206 average after they raked him at a .279 clip last year. And he's getting almost twice as many ground outs as flyouts this season, a ratio similar to his breakout 2006 but one which withered the past two years.

I believe Liriano's health and consistency will hold up for the long haul this time. If you rolled the dice on him in your draft or picked him up on the waiver wire in the early going, give yourself a pat on the back and don't think about trading him at this point.


Photo by The Associated Press

Yo Johan - what's wrong?

What's up with Johan Santana? He looked like fantasy's top pitcher at the start of this year and the surefire stud he's been for years. Then things started to turn a little bit south in his past few starts, with talk of his velocity being down, and he was getting hit harder than usual. Not a huge deal, but a concern to those owners watching closely. Then, Sunday's nine-run shelling in a 15-0 loss to the Yankees really got everybody's attention. Now all of a sudden we're hearing reports of back soreness, a split fingernail and finally a blister that forced him to change his grip and lose effectiveness on his fastball.

It's hard to know what to believe at this point in terms of Santana's health or the root cause of his struggles. The Mets' ace says he's fine, it was just a bad day (a really bad, career-worst day at that) and he'll be OK. Time will tell, so maybe if you're a cautious type you sit Santana for his next scheduled start against the slugging Tampa Bay Rays and watch the radar gun and see how he looks. But I'm not going to flip out about this right now if I'm a Santana owner - the guy's been too good for too long. If it were up to me I'd keep him activated and hope this has been just a temporary blip on what should be a fine season.

OK seriously ... what's up with Webb?

I've already blogged about Brandon Webb's mysterious shoulder ailment and its fantasy implications. Even though Webb was placed on the DL after one unimpressive start to open 2009, it seemed like the Diamondbacks sinkerballer was making progress in some rehab work.

Now, a setback.

I get concerned when a manager calls an injury "confusing," as Bob Melvin did, or when he doesn't know what the next move will be. And while I appreciate the D'backs' patience in not rushing their ace back too quickly, I'm now extremely concerned about his status for this season.

If Webb is wasting away in your DL slot as you watch contemporaries Tim Lincecum (12 strikeouts Friday) and Johan Santana (10 Ks) light it up, it might be time to consider a major trade for an ace-level pitcher. Two underachieving guys to target: Cole Hamels (0-2, 9.69 ERA, various bumps and bruises) and CC Sabathia (1-1, 4.81), whose values will only rise from this point.

CC to NY

No, we haven't forgotten about baseball. Even in the thick of the fantasy football playoffs, the record contract CC Sabathia is about to sign with the New York Yankees is worth the attention.

Sabathia is obviously one of the premier pitchers in baseball and a major fantasy commodity. But how does the move to the Bronx affect his value?

His numbers last year with the Indians and Brewers were off the charts - 17-10, 2.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 251 Ks. Pretty spectacular stuff right there. But CC doesn't come without some concerns, either. He pitched a massive amount of innings last year, a career-high 253. Historically, he hasn't pitched well at Yankee Stadium (1-4, 8.61 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, as The Sports Network points out), and the Bombers' new home has the same playing field dimensions. And while he feasted on some weak-hitting NL lineups during his blistering late-season stretch with the Brewers last year, he now moves to the dangerous AL East (although he does have pretty good career numbers against the Yanks' division rivals). And of course there's always the pressure-cooker that is New York, which has ruined many a pitcher before.

I think CC will be hard-pressed to match his phenomenal second-half production next year in Pinstripes. However, he's still capable of reaching, say, his 2007 Cy Young totals - 19-7, 3.21 ERA, 209 Ks - which would make him one of the top three fantasy pitchers in the game, right up there with Johan Santana and perhaps Tim Lincecum. For now, let's pencil him in at No. 2, right behind Mr. Santana, and check back in when it's closer to pitchers-and-catchers time.

Thoughts from Opening Day

One game doesn't make a season, so it's hard to learn a lot from Opening Day. But we've been without a full slate of real baseball games for so long, here are some random thoughts, notes and observations from yesterday's festivities ...

Rafael Furcal is back in the leadoff spot for the Dodgers now that Juan Pierre lost his starting LF job to Andre Either. Furcal looked pretty comfortable (3-for-4, walk, run, RBI) at the top. Expecting a big bounceback now that he's healthy.

Rookie Carlos Gomez drew rave reviews in his debut as the Twins' new CF (2-for-3, walk, two steals, two runs, double). Gomez doesn't have much power potential and probably could benefit from some more seasoning in the minors ... but he could swipe 30 bags this year if he can hit enough to stick around. The kid's scary fast.

I thought Matt Capps was supposed to be the one sure thing, fantasy-wise, on these Pittsburgh Pirates this year. Hard to explain his ninth-inning meltdown with a five-run lead, although he wasn't helped by some inexplicable shoddy defense. Let's just chalk it up as a bad day and move on.

As for the implosions by Eric Gagne and Kerry Wood in the Brewers-Cubs game ... those guys had a bunch of question marks surrounding them already, and it would've been good to see a nice, easy outing from them. The questions remain.

No surprise here: Johan Santana was awesome in his Mets debut. It should be a glorious year for him ... but you knew that already.

This week's column: Ranking the aces

My fantasy baseball column this week offers a little more in-depth breakdown of the top 15 starting pitchers, beginning with No. 1, Johan Santana. You can read it online here or in Sunday's Herald sports section.

Yo, Johan! How good will you be in '08?

Hey, I thought I read somewhere a while back that Johan Santana was going to be pitching for the Yankees or Red Sox in 2008, no doubt about it. That there was no way the Mets had the goods to swipe Santana away from the Twins, especially since they weren't willing to give away Jose Reyes in a deal.

Guess you can't believe everything you read.

After a couple months of stalled trade talks, back-and-forth proposals and a few of Hank Steinbrenner's bold proclamations, the Mets suddenly emerged as the front-runner, then reached a tentative deal Tuesday to acquire the left-handed ace.

The real stunner isn't so much that the Mets got Santana, but how they got him. While the Yanks and Sox were tossing around well-known names like Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury - widely considered future big-league stars - the Mets were able to send a so-so package of prospects Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra to Minnesota in exchange for the two-time Cy Young winner. While they are four of the Mets' top seven prospects, none of them projects to be much of a fantasy impact player in 2008.

If it's impact you're looking for, though, Santana's the guy. As if the dude wasn't already the top fantasy pitcher in the game, he now moves to the light-hitting National League (In his 16 interleague starts the past four seasons, he's 10-3 with a 2.16 ERA and has held NL hitters to a 1.84 average). He'll pitch next year at Shea Stadium, a pitcher's park where he sports a career 0.60 ERA. And the Mets own what could be the NL's most potent offense, which is an upgrade from what Santana had with the Twins.

My preliminary fantasy rankings for 2008 put Santana at the sixth overall spot - behind Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez and David Wright - and that was with Santana still pitching for the Twins and coming off what some might call a "down" year in 2007. I'm almost tempted to move Santana up to fifth overall - he's definitely the first pitcher that should be taken off the board and may be even more valuable than he already was, if you can believe it. It'd be an upset if he doesn't with another Cy Young in '08.