Give it up for Ubaldo

The early pick for fantasy's best pitcher in 2010 is Ubaldo Jimenez, and it's not even close.

Before the season you would have guessed Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay or maybe CC Sabathia or Zack Greinke. And while all of those guys have made their share of positive contributions, Jimenez has topped them all.

A record of 10-1. An ERA of 0.78. A 0.90 WHIP. Seventy strikeouts against 26 walks.

The numbers for the Colorado Rockies ace are nearly impeccable. He's this year's Greinke - a guy we knew was good, but never dreamed could be THIS good. Outdueling Lincecum? Leading the majors in wins? Putting up better stats than Halladay? If you saw all that coming, take a bow, because you're smarter than everyone else.

So can Jimenez keep it up? I don't see why not. The 26-year-old is on a roll, and while his ratios are probably due for some regression, there's no reason he can't keep up a Cy Young-caliber season. I wouldn't consider selling high on him unless I were getting an top-flight fantasy ace (Lincecum/Halladay) or an elite hitter in return.


Photo by The Associated Press

Feeling LOST

So I've been feeling a little lost lately ... and it's not just because I just finished watching the LOST series finale (sooooo were they dead the whole time or what? In purgatory? My head hurts) ...

No, I'm feeling lost because it seems like every move I've made with my fantasy team the past few days has horribly backfired.

Case in point: I'm in desperate need of some power, so I traded for Carlos Pena last week, figuring he's due to snap out of it and smash some round-trippers sooner or later. But I figure I'll keep him on my bench for a while since he hadn't even been hitting .100 this month.

Of course he goes and hits not one but two homers Thursday against the Yankees that are of absolutely no use to me.

Oh, I had him in my lineup Friday, Saturday and Sunday after that - when he went a combined 1-for-11 with no homers.

Similar story with Jason Bay, who had gone deep just once all year and was killing my HR total. Finally benched him Saturday against the Yanks and he goes 4-for-4 ... kept him on the bench Sunday figuring he wouldn't do much damage against CC Sabathia (1-for-9 lifetime) and he jacks not one but two homers. Foiled again.

Rough time with my pitching, too, where I'm in just as desperate need of wins. Figured I'd do the grab-and-start thing with Joel Pineiro - picked him up off the waiver wire as he was coming off a complete-game, four-hit shutout and was pitching at St. Louis (where he put up some great numbers both with the Cardinals and as an opposing pitcher - up until Friday, that is). Of course he lasts just three innings, coughing up nine earned runs on nine hits, including a grand slam to Brad Penny of all people.

Thanks for playing, Joel.

Maybe I'm the one who's stuck in purgatory, and my team isn't going anywhere until I make the right choice.

I just hope there's some kind of bright light for my team at the end of all this.

CC's near no-no

I was lucky enough to witness CC Sabathia's gem on Saturday at Tropicana Field. Never been anywhere close to seeing a no-hitter in person (though I covered a few Little League softball no-nos back in the day as a cub reporter), so I was pretty into it.

Cruising through 7.

Foiled in the 8th.

Kelly Shoppach had to go and ruin it for me (and CC, I suppose) with four outs to go. But it was a great performance from Sabathia nonetheless, and it got me thinking about the Yankees' ace from a fantasy perspective.

You can make a case that, along with Roy Halladay, CC is the surest thing in fantasy among starting pitchers. Think about it: He's the ace of a squad that's roundly projected to win 90-plus games; he's a veteran pitcher with a marvelous track record and no serious injury history; he hasn't pitched fewer than 230 innings or won fewer than 17 games in the past three years; he hasn't had an ERA higher than 3.40 in the past four years.

I ranked CC No. 24 overall among all fantasy players in my preseason rankings and the fourth pitcher on the list, behind Halladay, Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke. But Greinke doesn't have nearly the track record of Sabathia or nearly as strong a team, and was placed there mostly based on his upside. You can make a case CC deserves to be as high as No. 3. He's one of the select few pitchers you can always keep in your lineup and never even consider benching.

Peace of mind in fantasy baseball is a beautiful thing. And so are one-hitters.

Spring Preview: New York Yankees

TAMPA - Rain washed out my visit to New York Yankees spring training practice Saturday, although that didn't stop a few hundred pinstriped fans from loitering around George Steinbrenner Field to perhaps get a glimpse of one of their heroes from under an umbrella.

There might be a little less tension around Tampa and back in the Bronx this year with the Yanks having claimed their 27th world title in 2009. But New York is primed to make a run at No. 28 this year, thanks to plenty of Yankee superstars worthy of your fantasy consideration in 2010.

BREAKOUT PLAYERS: The Yanks weren't afraid to do some major tweaking to their championship roster, most notably staying goodbye to left fielder and World Series Game 4 star Johnny Damon over the offseason. His departure creates an opportunity for two new faces to have big years in 2010: New left fielder Curtis Granderson and DH Nick Johnson, back for his second tour of duty with N.Y. There have been whispers of Granderson's diminished defensive abilities and loud sirens signalling his ineffectiveness against left-handed pitching (.183 vs. southpaws in 2009), but he did also jack a career-high 30 homers last year, and he could easily duplicate that thanks to a swing that's tailor-made for the new Yankee Stadium's friendly right-field porch.

Meanwhile, there's a chance Johnson could take Damon's No. 2 spot in the batting order, and you can't tell me he wouldn't be excited to bat behind Derek Jeter and in front of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez after spending the past few years in the MLB wasteland of Washington, D.C. Johnson's plate discipline (career OBP: .402) make him a great fit for that spot in the Yanks' lineup, and the opportunity to DH after years in the NL should allow the injury-hampered Johnson to stay in the game.

BUYER BEWARE: Jorge Posada has to eventually break down, and though he's shown no warning signs yet, the man is 38 years old and will be behind the plate yet again for New York. In many ways he's the surest thing at the position this side of Joe Mauer if he performs up to his level of consistency, but one of these days Father Time will catch up with him (pun intended), and some fantasy owners are going to get burned. Is this the year?

ETC: A year removed from hip surgery, Rodriguez is still a fantasy beast and and a mid-first-rounder. ... Little reason to worry about Jeter, Teixeira, Robinson Cano or CC Sabathia. You know what kind of quality you're getting there. ... Javier Vazquez, another player making his second tour of duty in the Bronx, is intriguing. Coming off arguably his best season, his ERA is sure to take a hit with the move back to the AL East, where he once failed. But the lowered expectations of a No. 4 starter spot and the likely increase in run support he'll get in New York should help. So I don't really know what to expect. ... The battle for New York's No. 5 starter spot is one to watch, not just because of who wins but also who loses. If it's really a race between Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, the loser will still have value as arguably one of the top setup men in baseball. ... Mariano Rivera is still a worry-free draft choice at closer. Pick him and pencil yourself in for an easy 35 saves and no headaches. ... Brett Gardner is the Yanks' top stolen base threat, swiping 26 in just 284 plate appearances last year. He stands to get regular playing time with Melky Cabrera and Damon out of the picture and could be a 40-steal source without killing you in batting average (.270 in 2009).

Phillies settle for Lee

The Phillies couldn't work out a long-rumored deal for Roy Halladay, so they settled for Cliff Lee, the second-best pitcher on the trade market. How does the move affect Lee's fantasy fortunes? Could this move mirror last year's deadline deal that sent CC Sabathia to Milwaukee? The Indians traded the reigning Cy Young winner to the National League in that one and it worked out pretty well for CC owners (11-2, 1.65 ERA down the stretch as a Brewer).

It's hard to say Lee will enjoy that kind of dominance, but he should get a boost from facing weaker NL lineups. Lee owns a 3.18 career ERA against the NL, compared to a 4.13 vs. the AL. He does move to a much more hitter-friendly stadium - Citizens Bank Park is in the top 10 in runs and homers allowed per game, while Progressive Field is in the bottom three in runs and dead last in homers surrendered. But also consider Lee is receiving some of the lowest run support in the AL (4.32 runs per nine innings), while three of Philly's starters - Jamie Moyer (6.75), Cole Hamels (6.41) and J.A. Happ (5.35) - rank in the top 20 in the NL in run support. In short, the Phillies' offense is much better than the Indians', which should only help Lee's stats in the next two months. Lee owners should be extremely pleased with this deal.

Photo by The Associated Press

OK seriously ... what's up with Webb?

I've already blogged about Brandon Webb's mysterious shoulder ailment and its fantasy implications. Even though Webb was placed on the DL after one unimpressive start to open 2009, it seemed like the Diamondbacks sinkerballer was making progress in some rehab work.

Now, a setback.

I get concerned when a manager calls an injury "confusing," as Bob Melvin did, or when he doesn't know what the next move will be. And while I appreciate the D'backs' patience in not rushing their ace back too quickly, I'm now extremely concerned about his status for this season.

If Webb is wasting away in your DL slot as you watch contemporaries Tim Lincecum (12 strikeouts Friday) and Johan Santana (10 Ks) light it up, it might be time to consider a major trade for an ace-level pitcher. Two underachieving guys to target: Cole Hamels (0-2, 9.69 ERA, various bumps and bruises) and CC Sabathia (1-1, 4.81), whose values will only rise from this point.

CC to NY

No, we haven't forgotten about baseball. Even in the thick of the fantasy football playoffs, the record contract CC Sabathia is about to sign with the New York Yankees is worth the attention.

Sabathia is obviously one of the premier pitchers in baseball and a major fantasy commodity. But how does the move to the Bronx affect his value?

His numbers last year with the Indians and Brewers were off the charts - 17-10, 2.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 251 Ks. Pretty spectacular stuff right there. But CC doesn't come without some concerns, either. He pitched a massive amount of innings last year, a career-high 253. Historically, he hasn't pitched well at Yankee Stadium (1-4, 8.61 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, as The Sports Network points out), and the Bombers' new home has the same playing field dimensions. And while he feasted on some weak-hitting NL lineups during his blistering late-season stretch with the Brewers last year, he now moves to the dangerous AL East (although he does have pretty good career numbers against the Yanks' division rivals). And of course there's always the pressure-cooker that is New York, which has ruined many a pitcher before.

I think CC will be hard-pressed to match his phenomenal second-half production next year in Pinstripes. However, he's still capable of reaching, say, his 2007 Cy Young totals - 19-7, 3.21 ERA, 209 Ks - which would make him one of the top three fantasy pitchers in the game, right up there with Johan Santana and perhaps Tim Lincecum. For now, let's pencil him in at No. 2, right behind Mr. Santana, and check back in when it's closer to pitchers-and-catchers time.