Give it up for Ubaldo

The early pick for fantasy's best pitcher in 2010 is Ubaldo Jimenez, and it's not even close.

Before the season you would have guessed Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay or maybe CC Sabathia or Zack Greinke. And while all of those guys have made their share of positive contributions, Jimenez has topped them all.

A record of 10-1. An ERA of 0.78. A 0.90 WHIP. Seventy strikeouts against 26 walks.

The numbers for the Colorado Rockies ace are nearly impeccable. He's this year's Greinke - a guy we knew was good, but never dreamed could be THIS good. Outdueling Lincecum? Leading the majors in wins? Putting up better stats than Halladay? If you saw all that coming, take a bow, because you're smarter than everyone else.

So can Jimenez keep it up? I don't see why not. The 26-year-old is on a roll, and while his ratios are probably due for some regression, there's no reason he can't keep up a Cy Young-caliber season. I wouldn't consider selling high on him unless I were getting an top-flight fantasy ace (Lincecum/Halladay) or an elite hitter in return.


Photo by The Associated Press

Nice guys finish last

"Nice guys finish last."

Somebody told me that once a long time ago (maybe it was Kevin Arnold on "Wonder Years," I'm not certain).

If it's true, I must be one of the nicest darn guys you'll ever meet.

My fantasy baseball team's in last place.

Dead last.

It's an unenviable position - especially when it's a newsroom fantasy league, and you're the newspaper's fantasy sports "expert."

So what's gone wrong?

Well for starters, I currently have four players on the DL - not counting Cliff Lee, who just came off.

I've been without Jacoby Ellsbury, one of my five "keepers" entering the season and a starting OF, for a while now. And I just lost Brett Anderson, who was looking pretty good and for whom I had pretty high hopes this year.

I've suffered through some pretty awful - and I mean awful - pitching by Frank Francisco and Octavio Dotel, two of my "closers."

Didn't count on Adam Jones having 6 RBIs at this point either. Or Jason Bay one HR. Or Zack Greinke zero wins. Or Juan Pierre hitting .184, or Derrek Lee .217.

But it's not all bad.

Cliff Lee looked pretty good in his first start back from the DL, and hopefully he'll regain the Cy Young form I bargained for when I rolled the dice on him.

Ryan Zimmerman is going to have a great year if he can put his hamstring troubles behind him.

Hideki Matsui's been a bargain, and Casey McGehee's been a real find.

And Greinke's got to win a game sooner or later.

If he doesn't, I'm bound to stay stuck in last place for the long haul.

At least I'm a nice guy.

What's up with Zack Greinke?

Anyone else been burned by Zack Greinke in 2010?

The Kansas City Royals ace certainly hasnn't shown last year's Cy Young Award form - 0-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in three stars so far.

Some further disturbing facts:

- He allowed only four earned runs in his first eight starts last year; he's given up seven in three starts in 2010.

- He walked five batters in Friday's loss to Minnesota; he didn't walk that many in a game all of last season.

- Opposing batters have a .764 OPS against him; last year that number was .611.

And then there's this quote:

"I just think my mind's not right on how to pitch because every game I've been able to throw the ball close to where I want. I'm just not getting the job done."

Doesn't excactly make me feel much better about my investment - especially one who's dealt with some off-field mental issues in the recent past.

However, there is some good news. Opposing hitters' batting average on balls in play is .321, a rather high number (last year it was .307). And also: It's only been three starts! No way am I ready to write this kid off after such a sublime season.

Be patient. No need to panic.

Yet.

- Photo by The Associated Press

CC's near no-no

I was lucky enough to witness CC Sabathia's gem on Saturday at Tropicana Field. Never been anywhere close to seeing a no-hitter in person (though I covered a few Little League softball no-nos back in the day as a cub reporter), so I was pretty into it.

Cruising through 7.

Foiled in the 8th.

Kelly Shoppach had to go and ruin it for me (and CC, I suppose) with four outs to go. But it was a great performance from Sabathia nonetheless, and it got me thinking about the Yankees' ace from a fantasy perspective.

You can make a case that, along with Roy Halladay, CC is the surest thing in fantasy among starting pitchers. Think about it: He's the ace of a squad that's roundly projected to win 90-plus games; he's a veteran pitcher with a marvelous track record and no serious injury history; he hasn't pitched fewer than 230 innings or won fewer than 17 games in the past three years; he hasn't had an ERA higher than 3.40 in the past four years.

I ranked CC No. 24 overall among all fantasy players in my preseason rankings and the fourth pitcher on the list, behind Halladay, Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke. But Greinke doesn't have nearly the track record of Sabathia or nearly as strong a team, and was placed there mostly based on his upside. You can make a case CC deserves to be as high as No. 3. He's one of the select few pitchers you can always keep in your lineup and never even consider benching.

Peace of mind in fantasy baseball is a beautiful thing. And so are one-hitters.

Evaluating my team

Here are the 2010 Kenny Powers All-Stars, named in honor of the protagonist in HBO's hilarious East Bound & Down. It's a 10x10 rotisserie keeper league, with each team protecting five players from last year's roster. The round of selection is noted in parenthesis (I'm counting the 50 players kept as the first five "rounds"; K=keepers)

C Russell Martin (21)
1B Ryan Howard (K)
2B Ben Zobrist (7)
3B Ryan Zimmerman (K)
SS Stephen Drew (14)
IF Derrek Lee (9)
OF Jacoby Ellsbury (K)
OF Jason Bay (K)
OF Adam Jones (8)
OF Juan Pierre (15)
UTIL Todd Helton (17)
P Felix Hernandez (K)
P Zack Greinke (6)
P Cliff Lee (10)
P Brett Anderson (11)
P Francisco Cordero (12)
P Wandy Rodriguez (13)
P Frank Francisco (16)
P Neftali Feliz (19)
P Octavio Dotel (22)
BENCH Franklin Gutierrez (18)
BENCH Hideki Matsui (20)
BENCH Roy Oswalt (23)
BENCH Everth Cabrera (24)
BENCH Kerry Wood (25)
BENCH Gaby Sanchez (26)


NOTES: My first pick in the redraft was an easy choice when Zack Greinke fell to me at No. 4 (he wasn't kept by last year's champion, whose team was stacked). I love the pairing of Greinke and Felix Hernandez at the top of my rotation. In fact, I love my entire rotation - I couldn't pass up Cliff Lee even with the injury/suspension; reached a bit for Brett Anderson but love his upside; thought Wandy Rodriguez was undervalued as a 13th-round choice, and ditto with Roy Oswalt in the 23rd.

If starting pitching is my biggest strength, my biggest concern is power. Reaching for a few starters put me at a disadvantage, so I missed out on a few sluggers I was targeting in the early to middle rounds (Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn). Obviously having Ryan Howard helps; I need big things from Derrek Lee, and maybe Hideki Matsui and prospect Gaby Sanchez (my last pick) can help out a bit off the bench in that department.

Didn't really want Stephen Drew after he dragged down my team last year, but I decided to wait on a SS and he was the best guy remaining, so maybe he'll bounce back. Waited for a catcher too - I was hoping to nab Kurt Suzuki late but he went way earlier than I expected to another savvy owner, so I'll settle for Russell Martin. Remember when he used to be a stud?

One worry I don't have is speed, between Jacoby Ellsbury and Juan Pierre in the same outfield, plus speedy Everth Cabrera on the bench.

Not thrilled with my relievers. I started to feel some pressure and grabbed Francisco Cordero in the 12th round - he should be good for 40 saves or so. After that it's just spare parts - Frank Francisco (with Neftali Feliz as insurance), Octavio Dotel and Kerry Wood (hopefully he'll become trade bait when he gets healthy).

My other hopes: That Ben Zobrist wasn't a fluke, Adam Jones breaks out in a big way and Todd Helton still has something left in the tank.

The past few years I've loved my teams after draft day, and they turned out to be pretty mediocre. This year I've got lukewarm feelings, so maybe that means it could be something special.

We'll see.

Draft Day primer

It's a popular weekend for fantasy drafts with the MLB season slated to get under way Sunday night with another blood feud at Fenway Park. For those of you making your final draft preparations, a few tips:

1. Start with a list of player rankings. It can be from any source you trust: ESPN.com, SI.com, or one of those outrageously priced magazines on newsstands. Most will provide a list to suit your needs - top 300 (or more) overall, top NL-only players, etc. - as well as lists broken down by position.

2. Ideally, you've been doing some thinking/research/reading of this blog on your own up until this point and have some of your own opinions about who you like/dislike. I suggest using the prepared lists as a basis and reworking them according to your preferences. That way you don't have to start from scratch, but you can move Alex Rodriguez up or down a few spots depending on what you think of him.

3. I also find it helpful to group players into tiers by delineating them after they've been ranked by position. For instance, let's say your catcher rankings look something like this:

1. Joe Mauer
2. Brian McCann
3. Victor Martinez
4. Matt Wieters
5. Miguel Montero
6. Jorge Posada

You probably consider Mauer an "elite" catcher, far and away the best on the list. So you draw a horizontal line below his name to mark him off as the top tier. Then, let's say you think McCann and Martinez are more or less equal, so you mark them off as the next tier with a line under Martinez's name. And you put Wieters, Montero and Posada in the same tier after that.

1. Joe Mauer
______________
2. Brian McCann
3. Victor Martinez
______________

4. Matt Wieters
5. Miguel Montero
6. Jorge Posada

This way, as you get further into your draft, you can easily see the availability of players grouped in the same tier. For instance, maybe Wieters and Posada have already been drafted but Montero's still on the board, and there's a drop-off after that to another tier of guys you really aren't interested in. It's probably a good time to call Montero's name with your next pick. Seems simple, but it can really help you decide when it's OK to pass on a certain position and when to pull the trigger.

4. Know your league! Make sure you bring a paper with slots for every roster slot you'll need to fill. If your league starts an extra corner outfielder, you'll be much more pressed to grab a big-hitting 1B or 3B in the earlier rounds. If you need to carry a certain number of relievers or count WHIP as one of your statistics, you'll want to do some extra reading to identify quality set-up guys.

5. Do the same with your leaguemates' squads and jot down their picks by position as they make them, at least in the earlier rounds. Let's say I'm in a 10-team league, and I know eight of the other teams already have a SS. There are two SS left on the board that I'd be comfortable with as my starter, so I can probably afford to skip that position with my next pick, take another guy, and grab a SS on the next go-around.

6. Have fun. Make fun of other people's picks. And let them laugh at yours. But don't let them dissuade you from building your team the way you want to, because when it comes down to it, nobody knows anything. Nobody thought Zack Greinke would be so good last year. Nobody thought Chien-Ming Wang would be so bad. But it happens. Fantasy baseball isn't a computer program; you can't just plug names into a roster and get an expected output. It's unpredictable. It takes skill, but also a lot of luck. And don't forget it's supposed to be fun.

2009 Fantasy All-Stars

There is no online fan-balloting for my fantasy All-Star team.

No one-player-from-every-team rule. No sentimental favorites or hometown heroes or feel-good stories.

My fantasy All-Star squad is all about the cold, hard numbers — just like the game itself. There’s little room for subjectivity or emotions getting in the way.

I’m simply recognizing those players who have made the biggest statistical impacts at their respective positions. Basically, if my all-stars were actually assembled as someone’s fantasy team, they would have dominated all competition in the first half of the season and would be running away with the league title.

So let’s do this:

CATCHER

The Minnesota Twins’ Joe Mauer is making a legitimate run at .400, but as if that weren’t enough, he’s already hit a career-high 14 home runs. Mauer cost more than other catchers in your draft, but he’s paying you back tenfold.

FIRST BASE

Albert Pujols has been off the charts: A league-leading 31 homers and 82 RBIs, an average above .330 and 10 steals, his most since 2005. Hats off to fantasy’s Most Valuable Player in the first half.

SECOND BASE

Ian Kinsler gets the nod despite a batting average that’s plunged into the low .260s — a disappointment after last year’s .319 mark. But everything else has been just fine for the Texas Ranger: he’s among the league leaders at the position in homers (19), runs (56) , RBIs (51) and steals (16).

THIRD BASE

In perhaps the most surprising choice, I’m giving the hot corner honors to the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Mark Reynolds, who leads all third basemen in homers, is second in RBIs and fourth in steals. He’ll never be a batting champ (.271 average through Friday), but the rest of the numbers don’t lie.

SHORTSTOP

The Florida Marlins’ Hanley Ramirez is the only repeat from last year’s squad, despite the fact he’s registered fewer steals (14) than Derek Jeter and Willie Bloomquist. Han-Ram’s made up for that, however, by leading all everyday shortstops in homers and RBIs and ranking second at the position in runs and average. We’ll take that.

OUTFIELD

Raul Ibanez, fantasy’s biggest surprise of 2009 by far, was having an MVP-caliber year (.312, 22 homers, 59 RBIs, 51 runs) in his first season with the Philadelphia Phillies before hurting his groin. Can he keep up that pace in the second half?

Jason Bay has blossomed in Boston, laying the groundwork for a career season and threatening to lead the league in RBIs (70 through Friday).

Carl Crawford’s already reached the 40-steal mark but has also mixed in power (eight homers) and an awesome average (.320 at last check) for the Tampa Bay Rays.

STARTING PITCHER

Roy Halladay? Johan Santana? Tim Lincecum? Josh Beckett? All worthy candidates. But if I had to choose just one starter, it’s Kansas City Royals ace Zack Greinke, a guy who was drafted later or cost less than all the aforementioned star hurlers. Greinke’s got as many wins as anyone else in the league, kept his ERA under 2.00, and walked just 18 batters while striking out 114. Remarkable.

RELIEF PITCHER

Here’s another choice no one could have predicted: Heath Bell of the San Diego Padres gets the call over heavyweights such as Joe Nathan, Francisco Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon. Bell’s got more saves than all those guys and can hang with any of those revered closers in strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. No one said a fantasy All-Star has to be an actual star.

Photo by The Associated Press

How did Zack Greinke get so good?

Royals pitcher Zack Greinke is just beginning to show up on the nation's radar - a 6-0 start with a 0.40 ERA will do that, even if you are pitching in Kansas City.

But fantasy players have known about the young hurler for a long time now, all the way back to 2003 when he was the minor league player of the year. He was a bit homer-prone early in his career and went through plenty of growing pains after being rushed to the majors at the delicate age of 20. Then he bottomed out, succumbing to depression and social anxiety disorder and walking away from baseball, as Joe Posnanski details in this week's Sports Illustrated cover story.

But now Greinke is back and in a better place mentally. And that's translated to amazing success on the mound, where the 25-year-old is the early front-runner for the AL Cy Young. He's been fabulous this year - 54 strikeouts to eight walks, two earned runs in 45 innings, three complete games. And it's no fluke, either: this is what scouts and observers always believed Greinke was capable of, thanks to excellent command of both his fastball and his curve. Obviously he's not going undefeated, and that ERA is bound to creep up a bit, but don't sell high here. You're getting ace-quality numbers from a pitcher who likely was taken in the middle rounds of the draft or cost a fraction of disappointments like Brandon Webb or Cole Hamels. Enjoy the ride, and let's see what Greinke is capable of this year.

Photo courtesy of Sports Illustrated