Pena's power outage

Carlos Pena's .183 batting average got you down?

We all knew going into the season the Tampa Bay Rays slugger wasn't going to win a batting title - after all, he hit .227 last year and carries a .245 lifetime average. But you still had to figure Pena would at least hit his weight (He's listed at 225 pounds, for the record). It's gotten so bad (he was in a 1-for-37 slump entering Friday night's game) that he was benched earlier this week, in part to get a mental break.

Of course, every player goes through slumps, especially one as hot-and-cold as Pena. But the thing that really bothers you is this season's power outage. Pena's got five homers this year, or one per every 23 at-bats. In the past three seasons (his coming-of-age years with the Rays), he's gone deep every 12, 15 and 10 at-bats, respectively.

It's a bit puzzling, considering Pena, a notorious strikeout artist, is still whiffing at just about the same rate he always has. However, he's hitting many more ground balls compared to fly balls than usual, and only 12% of the fly balls he does hit have gone for home runs, compared to 21% last year.

Is Pena pressing, as this week's benching suggests? Is the free-agent-to-be worried about his contract status for next year, as chronicled by Sports Illustrated? Could be. But ultimately, I'm not going to worry about it too much. Pena's one of the league's elite home run hitters and is still in his prime. I believe this is just an unfortunately timed and prolonged slump, and he's still capable of approaching 40 homers this season, which is exactly what you expected out of him. I just pulled off a straight-up trade for him in my main league for Francisco Cordero, and I feel pretty good about it. Pena's power will come.


Photo by The Associated Press

Frank Francisco, you're killing me

So I decided to wait on grabbing a closer in my draft this year. Got Francisco Cordero in the 12th round and felt pretty good about that.

Decided to back him up with Texas' Frank Francisco in the 16th round. Liked that one too.

Then on April 8 against Toronto, Francisco did this:

0.2 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 K, 3 ER, blown save, loss

And then he followed that up with this gem Saturday vs. Seattle:

0.1 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 0 K, 3 ER, blown save, loss

Great start, Frankie!

Will Francisco be the first major league closer to lose his job in 2010? Said Rangers manager Ron Washington after the game Saturday: "Stay tuned."

Believe me, Ron, I will.

Good thing I have Neftali Feliz on my bench, too. The young flamethrower should be the next in line for save opportunities in Texas, if the Rangers are really serious about contending in the AL West this year.

He just may save my fantasy team in the process.

***UPDATE***

Feliz was named Texas' "temporary" closer on Sunday. Woo hoo! Grab him immediately if he's available.

Evaluating my team

Here are the 2010 Kenny Powers All-Stars, named in honor of the protagonist in HBO's hilarious East Bound & Down. It's a 10x10 rotisserie keeper league, with each team protecting five players from last year's roster. The round of selection is noted in parenthesis (I'm counting the 50 players kept as the first five "rounds"; K=keepers)

C Russell Martin (21)
1B Ryan Howard (K)
2B Ben Zobrist (7)
3B Ryan Zimmerman (K)
SS Stephen Drew (14)
IF Derrek Lee (9)
OF Jacoby Ellsbury (K)
OF Jason Bay (K)
OF Adam Jones (8)
OF Juan Pierre (15)
UTIL Todd Helton (17)
P Felix Hernandez (K)
P Zack Greinke (6)
P Cliff Lee (10)
P Brett Anderson (11)
P Francisco Cordero (12)
P Wandy Rodriguez (13)
P Frank Francisco (16)
P Neftali Feliz (19)
P Octavio Dotel (22)
BENCH Franklin Gutierrez (18)
BENCH Hideki Matsui (20)
BENCH Roy Oswalt (23)
BENCH Everth Cabrera (24)
BENCH Kerry Wood (25)
BENCH Gaby Sanchez (26)


NOTES: My first pick in the redraft was an easy choice when Zack Greinke fell to me at No. 4 (he wasn't kept by last year's champion, whose team was stacked). I love the pairing of Greinke and Felix Hernandez at the top of my rotation. In fact, I love my entire rotation - I couldn't pass up Cliff Lee even with the injury/suspension; reached a bit for Brett Anderson but love his upside; thought Wandy Rodriguez was undervalued as a 13th-round choice, and ditto with Roy Oswalt in the 23rd.

If starting pitching is my biggest strength, my biggest concern is power. Reaching for a few starters put me at a disadvantage, so I missed out on a few sluggers I was targeting in the early to middle rounds (Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn). Obviously having Ryan Howard helps; I need big things from Derrek Lee, and maybe Hideki Matsui and prospect Gaby Sanchez (my last pick) can help out a bit off the bench in that department.

Didn't really want Stephen Drew after he dragged down my team last year, but I decided to wait on a SS and he was the best guy remaining, so maybe he'll bounce back. Waited for a catcher too - I was hoping to nab Kurt Suzuki late but he went way earlier than I expected to another savvy owner, so I'll settle for Russell Martin. Remember when he used to be a stud?

One worry I don't have is speed, between Jacoby Ellsbury and Juan Pierre in the same outfield, plus speedy Everth Cabrera on the bench.

Not thrilled with my relievers. I started to feel some pressure and grabbed Francisco Cordero in the 12th round - he should be good for 40 saves or so. After that it's just spare parts - Frank Francisco (with Neftali Feliz as insurance), Octavio Dotel and Kerry Wood (hopefully he'll become trade bait when he gets healthy).

My other hopes: That Ben Zobrist wasn't a fluke, Adam Jones breaks out in a big way and Todd Helton still has something left in the tank.

The past few years I've loved my teams after draft day, and they turned out to be pretty mediocre. This year I've got lukewarm feelings, so maybe that means it could be something special.

We'll see.

Offseason moves: Relievers

RP Brad Lidge to Phillies: Lidge's struggles since serving up the famous Albert Pujols homer have been well-documented, but the Phils figured a change of scenery would do him good. The problem is he's moved to a ballpark built for home runs, and he just had surgery on his knee Monday, which could force him to not be ready for Opening Day. Draft cautiously.

RP Francisco Cordero to Reds: Cordero sometimes gets a bad rap as a shaky closer, but here are his numbers from last year with Milwaukee: 44 saves, 2.98 ERA, 86/18 K/BB ratio, .218 batting average against. Now, here are Mariano Rivera's '07 stats: 30 saves, 3.15 ERA, 74/12 K/BB, .248 BAA. Not saying you draft Cordero ahead of Rivera, necessarily, but waiting for a guy like Cordero several rounds later wouldn't be such a bad idea.

RP Jose Valverde to Astros: Valverde is a similar guy. Is he volatile? Sometimes. Is he an upgrade from what Houston had previously? Yup. Is he capable of repeating last year's 47-save season? He'll come close.

RP Eric Gagne to Brewers: Gagne apologized for being implicated in the Mitchell Report this offseason. He should apologize to the Red Sox for completely tanking after they acquired him at last year's trade deadline. I don't know if it was the pressure he faced in Boston, his role as a set-up man, or just that he got tired after not pitching a full season since 2004, but none of that should be a problem as he gets a fresh start as Milwaukee's closer. Yes, he's an injury risk, but remember, Gagne was having a great comeback year with Texas before getting traded to the Sox. He might be undervalued at your draft.

RP Troy Percival to Rays: Percival's another veteran closer who was sidelined for a while with injuries and actually retired for a year before making a successful comeback as a middle reliever last year with the Cardinals (1.80 ERA, 36 Ks in 24 innings). He parlayed that into a two-year deal as the closer in Tampa Bay, where he supplants Al Reyes. There's always a chance Percival could blow out his arm, which is a concern, but don't automatically get scared off just because he's the closer of the Rays - Reyes (26 saves in '07) and Danys Baez (41 saves in '05) have been useful fantasy players in that role before.