Keeper debate: Adam Jones vs. Billy Butler

My old pal Sean-Dogg recently hit me up for some fantasy advice, as he's been known to do over the years. He's in a pretty serious keeper league and he's faced with a big conundrum: He's got to give up Alex Rodriguez at the end of the year, so he's trying to entertain trade offers while his team is basically out of contention this season.

His decision right now essential comes down to choosing between Orioles OF Adam Jones and some spare parts, or a package that includes Royals 1B Billy Butler. Neither of those guys is going to replace the overall production of an A-Rod anytime soon, but they're both quality keeper prospects who are relatively young (Jones turns 25 in a few weeks; Butler just turned 24 in April) and have room to grow. So who's a better keeper pick?

To start, we should note that the skill sets are quite different. Butler's not known for being fleet of foot (1 career SB in 4 seasons); Jones has swiped 10 bags in each of the past two years (though he has just 3 so far in 2010). Butler's a career .297 hitter with an average currently hovering at .318; Jones seems to have topped out at around .270. Butler's been a much more patient hitter, as evidenced by his 41/37 K/BB ratio this year; Jones has only walked 10 times in 2010 compared to 79 strikeouts. Both have shown 20-homer power (Butler had 21 last year, Jones 19).

This is a pretty tough call. As I told the Dogg, I want to give Butler the edge because he's younger than Jones and yet he's already proven more at the major league level. The ability to hit .300 for a season is a impressive skill, and last year's .301/21/93 stat line speaks volumes about Butler's talents. However, while the average is for real, I wonder if he can improve on those power numbers and jump up to the class of the 30- and 40-homer first basemen that dominate a deep position.

Jones' potential as a five-category contributor are intriguing, but they're still just that, potential. Until I see better results and an improved approach at the plate and more aggression on the basepaths, I have to declare Butler the better keeper prospect by a hair.

Hope that helps, buddy.


Photos by The Associated Press

Evaluating my team

Here are the 2010 Kenny Powers All-Stars, named in honor of the protagonist in HBO's hilarious East Bound & Down. It's a 10x10 rotisserie keeper league, with each team protecting five players from last year's roster. The round of selection is noted in parenthesis (I'm counting the 50 players kept as the first five "rounds"; K=keepers)

C Russell Martin (21)
1B Ryan Howard (K)
2B Ben Zobrist (7)
3B Ryan Zimmerman (K)
SS Stephen Drew (14)
IF Derrek Lee (9)
OF Jacoby Ellsbury (K)
OF Jason Bay (K)
OF Adam Jones (8)
OF Juan Pierre (15)
UTIL Todd Helton (17)
P Felix Hernandez (K)
P Zack Greinke (6)
P Cliff Lee (10)
P Brett Anderson (11)
P Francisco Cordero (12)
P Wandy Rodriguez (13)
P Frank Francisco (16)
P Neftali Feliz (19)
P Octavio Dotel (22)
BENCH Franklin Gutierrez (18)
BENCH Hideki Matsui (20)
BENCH Roy Oswalt (23)
BENCH Everth Cabrera (24)
BENCH Kerry Wood (25)
BENCH Gaby Sanchez (26)


NOTES: My first pick in the redraft was an easy choice when Zack Greinke fell to me at No. 4 (he wasn't kept by last year's champion, whose team was stacked). I love the pairing of Greinke and Felix Hernandez at the top of my rotation. In fact, I love my entire rotation - I couldn't pass up Cliff Lee even with the injury/suspension; reached a bit for Brett Anderson but love his upside; thought Wandy Rodriguez was undervalued as a 13th-round choice, and ditto with Roy Oswalt in the 23rd.

If starting pitching is my biggest strength, my biggest concern is power. Reaching for a few starters put me at a disadvantage, so I missed out on a few sluggers I was targeting in the early to middle rounds (Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn). Obviously having Ryan Howard helps; I need big things from Derrek Lee, and maybe Hideki Matsui and prospect Gaby Sanchez (my last pick) can help out a bit off the bench in that department.

Didn't really want Stephen Drew after he dragged down my team last year, but I decided to wait on a SS and he was the best guy remaining, so maybe he'll bounce back. Waited for a catcher too - I was hoping to nab Kurt Suzuki late but he went way earlier than I expected to another savvy owner, so I'll settle for Russell Martin. Remember when he used to be a stud?

One worry I don't have is speed, between Jacoby Ellsbury and Juan Pierre in the same outfield, plus speedy Everth Cabrera on the bench.

Not thrilled with my relievers. I started to feel some pressure and grabbed Francisco Cordero in the 12th round - he should be good for 40 saves or so. After that it's just spare parts - Frank Francisco (with Neftali Feliz as insurance), Octavio Dotel and Kerry Wood (hopefully he'll become trade bait when he gets healthy).

My other hopes: That Ben Zobrist wasn't a fluke, Adam Jones breaks out in a big way and Todd Helton still has something left in the tank.

The past few years I've loved my teams after draft day, and they turned out to be pretty mediocre. This year I've got lukewarm feelings, so maybe that means it could be something special.

We'll see.

Spring preview: Baltimore Orioles

SARASOTA - Greetings from the new spring training home of the Baltimore Orioles! I was lucky enough to check out the O's first full-squad workout Tuesday at their new sunny locale, Sarasota's Ed Smith Stadium, which happens to be approximately 2 miles from my house. The laid-back atmosphere offered a good chance to get an up-close look at some of the new faces and promising young talent that will make up Baltimore's 2010 squad.

I'm hoping to visit several of the MLB squads that make Florida's west coast their home away from home, either for workouts or games, over the next month or so, and I'll bring you a quick fantasy synopsis for the upcoming season. So here we go, starting with the O's.

BREAKOUT PLAYER: Nick Markakis and Adam Jones are already pretty well-known among most fans (even though one older Orioles fan pointed out "Pacman Jones" on Monday). But it's Baltimore's third outfielder, 26-year-old Nolan Reimold, who made the biggest splash in the second half of 2009. He hit 15 homers - three fewer than Markakis, in nearly 300 fewer at-bats - and stole eight bases while hitting .279. I'm eager to see what he can do for a full season batting in the top half of a lineup that's better than you might think.

BUYER BEWARE: Brian Roberts' SB totals have dropped in each of the past two seasons, from 50 to 40 to 30, and although his offensive game is still good (16 homers in 2009, second-most of his career), the 32-year-old's decline in speed and a herniated disk in his lower back that's currently bothering him have me a tad concerned.

ETC: Catcher Matt Wieters didn't take fantasy by storm last year as predicted, but the kid's only 23 years old and is still likely to join Joe Mauer as the game's elite catchers. Be wary of overpaying (unless you're in a keeper league, where he's a must-have), but even a slight improvement on last year's numbers would make Wieters a top-5 fantasy catcher in 2010. ... Miguel Tejada (right), who hit 112 homers in four seasons with the O's from 2004-07, is back in a Baltimore uniform and ready to contribute after a solid bounce-back year with the Astros last season. He'll play third this year but retains SS eligibility. ... Garrett Atkins is slated to be Baltimore's starting first baseman, but must prove he can hit away from Coors Field and hold onto the job. ... Kevin Millwood, who pitched above his head for the first half of 2009 with the Rangers before fading, doesn't excite me much as the Orioles' new ace. But some of their other promising young starters, particularly lefty Brian Matusz and righty Chris Tillman, are very intriguing as late-round fliers. ... New closer Mike Gonzalez has a bunch of experience closing out games with the Pirates and Braves and could be a pleasant surprise with the job all to himself at the start of the season.

Bedard's value gets a boost

It wasn't exactly a surprise after two weeks of rumors, gossip and hearsay, but Erik Bedard has finally been traded.

The Orioles, realizing they are a small fish in a big pond of Yankees and Red Sox, dealt their burgeoning ace to the Mariners for a package of five players highlighted by young outfielder Adam Jones, pitching prospect Chris Tillman and reliever George Sherrill.

Bedard enjoyed a breakout 2007, his third year in the majors: 13-5, 221 strikeouts, 3.17 ERA, .212 batting average against in 182 innings. Not bad, eh? Now he moves to Safeco Field, a better pitchers' park, and gets an upgraded lineup and bullpen behind him. The only dirt I could find on this guy is a strained oblique that ended his season a few weeks early last year, but all indications are he's fine. Bedard was already a top-five AL starter before this deal finally went down, and the move to Seattle coupled with Johan Santana's relocation to the NL may even make Bedard the AL's No. 1 fantasy pitcher.

As for the other side of the deal, Jones should step right in as the O's starting center fielder but he's still learning to hit at the big league level; Sherrill, a 30-year-old lefty, might rise to the top of an unsettled bullpen situation and should be on your watch list as a source of saves; and the rest of the young guys are probably a few years away from the bigs.