Listen up: Fantasy Focus podcast

Our first Fantasy Focus podcast of the year is now posted on Bradenton.com.

Herald staffer Jason Dill and I chatted about some possible buy low and sell high candidates, from Mark Teixeira to David Ortiz to Paul Konerko to Stephen Strasburg. If you've always wondered what my voice sounded like, this is your big chance.

Got a fantasy question? Post a comment here and we may answer it on our next podcast.

New Face, New Place: Curtis Granderson, Yankees

OK, OK, Curtis Granderson can't hit left-handers - or, at least he couldn't in 2009 (.183 vs. LHP). But other than that, there's not much to dislike about the guy this year.

Granderson's move from Detroit to New York seems like a perfect match of his left-handed power and the new Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch. Some have attributed his steady decline in batting average (.249 in 2009, down from .280 in 2008 and .302 in 2007) to Granderson trying to swing for the fences - which would explain his 49-percent flyball rate and career high 30 homers last year. But for fantasy purposes, I say swing away!

It's unclear where Granderson will be slotted in the Yankees' lineup - he could bat second ahead of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, but the optimum spot for his fantasy fortunes would be somewhere around sixth or seventh, where he is free to race around the basepaths. Granderson could easily be a 20-steal, 30-homer OF this year, and if he can raise that average he'll be a steal in the middle rounds.

- Photo by The Associated Press

New Face, New Place: Johnny Damon, Tigers

Johnny Damon's reward for a surprisingly stellar 2009 season and a memorable postseason was a one-year, $8 million deal with the Detroit Tigers this offseason.

Damon can thank agent Scott Boras for overplaying his hand and getting his client such a disappointing deal (they had sought at least two years and upwards of $15 million per year, preferably with the Yankees - whoops!) But on the bright side, at least Damon can grow out his Jesus beard again.

So what can we expect from Damon in Detroit? Certainly not the 24 homers he mashed last year, which tied a career high - 17 of those puppies came thanks to the jet stream in the new Yankee Stadium. His power numbers will likely diminish, but the tradeoff could be an uptick in steals, as Damon will probably bat leadoff or second behind former Yankee farmhand Austin Jackson, who could be the Tigers' starting center fielder. Detroit may ask Damon to run the way he used to before last year - he had three straight seasons of 25+ steals before last year's 12. Damon won't be batting ahead of Mark Teixeira/Alex Rodriguez anymore, but he's still got on-base skills and should have more opportunities to swipe bags.

Put it all together and Damon is still a valuable third or fourth fantasy outfielder. Just don't expect those homers.

Spring Preview: New York Yankees

TAMPA - Rain washed out my visit to New York Yankees spring training practice Saturday, although that didn't stop a few hundred pinstriped fans from loitering around George Steinbrenner Field to perhaps get a glimpse of one of their heroes from under an umbrella.

There might be a little less tension around Tampa and back in the Bronx this year with the Yanks having claimed their 27th world title in 2009. But New York is primed to make a run at No. 28 this year, thanks to plenty of Yankee superstars worthy of your fantasy consideration in 2010.

BREAKOUT PLAYERS: The Yanks weren't afraid to do some major tweaking to their championship roster, most notably staying goodbye to left fielder and World Series Game 4 star Johnny Damon over the offseason. His departure creates an opportunity for two new faces to have big years in 2010: New left fielder Curtis Granderson and DH Nick Johnson, back for his second tour of duty with N.Y. There have been whispers of Granderson's diminished defensive abilities and loud sirens signalling his ineffectiveness against left-handed pitching (.183 vs. southpaws in 2009), but he did also jack a career-high 30 homers last year, and he could easily duplicate that thanks to a swing that's tailor-made for the new Yankee Stadium's friendly right-field porch.

Meanwhile, there's a chance Johnson could take Damon's No. 2 spot in the batting order, and you can't tell me he wouldn't be excited to bat behind Derek Jeter and in front of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez after spending the past few years in the MLB wasteland of Washington, D.C. Johnson's plate discipline (career OBP: .402) make him a great fit for that spot in the Yanks' lineup, and the opportunity to DH after years in the NL should allow the injury-hampered Johnson to stay in the game.

BUYER BEWARE: Jorge Posada has to eventually break down, and though he's shown no warning signs yet, the man is 38 years old and will be behind the plate yet again for New York. In many ways he's the surest thing at the position this side of Joe Mauer if he performs up to his level of consistency, but one of these days Father Time will catch up with him (pun intended), and some fantasy owners are going to get burned. Is this the year?

ETC: A year removed from hip surgery, Rodriguez is still a fantasy beast and and a mid-first-rounder. ... Little reason to worry about Jeter, Teixeira, Robinson Cano or CC Sabathia. You know what kind of quality you're getting there. ... Javier Vazquez, another player making his second tour of duty in the Bronx, is intriguing. Coming off arguably his best season, his ERA is sure to take a hit with the move back to the AL East, where he once failed. But the lowered expectations of a No. 4 starter spot and the likely increase in run support he'll get in New York should help. So I don't really know what to expect. ... The battle for New York's No. 5 starter spot is one to watch, not just because of who wins but also who loses. If it's really a race between Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, the loser will still have value as arguably one of the top setup men in baseball. ... Mariano Rivera is still a worry-free draft choice at closer. Pick him and pencil yourself in for an easy 35 saves and no headaches. ... Brett Gardner is the Yanks' top stolen base threat, swiping 26 in just 284 plate appearances last year. He stands to get regular playing time with Melky Cabrera and Damon out of the picture and could be a 40-steal source without killing you in batting average (.270 in 2009).

Greetings from spring training

BRADENTON - We're lucky enough to live within a couple hours' drive of about 13 MLB spring training sites here on Florida's Gulf Coast. It's one of my favorite things about living in the Sunshine State ... other than the sunshine, of course. And all the old folks. Love my seniors!

I usually try to take in as much spring training action as I can, not just because I love baseball, but also because it gives me just a little extra insight as I prep for the fantasy season. Sure, the games don't matter that much in the grand scheme of things, but it's nice to get an up-close look at some of the players I may or may not be building my team around in a couple weeks.

I've been slacking in my spring travels so far in 2009, however. I did venture up to Tampa to take part in the madness that is Yankees camp shortly after pitchers and catchers reported ... but of course I picked the one day they decided to go on a team billiards outing. But today I got to soak in some 80-degree weather at the Yanks' 13-10 split-squad win against the Pirates at charming McKechnie Field. Here are a few fantasy-related tidbits I came away with:

g I got to see two of the majors' top outfield prospects in action: New York's Austin Jackson, who slugged a two-run homer, and Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen. The pair of 22-year-olds have lots of similarities, as the Bradenton Herald's John Lembo reports, and both figure to be fantasy contributors in the near future. McCutchen, who hit .284 and stole 34 bases last year at Triple-A Indianapolis, figures to get the first crack at the big leagues, if not on the Pirates' Opening Day roster then soon after. Jackson probably has a bigger hill to climb as he's blocked by a few high-priced Yankees outfielders, but we could see him in the bigs in 2009 if Johnny Damon runs into any more health problems or the Brett Gardner/Melky Cabrera experiment in center doesn't pan out. Both McCutchen and Jackson will probably go undrafted in most mixed leagues this year but they're two power/speed guys you should be keeping tabs on.

g The Yankees' Mark Teixeira made the trip down to Bradenton and went 0-for-3. As I've mentioned previously, it might be a rocky transition to life in pinstripes for Tex - no Alex Rodriguez in the lineup for a month and a half at least, plus he's a much better second-half hitter (.303 average, .966 OPS) than first-half (.277, .877). But ultimately I have few worries about the 28-year-old hitting machine, who willl enjoy the same fabled right-field porch dimensions at the new Yankee Stadium and perhaps the best offense he's been a part of to date. He's definitely worth a late first-round pick, and I've placed him in my preseason top 10.

g Matt Capps is a guy I'm penciling in for about 35 saves this year, and yet he'll likely be a bit undervalued because a) he missed a bunch of time with a shoulder injury last year and b) people tend to underestimate closers on teams that aren't expected to win a ton of games. But he's certainly got the guts to handle the role and did a fine job the past two years when healthy - 39 for 47 in save opportunities with ERAs of 2.28 and 3.06, plus 103 strikeouts to just 21 walks during that time. He didn't have a great outing Saturday - one hit, two walks, two Ks, one earned run in an inning of work - but he's still a very sold fantasy closer who shouldn't break your bank.

A-Rod, the juice, and his fantasy future

Not since the early days of the Barry Bonds BALCO scandal have we had a mess like this in fantasy sports. What the heck do you do with Alex Rodriguez this year?

The dude was easily a top-three fantasy player a month ago, but his latest offseason drama - which includes his admitted use of something he calls "Boli" and now his hip surgery - have really thrown a monkeywrench into our preseason plans. A-Rod (or A-Roid, or A-Fraud, or A-Hole, the possibilities are endless) is expected to miss six to nine weeks at the start of the season after he underwent a procedure to repair a torn labrum - which you usually hear about in shoulders, not hips. The Yankees, who've committed more money to this guy in the next decade than the government has to AIG, are confident he'll be back and productive sometime in May, and ESPN injury expert Stephania Bell gives him an excellent chance to return to his old self by season's end.

So the prognosis seems good, and even A-Rod playing at 80 percent capability for 80 percent of the MLB season is an extremely valuable fantasy commodity. If you're in a keeper league it's obviously bad news - you've got to hold onto him even though he won't give you anything for at least the first month and a half of the season. That will be a painful pill to swallow (or inject, if you like) but I don't think I could toss him back in good conscience and let somebody else pick up his 30 homers and 90 RBIs and 15 steals, assuming he rounds back into form by the end of May.

Now, if you're redrafting and A-Rod is sitting out there for the taking, when do you pull the trigger? I'm seeing him ranked by several respectable fantasy publications somewhere around the low 20s to the low 30s, which would put him at the end of the second round or into the third round in a 10-team league. He's the very definition of a high-risk, high-reward pick at that point, and if you think your team can stay afloat until he returns, go for it. You'll want to grab a capable fill-in at third base, which is a scarce position to begin with, but holding onto A-Rod could really pay off by midseason.

As for what all this means for the rest of the Yankees' stars ... it's not great. As you may recall, A-Rod's offense has almost single-handedly kept New York afloat through some otherwise terrible starts to the past two seasons, and they're going to miss his bat immensely in the middle of the batting order. The pressure's on for offseason import Mark Teixeira, notorious for being a slow starter to begin with and now missing his protection in the lineup. Table-setters Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter and sleeper candidate Brett Gardner could see their run-scoring drop off significantly without Rodriguez batting behind them. And if you're thinking of scooping up A-Rod's replacement (for now), 33-year-old Cody Ransom, forget it: He's a career .242 hitter with a .322 on-base percentage in 11 (count 'em, 11) seasons in the minor leagues. I'm sure you can do better unless you're taking him at the very end of an AL-only draft.

Manny to Hollywood and more trade impacts

Now that the MLB trading deadline has come and gone, let's review the major deals from a fantasy perspective:

Manny Ramirez to Dodgers: I don't see Manny's value taking much of a dip in L.A. The change of scenery should bring out the carefree knucklehead we're used to seeing, and although the breakup of baseball's most feared duo (Manny and David Ortiz) hurts both players a bit, both should continue their slugging ways.

Jason Bay to Red Sox: Bay is no Manny, but he's an All-Star-caliber player, and he'll certainly benefit from playing in Fenway Park with a much better supporting cast than he had in Pittsburgh. He was in the midst of a really nice bounceback year, and he's already taken a liking to life with the Sox (homer, three RBIs, six runs scored, three walks in three games).

Craig Hansen, Andy LaRoche, Brandon Moss to Pirates: Three of the four minor leaguers Pittsburgh acquired in their big three-team deal will get immediate playing time with the big league club. Hansen will be in the mix in the Pirates' bullpen and could be their closer of the future, a job he didn't have much chance of taking from Jonathan Papelbon in Boston. Save-scavengers take notice. Moss has a bright future as the Pirates' everyday left fielder, though he's probably a year or two away from making real fantasy contributions. LaRoche, once considered the Dodgers' third baseman of the future before falling out of favor, now holds that distinction in Pittsburgh, where he'll man the hot corner across the diamond from his big brother Adam. He's definitely worth adding in NL-only leagues if he's not owned already, but beyond that, take a wait-and-see approach as he gets his first real shot at regular playing time.



Ken Griffey Jr. to White Sox: Junior's uneventful tenure in Cincinnati comes to a close as he finally gets dealt to a contender. It's a shame he's no longer an elite player and no more than a third or fourth fantasy outfielder at best, but there's a chance a pennant race and the opportunity to play centerfield again gives his bat a little extra life for the next two months. The deal also means less playing time for the fading Paul Konerko as Nick Swisher moves from center to first base.

Ivan Rodriguez to Yankeees: We've seen Pudge change addresses a few times before with no problem, and the relocation to New York's powerful lineup shouldn't affect him much. While no longer a top-level fantasy catcher, his near-.300 average is more than adequate, and he's right on target for the same kind of numbers we've seen from him the past few years in Detroit. Nothing to worry about here.

Kyle Farnsworth to Tigers: Detroit had to upgrade the back end of its bullpen with Todd Jones faltering in the closer's role, replacement Fernando Rodney following in his footsteps and Joel Zumaya being an injury risk. Farnsworth's struggles in big spots are well-documented, but the fact remains he's a strikeout machine (averaging a K per inning this year) and could see save opportunities before long.

Mark Teixeira to Angels: Big Tex's move to L.A. means the Angels finallly have a serious hitter to plant in the middle of their lineup and give Vlad Guererro some help. Teixeira is a notorious second-half player, and we should see a slightly better average from him down the stretch to go with those home runs.

Casey Kotchman to Braves: Kotchman, one of the young talents the Halos have been hesitant to part with the past few years, will step in as Atlanta's everyday first baseman, and though he's a decent player, his limitations as a power hitter make him no more than a middle-tier first baseman in mixed leagues.