Spring Preview: New York Yankees

TAMPA - Rain washed out my visit to New York Yankees spring training practice Saturday, although that didn't stop a few hundred pinstriped fans from loitering around George Steinbrenner Field to perhaps get a glimpse of one of their heroes from under an umbrella.

There might be a little less tension around Tampa and back in the Bronx this year with the Yanks having claimed their 27th world title in 2009. But New York is primed to make a run at No. 28 this year, thanks to plenty of Yankee superstars worthy of your fantasy consideration in 2010.

BREAKOUT PLAYERS: The Yanks weren't afraid to do some major tweaking to their championship roster, most notably staying goodbye to left fielder and World Series Game 4 star Johnny Damon over the offseason. His departure creates an opportunity for two new faces to have big years in 2010: New left fielder Curtis Granderson and DH Nick Johnson, back for his second tour of duty with N.Y. There have been whispers of Granderson's diminished defensive abilities and loud sirens signalling his ineffectiveness against left-handed pitching (.183 vs. southpaws in 2009), but he did also jack a career-high 30 homers last year, and he could easily duplicate that thanks to a swing that's tailor-made for the new Yankee Stadium's friendly right-field porch.

Meanwhile, there's a chance Johnson could take Damon's No. 2 spot in the batting order, and you can't tell me he wouldn't be excited to bat behind Derek Jeter and in front of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez after spending the past few years in the MLB wasteland of Washington, D.C. Johnson's plate discipline (career OBP: .402) make him a great fit for that spot in the Yanks' lineup, and the opportunity to DH after years in the NL should allow the injury-hampered Johnson to stay in the game.

BUYER BEWARE: Jorge Posada has to eventually break down, and though he's shown no warning signs yet, the man is 38 years old and will be behind the plate yet again for New York. In many ways he's the surest thing at the position this side of Joe Mauer if he performs up to his level of consistency, but one of these days Father Time will catch up with him (pun intended), and some fantasy owners are going to get burned. Is this the year?

ETC: A year removed from hip surgery, Rodriguez is still a fantasy beast and and a mid-first-rounder. ... Little reason to worry about Jeter, Teixeira, Robinson Cano or CC Sabathia. You know what kind of quality you're getting there. ... Javier Vazquez, another player making his second tour of duty in the Bronx, is intriguing. Coming off arguably his best season, his ERA is sure to take a hit with the move back to the AL East, where he once failed. But the lowered expectations of a No. 4 starter spot and the likely increase in run support he'll get in New York should help. So I don't really know what to expect. ... The battle for New York's No. 5 starter spot is one to watch, not just because of who wins but also who loses. If it's really a race between Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, the loser will still have value as arguably one of the top setup men in baseball. ... Mariano Rivera is still a worry-free draft choice at closer. Pick him and pencil yourself in for an easy 35 saves and no headaches. ... Brett Gardner is the Yanks' top stolen base threat, swiping 26 in just 284 plate appearances last year. He stands to get regular playing time with Melky Cabrera and Damon out of the picture and could be a 40-steal source without killing you in batting average (.270 in 2009).

Warning signs for young pitchers

Prepping for fantasy baseball season? It's never too early, you know, especially with that magical time of year unfolding here in sunny Florida and out in Arizona.

As you begin to consider who will make up your fantasy squad this year, Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci offers a very helpful guide to young pitchers who may be at risk of injury or ineffectiveness. The venerable baseball scribe identifies those hurlers who could suffer from what he's coined the "Verducci Effect," a breakdown that occurs after pitching too many innings too soon.

It's just a guide, of course, but among those at most risk: the Yankees' Joba Chamberlain, the Reds' Homer Bailey and Rick Porcello of the Tigers. Just something to think about as you start setting your big board for the draft.

Joba (almost) goes the distance

Those who've been calling for Joba Chamberlain to pitch the eighth inning for the Yankees got their wish last night, but not how they expected.

Chamberlain, a favorite topic of sports media talking heads, lasted a career-high eight innings Monday night in the Yankees' 5-2 win over the Indians (And also made a heck of a play - see video). He needed only 106 pitches to make it through eight and hand the ball to closer Mariano Rivera, a plan the Yanks would ideally stick to every time he takes the mound. But they've treated young Joba's arm like a vintage sportscar, only to be used sparingly and without putting too many miles on it. Chamberlain won't always be able to breeze through eight innings in an easy 106 pitches like Monday. But if he can begin to work deeper into games and be more efficient, the speculation of him moving back to the bullpen (which the Yanks have given no indication they'll do this year) will quiet down.

That's a good thing for anyone who has him on their fantasy roster, except if you're in a league that counts holds and you're desperate for help there. Joba is much more valuable as an effective starter than a lights-out setup man. If he's capable of more outings like Monday's, you're looking at a pretty nice No. 3 fantasy starter.

Joba's fantasy outlook

SARASOTA, Fla. - Joba Chamberlain has been a popular fantasy pick this year, going somewhere around the 10th-12th rounds in many leagues. That's a little surprising for a No. 5 starter, except when you consider hey, he's a Yankee and a bit of a sensation - from his college phenom days to his compelling relationship with his polio-stricken father to the "Joba Rules" to his off-field, um, activities. So what's his deal for fantasy?

I had a front-row seat Tuesday at Ed Smith Stadium as Chamberlain made his final start of the spring against the Cincinnati Reds. He pitched into the sixth inning, allowing five hits and two runs and reportedly reaching up to 96 mph with his fastball (they don't display the radar gun readings at Ed Smith). He walked three and struck out six.

It's been a pretty successful spring for Joba - 3.60 ERA, eight runs and 20 hits allowed in 20 innings - and the Yankees are adamant about keeping him in the fifth-starter role throughout the year despite his past success as a reliever. There are some legit concerns, however. He's got just two pro seasons on his resume and hasn't pitched more than about 100 innings in either of them. That leads me to believe Chamberlain's going to hit a wall at some point in the second half of the season. The real question is whether the Yanks will be tempted to shift Joba back to the bullpen as Mariano Rivera's setup man - especially if the team is out of the playoff picture or the Damaso Marte/Brian Bruney bridge to Rivera collapses.

The bottom line is Joba's going to have value, but you might want to use him as trade bait in the second half. I'm penciling him in for about 12 wins and more than a strikeout an inning (as his career trends would indicate), assuming he remains in the rotation all season. But I do think New York will have to limit his workload at some point, either by removing him early from games or skipping some turns in the rotation.

Ultimately I believe Joba will be Rivera's heir as closer, but that's another story. If you can get him as a No. 3 or 4 fantasy starter this year, don't hesitate.

This week's column: Class of 2008

This week I'm taking an in-depth look at the MLB rookies you need to know, from Yankees phenom Joba Chamberlain to Bradenton's Chris Perez to Rays to pick David Price.

You can read all about them here or in Sunday's Herald sports section.