Kazmir coming back

Scott Kazmir's coming back this weekend, the Herald's Roger Mooney reports. Excited?

I'm not sure how to feel, honestly. I expected big things from the Rays lefty this year. Lots of strikeouts and a bunch of wins for the defending AL champions. But it didn't happen. He just didn't look right at the start of the year, but I still thought he'd straighten out. I swung a deal for him in late April straight up for Bobby Abreu. Then he proceeded to really tank before getting sent to the DL with a "quadriceps injury." Whether or not the injury was serious, it seemed like the Rays really just wanted him to go on a rehab assignment and fix his mechanics. And he has, and he's gotten his velocity back up, too.

We'll have to see if Kaz is really back to form. I'm not activating him against the Marlins this weekend. I want to see him cut down the walks and start blowing his fastball by some hitters the way he used to, and in the process whittle down that 7.69 ERA. If he can do that, he becomes a serious buy-low candidate, because the potential is still there.

Talkin' trades

I get asked what I think about fantasy trades all the time. I always have to start my answer with the same preface: "Well, without knowing your whole roster or your team needs, here's what I think ...."

That being said, my pal Sean asked me today what I thought of this deal: Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki for Hanley Ramirez. My response was this: If you can spare the steals, do it in a heartbeat.

Turns out he'd be the guy giving up Braun and Tulo, so it was a no-go. But if I was the guy dealing Hanley, I'd be all over it. Sure, he's a beast at shortstop, and you'd be parting with a huge pile of stolen bases in the deal. But even if Ramirez hit 40 homers this year, you're looking at a minimum of 60 from the other two guys. Tulowitzki's probably a bit undervalued, but with him recovering nicely from last year's injury-plagued season, I can foresee him returning to his 2007 form - which would make him a top-5 fantasy shortstop, just a peg below the elite guys like Ramirez and Jose Reyes. Then add in the hefty average and minimum of 30 homers you're bound to get from Braun, and the deal's a winner.

Anyway, I pulled off a deal of my own the other day: I shipped Bobby Abreu for Scott Kazmir. I had a serious lack of pitching with Brandon Webb on the DL and Francisco Liriano and Max Scherzer not meeting my expectations. I was in a pretty good place with stolen bases and have a decent crop of outfielders (Alex Rios, Jason Bay, Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron), so I decided to part with Abreu. With eight steals already I figure he's probably already coming up on a third of his season total (30-25-22 the past three years); he's hitting .375 and hasn't topped .300 in a season since 2004; and he hasn't hit a homer yet, which is a little disconcerting. I belive Abreu will have a fine season, just not THAT fine a season at age 35.

I've always been a Kazmir fan, and while he does have his flaws (way too many pitches per start), he's another guy who's a bit undervalued because of some slight injury problems last year. If Kaz can stay healthy for 35 starts, the potential's there for a sub-4.00 ERA, 200 Ks and 15 W's. And that's exactly what my team could use.