National nightmare: Strasburg needs Tommy John surgery

Stephen Strasburg likely needs Tommy John surgery.

That's a terrible blow to the Washington Nationals' franchise pitcher and to the game of baseball, who counted Strasburg as its most electrifying rookie in recent memory.

It's also a killer for fantasy owners who were counting on Strasburg to be their savior during the stretch run of the season. And even if you aren't close to contending for a championship in 2010, you may have at least been looking forward to keeping Strasburg and building your squad around him next year. Unfortunately, TJ surgery comes with at least a 12- to 18-month recovery process, meaning Strasburg won't be available until 2012.

We saw red flags when the phenom had a DL stint a month ago with shoulder inflammation. Then he came back, made three starts, got pulled from Saturday's game against Philadelphia, and the rest is history. If you were able to capitalize on all the hype and trade Strasburg at his peak value, good for you. If not, I'm sorry.

All we're left with is some impressive 2010 stats (5-3, 2.91 ERA, 92 strikeouts in 68 innings) and the hope that he'll someday realize his potential. Tommy John surgery isn't a death sentence for a career - current aces Chris Carpenter, Francisco Liriano and Josh Johnson have all made successful recoveries in recent years. But all those comebacks took time, and that's what Strasburg needs right now.

Good luck, kid.

Photo by The Associated Press

Second-half reinforcements

Looking for an arm or two to bolster your pitching staff for the second half? Here are a few friendly suggestions:

Brett Anderson has been phenomenal this year - whenever he's available to pitch, that is. The Oakland ace has compiled just 30.2 innings this year because of lingering elbow tendinitis, but oh, what a memorable 30.2 innings they were (22 strikeouts, 4 walks). Anderson's currently on a rehab assignment, and while he's still rounding back into form (4 innings, 7 hits in a Rookie League start Thursday), you may be able to scoop him up off waivers if he's been forgotten in your league. Lots of upside here if that elbow's healed.

Edinson Volquez is another overlooked, injured hurler who demands your attention. The former Tommy John patient hasn't pitched in the majors for a year and a half, but his minor-league rehab has gone well this year (4-0, 1.45 ERA in six starts), and he's due to make his return Saturday vs. Colorado. Be prepared for some bumps - witness Francisco Liriano's rocky 2009 comeback from Tommy John surgery, among other horror stories - but Volquez's strikeout and win potential with the Reds can't be overlooked.

Perhaps you're looking for a breakout rookie pitcher? Try San Francisco's Madison Bumgarner, a 2007 first-rounder and owner of a career 34-6 record, 2.00 ERA and 4.09 K/BB ratio in his minor league career. Since his call-up at the end of June, the lefty is sporting a 2.57 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 21 strikeouts against five walks. Still plenty of room on the bandwagon.

If relievers are more your speed, why not take a shot at Boston setup man Daniel Bard? The flamethrower has been one of the league's top setup men (1.90 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, league-leading 19 holds), which along with his strikeouts (45) make him valuable enough as it is. Add in the fact that he's the Red Sox closer of the future and has already vultured a few saves off the volatile Jonathan Papelbon and Bard gets even more intriguing.


Photo by The Associated Press

Francisco Liriano: Steal of the year?

Francisco Liriano was the AL pitcher of the month for April.

He may end up being the steal of the year in fantasy.

Liriano has sparkled so far for the Twins - 4-0, 1.50 ERA, 36 Ks and 13 BBs in 36 innings. This came on the heels of the left-hander absolutely dominating winter league ball and throwing his name in the hat as a fantasy sleeper for 2010.

We all remember Liriano from that superb 2006, when he looked like the second coming of Johan Santana in a Twins uniform. Unfortunately, we also remember his 2007, which was cut short by major elbow surgery, and his ill-fated 2008 campaign (5-13, 5.80 ERA).

But now, Liriano seems to have regained that magical form as he puts the elbow troubles behind him. His velocity is back up. He hasn't allowed a homer yet this year after serving up 21 longballs in 136 innings last season. He's holding opponents to a .206 average after they raked him at a .279 clip last year. And he's getting almost twice as many ground outs as flyouts this season, a ratio similar to his breakout 2006 but one which withered the past two years.

I believe Liriano's health and consistency will hold up for the long haul this time. If you rolled the dice on him in your draft or picked him up on the waiver wire in the early going, give yourself a pat on the back and don't think about trading him at this point.


Photo by The Associated Press

Talkin' trades

I get asked what I think about fantasy trades all the time. I always have to start my answer with the same preface: "Well, without knowing your whole roster or your team needs, here's what I think ...."

That being said, my pal Sean asked me today what I thought of this deal: Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki for Hanley Ramirez. My response was this: If you can spare the steals, do it in a heartbeat.

Turns out he'd be the guy giving up Braun and Tulo, so it was a no-go. But if I was the guy dealing Hanley, I'd be all over it. Sure, he's a beast at shortstop, and you'd be parting with a huge pile of stolen bases in the deal. But even if Ramirez hit 40 homers this year, you're looking at a minimum of 60 from the other two guys. Tulowitzki's probably a bit undervalued, but with him recovering nicely from last year's injury-plagued season, I can foresee him returning to his 2007 form - which would make him a top-5 fantasy shortstop, just a peg below the elite guys like Ramirez and Jose Reyes. Then add in the hefty average and minimum of 30 homers you're bound to get from Braun, and the deal's a winner.

Anyway, I pulled off a deal of my own the other day: I shipped Bobby Abreu for Scott Kazmir. I had a serious lack of pitching with Brandon Webb on the DL and Francisco Liriano and Max Scherzer not meeting my expectations. I was in a pretty good place with stolen bases and have a decent crop of outfielders (Alex Rios, Jason Bay, Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron), so I decided to part with Abreu. With eight steals already I figure he's probably already coming up on a third of his season total (30-25-22 the past three years); he's hitting .375 and hasn't topped .300 in a season since 2004; and he hasn't hit a homer yet, which is a little disconcerting. I belive Abreu will have a fine season, just not THAT fine a season at age 35.

I've always been a Kazmir fan, and while he does have his flaws (way too many pitches per start), he's another guy who's a bit undervalued because of some slight injury problems last year. If Kaz can stay healthy for 35 starts, the potential's there for a sub-4.00 ERA, 200 Ks and 15 W's. And that's exactly what my team could use.

The great keeper debate

So I'm in a keeper league where I can protect up to five players entering this year's draft. I pretty much hate my team, mostly because it finished in the middle of the pack next last season and because I unfortunately don't really have a no-brainer, elite, can't-give-up-under-any-circumstance guy on my roster. It's not terrible though, and I do have some talent I'd like to hold onto.

Here's the roster I finished the season with last year:

C A.J. Pierzynski
1B Ryan Howard
2B Dan Uggla
SS Miguel Tejada
3B Jorge Cantu
OF Jacoby Ellsbury
OF Delmon Young
OF Lance Berkman
UTIL Jason Bay
UTIL Joey Votto
BENCH Jason Giambi
BENCH Pablo Sandoval
BENCH Cameron Maybin
DL Travis Hafner

P Josh Beckett
P Aaron Harang
P Daisuke Matsuzaka
P Francisco Liriano
P Bobby Jenks
P Mike Gonzalez
P J.P. Howell
P Fernando Rodney
P Javier Vazquez
P Chad Qualls
P Ben Sheets
DL Billy Wagner

So right off the bat: I want no part of Hafner or Wagner whatsoever. No thanks. You killed me last year. Get lost.

Pierzynski, Tejada, Cantu, Giambi, Harang, Gonzalez, Howell, Rodney, Vazquez, Qualls, Sheets ... no. Some worthwhile players there, but not keeper material.

I think Young will have the kind of year he should have had last year (which is why I drafted him in the first place) ... but not a keeper.

I don't belive in keeping a closer, so Jenks is out.

Votto's a nice player, but I've got at least two better first basemen already on the roster. Next.

Sandoval and Maybin are intriguing, up-and-coming players, which is why I picked them up at the end of last season when my team had already tanked ... but I can probably redraft them.

So that leaves me with eight legit choices: Howard, Uggla, Ellsbury, Berkman, Bay, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Liriano.

It's a 10-team league, and if everyone protects five guys, I should be keeping top-50-caliber players, which I believe all those guys are capable of being in 2009. It's just a matter of who I want to build a team around, and if I lean toward offense or pitching.

If I want to tackle it by positional scarcity, Uggla is the only guy who fits the bill as a second baseman. His power potential places him in the upper tier at 2B, but he doesn't run a lick, which hurts. He's probably somewhere around sixth in the 2B rankings - doesn't sound like keeper material to me.

Howard, on the other hand ... we know about his faults (no average, no speed), but he's a potential HR champ. He's in.

Berkman's probably the other safe bet. He's getting up there in age, last year seemed like a career year, and another 18 steals seems like a longshot ... but he's been a consistent producer across the board, and he's still got Carlos Lee batting behind him. Plug him into the utility spot.

So now I've got two big mashers, but what about speed? Ellsbury fits the bill. How many players are capable of 50 steals in 2009? Not that many. He won't give me a ton of power, but he won't embarrass himself at the plate like some other speed-only guys. Let's do it.

Now we come to Bay ... do I keep him too, which leaves me room for only one pitcher? The guy fills the stat sheet, seems to be built to play in Fenway, should be in his prime ... OK, I'm sold.

So now we come to the pitchers, Beckett, Dice-K, Liriano. Dice is nice, but the walks really drive me nuts sometimes. Becks, even with the injury concerns and coming off a "down" year, can strike out just as many without the drama. But the guy that really gets my blood pumping is Liriano, who who showed me that Tommy John surgery is a distant memory with his stellar post-All Star break performance (6-1, 2.47 ERA, 60 to 19 K:BB). Would he go in the top 50 in a regular start-from-scratch draft? Is he a bona fide No. 1 fantasy starter? Probably not. But he offers the most upside of any of the guys I've got, so why not take a chance?

There you have it: Howard, Berkman, Ellsbury, Bay, Liriano. My five keepers - unless I change my mind. Thoughts?

Liriano's time will come

Former Twins phenom Francisco Liriano is tearing it up in Triple-A right now, leaving his agent to wonder: what does his client have to do to get a call-up?

Lirinao, who missed all of last season after Tommy John surgery, had a very rocky start to this year at the major league level (0-3, 11.32 ERA) but has been excellent at Triple-A Rochester, particularly in his past four starts (4-0. 0.32). The problem is the Twins haven't had a spot for him in their rotation, as youngsters Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins have all pitched surprisingly well, and veteran Livan Hernandez has, um, eaten innings.

I'm not sure if Minnesota is trying to delay a big-time paycheck for Liriano as his agent suggests. I think they're just being cautious after his serious injury, and they're also not desperate for him in the rotation right now, even given Hernandez's recent struggles. Liriano's going to pitch again this year in the big leagues, I have no doubt ... it's just a matter of when. He's got more upside than probably anybody on the Twins' roster, provided he can regain the velocity and repertoire of pitches he showed before the injury. That's why I'm keeping him on my bench and just waiting for the inevitable.

Don't forget about Liriano

You remember Francisco Liriano, right? If you played fantasy baseball in 2006, how could you not?

Liriano was a rookie phenom for the Minnesota Twins that year, going 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA. But an elbow injury and Tommy John surgery sidelined him all of last season, robbing fantasy owners of one of the best young lefties the game has produced in a decade.

Now, here's the good news: Liriano is back, and tells MLB.com he feels fine and will be ready to go in 2008. He's more than a year removed from his surgery, typically the benchmark for recovery, and the Tommy John recovery rate is now said to be around 90 percent or so.

Will he have the same dominating repertoire of pitches? Will his fastball still reach 97 mph? Will he be ready for a spot in the Twins' major league rotation on Opening Day (Lord knows they need him, especially if Johan Santana does get traded) or will he begin the year in Triple-A? We'll be watching Liriano closely in spring training, and you should do the same. A healthy Liriano should probably be among the top 25 pitchers drafted this year and has the potential to be a fantasy top 10.