Oswalt's value rises in Philly

Roy Oswalt is now a Philadelphia Phillie as another big-name pitcher has been traded to a contender.

Oswalt's enjoyed a fine 2010 so far. To steal a few telling stats from ESPN's Jayson Stark:

He ranks among the league leaders in quality starts (15 - as many as Ubaldo Jimenez), WHIP (1.11 - better than Chris Carpenter), opponent OPS (.652 - better than Tim Lincecum) and strikeout/walk ratio (3.53 - better than all but a half-dozen pitchers in the league). ...

He's allowing a lower opponent batting average (.229), on-base percentage (.280) and OPS (.652) than he has in any season in his fabulous career. His strikeout ratio (8.4 per 9 IP) is his best since his rookie year.

Yeah, Oswalt's been pretty good. The only thing lacking, from a fantasy perspective: Wins. He's 6-12, which is mostly a function of playing for the lowly Astros. Granted, the Phillies have had their offensive problems this year, but Oswalt should get a big boost in run support this summer. Philly is eighth in the league in runs with 481 - or 117 more than 28th-ranked Houston.

Now, there have been whispers that the 32-year-old was perhaps feeling his age - or that he was just disinterested in pitching for Houston - in recent weeks. But I believe you'll see the same old Oswalt now that he's in the thick of a pennant race. And that's a good thing for his fantasy owners.

T.O. to Bengals; should you care?

Remember this?



And this?



And this?



Of course you do. That's the reason there's so much attention on the Bengals signing a 36-year-old wide receiver who had 800 receiving yards and 5 TDs last year.

Those numbers aren't really popcorn-worthy, and Terrell Owens is no longer the dominating fantasy force he once was. But when you consider he managed the aforementioned stats last year with some of the stiffs Buffalo trotted out at QB throwing him the ball, plus the fact that he had 10 receptions of 25 yards or longer last year (and the Bengals as a team had just 12), there's reason to believe T.O. could find his niche in Cincinnati.

Will he be a fantasy No. 1 or 2 WR this year? No. Will he have a hard time getting consistent targets in a crowded Bengals receiving corps that includes Chad Ochocinco, Antonio Bryant, rookie Jordan Shipley and others? Probably. Will he ruin the team chemistry with a tantrum or other distraction? Quite possibly.

But will Owens benefit from having Carson Palmer at QB and produce enough big plays to be a borderline No. 3 fantasy receiver? I might be willing to make that gamble on draft day.

Dan Haren's escape from the desert

Another ace is on the move.

This time Dan Haren is leaving behind the hapless Diamondbacks for the Angels as they try to become relevant again in the AL West chase. How does the weekend deal affect Haren's fantasy fortunes?

Haren's been a huge disappointment thanks to a bloated ERA (4.60) and the whopping 23 homers he's allowed in 2010. But let's focus on the positives here: He's tied with Josh Johnson for first in the in NL in strikeouts (141), six behind Jered Weaver for the league lead. He's walked only 29 batters all year. He'll also have the benefit of a better bullpen in Anaheim than the mess in the desert. And it's not like Haren doesn't have experience in the harder-hitting American League; he went 43-34 with a 3.64 from 2005-07 with the A's.

I expect Haren's performance to improve now that he's pitching in more-forgiving Angels Stadium and for a contending team. If you're an owner - or a potential owner - the trade is welcome news.


Photo by The Associated Press

Keeper debate: Adam Jones vs. Billy Butler

My old pal Sean-Dogg recently hit me up for some fantasy advice, as he's been known to do over the years. He's in a pretty serious keeper league and he's faced with a big conundrum: He's got to give up Alex Rodriguez at the end of the year, so he's trying to entertain trade offers while his team is basically out of contention this season.

His decision right now essential comes down to choosing between Orioles OF Adam Jones and some spare parts, or a package that includes Royals 1B Billy Butler. Neither of those guys is going to replace the overall production of an A-Rod anytime soon, but they're both quality keeper prospects who are relatively young (Jones turns 25 in a few weeks; Butler just turned 24 in April) and have room to grow. So who's a better keeper pick?

To start, we should note that the skill sets are quite different. Butler's not known for being fleet of foot (1 career SB in 4 seasons); Jones has swiped 10 bags in each of the past two years (though he has just 3 so far in 2010). Butler's a career .297 hitter with an average currently hovering at .318; Jones seems to have topped out at around .270. Butler's been a much more patient hitter, as evidenced by his 41/37 K/BB ratio this year; Jones has only walked 10 times in 2010 compared to 79 strikeouts. Both have shown 20-homer power (Butler had 21 last year, Jones 19).

This is a pretty tough call. As I told the Dogg, I want to give Butler the edge because he's younger than Jones and yet he's already proven more at the major league level. The ability to hit .300 for a season is a impressive skill, and last year's .301/21/93 stat line speaks volumes about Butler's talents. However, while the average is for real, I wonder if he can improve on those power numbers and jump up to the class of the 30- and 40-homer first basemen that dominate a deep position.

Jones' potential as a five-category contributor are intriguing, but they're still just that, potential. Until I see better results and an improved approach at the plate and more aggression on the basepaths, I have to declare Butler the better keeper prospect by a hair.

Hope that helps, buddy.


Photos by The Associated Press

Podcast: Fantasy All-Stars

Podcast partner Jason Dill and I took a closer look at the first-half fantasy all-stars in our Fantasy Focus podcast. Crank it up and let the debate begin.

Second-half reinforcements

Looking for an arm or two to bolster your pitching staff for the second half? Here are a few friendly suggestions:

Brett Anderson has been phenomenal this year - whenever he's available to pitch, that is. The Oakland ace has compiled just 30.2 innings this year because of lingering elbow tendinitis, but oh, what a memorable 30.2 innings they were (22 strikeouts, 4 walks). Anderson's currently on a rehab assignment, and while he's still rounding back into form (4 innings, 7 hits in a Rookie League start Thursday), you may be able to scoop him up off waivers if he's been forgotten in your league. Lots of upside here if that elbow's healed.

Edinson Volquez is another overlooked, injured hurler who demands your attention. The former Tommy John patient hasn't pitched in the majors for a year and a half, but his minor-league rehab has gone well this year (4-0, 1.45 ERA in six starts), and he's due to make his return Saturday vs. Colorado. Be prepared for some bumps - witness Francisco Liriano's rocky 2009 comeback from Tommy John surgery, among other horror stories - but Volquez's strikeout and win potential with the Reds can't be overlooked.

Perhaps you're looking for a breakout rookie pitcher? Try San Francisco's Madison Bumgarner, a 2007 first-rounder and owner of a career 34-6 record, 2.00 ERA and 4.09 K/BB ratio in his minor league career. Since his call-up at the end of June, the lefty is sporting a 2.57 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 21 strikeouts against five walks. Still plenty of room on the bandwagon.

If relievers are more your speed, why not take a shot at Boston setup man Daniel Bard? The flamethrower has been one of the league's top setup men (1.90 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, league-leading 19 holds), which along with his strikeouts (45) make him valuable enough as it is. Add in the fact that he's the Red Sox closer of the future and has already vultured a few saves off the volatile Jonathan Papelbon and Bard gets even more intriguing.


Photo by The Associated Press

First-half Fantasy All-Stars

Since we've got a few days without a meaningful baseball game (unless you buy that "this time it counts!" nonsense from the MLB All-Star Game), it's a great time to take a step back and evaluate the first half of the fantasy season.

As always, there's no fan voting, no managerial or player choices, no stuffing the ballots and no popularity contests here. Just the cold, hard stats to tell us who are the 2010 Fantasy All-Stars so far.

CATCHER

Joe Mauer and Brian McCann are bigger names, but it's journeyman Miguel Olivo who leads all catchers in RBIs and is in the top three in runs, homers, steals and average. Sure, a lot of that is due to the Coors Field factor - Olivo's hitting .400 at home, .215 on the road - but he's still been the best backstop this year.

FIRST BASE

What a turnaround for Miguel Cabrera. He entered the season as a big question mark because of last year's drinking incident and now stands as a legit Triple Crown contender thanks to a .346 average, 22 homers and 77 RBIs, all of which lead the majors.

SHORTSTOP

For all the discussion about Hanley Ramirez loafing it in the outfield, he hasn't been a slouch at the plate, where he's in the top five in each of the big five categories among shortstops.

SECOND BASE

Robinson Cano might not steal bases (2), but he does everything else exceptionally well - .336 average, 16 HR, 58 RBIs, 61 R. Sure, it helps that fantasy stalwarts Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia are hurt, but Robbie was already outpacing them before their injuries.

THIRD BASE

Remember when everybody was upset about David Wright's power outage (10 HRs) last year? He's got 14 so far this year, along with the most RBIs (65) in the NL. He's also got the most steals (14) among third-sackers and is hitting .314.

OUTFIELD

The underappreciated Carl Crawford is putting together a career year with .321 average, 31 steals, 70 runs scored (tops in the big leagues). Good timing for the soon-to-be free agent.

Josh Hamilton has put a down 2009 in his rearview mirror. The fully healthy Texas slugger has 22 homers, 64 RBIs, 59 runs scored and is hitting a robust .346 with 1.015 OPS.

Corey Hart is a surprising third choice in the outfield, but the guy does have 21 homers and 65 RBIs after all. Not bad for somebody who started the year as a platoon player for the Brewers.

UTILITY

Rangers DH Vladimir Guerrero has enjoyed quite a resurgence in the Lone Star State - 20 HRs, 75 RBIs, .319 average, which place him among the league leaders. So much for being washed up ...

STARTING PITCHER

Anybody predict Ubaldo Jimenez to be the league's best pitcher in 2010? Not only does the Rockies ace have a league-high 15 wins, but his miniscule 2.20 ERA and 1.05 WHIP have been helping fantasy squads all year, and his 113 Ks, while fewer than some other aces, are certainly enough to help you stay competitive.

RELIEF PITCHER
There's no clear-cut answer at closer. Carlos Marmol leads in strikeouts (78). Joakim Soria leads in saves (25). Jose Valverde is tops in ERA (0.92). Mariano Rivera has the best WHIP (0.62). But I'm going with a guy who's competitive in all those categories, Heath Bell of the Padres (24 saves, 1.88 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 50 Ks, 4 wins) by a hair over Billy Wagner, Rafael Soriano, Neftali Feliz and a few other worthy candidates.