2009 QB RANKINGS

**Updated 8-19

1. Drew Brees
2. Tom Brady
3. Peyton Manning
4. Aaron Rodgers
5. Philip Rivers
6. Kurt Warner
7. Matt Ryan
8. Donovan McNabb
9. Tony Romo
10. Matt Schaub
11. Matt Cassel
12. Jay Cutler
13. Carson Palmer
14. Eli Manning
15. Kyle Orton
16. Ben Roethlisberger
17. Matt Hasselbeck
18. Brett Favre
19. Trent Edwards
20. David Garrard
21. Jason Campbell
22. Chad Pennington
23. Jake Delhomme
24. Shaun Hill
25. Joe Flacco
26. JaMarcus Russell
27. Marc Bulger
28. Brady Quinn
29. Mark Sanchez
30. Byron Leftwich

NOTES: As we've already discussed, Brees gets the nod as the top overall QB by a hair over Brady and Manning. Those three form the upper tier of the list ...

Just below them are two young guns, Rodgers and Rivers, who I think are capable of being the top fantasy QB if none of the other three big guys really has a standout year. But I think one of them will, and my guess is Brees. ...

Warner obviously has the talent and the amazing receiving corps to be a top-flight fantasy QB, but I worry that his deal with the devil could expire yet again at age 38. If you're drafting him, please get a trustworthy backup QB (or Matt Leinart) ...

There's a dropoff after Ryan and McNabb, who are helped by offseason acquisitions in the passing game. ...

Romo has to be devalued a bit after losing Terrell Owens as a target. He'll still throw it a bunch, though. ...

I view Schaub, Cassel, Cutler, Palmer, and Orton similarly: all have big upside, but each could blow up in your face, for a variety of reasons. ...

Hasselbeck will show you he has something left, but there will be hiccups along the way. ... Edwards will be a good spot starter. He and T.O. will have a few monster games when the matchups dictate, but at other times, when the weather's bad in Buffalo especially, he'll be useless. ...

Is this the year Campbell takes The Leap? I'd give him a shot, but only if I was pairing him with a rock-steady guy like Brees or Manning as my No. 1. Campbell could easily become droppable a few weeks in. ...

Bulger took a big tumble - remember when he was a top-five fantasy QB? I'm not going down that road. ...

In cases where one of the lower-ranked guys doesn't win a starting job, you can pretty much substitute with the guy who beats them out - Derek Anderson for Quinn, Kellen Clemens for Sanchez, etc. - and keep them ranked right where they're at. If an NFL team doesn't have a clear-cut starter at this point, the eventual starter's fantasy prospects are tied much more to the team around them than their individual talent. In other words, the Vikings QB, whoever it is, might be worth a late-round flier simply because he'll be throwing to Percy Harvin and working behind a good offensive line.

The great QB debate

Who's the top QB to target in fantasy this year? For me, the choice comes down to three: Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

Let's start with old reliable, Mr. Manning. Has he had a disappointing season yet? He's never missed a start in 11 seasons. He's never thrown for fewer than 3,700 yards or 26 TDs in a season either. Now, Manning is a long way from his amazing 49-TD season in 2004, the record-breaking Reggie Wayne-Marvin Harrison duo is no more, and he's dealing with the most significant coaching changes of his NFL career. At age 33, Peyton doesn't offer the same kind of upside he once did - but at the same time, there's probably no safer pick in all of fantasy. He checks in at No. 3 on this year's QB rankings.

If you're more of a gambler, Brady might be your pick. Some people want to pretend like last year's devastating Week 1 knee injury never happened and Brady will pick up where he left off with 2007's 50-TD campaign. I'm not sure I can go with that, and I'd have to think long and hard before making Brady my QB. We've seen other quarterbacks - Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb - struggle to come back from similar ACL injuries, but they were much more mobile than Brady to begin with. Carson Palmer also suffered a similar injury in 2005 but bounced back nicely the following season. Can Brady do the same? He's had a full year to recover, and his strong point has never been his legs anyway. Can he return to the same record-setting, fantasy-MVP level he was at in '07? Maybe. He's got just as many receiving targets - Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Joey Galloway, Greg Lewis - a similar running back committee and and the same mastermind, Bill Belichick, running the offense. There may not be a QB with more fantasy potential, but if that knee isn't fully healed, taking Brady with a first-round pick could devastate your team. He's No. 2 on our list.

That leaves Brees as this year's top fantasy QB. He's led the league in pass attempts the past two seasons, and although the Saints might like to be a little more balanced on offense, Sean Payton's not afraid to air it out, meaning Brees has a legit shot at hitting the 5,000-yard mark and maybe setting the single-season passing record. With a complete arsenal - Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Jeremy Shockey, Billy Miller, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas - to spread the ball around to, Brees could finish head and shoulders above the rest of the league's QBs.

Audio: Hear me talk fantasy sports with Doobie

In case you missed me on the airwaves Monday, click below to hear me talk fantasy football with Ryan "Doobie" Boyd on the "Talk Sports With Doobie" radio program on 1490-AM WWPR in Bradenton.

Hear me on the radio today

You can hear me live on the radio today, chatting about fantasy football on the "Talk Sports with Doobie" show, 2:45 p.m. on 1490-AM in Bradenton or online here.

Phillies settle for Lee

The Phillies couldn't work out a long-rumored deal for Roy Halladay, so they settled for Cliff Lee, the second-best pitcher on the trade market. How does the move affect Lee's fantasy fortunes? Could this move mirror last year's deadline deal that sent CC Sabathia to Milwaukee? The Indians traded the reigning Cy Young winner to the National League in that one and it worked out pretty well for CC owners (11-2, 1.65 ERA down the stretch as a Brewer).

It's hard to say Lee will enjoy that kind of dominance, but he should get a boost from facing weaker NL lineups. Lee owns a 3.18 career ERA against the NL, compared to a 4.13 vs. the AL. He does move to a much more hitter-friendly stadium - Citizens Bank Park is in the top 10 in runs and homers allowed per game, while Progressive Field is in the bottom three in runs and dead last in homers surrendered. But also consider Lee is receiving some of the lowest run support in the AL (4.32 runs per nine innings), while three of Philly's starters - Jamie Moyer (6.75), Cole Hamels (6.41) and J.A. Happ (5.35) - rank in the top 20 in the NL in run support. In short, the Phillies' offense is much better than the Indians', which should only help Lee's stats in the next two months. Lee owners should be extremely pleased with this deal.

Photo by The Associated Press

Switching gears to the gridiron

The dog days of summer are here, and for those of us whose fantasy baseball teams have fallen out of contention, it can seem like the season drags on endlessly.

The good news: Football is right around the corner.

Fantasy football's always been the lifeblood of this blog. Sure, baseball's fun for the first few months, but the daily grind can take its toll, especially when your team's been stuck in ninth place like mine for what seems an eternity. I'll admit I've been slacking lately on the baseball posts, for a variety of reasons - vacation, hectic times at my "other" job and the general suckiness of my team. But it's my pledge to you now that I'll be posting more regularly as we get ready for football season.

Don't worry, baseball fanatics: I'll still be blogging on America's pastime when the mood strikes me, especially if we see any big moves as the MLB trade deadline approaches. But from here on out the primary focus will be on the gridiron, and I've got lots of thoughts. Is Adrian Peterson a lock for the No. 1 overall pick? How long should you wait to draft a QB this year? Is Jay Cutler better off as a Bear? Can Terrell Owens still be a fantasy force in Buffalo? I'll be dropping some knowledge on these and many other topics in the coming weeks, as well as unveiling my position-by-position rankings, plus some more surprises. So stay tuned.

2009 Fantasy All-Stars

There is no online fan-balloting for my fantasy All-Star team.

No one-player-from-every-team rule. No sentimental favorites or hometown heroes or feel-good stories.

My fantasy All-Star squad is all about the cold, hard numbers — just like the game itself. There’s little room for subjectivity or emotions getting in the way.

I’m simply recognizing those players who have made the biggest statistical impacts at their respective positions. Basically, if my all-stars were actually assembled as someone’s fantasy team, they would have dominated all competition in the first half of the season and would be running away with the league title.

So let’s do this:

CATCHER

The Minnesota Twins’ Joe Mauer is making a legitimate run at .400, but as if that weren’t enough, he’s already hit a career-high 14 home runs. Mauer cost more than other catchers in your draft, but he’s paying you back tenfold.

FIRST BASE

Albert Pujols has been off the charts: A league-leading 31 homers and 82 RBIs, an average above .330 and 10 steals, his most since 2005. Hats off to fantasy’s Most Valuable Player in the first half.

SECOND BASE

Ian Kinsler gets the nod despite a batting average that’s plunged into the low .260s — a disappointment after last year’s .319 mark. But everything else has been just fine for the Texas Ranger: he’s among the league leaders at the position in homers (19), runs (56) , RBIs (51) and steals (16).

THIRD BASE

In perhaps the most surprising choice, I’m giving the hot corner honors to the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Mark Reynolds, who leads all third basemen in homers, is second in RBIs and fourth in steals. He’ll never be a batting champ (.271 average through Friday), but the rest of the numbers don’t lie.

SHORTSTOP

The Florida Marlins’ Hanley Ramirez is the only repeat from last year’s squad, despite the fact he’s registered fewer steals (14) than Derek Jeter and Willie Bloomquist. Han-Ram’s made up for that, however, by leading all everyday shortstops in homers and RBIs and ranking second at the position in runs and average. We’ll take that.

OUTFIELD

Raul Ibanez, fantasy’s biggest surprise of 2009 by far, was having an MVP-caliber year (.312, 22 homers, 59 RBIs, 51 runs) in his first season with the Philadelphia Phillies before hurting his groin. Can he keep up that pace in the second half?

Jason Bay has blossomed in Boston, laying the groundwork for a career season and threatening to lead the league in RBIs (70 through Friday).

Carl Crawford’s already reached the 40-steal mark but has also mixed in power (eight homers) and an awesome average (.320 at last check) for the Tampa Bay Rays.

STARTING PITCHER

Roy Halladay? Johan Santana? Tim Lincecum? Josh Beckett? All worthy candidates. But if I had to choose just one starter, it’s Kansas City Royals ace Zack Greinke, a guy who was drafted later or cost less than all the aforementioned star hurlers. Greinke’s got as many wins as anyone else in the league, kept his ERA under 2.00, and walked just 18 batters while striking out 114. Remarkable.

RELIEF PITCHER

Here’s another choice no one could have predicted: Heath Bell of the San Diego Padres gets the call over heavyweights such as Joe Nathan, Francisco Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon. Bell’s got more saves than all those guys and can hang with any of those revered closers in strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. No one said a fantasy All-Star has to be an actual star.

Photo by The Associated Press