2010 NFL Draft's best fantasy prospects

Now that the dust has settled from ESPN'S three-day NFL Draft extravaganza (is that Alicia Keys/Jay-Z song stuck in anybody else's head?), there's a rush to grade every team's picks. While it's way too early to truly assess a draft class - generally it takes three years to really see how one pans out - there's no need to wait for some fantasy analysis.

So which skill players taken over the weekend in NYC are ready to contribute to your fantasy team in 2010?

QBs get all the headlines, but they rarely become fantasy factors in their first year. I'm not too interested in having Sam Bradford or Jimmy Cluasen on my squad as rookies. Colt McCoy probably won't even suit up in 2010. And we've already dissected Tim Tebow's fantasy prospects in this space. I'll pass.

I'd already tabbed C.J. Spiller as the most NFL-ready fantasy contributor heading into the draft, but unfortunately he landed in Buffalo, where there isn't much of an offensive line to speak of, the QB situation is unsettled to say the least, and Spiller will have to compete with Fred Jackson and Marhsawn Lynch for touches (assuming both stick around). Spiller's one to watch, but being a Bill is a bit of a bummer.

Jahvid Best has it a little better in Detroit, where his main backfield competition will come from Kevin Smith, who's still recovering from major knee surgery. The speedy Best can make an instant impact, provided the Lions can figure out how to block for him.

Ryan Matthews is the first-round RB who may have the easiest path to fantasy relevance, as he was drafted by San Diego to be LaDainian Tomlinson's successor and where Darren Sproles is still just a change-of-pace back. The Fresno State product will get first crack at carrying the rock in a powerful Chargers offense.

Also, don't forget about Heisman finalist Toby Gerhart, who becomes a potential handcuff for Vikings starter Adrian Peterson as he tries to fill the departed Chester Taylor's shoes.

Among wideouts, the two most intriguing, fantasy-wise, are Dez Bryant in Dallas and Golden Tate in Seattle. The Cowboys' selection of Bryant is pretty much an admission that the Roy Williams experiment has been a failure, and if the rookie can earn enough playing time and find some chemistry with Tony Romo, good things could be in store. Same goes for Tate, who could become an important piece of Pete Carroll's offense with the Seahawks.

I'm also interested to see Arrelious Benn in a Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniform. The kid's probably been NFL-ready since his freshman year at Illinois, and he'll have every opportunity to step in and be the go-to receiver young Bucs QB Josh Freeman sorely needs.

Demaryius Thomas also has a shot at immediate playing time for Josh McDaniels in Denver, but the Broncos' QB situation isn't quite ideal.

One more 2010 draftee to keep an eye on: Taylor Price in New England. Price flew under the radar at Ohio University, but the Patriots have a way of making unheralded players into stars.

Is Tim Tebow a fantasy prospect?

To put it simply: No.

Not in 2010, anyway.

But can he be, eventually?

It's possible.

Even casual fans know Tim Tebow is not a polished product. If you've seen him running Urban Meyer's offense in Gainesville, you know it bears little resemblance to today's NFL. He can't step in right away in Week 1 and be an effective pro starter and fantasy force the way Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco were two seasons ago.

Even the Denver Broncos brass knows that, though they probably won't admit it. Tebow's going to need some tutelage, and they believe head coach Josh McDaniels is the guy for the job. He worked wonders with a little-known sixth-rounder (Tom Brady) who became a Hall of Famer under his watch, and then McDaniels made a guy who hadn't started a game since high school (Matt Cassel) into a legitimate starting QB.

Tebow will be given a shot to earn the starting job in 2010, and while he's probably not ready to beat out incumbent Kyle Orton or Brady Quinn this summer, neither of those guys are exactly entrenched starters who can never be toppled. Tebow will spend next year running Denver's "Wild Horses" package - their version of the wildcat - while learning the QB position. That still probably won't be enough to make Tebow fantasy-relevant, but McDaniels and the Broncos are going to give him every chance to make that the case in 2011.

So, no, even the most diehard Gator backers don't want Tebow on their fantasy roster next season.

But after that, it's certainly possible.


- Photo by The Associated Press

Believe in McGehee

Casey McGehee hit a very quiet 16 homers last year for the Brewers but was still ignored in a lot of mixed-league drafts in 2010. But since the start of the season, he's been hard not to notice.

McGehee was carrying a .400 batting average last weekend (he's currently "cooled off" to .368) and had blasted four homers, or three more than Brewer bud Prince Fielder. He's got a 1.152 OPS, has an equal number of walks and strikeouts (seven) and has knocked in a run in eight of his past 10 games. And he's in the top eight in the NL in almost all relevant hitting statistics (BA, HR, RBI, SLG, OPS).

In other words, he's on fire.

Obviously, McGehee's numbers are due for a little bit of regression. He was a career .279/.331/.409 hitter in the minors - not bad, but not exactly Albert Pujols either. Still, he's got a prime spot in a potent Brewers lineup (perhaps you saw the 20-spot they put on the Pirates on Thursday?), and he qualifies at both 2B and 3B in fantasy.

Given how lightly regarded McGehee was in the preseason - he sat on the waiver wire in my 10-team mixed league until I got him on April 8 - he may end up being one of the steals of the season.


Photo by The Associated Press

'Silly Little Game' a great little film

Just got done watching ESPN's latst 30 for 30 documentary, "Silly Little Game," about the birth of "rotisserie" baseball, the forerunner of all fantasy sports.

The documentary, directed by Adam Kurland and Lucas Jensen, traces the origins of the game we love back to La Rotisserie Francaise, a New York City restaurant circa 1979 where a group of self-described geeks set in motion what would become a $4 billion industry enjoyed by millions.

"Silly Little Game" hilariously recreates those landmark early moments, from Rotisserie League founder Dan Okrent's grand unveiling of his invention to fantasy's "founding fathers" holding the first draft (complete with the reenactors donning Thomas Jefferson-inspired colonial garb). The founders' recollections of that first draft are fascinating and all-too-familiar to today's fantasy players - from a bunch of guys (and one gal) crunching numbers on cheat sheets, to the unending search for a diamond in the rough ("I'll take Neil Allen" ... "Who's Neil Allen?).

The current generation of fantasy leaguers will be left aghast at explanations of how these fantasy OGs kept stats BY HAND and faxed updated league standings to one another. Yet it's amazing how little the essential facets of the game have changed in 30 years. Okrent's creation was near-perfect from its inception - from the draft and roster formats to the invention of the WHIP statistic to help better gauge pitcher's performances.

Kurland and Jensen paint the original Rotisserie leaguers as tragic figures, unable to fully cash in on their invention as it gained popularity and exploded with the Internet age. Yet their passion for (or as they readily admit, obsession with) the game that so many of us now enjoy are evident on screen. "Silly Little Game" offers both an enjoyable look back at fantasy's roots and some insights into what makes it so addictive.

If you missed the orginal broadcast, go here for encore showtimes.

What's up with Zack Greinke?

Anyone else been burned by Zack Greinke in 2010?

The Kansas City Royals ace certainly hasnn't shown last year's Cy Young Award form - 0-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in three stars so far.

Some further disturbing facts:

- He allowed only four earned runs in his first eight starts last year; he's given up seven in three starts in 2010.

- He walked five batters in Friday's loss to Minnesota; he didn't walk that many in a game all of last season.

- Opposing batters have a .764 OPS against him; last year that number was .611.

And then there's this quote:

"I just think my mind's not right on how to pitch because every game I've been able to throw the ball close to where I want. I'm just not getting the job done."

Doesn't excactly make me feel much better about my investment - especially one who's dealt with some off-field mental issues in the recent past.

However, there is some good news. Opposing hitters' batting average on balls in play is .321, a rather high number (last year it was .307). And also: It's only been three starts! No way am I ready to write this kid off after such a sublime season.

Be patient. No need to panic.

Yet.

- Photo by The Associated Press

Happy birthday, fantasy baseball

Fantasy baseball was born 30 years ago this week.

To celebrate, ESPN is offering a bunch of retrospective goodies, including next week's 30 for 30 documentary, "Silly Little Game" (8 p.m. Tuesday, ESPN), a look back at the birth of the first "rotisserie" league in a New York City restaurant.

They've also posted on ESPN.com a terriffic year-by-year look at the best fantasy hitters and pitchers of the past 30 years. You better believe Albert Pujols makes it more than a few times, but it's also funny to see blasts from the past like Eric Gagne, Kevin Brown and Ellis Burks make the cut.

Fun stuff.

Wideouts bring baggage to AFC East

The AFC East just got a lot more interesting: The Jets and Dolphins have each added a troubled WR (isn't that an oxymoron by now?) to their squads in the past week.

We begin with Santonio Holmes, traded from Pittsburgh to New York for a fifth-round pick. There's no denying his talent - everyone who saw his game-winning catch in Super Bowl XLIII (above) will agree - but let's just say his character leaves something to be desired. He's fresh off an assault charge and he'll be suspended for four weeks in 2010 for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

The Jets were willing to take a chance on Holmes, a 1,000-yard receiver last year with the Steelers who will provide second-year QB Mark Sanchez another option along with wideouts Jerricho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards and TE Dustin Keller. While the trade makes Sanchez a viable fantasy No. 2 QB, it hurts Holmes' value. The Jets are a run-first team, and all those pass-catchers, plus the four-game suspension, make it unlikely Holmes will repeat his 1,000-yard performance. Consider him a No. 3 WR next year.

Oh, and one guy benefits in Pittsburgh: WR Mike Wallace, who should step right in and take up the slack behind No. 1 Hines Ward.

Now we move to Miami, where mercurial wideout Brandon Marshall was sent for two second-rounders. Marshall's troubles in Denver were nearly endless, but so were his talents as a dynamic possession receiver - see his three straight 100-catch seasons, plus last year's 21-catch, 200-yard, two-TD showing in Week 14.

The Dolphins provide Marshall with a number of advantages: A fresh start, a promising young QB in Chad Henne and a clear opportunity to be the No. 1 WR (sorry, Ted Ginn). I expect Marshall to be a good citizen and a top-10 WR in 2010, maybe even top-five.