Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Derrick Ward sent packing

Hope you didn't draft Derrick Ward this year.

At least not if you figured he'd be a factor with the Tampa Bay Bucs, who cut Ward on Tuesday, one year after signing him to a four-year, $17.5 million contract. It's also two years after he rushed for more than 1,000 yards with the New York Giants.

The writing was on the wall for Ward, who failed to impress last year or this preseason and whose release will only cost the Bucs about $3 million this year. He was outplayed in 2010 by Kareem Huggins, a 24-year-old Hofstra product who didn't get a carry last year as a rookie with the Bucs but who should be Cadillac Williams' backup on Week 1. And if you know anything about Caddy's injury history, you know that Huggins is just a snapped tendon away from being Tampa Bay's starting tailback. Both Williams and Huggins should be moved up on your draft board accordingly.


As for Ward, I suppose he's still worth keeping tabs on, depending on where he ends up, as the season progresses. Granted, he's 30 and came to Bucs camp out of shape ... but Ward doesn't have a lot of mileage on him for a back his age after spending much of his career as a practice-squad player/third-stringer. He proved what he can do as a change-of-pace back when paired with Brandon Jacobs in '07. I could see him being a fantasy factor later this season if he lands in the right situation, but for now he's not worth a roster spot in all but the deepest of leagues.

Photo by The Associated Press

Draft recap: How my team looks

We held the 5th annual Newsroom Fantasy League draft over the weekend at Buffalo Wild Wings (highly recommend their draft party deal, by the way). We expanded from 10 to 12 teams this year, and by random draw I ended up with the 10th overall pick. I'm also the defending champion.

We have to carry 2 QBs, 4 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs, 2 Ks and 2 D/ST. Regular scoring rules and a snake draft.

Here's how my squad turned out, with round of selection in parentheses and commentary below:

JERSEY SURE

QB Tony Romo (3)
QB Chad Henne (11)

RB Ryan Grant (2)
RB Felix Jones (4)
RB Marion Barber (6)
RB Donald Brown (8)

WR Randy Moss (1)
WR Hakeem Nicks (5)
WR Mike Wallace (7)
WR Mike Williams (9)

TE Owen Daniels (10)
TE John Carlson (14)

K Ryan Longwell (13)
K Matt Bryant (16)

DEF Steelers (12)
DEF Browns (15)


Chose Randy Moss over Steven Jackson with my first pick at No. 10 overall. The running backs were flying off the board and S-Jax was probably a good value at that point, but I just don't have a good feeling about him this year.

Wasn't planning to have so many Cowboys on my team, but that's the way it worked out. I had to go RB with my second pick (Ryan Grant) and then sweat it out until the third round to grab the last elite QB (Tony Romo) left. That made Felix Jones a little more appealing to me as my second RB, and Marion Barber was the best remaining RB in Round 6. I'm very aware of the Cowboys' offensive struggles this preseason, thank you.

I could tell I was a little higher on my WRs than the rest of the league. I got Hakeem Nicks in the fifth round and Mike Wallace in the seventh, and I believe they can both produce like solid WR2s.

Mike Williams of the Bucs was kind of a sleeper in the ninth round. Ditto for Donald Brown in the eighth as my RB4 - he was the one remaining back that offered the most upside if his team's No. 1 (Joseph Addai) were to miss any time.

A little concerned about my No. 1 TE (Owen Daniels) since he's coming off a torn ACL and he could be questionable for Week 1 of the regular season. But I decided to wait on a TE until the 10th round after some of the others I was targeting (Brent Celek, Zach Miller) were swiped from me. But I still think Daniels offers huge upside if he can put the injury behind him, and I feel like I have a solid, top-15 backup (John Carlson) as insurance.

I have Ryan Longwell as the No. 2 kicker on my board but I believe he was the fifth one taken. Matt Bryant is just a flier since he'll kick in a dome in Atlanta for a decent offense.

Defenses are a crapshoot, but the Steelers are usually a safe pick. I don't particularly like the Browns, but I do like the idea of Josh Cribbs returning kicks.

Saturday, August 28, 2010

8/28 Sleeper of the Day: Arian Foster

RB ARIAN FOSTER, Texans

I see this guy as an ideal RB3. He's got the potential to be a steal, but if he falls flat on his face it won't absolutely kill you.

Foster, a rookie in 2009, didn't get a carry until mid-December, and it wasn't until a few games later that he really got rolling. Then he couldn't be stopped. He rumbled for 97 yards and a TD on 19 carries in Week 16 against Miami, then sliced up the Patriots for 119 yards and 2 TDs on 20 carries in Week 17.

The Texans had been searching for a ground game all year behind a disappointing rotation of Chris Brown, Ryan Moats and major fantasy bust Steve Slaton, and Foster was arguably their most effective back, the only one to average more than 4 yards a carry. Yet Houston decided to go out and draft big Ben Tate from Auburn in the second round to compete for a starting position.

The good news for Foster is Tate suffered a season-ending ankle injury this preseason, so the job is his to lose. He's shown he can compete at the NFL level, but since those big performances came during the traditional fantasy playoffs and/or championship week last year, a lot of owners might not have noticed them. Couple that with the heavy preseason touting of Tate by a lot of publications, and you a have a recipe for a fantasy sleeper. Start looking for Foster in the fifth or sixth round.

Photo by The Associated Press

Friday, August 27, 2010

8/27 Bust of the Day: Chad Ochocinco



I'm torn over everybody's favorite reality star. On one hand, it's almost hard to take him seriously as a football player because of all the Twittering and self-promoting off the field and silliness on it. He's also 32 years old and appears to be past his prime, when he was catching 90-plus passes a year with regularity.

On the other hand, Ocho did have 72 receptions, 1,047 yards and 9 TDs in 2009, numbers that are nothing to sniff at and which represented a bounce-back year for him. The flip side is that 2008 was a real clunker - 53 catches, 540 yards (10.2 yards a reception) and  just 4 TDs.

So what can we expect this year? Ocho's still the Bengals' No. 1 option, but his supporting cast is much improved with the additions of Terrell Owens, Antonio Bryant and rookie Jordan Shipley. Can QB Carson Palmer keep them all happy? Will Palmer's arm hold up all year? Or will Cincinnati lean on workhorse back Cedric Benson?

My gut tells me Ochocinco still has some life left in him, his rapport with Palmer will still be there, and the addition of T.O., while a potential headache-inducer, will also loosen up some coverages. I think he'll have fantasy value. But I believe people will overpay for him on draft day because of his name and past reputation alone. He's being selected, on average, as the 15th WR off the board in ESPN leagues right now, which sounds OK, but I wouldn't go any higher than that. I could see younger wideouts like Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace, Pierre Garcon or Michael Crabtree outperforming him, or at least equaling his best-case-scenario stats, while coming at a lower price.

Ochocinco's a low-end No. 2 for me, and a risky one at that.

National nightmare: Strasburg needs Tommy John surgery

Stephen Strasburg likely needs Tommy John surgery.

That's a terrible blow to the Washington Nationals' franchise pitcher and to the game of baseball, who counted Strasburg as its most electrifying rookie in recent memory.

It's also a killer for fantasy owners who were counting on Strasburg to be their savior during the stretch run of the season. And even if you aren't close to contending for a championship in 2010, you may have at least been looking forward to keeping Strasburg and building your squad around him next year. Unfortunately, TJ surgery comes with at least a 12- to 18-month recovery process, meaning Strasburg won't be available until 2012.

We saw red flags when the phenom had a DL stint a month ago with shoulder inflammation. Then he came back, made three starts, got pulled from Saturday's game against Philadelphia, and the rest is history. If you were able to capitalize on all the hype and trade Strasburg at his peak value, good for you. If not, I'm sorry.

All we're left with is some impressive 2010 stats (5-3, 2.91 ERA, 92 strikeouts in 68 innings) and the hope that he'll someday realize his potential. Tommy John surgery isn't a death sentence for a career - current aces Chris Carpenter, Francisco Liriano and Josh Johnson have all made successful recoveries in recent years. But all those comebacks took time, and that's what Strasburg needs right now.

Good luck, kid.

Photo by The Associated Press

2010 TE Rankings

The tight end position is deeper than ever. Long gone are the days of praying for Shannon Sharpe or getting stuck with somebody who spends most of his time blocking.

Sure, you had Dallas Clark (100 catches, 1,106 yards) and Vernon Davis (13 TDs) putting up WR-caliber numbers last year, but if you miss out on the top couple guys, all is not lost. Check this out: In 2009, eight TEs had 800 or more yards, and 11 had six or more TDs. In 2008, there were five and five, respectively. In 2007? Four and seven. Feel me?

The TE ranks are loaded, so you should adjust your draft strategy accordingly. You can grab one of the top-tier guys starting around Round 5 if the big WRs are off the board, or you can wait out a run on TEs not suffer that much of a drop-off.

As you peruse my rankings you'll notice a few things:

I put young guns Jermichael Finley and Brent Celek in the top five, at the expense of stalwarts like Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten. I just think they both have more upside, but I'd be content with just about everyone in the top 11 as my starter.

It'll be interesting to see how the Chris Cooley/Fred Davis pass distribution works out with Donovan McNabb taking over as QB in Washington. Those guys could hurt each other, or one could emerge as a top-10 fantasy TE. We'll just have to wait and see.

You'll notice I'm not too high on Greg Olsen, who I tabbed as one of my busts a few weeks back. Mike Martz won't do any favors for his fantasy value.

Remember when Jeremy Shockey was among the cream of the crop? If the guy could stay off the trainer's table, he might still be there. But even if he can't play 16 games, he'll get enough good looks in New Orleans to be a solid fantasy backup.

Looking for a really deep sleeper? How about Jared Cook in Tennessee? He had a rough rookie year (9 catches, ankle injury, residence in coaches' doghouse), but he's 6-foot-5 and 242 pounds with 4.4 speed, for gosh sakes, he's only got Bo Scaife ahead of him on the Titans depth chart. He could do something.

1. Antonio Gates
2. Dallas Clark
3. Jermichael Finley
4. Brent Celek
5. Vernon Davis
6. Tony Gonzalez
7. Jason Witten
8. Zach Miller
9. Visanthe Shiancoe
10. Kellen Winslow II
11. Owen Daniels
12. Chris Cooley
13. Heath Miller
14. John Carlson
15. Kevin Boss
16. Greg Olsen
17. Dustin Keller
18. Jeremy Shockey
19. Tony Scheffler
20. Fred Davis
21. Anthony Fasano
22. Todd Heap
23. Marcedes Lewis
24. Ben Watson
25. Bo Scaife
26. Jermaine Gresham
27. Brandon Pettigrew
28. Aaron Hernandez
29. Jared Cook
30. Shawn Nelson



Photo by The Associated Press

Thursday, August 26, 2010

8/26 Sleeper of the Day: Mike Bell

RB MIKE BELL, Eagles

Here's an offseason move that flew under the radar. Bell signed a 1-year, $1.7 million deal with Philly after compiling 654 yards and 5 TDs for the Super Bowl champion Saints. He began the year as a feature back in New Orleans, running for 143 yards on 28 carries in Week 1, but after that he settled into a rotation with Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush.

Meanwhile, in Philadelphia last year, Brian Westbrook got hurt, rookie LeSean McCoy had some growing pains, and the Eagles were forced to give fullback Leonard Weaver a career-high 70 carries in an attempt to solve their short-yardage woes.

Fast-forward a year and Westbrook's gone, McCoy's the No. 1 back and Bell was brought in to back him up and handle some of those short-yardage/goal-line duties. With McCoy still getting his feet wet in the NFL and largely untested Kevin Kolb taking over at QB, I can foresee Bell getting a good amount of work this year, especially in the red zone. At 220 pounds he's a power runner and a good complement to McCoy's skill set, and though the Eagles aren't a run-heavy team, Bell will have his fair share of opportunity. He'll make a sneaky good fill-out-your-roster RB at the end of your draft and a great insurance policy for McCoy owners.